Ian Allan

For those interested in targeting players who’ll be strong at the start of the season, I’m listing strength of schedule information that based solely on the first eight weeks of the seasons.

Based on that info, the Patriots, Raiders, Cardinals and Chargers have the best opening schedules. Players from those teams should tend to do a little better than expected. The Browns, Jaguars, 49ers and Rams, meanwhile, project to play the hardest schedules during the first half of the season.

Also listed here is the strength of schedule information based on scoring point – points allowed. Washington shows up at No. 1 on that list, while Denver and Green Bay are among the worst. But as you’ll read in the strength of schedule feature that appears in the magazine, that form of strength of schedule doesn’t tend to be nearly as meaningful. After looking at the 500ish schedules of the last 15 years, I believe that you’re much better off going by wins rather than points when looking at schedules.

FIRST HALF STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – WINS

Strength of schedule for the first eight weeks of the 2008 season, based on how opponents played last year. The Patriots project to play the easiest schedule (their first seven games are against teams that went a combined 35-77 in 2007). The Rams project to play the hardest schedule.
 W   L   Pct.
35  77  .313  New England
45  67  .402  Oakland
46  66  .411  Arizona
53  75  .414  San Diego
48  64  .429  Buffalo
58  70  .453  Carolina
51  61  .455  NY Jets
51  61  .455  Philadelphia
52  60  .464  Kansas City
52  60  .464  Seattle
60  68  .469  New Orleans
54  58  .482  Detroit
54  58  .482  NY Giants
55  57  .491  Atlanta
63  65  .492  Baltimore
56  56  .500  Chicago
56  56  .500  Tennessee
57  55  .509  Houston
66  62  .516  Washington
67  61  .523  Dallas
59  53  .527  Miami
59  53  .527  Pittsburgh
68  60  .531  Tampa Bay
62  50  .554  Cincinnati
62  50  .554  Denver
62  50  .554  Indianapolis
64  48  .571  Green Bay
64  48  .571  Minnesota
65  47  .580  Cleveland
65  47  .580  Jacksonville
76  52  .594  San Francisco
73  39  .652  St. Louis

FIRST HALF STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE – SCORING

Strength of schedule for the first eight weeks of the 2008 season, based on how many points opponents allowed last year. Washington projects to play the easiest schedule (their opponents, during those first eight weeks, are against teams that allowed an average of 23.6 points per game last season). The Rams project to play the hardest schedule.
PPG
23.6  Washington
23.4  New England
23.1  San Diego
22.8  Buffalo
22.4  NY Jets
22.4  Oakland
22.3  Kansas City
22.3  Arizona
22.2  Pittsburgh
22.0  Philadelphia
22.0  Baltimore
22.0  Tampa Bay
21.8  NY Giants
21.7  Miami
21.7  Seattle
21.7  Dallas
21.6  Detroit
21.5  Carolina
21.4  Houston
21.4  San Francisco
21.2  Minnesota
21.1  Tennessee
21.1  Cincinnati
21.0  Jacksonville
21.0  New Orleans
21.0  Chicago
20.8  Atlanta
20.8  Cleveland
20.7  Indianapolis
20.7  Green Bay
20.1  Denver
19.7  St. Louis
  
Compiled on July 1, 2008

—Ian Allan

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