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Rookie Runners: Eight is Enough?

Posted Apr. 30 at 01:10 PM

I've got a rookie draft coming up in my dynasty league in a couple of days, and I'm picking 9th overall. That's a bit of a concern, because I think there might be only eight rookie running backs I'm eager to own. Based on each player's talent and situation -- where they were drafted -- here are the eight:

1. Darren McFadden, Raiders. McFadden will be the top pick in virtually every rookie draft, and probably should be. He's got the most talent, he's going to be utilized in the most different ways, and nobody is seriously worried about him having to "wait his turn" to get work. Dominic Rhodes is gone, LaMont Jordan could soon be gone, and no one knows if Michael Bush can even play. Justin Fargas and McFadden should split the work right away, and the Raiders like to run a lot.

2. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers. Mendenhall will need another Willie Parker injury to put up big numbers in 2008, but three years from now I think he'll have proved to be one of the top two backs in this class. Plus he'll get the goal line work right away, in all likelihood, and he can catch, too.

3. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers. Will John Fox's frustrating loyalty to veterans now extend to DeAngelo Williams? I doubt it. Fox's job is on the line; he's got to feed the rock to Stewart. This will also be a committee, and Carolina's offense won't be as good as Pittsburgh's, but Stewart should be pretty good right away.

4. Kevin Smith, Lions. There's risk here; Matt Millen picked him. Still, Smith is a complete back playing on a team that wants to run the ball, and the only guy he has to beat out is Fantasy Index favorite Tatum Bell. In short, he'll be a very busy rookie.

5. Chris Johnson, Titans. Ran a 4.24 40 at the combine; the Titans took him in the first round. That's not enough to indicate he's going to be a solid pro -- and I have some doubts -- but it's enough that he's going to get the opportunity. Paired with LenDale White, Johnson will look even faster.

6. Matt Forte, Bears. Has to beat out Cedric Benson, of whom general manager Jerry Angelo just said "Maybe he's not the featured back we thought he'd be." At least Rex Grossman showed flashes of talent at one time, helping to explain why he's still starting. Benson doesn't have that excuse.

7. Felix Jones, Cowboys. Jones will be in a tandem with Marion Barber; he'll definitely play on passing downs and return kicks. As long as your league awards points for receptions, he should be pretty productive right away.

8. Ray Rice, Ravens. With a dozen other teams, Rice would be a lot higher on my board. As it is, the Rutgers workhorse should play on passing downs right away, and be ready to step in if Willis McGahee breaks down.

There are other rookie backs, of course, but these are the eight I like right now. And I'm drafting at 1.09.

Hope someone takes a quarterback, or maybe Jamaal Charles.

Readers' Comments

Posted by Eugene Hitt | Apr. 30 at 07:20 PM

How about RB Ryan Torain at #9. Not only was he drafted by the running back factory in Denver, but.... he has a one cut conduscive to the Shanahan prototype. I thin khe should be ranked higher than #9 on your list. How about Mike Hart at # 10? He was a productive runner at a bigtime program and considering Kenton Keith's legal problem's and Joe Addai's penchant for missing time, has the potential to make a splash this year. I thought you get paid to do this......

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Apr. 30 at 07:35 PM

There are a couple of reasons why I wouldn't take Torain. The first is that the deal with the Broncos is that the guy you expect to emerge is never the guy who does. Denver is just as likely to move Cecil Sapp to tailback (again) or come up with another undrafted guy in the preseason, just like Selvin Young. Torain probably has a 1 in 5 chance of leading the Broncos in rushing next year, maybe. (As an aside, the Denver running back factory hasn't had many great fantasy backs since they traded Clinton Portis away. Too much divvying up the work. Mike Anderson-Tatum Bell and Travis Henry-Selvin Young didn't win many fantasy titles the last couple of years. As for Mike Hart, sure, maybe he's Addai's backup this year. I don't think, though, that I'm going to use my top pick on a guy the Colts took a flier on at the bottom of the sixth round. Who runs a 4.7 40-yard-dash. But hey, I really hope one of the eight guys ahead of me loves these guys and takes them, that'd be great.

Posted by Joe Savitsky | Apr. 30 at 08:29 PM

1. Stewart - at the end of this year and after 3 years, he'll be the best back from this draft. 2. McFadden - the Raiders are a joke and that bothers me about his prospects. he also needs to run lower in the nfl. 3/4. Mendenhall/Forte - in a dynasty league, i'd take Mendenhall. in a seasonal, i'd take Forte because I think he'll play more as a rookie. 5. Felix Jones - I would not be shocked if he winds up posting better stats than McFadden over the next 5 years, especially with Marion Barber's contract situation. 6. Steve Slaton - he could be a sleeper with Alex Gibb and unimpressive competition. 7. Mike Hart - I'm surprised he didn't make the list. 8. Ray Rice - probably won't do much unless McGahee gets hurt. 9. Kevin Smith - I just don't see it, but he should have a chance to get carries. 10. Chris Johnson - I think the Titans forgot how to draft RB's the minute they moved to Tennessee

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