Fantasy Index Reader Column
Every season in the auction I learn something new. And every season I walk in better equipped than the last to have success.
There are some strategies that go without saying. Coming in with an accurate value (in your eyes) for each player is essential. Making sure to walk out the auction with 2-3 studs is important. Prepping yourself for various outcomes helps keep emotion from getting the best of you.
Of course all the prepping you do can not fully prepare you for the high energy, high octane adventure each auction brings. Because no matter how much you prepare, each auction has a life of its own and the successful owners are flexible with this movement.
This year one of my new focuses is finding the best value for my dollars.
Last season in my auction league, there were 13 RBs taken in the top 20 that were busts, in that they were severely overpaid for. And this season my bet is there will be just as many. For WRs, there was only one player who performed well below his value -- Randy Moss for $10.
Running back "Busts":
| SA | $ 49.00 |
| Rudi Johnson | $ 35.00 |
| Ronnie Brown | $ 29.00 |
| Barber | $ 21.00 |
| Portis | $ 20.00 |
| E. James | $ 19.00 |
| R.Bush | $ 19.00 |
| L. Jordan | $ 18.00 |
| Cadillac | $ 15.00 |
| M.Bell | $ 15.00 |
| J.Jones | $ 15.00 |
| Dunn | $ 11.00 |
| McGahee | $ 10.00 |
So for someone looking to get the most bang for their buck, the lesson here is stay the hell away from the crapshoot in the RB position and load up on the much safer WR position, right?
Wrong. The caveat at RB is that in my league I notice that in the last two seasons the total points champion and League champion shared one thing in common -- they each had RBs that outperformed their value. The other commonality is that no team with the highest paid player won anything the last two years.
In 2005 our League Champion had Larry Johnson, purchased for $3. Total points champion had Shaun Alexander for $40. LT went for $50 that season. In 2006 the League Champion had LT for $45. Total points champion had Willie Parker for $21. Both players outperformed their value. The team with Shaun Alexander, the highest paid player for $49, did not make the playoffs.
So what lesson am I drawing from this? One is to find that RB that gives you more punch than his value. And to increase my odds of doing that I am going to pour more money into the RB position, taking money from my WR pool. Now why would I do that, given the amount of RB busts from last season?
While it is true there was only 1 "bust" in the WR position, as I further analyze monies spent there I find that ALL the WRs in the top 10 went for too much.
Ten Highest Paid WRs:
| S. Smith | $ 23.00 |
| Fitzgerald | $ 18.00 |
| Harrison | $ 17.00 |
| C. Johnson | $ 17.00 |
| Owens | $ 17.00 |
| Holt | $ 16.00 |
| Boldin | $ 12.00 |
| Wayne | $ 10.00 |
| R. Moss | $ 10.00 |
| Chambers | $ 7.00 |
Looking at the statistics at the WR position, and the points they generated in my league, here are the facts:
Marvin Harrison, the total points leader at WR, logged in 116 points in 2006. Lee Evans, who went for $4, logged in 80 points, and ranked #10. That is a 36 point difference between 1 and 10; and an $11 difference. TJ Houshmanzadeh, one of my WRs from last season, logged in 72 points and was ranked #15. Housh went for $3 -- but even better was he was an in-season pick-up when a team dropped him during his early bout with injury.
What I see is the difference between #1 and #15 is only 44 points over the course of a full season. So I'm going to save the money I would spend on a top 5 WR, and instead grab three from the top 15 pool, at about $4 each. What I like about this strategy is out of those three, any one of them could end up being a top 5 WR when it is all said and done. And at worst, I'll have three middle of the road players that should generate plenty of points.
Meanwhile I'll take that extra WR cash and grab another top 15 RB, and hope for the best. In the RB position, the difference between #1 (LT at 276) and #10 (McAllister at 92) is an astounding 184 points! A very different story than the WR position.
So while busts at RB are much more likely -- it remains the key position for most fantasy leagues. And in an auction maximizing your dollars vastly increases the likelihood for success.
Of course all this can change during the auction. Which is the beauty of the auction -- it is a fluid beast that is best tamed with heavy preparation and flexibility to move with the flow.
Bryan Bertsch is a Meditation Coach and Fantasy Football Enthusiast. Visit his website at www.bryanbertsch.com.
Reader columns are submitted by Fantasy Football Index readers. Opinions expressed in reader columns are not endorsed by the publishers of Fantasy Football Index. We're just contributing to the marketplace of ideas. Learn more about how to submit your own reader column.
- Comments [2]
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Posted by MARK MALONEY | Mar. 27 at 01:02 AM
Justin, There just isn't going to be that much creativity in DC pitching this year, at least at the start. You've got to assume that Greinke, Lincecum, Halladay, Sabathia, Haren, Carpenter and J. Johnson are 100% owned, and the rest mentioned aren't far behind. At these prices there just isn't that much temptation to roll the dice on the Liriano's (unless he closes) or Sanchez's. You didn't mention Lee - not in Week 1 obviously but would have been widely owned if not for the strain. Is he a guy on your "watch" list? Looking forward to the rest. Been looking at this stuff for almost 3 months now......
Posted by JUSTIN ELEFF | Mar. 28 at 06:19 AM
It looks like I'll be opening with just 11 SPs, which probably means only 3 AL guys. I'm trying to guard my ERA and WHIP as closely as I can, because I see no way to avoid opening the season with one cheap closer - I'll be writing more about that early in the week - and I just don't want any blowup from him to kill me. So Lee is indeed a watch guy, but I'll probably stick to NLers for a while with any purchases I make. The beauty of the challenges is that somehow, no pitcher will be more than about 85% owned even at this year's salaries. There are always more newcomers making newcomer mistakes than there should be.