Ask the Experts

ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:

Who has been the most overrated player in your fantasy drafts so far?

JEFFREY KAMYS

Tom Brady is probably the most overrated player in drafts so far. No doubt Brady is a top pick but expectations of a repeat in 2008 are simply ridiculous. If Brady finishes with 30 TDs in 2008, which is a great year, many of his owners will be disappointed.

Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to webmaster@docstats.com.

GREGG ROSENTHAL

Deuce McAllister, who is going as a solid seventh-round pick. Like the Saints, I have serious doubts whether he's going to play at all this season, much less play well. I don't think owners are grasping how severe his surgeries were, and that's too early in the draft to just burn a pick on a flier.

Rosenthal is the managing editor of Rotoworld.com, the highest trafficked fantasy news website on the web. He also writes a blog, contributes to NBCSports.com's NFL coverage and appears in the NBC Fantasy Fix three times a week, including a live show every Sunday morning at 11AM.

SCOTT ENDSLEY

We’re seeing Darren McFadden go entirely too early in drafts this season so far. This is very likely due to the huge impact of Adrian Peterson last season as a rookie. Big difference here is the offensive line; the Vikings were already set with a solid line opening holes for Peterson. McFadden has a bright future in the NFL but he’ll need a better offensive line to warrant Top 15-20 selections we’ve already seen for him.

Endsley is co-owner and a senior fantasy football consultant for FantasyDraftEdge.com offering customizable fantasy football cheat sheets and professional VIP advice all season long. For more info, go to www.fantasydraftedge.com.

MIKE NAZAREK

Ronnie Brown. His ADP ranges from the late second round to the late third round in most 12-team drafts, yet we are talking about a player less than a year removed from a torn ACL. He'll be lucky to rush for 1,000 yards and score 6 times in 2008.

Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, fantasy auction & regular drafting programs, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He is the reigning four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at 702-568-7118 or miken@ffmastermind.com.

IAN ALLAN

I’ll go with a player I think will tend to be selected too early: Darren McFadden of the Raiders. Adrian Peterson had some big games last year, and some people will select McFadden looking for the same kind of production. But McFadden isn’t the same kind of back. He doesn’t break as many tackles, and he’s not as physical. He might be more like Reggie Bush than Adrian Peterson, playing part time. I expect Justin Fargas to be Oakland’s opening day starter, and the Raiders could also look to work in Michael Bush. McFadden could be just a part-time guy, rushing for about 500 yards. At Arkansas, McFadden went down too easily at times, and he also fumbled 23 times. I see him as worth a gamble pick about 25 running backs in, but my hunch is he’ll go about 10 spots higher.

Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index magazine. He’s also one of the main content contributors for that company’s website, www.fantasyindex.com. His IAN ALLAN’S MAILBAG column is posted on Fridays.

LOUIS TRANQUILLI

Currently Jamal Lewis is the most overrated FF player in my opinion. I've seen him drafted as high as round 2. This reeks of "backward looking" in fantasy football. Lewis was a nice surprise last season, but in 2008 his schedule doesn't include the weak run defenses of the NFC West. Jamal had 4 of his 9 TDs in one game during 2007, against the Seattle Seahawks.

Louis Tranquilli is the founder and the primary "brains" (if you stretch it) of BFDFANTASYfootball.com. BFD is about giving advice to players from a player. Lou's been a highly successful owner in many high stakes contests. BFD is giving away 50 fantasy football teams in 2008.

BOB HECK

Earnest Graham. With a current fourth-round ADP, fantasy football GMs are expecting featured RB numbers. We don’t see that as being the case, evident by Graham's light contract extension (3 years, $10.5M) and the free-agent acquisition of former Buc starting RB Warrick Dunn. Jon Gruden loves what Dunn brings to the table, and in May mentioned that Dunn can be a “front-line guy” and is “going to play a lot.” Also, don’t rule out Cadillac Williams returning after his expected stint on the PUP list to start the season, joining a crowded backfield that also includes Michael Bennett. There are many variables working against Graham and we wouldn't recommend an investment any earlier than the sixth round.

Heck is a founding partner at Dynasty Rogues, a fantasy football website filled with football enthusiasts, run by football enthusiasts. The company provides year-round dynasty and redraft fantasy football coverage and analysis, including Dynasty Rogues Radio and the Rogues Forum. The site can be reached at www.dynastyrogues.com.

SAM HENDRICKS

I have Julius Jones about 30th in terms of RB rankings. However, he seems to be going 22nd in many drafts this year (43rd overall). He is a classic overrated player. Jones has huge potential with a new team, but there are several question marks. The backfield in Seattle is crowded now with incumbent Maurice Morris and the addition of T.J. Duckett. I see a RBBC situation, and that will mean fewer TDs, as Duckett may be the goal-line back. A complicated system, RBBC and an air attack that may see him left out all point to lower expectations.

Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook and the recently released Fantasy Football Almanac 2008 which are both available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is an 18-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) and will participate this year in the inaugural season of the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

ANDY RICHARDSON

I'm a little leery of where Ryan Grant is being selected so far, generally a top-10 pick. He's not under contract yet, and although that will get worked out eventually, his absence from offseason workouts could benefit DeShawn Wynn and Brandon Jackson, both of whom had moments last year. He's not much of a receiver, so he'll probably lose those opportunities to Jackson or another back. Moreover, I think he's going to have a tougher time finding holes with a virtual rookie in Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Good player, but not enough of a sure thing for me to be eager to draft him in the first round.

Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past seven years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections, as well as various site features. He has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. His A DAY OF FOOTBALL wrap-up column appears Mondays during the NFL season. For more information go to www.fantasyindex.com.

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