• 
• 
• 
• 

• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 
• 

Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

What do Mike Vick, Lindsay Lohan and Scarlett Johansson have in common?

Nothing, but my readership just quadrupled.

Check last week’s column for an intro, then below for the NFC.

ARIZONA

I wrote a couple of weeks ago that Edgerrin James wasn’t too old to play just yet, and I meant that. But if the line gets 15% better, chances are Edge will still be 5 or 10% worse. Bottom line: He’s still enough -- by plenty, I think -- to keep defenses honest and let the passing game do its thing. But he’s not much more than that for our purposes.

ATLANTA

Well, well, well. Is Jerious Norwood suddenly live for challenges? With Vick’s indictment proving to be a hot read even pitted against Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, and Warrick Dunn damn near arthritic, Norwood could wind up on something like half of all challenge rosters if things break right in August. But would he do anything once he got there? The early returns said yes: 633 yards on just 99 carries a year ago, a whopping 6.4 per. Then again, as of today the Falcons have Joey Harrington and nothing else to keep defenses from cheating against the run. So wait and see, I guess, but be ready to pounce if Daunte Culpepper lands here.

CAROLINA

Most RBBC situations around the NFL feature a most-of-the-time guy and a third-down-or-goal-line guy. Not Carolina; the Panthers have two .85 guys ... as in, DeAngelo Williams + DeShaun Foster = 1.70 good players, total. You can profit by owning either of them in any given week, but you won’t often know which one, and even if one gets hurt the other falls well shy of stardom.

CHICAGO

Maybe this is just me, but I see very little to like in Cedric Benson’s game. He isn’t fast and isn’t quick, his line isn’t fantastic and his quarterback isn’t capable of keeping any one of the 31 other defenses honest. This, too: The games the team wins will be 16-10 midway through the third quarter, and Lovie Smith will think getting Benson 15 more carries over the last 20 minutes is a good idea. Which means he’ll start out 17-for-81 but finish at 32-for-112 in his best game, killing your rushing average even as he helps elsewhere. Mix in the very likely bad luck that will offset Rex Grossman’s (and Robbie Gould’s) hot start a year ago, and that is help I don’t need.

DALLAS

As with the old saying about quarterbacks, two good options in real life = zero good options here. I’m not entirely sure that Julius Jones is a good option, actually, so I’ll leave Marion Barber in play in my head. But without a clear shot at working full-time, I give him a roughly 0 percent chance of matching his 16 total TDs from 2006. And at 850 combined yards, that means I pass. Call it a tentative pass.

DETROIT

My least favorite back of all time -- you try trading for a guy the week before he suddenly has a turf toe on each foot -- comes to play for the one coordinator who thinks least highly of the run. Tatum Bell: Serves you right. Kevin Jones: Something tells me I’d hate you, too, if I’d ever owned you.

GREEN BAY

Ahman Green was a relative late-bloomer out of Nebraska, too; at the very least, Brandon Jackson must be taken seriously heading into the preseason. But this team passed more than any other in 2006, and with Brett Favre flingin’ ’em for perhaps the last time, and the line still spotty, and the team talking like Vernand Morency is legitimate competition for Jackson ... I dunno. Seems like one factor too many shading a step in the wrong direction.

MINNESOTA

Adrian Peterson is three times the back Chester Taylor ever hoped to be. It is also crystal clear (at least to my way of thinking; I’ll give you that his full-time numbers were decent in 2006) that Taylor is best-suited to a third down role. To me that means Peterson is automatic behind a beastly offensive line, even with the very real possibility that Tarvaris Jackson will be the NFL’s worst quarterback this season.

NEW ORLEANS

Reggie Bush is the one committee guy I really want in 2007. My last set of projections bumped him to 14.0 carries and 4.5 catches per game, and at those numbers he should hit 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 10+ TDs. Factor in the standard 3 points per team win and that makes him a must in points games, and there’s hay to make (especially given his salaries) elsewhere, too. The key in Roto-style challenges is to avoid owning him with too many other big pass-catching backs. I’ll call him most-of-a-must for the time being, not quite a lock to make my teams.

Deuce McAllister may still see enough carries to clear 1,000 yards -- I say may -- but I’m done owning him until he and Bush split up. Just say that a player who does the things Reggie Bush can -- check his second half numbers (I mean from games 9 through 16, not quarters 3 and 4) if you got burned in the first half -- does not take a back seat for long.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Brandon Jacobs is still Brandon Jacobs -- bigger than he is good -- and Reuben Droughns is not suddenly Tiki Barber. No, thank you.

PHILADELPHIA

I always leave Brian Westbrook off of my initial rosters, then buy him when he starts to rip off 3-catches-for-78-yards efforts. Last year’s Week 7 performance at Tampa Bay -- which I did own, thankfully -- was one for all time: 13 carries for 101 yards, 7 catches for 113. There’s just no one else like him. Certainly not Ryan Moats; maybe not even Reggie Bush. Caveat emptor, though: If Kevin Curtis struggles in his new role as a semi-feature player, Westbrook’s receiving average is likely to tank, maybe by as much as a yard from last year’s 9.1 (which was itself down a yard from the year before).

SAN FRANCISCO

For the most part, your tougher decisions come in the AFC this year. But here’s the exception. There is little question that Gore’s 2006 numbers were worth his 2007 salaries, especially given the 5.4 rushing average over a full 312 carries. That smacks of all-world ability, and at 24 years old there’s at least the possibility that he can still get better. Remember that this is the player Hurricanes coaches swore was the best back they’d had all decade, Willis McGahee and even Clinton Portis included. And the talent around him keeps improving to boot. With all of that said, though, do you own Gore ahead of a less expensive Steven Jackson? Of course not. Ahead of a more expensive Larry Johnson, or a still more expensive LaDainian Tomlinson? Er ...

SEATTLE

What I wrote about the Seahawks as a team two weeks ago is doubly true for Alexander: This is the last gasp. He’s 30, he’s never been the most versatile player -- no hands and a certain taste for running through instead of around defenders -- and he showed last year that he can’t stay healthy forever. I’m more inclined to spend a high draft pick on him than to invest in challenges, where it’s just not true that you’ll reach a point where he’s the best option available. Too many younger studs at or around his salary range(s).

ST. LOUIS

Steven Jackson is the Larry Johnson of the NFC; you own him and ride him until his wheels come off. As with Johnson, of course, that bit about the wheels coming off may literally happen. But until then you’re looking at a pace for 2,000+ combined yards and as many as 20 touchdowns -- and unlike with Johnson, Jackson isn’t even fully priced just yet.

TAMPA BAY

Cadillac Williams has talent and -- I swear this is true, though I’m sure it’s hard to see outside of my native Tampa area -- heart. He lives and loves to play football. But three strikes are one too many (at least), and he has these three: (1) He’s now fully established, even in the NFL, as a nagging injuries guy. (2) His line, recent decent draft picks notwithstanding, stinks. (3) Jon Gruden shows more of the worst Mike Martz traits than even Martz does, bombing and bombing even when his personnel (Chris Simms and then Bruce Gradkowski primarily in ’06, Jeff Garcia more likely in ’07) bombs.

WASHINGTON

This is the opposite of the RBBC, the one place where everyone seems to believe a committee has formed but I think one back will carry the day. Clinton Portis will turn 26 on September 1. Think about that. And Al Saunders has gameplanned some of the greatest RB seasons in fantasy history -- you could look it up. Ladell Betts can’t stop what’s coming, and it’s coming at an injury discount after 2006. Own Portis or lose. To me.

We start to slog through the receivers next week; lots to say there, so I think I’ll break it up a little differently than AFC/NFC. Check back.

• Comments [0]

Readers' Comments

Add a Comment

Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.

To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.