Andy Richardson
There's a popular belief that wideouts break out in their third seasons in the league, and that was certainly true of Roddy White a year ago. White looked like a bust in his first two seasons, but was a legitimate No. 1 in 2007.
Based on some recent numbers, though, White's third-season emergence looks like a bit of an anomaly. Of late it appears that if wide receivers are going to amount to anything in the league, they'll prove it by their second seasons, not their third.
From 2002-2005, there were 52 wide receivers taken in the first three rounds of the draft. Of that group, 14 had posted 800-plus receiving yards or 7-plus TDs by their second seasons. Only 4 -- White, Ashley Lelie, Kevin Curtis and Michael Jenkins -- waited until their third seasons before hitting one of those totals (and in the case of Jenkins and Lelie, those look like flukes). Breakout seasons in their third year? How about the notion that in recent years, with few exceptions, if a guy doesn't break out by his second season, he probably never will.
Now look at the wideouts drafted in the first: three rounds in 2006, organized in descending order by their receiving yards a year ago:
Santonio Holmes 942, 8 TDs
Greg Jennings 920, 12 TDs
Derek Hagan 373, 2 TDs
Sinorice Moss 225, 0 TDs
Maurice Stovall 86, 1 TDs
Willie Reid 54, 0 TDs
Chad Jackson 0, 0 TDs
Travis Wilson 0, 0 TDs
Brandon Williams 0, 0 TDs
Holmes and Jennings, of course, come off breakout campaigns -- in their second seasons. Will any of the other players emerge in their third? It doesn't look good.
At a glance, then, it looks a lot more likely that the breakout wide receivers in 2008 won't be third-year players, but second-year guys. Here are your candidates -- and there are plenty of them -- from the first three rounds last year (organized by draft position). In some cases (bold), those players look like potential fantasy starters already.
Calvin Johnson, Lions
Ted Ginn Jr., Dolphins
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City
Robert Meachem, Saints
Craig Davis, Chargers
Anthony Gonzalez, Colts
Sidney Rice, Vikings
Dwayne Jarrett, Panthers
Steve Smith, Giants
Jacoby Jones, Texans
Yamon Figurs, Ravens
Laurent Robinson, Falcons
Jason Hill, 49ers
James Jones, Packers
Mike Walker, Jaguars
Paul Williams, Titans
Johnnie Lee Higgins, Raiders
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