Ian Allan
New England put up amazing numbers last year: 50 TD passes, 304 passing yards per game, a record 589 points and a record 16-0 win-loss mark in the regular season.
No offense has ever been as prolific. A handful of teams, at least, have finished in the same statistical neighborhood. And by looking at how those teams did in their followup seasons, it may provide clues of what to expect from the Patriots.
Purely off the numbers, it doesn’t look good for New England. Seven teams have thrown 40-plus TD passes; those teams averaged 29.9 TD passes the following year. There hasn’t been as much dropoff among teams that have averaged 300-plus passing yards; they’ve slipped to 290 yards per game.
The 16 teams that have averaged 30-plus points per game have tended to decline severely. They’ve fallen to 25.6 points per game, on average. And a big decline among teams that have won 14-plus games as well; on average, they’ve finished with 10-6 records the next year.
Does any of this mean, guarantee or even indicate that the Patriots are headed for a big fall this year? Not necessarily. Every team and year is different. In the case of the Patriots, they have almost all of their key guys back, and they’ll also benefit from playing a remarkably easy schedule. But these kind of numbers are always fun to kick around.
TEAMS FINISHING WITH 40+ TD PASSES IN 1978-2007
(how they fared the following season)
TD passes
37 Rams (2000) 42 TD passes in 1999
35 San Francisco (1988) 44 TD passes in 1987
32 Vikings (1999) 41 TD passes in 1998
31 Colts (2005) 51 TD passes in 2004
31 Dolphins (1985) 49 TD passes in 1984
29 Dolphins (1987) 46 TD passes in 1986
14 San Francisco (1999) 41 TD passes in 1998
TEAMS AVERAGING 300+ PASSING YARDS IN 1978-2007
(how they fared the following season)
Yards Per Game
335 Chargers (1982) 305 YPG in 1981
323 Chargers (1985) 308 YPG in 1984
308 Chargers (1984) 306 YPG in 1983
306 Rams (2001) 343 YPG in 2000
300 Oilers (1991) 317 YPG in 1990
280 Rams (2002) 306 YPG in 2001
267 Dolphins (1985) 322 YPG in 1984
265 Dolphins (1987) 306 YPG in 1986
264 Oilers (1992) 300 YPG in 1991
253 Chargers (1986) 323 YPG in 1985
TEAMS AVERAGING 30+ POINTS PER GAME IN 1978-2007
(how they fared the following season)
Points Per Game
33.8 Rams (2000) 32.9 PPG in 1999
31.4 Rams (2001) 33.8 PPG in 2000
30.2 Kansas City (2004) 30.3 PPG in 2003
28.6 San Francisco (1995) 31.6 PPG in 1994
27.6 San Francisco (1988) 30.6 PPG in 1987
27.4 Colts (2005) 32.6 PPG in 2004
26.8 Dolphins (1985) 32.1 PPG in 1984
26.6 Washington (1984) 33.8 PPG in 1983
25.8 Chargers (2007) 30.8 PPG in 2006
25.2 Kansas City (2005) 30.2 PPG in 2004
24.9 Vikings (1999) 34.8 PPG in 1998
22.4 Chargers (1983) 32.0 PPG in 1982
21.3 Broncos (2001) 30.3 PPG in 2000
19.8 Rams (2002) 31.4 PPG in 2001
19.6 Broncos (1999) 31.3 PPG in 1998
18.8 Washington (1992) 30.3 PPG in 1991
TEAMS WINNING 14-PLUS GAMES IN 1978-2007
(how they fared the following season)
Win-Loss Record
14-2 Chicago (1986) 15-1 record in 1985
14-2 San Francisco (1990) 14-2 record in 1989
14-2 New England (2004) 14-2 record in 2003
12-4 Pittsburgh (1979) 14-2 record in 1978
12-4 Miami (1985) 14-2 record in 1984
12-4 Colts (2006) 14-2 record in 2005
11-5 Pittsburgh (2005) 14-2 record in 2004
11-5 Washington (1984) 14-2 record in 1983
11-5 San Diego (2007) 14-2 record in 2006
10-5 Chicago (1987) 14-2 record in 1986
10-6 San Francisco (1985) 14-2 record in 1984
10-6 Minnesota (1999) 14-2 record in 1998
10-6 San Francisco (1991) 14-2 record in 1990
10-6 San Francisco (1993) 14-2 record in 1992
10-6 New England (2005) 14-2 record in 2004
9-7 Washington (1992) 14-2 record in 1991
7-9 Jacksonville (2000) 14-2 record in 1999
7-9 Rams (2002) 14-2 record in 2001
6-9 NY Giants (1987) 14-2 record in 1986
6-10 Denver (1999) 14-2 record in 1998
5-11 Atlanta (1999) 14-2 record in 1998
—Ian Allan
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Posted by Rob Dammers | Jun. 26 at 05:38 AM
In 2004, Peyton Manning threw 49 TDs, since then, he hasn't thrown more than 31. Terrell Davis ran for 2008 yards in 1998, never broke 1,000 yards again.. Jamal Lewis ran for 2066 yards in in 2003, and followed that up with 1006 yards in 2004.. OJ rushed for 2003 yards in 1973, 1125 yards in 1974. Sanders rushed for 2053 yards and 11 td in 1997, 491 yards and 4 tds in 1998, then retired. Marino threw 48 tds in 1984, 30 in 1985. Tomlinson scored 31 TD in 2006, 18 in 2007. Point is, not one record-setting season by an offensive player in the NFL was duplicated by the same player the following season, in fact, most haven't even come close to repeating. That means you can bet your bottom dollar that Tom Brady won't throw more than 28-30 TDs in 2008 ( 28 TD/yr is his career avg). As a result, both Welker and Moss should see a significant drop in stats across the board. With such a weak schedule, I'd expect Maroney to be a workhorse back ala Corey Dillon (2004). Dillon carried the ball 345 times that year, so Bellichick isn't 'married' to the idea of RBBC. With an easy schedule, NE will likely pound the ball.They have to: if they send Brady back to pass as much as they did last season he'll get hurt. I'd expect a good chunk of NE's scoring to come on the ground this season as they get back to a more balanced attack..