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Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

There's RBBC, and then there's what we're looking at in 2008. It's gotten so bad that not only is the NFL down to a scant handful of true full-time backs, but several of those are about to fall into platoons simply by operation of their advancing age. Edgerrin James, Rudi Johnson, Jamal Lewis. Thomas Jones will turn 30 in a couple of weeks, and he's only had a few seasons as a starter.

How bad is it? I ran down all 32 teams below, named the lead back for each and tried to answer one Yes / No question:

Is this guy worth considering in the Football Challenge and like games, where backs produce their usual bulk stats but also affect your rushing and receiving averages?

The answer is (nearly) always No.

ARZ

Edgerrin James ($1480)

No.

My best argument over the last couple of years -- that Edge wasn't too old, yet -- no longer works. Maybe his eventual replacement is on the roster now. Maybe not.

ATL

Michael Turner ($1220)

No.

As close as I come to cheating and adding a Maybe designation. Good player, sure, but standing behind a rookie QB and a bad line. Turner could come on late, or in 2009.

BAL

Willis McGahee ($1470)

Yes.

I'm a big believer not in McGahee but in Cam Cameron, the man now designing and calling his plays. Ronnie Brown was maybe the second- or third-most valuable asset in all of fantasy football in 2007 before hurting himself. The Ravens' line may not be what it was a few years ago, but it's also not nearly the mess that the Dolphins' line was last year. You don't have to believe in McGahee to own him in 2008.

BUF

Marshawn Lynch ($1370)

Yes.

If he repeats his numbers exactly he's worth this salary. If he doesn't he should still be worth his salary in several very skimmable home games. And there's a 10% chance -- certainly no worse than that -- that Lynch (not an injury-prone Adrian Peterson) is the next big thing at RB in the league.

CAR

Jonathan Stewart ($1000)

No.

Not certain how he'll be used or how good the line will prove to be. There's a fair chance that Stewart will become a must, as he seems to match what I perceive to be the philosophical orientation of the people calling the plays in Carolina, but for now I want to see the preseason.

(Not literally.)

(Preseason football plays on a loop in hell.)

CHI

Matt Forte ($900)

No.

Same comment as Stewart, word-for-word except for the words "Stewart" and "Carolina." I'd rather see Forte become the must, though, and save the $100.

CIN

Rudi Johnson ($1190)

No.

While we're having this fun: Same comment as Edgerrin James, word-for-word except for the word "Edge." Rudi's old the way stand-and-fight boxers get old. He's been hit too many times.

CLE

Jamal Lewis ($1600)

No.

I see the Browns taking a step backward this year, then maybe consolidating their youth and talent into more permanent gains beginning in '09. It happens with some regularity that the breakout used-to-be-a-doormat squad can't handle its first taste of the tougher schedules that come with winning -- and how's this for a tougher schedule? DAL, PIT, at BAL the first three weeks. If any one Brown is stepping backward, Lewis is the one.

DAL

Marion Barber ($1880)

No.

You're paying for last year's big numbers now, and this year's backup is a better player than Julius Jones. Another thing: Barber shows signs of being a true average-killer as a receiver; 44 catches at 6.4 yards per should not be overlooked.

DEN

Selvin Young ($940)

Yes.

My weakest Yes, for two reasons. One, Young's nothing special, and any other RB on the roster might just as easily win the starting gig. Two -- and this is worse -- there may not be a real starting gig. Mike Shanahan has a long and recent history of rotating his backs by health, performance and even whim. You can own one who's healthy, playing well and anointed as the starter (see Travis Henry early in 2007), but you can't ever afford to depend on him three or four weeks down the road (see Travis Henry after that). If you carry Young, or any other Denver back, to start the season, do so because you really want to own him at the start of the season specifically.

DET

Kevin Smith ($800)

No.

Different comment from Stewart and Forte: I'll be very surprised if Smith proves to be worth much.

(Did anyone else have to sit through Jersey Girl?)

GB

Ryan Grant ($1540)

Yes.

If the latest speculation has the quarterback situation in Green Bay exactly pegged -- Favre vs. Rodgers, better player starts -- Grant is a top-five prospect overall. He's the workhorse back on a team with a great line and nearly great defense, and his QB is the better of Brett Favre or someone else. How can you not own him?

HOU

Chris Brown ($850)

No.

Same answer with the same lack of hesitation for Ahman Green ($800). Which, I suppose, makes Steve Slaton ($800) my rookie sleeper of the year.

IND

Joseph Addai ($2550)

Yes.

Addai is a good, not great football player. He may be the eighth- or ninth-best offensive player on the Colts' roster. So what?

Exactly.

JAX

Maurice Jones-Drew ($2580)

No.

Destined always to be priced about 15% above where I'd really consider him. In his best season -- but not too many others -- that means I'll regret not owning him.

KC

Larry Johnson ($2840)

Yes.

I'm waffling, though, two weeks after saying how much I liked his early schedule. No question, my two biggest hangups with Michael Turner (QB and line) apply here, too. And the difference between Johnson and Turner is $1620 -- more than the full salaries of Ryan Grant, Willis McGahee and Marshawn Lynch.

MIA

Ronnie Brown ($1760)

No.

I believe my comment on McGahee also suggests that I'm not a big believer in Brown. I'm not. Was not last year, am not this year as he comes off of major injury.

MIN

Adrian Peterson ($2810)

Yes.

Destined always to be priced about 15% below where he'd really be a must. Part of the reason for that is that he'll average right around last year's 14 games played. Just hope the two he misses are never surprise game-time decisions.

NE

Laurence Maroney ($1930)

No.

Part of me wants to take this bait again in 2008. The other part says it would be insane -- certifiably nutso -- to own Maroney when I won't consider Marion Barber.

NO

Reggie Bush ($950)

No.

No part of me wants to take this bait again. If Barber hurts a team at 44 catches for 6.4 yards per, Reggie kills the same team at 73 for 5.7. I hear the argument that the proper comparison is between Reggie and Tiki Barber, not Marion -- that Tiki played a similar style and took a few years to get going. Fine. Where, exactly, is the evidence that Reggie will eventually get going?

NYG

Brandon Jacobs ($1680)

No.

He's better than I gave him credit for. Not by much, and maybe not by enough to hold off the rest of a stable of comparably better-than-credited backs. If Jacobs got hurt, I might own Derrick Ward at less than half the price ($790).

NYJ

Thomas Jones ($1430)

No.

Likewise, better than I gave him credit for. Not by nearly enough.

OAK

Darren McFadden ($1000)

Yes.

Rookie RBs, unlike rookie QBs, are often great from the get-go. Which means there's no bigger salary advantage in the challenge games than at the rookie end of the RB lists; Matt Ryan doesn't look like any kind of bargain at $1000, even compared to Tom Brady's $4150, but DMC and probably another two backs will be (at least) playable at their rookie salaries. As I said above, Jonathan Stewart and Matt Forte look like good fits for their respective offenses, and Steve Slaton certainly has a gaping hole to fill in HOU. But every other situation looks less than ideal for the rookie drafted into it. For that matter, OAK isn't perfect, either. But McFadden is better than the other rookies.

PHI

Brian Westbrook ($3120)

Yes.

He winds up on my rosters every year, eventually; may as well give in already and carry the guy. Nothing much else to say, except that when Westbrook catches 90 passes at 8.6 yards per, it hurts your average but does nothing like the Reggie Bush damage.

PIT

Willie Parker ($2300)

No.

One to watch, though -- and by that I mean that Pittsburgh is one to watch, not Parker. I'm on record as thinking Fast Willie ain't great, and I think the Steelers are on record now, too, with the first-round pick of Rashard Mendenhall. Should Parker pull up slightly lame at some point, Mendenhall might well take the starting job and keep it. I'd own him if he did.

SD

LaDainian Tomlinson ($3500)

Yes.

Er, yes.

SEA

Julius Jones ($1200)

No.

Reread the Marion Barber comment.

SF

Frank Gore ($2480)

No.

I love the guy, but no. Mike Martz is certain to get Gore more than his 5 rushing TDs from a year ago -- as FFI's Ian Allan has documented so well, Martz throws between the tens but tends to run nearer the goal-line -- but any progress there will come at a likely cost of several carries per game. I call that a "likely" cost because it is possible here -- and wasn't possible in DET before -- that Martz will conclude there's so little talent available to him in the passing game that he has to run more than in the past. That might sound good for Gore at first, but think it through. How twisted do you have to be to consider an overall lack of talent on offense an endorsement for one member of that offense?

STL

Steven Jackson ($2760)

Yes.

Absolutely yes. Running behind a decimated line and playing only 12 games, Jackson still cracked 1,000 yards. He's 25 years old and now has Al Saunders as his coordinator, just two years after Saunders was widely considered a genius. Jackson is one of a very few players who might get 75% or even 80% of his team's carries in 2008, and those carries should come behind a slightly ... less ... decimated line than in '07.

TB

Earnest Graham ($920)

No.

I'm sure there are outsiders expecting Cadillac Williams to return at some point and reclaim his job as the Bucs' lead back. No one here in Tampa. It wasn't widely reported this way, but Williams' knee injury was nearly as gruesome as Joe Theismann's broken leg a couple of generations ago. No part of Williams' body came sticking through his skin, but otherwise all of the elements were there: the sickening twist of leg in wrong direction, the instant agony of the injured player, the gathering of teammates and opponents alike with bowed heads and truly grim expressions. I'm willing to bet Williams will never be effective again as a regular player. Graham played well last year but the team picked up ancient Warrick Dunn and seems intent on playing him semi-regularly -- which says more than enough to make Graham a No.

TEN

LenDale White ($950)

No.

Same mix of backs as last year, minus Chris Brown and plus Chris Johnson. Johnson should be the lightning to White's thunder, but that puts them both in a kind of limbo. On one hand, you figure any back who ran for 1,110 yards and 7 TDs a year ago (as White did) will play plenty in 2008. On the other hand, you figure any back drafted for his speed after another back averaged 3.7 yards per carry in a lead role (as White also did) will play plenty himself. I figure the carries split something like 57/43 in White's favor, and neither guy cracks 800 yards.

WAS

Clinton Portis ($2170)

Yes.

Hard to believe Portis is only 26 years old (27 on September 1). He's averaged just 4.0 yards per carry over his career in D.C. -- after 5.5 in Denver -- but it's hard to complain much about his kind of lion's-share production in an age of platoons and committees. Note that his average has been at least .3 yards per carry higher on the road than at home since 2005, pick your spots and feel free to own him -- particularly from Week 8 on, when Portis will play road games in DET (Week 8), SEA (Week 12), CIN (Week 15) and SF (Week 17).

By my count that's 12 Yes votes and 20 No votes, with fully half of the affirmatives priced at $2550 or more. I'm looking to carry either 10 or 11 backs to start the season, so there aren't a lot of decisions yet unmade.

Figure Tomlinson, Westbrook, Peterson, Jackson, Addai, Grant, McGahee, Lynch and McFadden are pretty much locks to be nine of my 10 or 11, and beyond that I'm looking for additional rookies to emerge in the preseason. Selvin Young's the fallback among cheapos, Larry Johnson at the other end.

Truth to tell, I don't see strong arguments in favor of almost any of my No players above. Not until injuries set in or one of the non-DMC rookies asserts himself over the next few weeks. No doubt, the best case among the dismissed is Marion Barber's -- but unless you see him as a must-start for Week 1, at CLE's middling defense, I'd hold off for now. Weeks 2, 3 and 4 look rough vs. PHI, at GB and vs. WAS.

Receivers next week. Here's hoping we find more options there.

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