Ian Allan
There’s a reason the web was invented – or maybe shouldn’t have been. Now, there’s an outlet for all that information that isn’t important enough to be printed in a magazine or newspaper.
In the spirit of the WWW and power nerds everywhere, I bring you strength-of-schedule numbers – for the last 10 years. After spending two days analyzing strength of schedule and its impact – both on the NFL and in the fantasy world – I figured I’d take a few minutes and put together some all-encompassing numers from my new toy (I’ve now got a database that includes all of the strength-of-schedule figures since 1993 – both expected strength of schedule and actual strength of schedule.)
For the chart below, you’re looking at actual strength of schedule for the last 10 years – 2400 games for every team except Cleveland and Houston, which joined the league in 1999 and 2002. For each team, I’ve removed its own games, which is slightly different than how the NFL does it. The league, for example, shows New England’s opponents for last year as going 224-332. I instead show them at 224-216, figuring those teams would have had a winning record if they hadn’t played the Patriots. Without that statistical twist, teams with poor records get rewarded, making it seem like they played harder schedules.
When you add up all of the numbers from the last decade, the four teams from the NFC West show as having played the easiest schedules – a reflection of how bad that division has been. The Jets and Lions, meanwhile, have played the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, 1998-2007
Win Loss Tie Pct.
1117 1282 1 .466 Seattle
1119 1281 0 .466 Arizona
1140 1260 0 .475 St. Louis
1158 1242 0 .483 San Francisco
1161 1238 1 .484 Minnesota
1160 1237 3 .484 Carolina
1163 1237 0 .485 Pittsburgh
1165 1234 1 .486 Green Bay
1166 1231 3 .486 New Orleans
1174 1223 3 .490 Tampa Bay
1178 1222 0 .491 Dallas
1181 1219 0 .492 Atlanta
1182 1215 3 .493 Baltimore
1199 1200 1 .500 Jacksonville
1199 1200 1 .500 Tennessee
1202 1198 0 .501 San Diego
1203 1197 0 .501 Philadelphia
1208 1192 0 .503 Denver
1212 1187 1 .505 Chicago
1216 1184 0 .507 Kansas City
1218 1179 3 .508 Cincinnati
1228 1171 1 .512 NY Giants
1231 1169 0 .513 Washington
1231 1168 1 .513 Oakland
1235 1164 1 .515 New England
741 698 1 .515 Houston
1239 1160 1 .516 Indianapolis
1117 1040 3 .518 Cleveland
1243 1157 0 .518 Buffalo
1251 1149 0 .521 Miami
1253 1146 1 .522 Detroit
1261 1139 0 .525 NY Jets
—Ian Allan
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