Ian Allan
Remember back in August, all that talk about offenses being set back by the lockout? How we could expect sluggish football, and defenses would be ahead of offenses for the start of the year?
It hasn’t played out that way.
Instead, it’s been the opposite. Offenses seem to have benefited from the truncated offseason. As if it’s maybe harder to play defense now, with all of the multiple-receiver sets and formations that must be dealt with.
Defenses also have been set back by rules changes, of course. They don’t let safeties clobber receivers anymore. But I’m talking about a different issue. I’m talking about offenses in September versus offenses in November.
Consider these numbers:
Passing yards per game
260 in first four weeks
240 in last four weeks
Teams, on average, are averaging 20 fewer passing yards per game now versus where they were at back at the start of the season. (And by “last four weeks”, I actually mean “last four games” – I’ve moved a couple of teams to account for bye weeks).
TD passes per game
1.53 in first four weeks
1.48 in last four weeks
Only a slight different here. 196 in the first 128 games of the season. Down to 190 in the last 128 games.
Scoring (points per game)
22.8 in first four weeks
21.9 in last four weeks
Scoring is down about a point per game. Weather could have a slight impact, but I think it’s driven more by defenses adjusting and getting better.
Rushing yards per game
109 in first four weeks
115 in last four weeks
Slight increase here. Weather related? Or more due to offensive lines jelling and play calling?
TD runs per game
.73 in first four weeks
.80 in last four weeks
Also a slight increase here. 94 rushing TDs in the first 128 games of the season; 103 in the last 128.
I think the numbers you’ve seen the last four weeks will be more indicative of how teams will perform in the remaining three weeks of the season.
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Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Dec. 15 at 01:05 PM
Perhaps injuries to skill position guys makes offenses more conservative? Guys like Andre and Peterson and Cutler and Forte getting hurt. I realize defenders get hurt too, but...
Posted by Jack Vallee | Dec. 16 at 10:24 AM
Isn't this what usually happens every year due to poorer weather at the end of the season?
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Dec. 17 at 09:21 PM
@Jack Vallee: I don't think that's right. In the 2009-2010 seasons, teams averaged 234 passing yards per game in the first half of the season. In the second halves of those seasons, they averaged 234.