Viva Murillo!
I did something very unusual for me this past weekend; something I haven’t done in 15 years playing fantasy games. I participated in a July draft.
Not a mock draft, of course. Pretending to care about a team is like pretending to give a major speech or take an important test. You can’t really simulate what it’s like. You can practice, but it’s just not the same as actually doing it.
No, it was a real draft. In July. As you might know, I’m a big believer in waiting as long as you can to hold your draft or auction. I think it gives everyone a more accurate picture of the NFL as it will look on opening day, and as a result your league will better reflect how teams can predict and respond to changes as they occur. If you start too early, you’re playing a lot of catch-up.
But I decided to participate anyway ... and I stand by my original position. It was definitely fun, but there was a lot of guesswork. I was choosing players who haven’t been to camp, haven’t battled for their jobs and who haven’t played a down of fake football in August. I drafted guys who haven’t really gelled with their new teams yet and who could get injured before week 1. I selected guys who might get cut and who might lose their job because someone else was cut and picked up by their team. But I have no idea who they are.
A draft or auction is a snapshot of the NFL as it stands that day. Sure, you’re projecting into the future ... but so is the NFL. All teams are forecasting (in many cases guessing) which guys will make an impact this season. You’re doing just what they’re doing, and your crystal ball works about as well as theirs does. Everyone is in the same boat.
But a lot can and will change before September. Teams will announce additional cuts and signings. They will change their depth chart. Players will get hurt playing games that don’t count, and you’ll know how long they’ll be out. Some guys might even retire or get suspended, and some will be placed on the PUP list. And all of those things will affect your rankings and your strategy.
If you know about it before you choose your players, of course. If you don’t, you’ll have a roster of players for a league that doesn’t really exist anymore: The one where Jeremy Shockey was a disgruntled Giant, Washington still had Phillip Daniels available and the Dolphins still had Jason Taylor on their roster. And all that changed since my last column. Imagine what will happen next month.
If you can help it at all, make your drafts and auctions as late as possible. I know everyone has to agree on a time and date ... but be one of the guys pushing for something close to the season. The entire league will be better informed and you’ll avoid all the random pitfalls that would occur if you drafted too early—pitfalls that have nothing to do with your ability to choose good players. Struggling because you drafted poorly is part of the game. But struggling because a few of your starters got hurt in camp or the preseason is part of bad scheduling. There’s no reason you have to be subjected to that.
Well, almost no reason. I have to admit, I enjoyed the draft. Like I said earlier about forecasting players, everyone is in the same boat. All of us had the same limitations, just like the NFL teams who have no idea what the future holds. It was certainly fair. Plus, it got me thinking about my (much, much later) drafts and how I’ll approach them. It was a nice way to kick off the fantasy season.
As a matter of fact, I might even do it again next year. Having a “starter draft” might be the right way to shake off the rust and get ready for upcoming challenges. But while I always do my best and take every entry seriously, I’d never do that for my favorite league. The more you care about winning a certain league, the later you want that draft or to be. You should eliminate as many variables as you can, and the uncertainty of August developments is a variable leagues should try to avoid.
Youtube Clip of the Week: Speaking of avoiding variables, it looks like this guy should have avoided the variables associated with attending a live game.
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.
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