Viva Murillo!
The fantasy football playoffs less like the NFL playoffs than the NHL playoffs, becuase In hockey, seedings mean nothing. Usually, you can't tell the favorites from the underdogs once the puck drops. And that's how you need to approach your upcoming fantasy matchup.
It doesn't matter if you got in as a 7-7 team on an obscure tiebreaker. It doesn't matter if you were starting DeMarco Murray, Greg Jennings and Matt Hasselbeck. You can still win your league. You can beat that 13-1 behemoth by double digits...and they know it. But you can also blow it, of course. Plenty of teams find themselves in perfect position to score an upset, and end up bounced out of the first round.
There are many paths to victory, but here are some tried and true directions to defeat:
- Be rigid about who to start. You know that weird advice about dancing with the ones that brought you, or something equally ridiculous? Ignore that. If you snuck into the playoffs, you're not dealing with a roster of supermen. You have movable objects and resistible forces, and you should treat them accordingly. Be willing to shake up your lineup, work the waiver wire, bench "starters" and do whatever it takes to squeeze a few extra points out of your lineup. Take out some paper and a pen (assuming you still have those antiques lying around) and build your lineup from scratch. You'll not only have a better grasp of who you want playing in this critical game, but you'll have more confidence in who you actually start.
- Start any old kicker and defense. You want to lose by two or three points? Ignore kicker and defense. It's trendy and cool, and you look like a sophisticated fantasy player by pretending they're not important. You don't want to be seen as fretting over those silly positions, do you?
Well, you do if you want a better chance of winning your game. There are six dome games this week, and four more that should be played in nice weather. Plenty of mediocre defenses have some good-looking matchups in week 15 as well, and some are probably available on your waiver wire. Swallow your pride and study the best special teams options this weekend.
- Get too cute with your lineup. Some owner go so far to avoid being rigid with their lineup that they outsmart themselves at every turn. In fair-weather games starting in November, your starter's opponent allows just 3.2 fantasy points for receivers over the past four years. Meanwhile a waiver wire prospect has averaged 12.6 fantasy points in dome games within three weeks of federal holidays...including with the last three teams that cut him. You have to consider making that switch, right?
Look, make your case for each position, but acknowledge consistent performers. if you made the playoffs, you probably have one or two of those guys. Nobody gets a free ride into the starting lineup, but give them credit for being good players, too. You can't go too far one way or the other with your strategy.
- Don't pay attention to the unusual schedule. This is just like any other week, right? Sure, except for the Saturday night game, of course. Now there are two games before Sunday. How does that affect your league? Is the waiver wire impacted? You'd better be very clear as to whether there are roster freezes or other limitations. Assuming (and being wrong) is a good way to ruin your chance at an upset.
Ignoring the schedule has other ramifications, too. If you have a huge lead (or huge deficit) after the first two games, you can use that to guide you in other decisions. Do you need the guy with huge upside, or is a steady performer going to get the job done for you? You might be given a sneak peek at your opponent's score before you have to submit your own...or you might know how a couple of guys performed for you before making other lineup decisions. Take advantage of that, and manage your risks accordingly. Good luck this week.
Do you have any special strategies for week 15? Share them below.
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