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Andy Richardson


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He who hesitates is lost

Posted Aug. 18 at 08:37 AM

I'm pretty sure I knew about the emerging Josh Morgan in San Francisco before anyone else in my dynasty league. I'd heard 49ers coaches raving about him and seen him in the first exhibition game. On two occasions I was on the add/drop page about to include him on my roster.

I left him out there, though, because I couldn't figure out who to drop, and I thought, well, he's lasted this long, he'll last another few days. The next day, somebody picked him up, right before his 100-yard receiving game against the Packers.

It was yet another reminder that knowledge is a great thing, but merely knowing something isn't enough. You have to actually use it.

Contrast that with my picking up Brett Favre in that same league the day it first broke that he might be coming back. Or picking up Chris Perry when Ian started talking him up, or Tim Hightower the day it became apparent that the Cardinals were actually going into the preseason with just Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower, and a couple of guys in J.J. Arrington and the since-released Marcel Shipp who we already knew couldn't play. Roster limits forced me to cut a couple of guys who I might wish I had one day, but let's face it: Just because Brodie Croyle is more likely to be playing two seasons from now than Brett Favre doesn't mean I really need to keep him around, even in a dynasty league where starting quarterbacks are stretched extremely thin. If I'm ever forced to start Croyle, I'm not going to win many games.

So in addition to Morgan, Perry and Hightower, let's come up with 5 more things you can do between now and the start of the season to put some existing knowledge to use.

1. Use a late-round pick on Maurice Morris. I know, he flopped as a starter a year ago, and will probably be part of a committee in Seattle. All true, but consider: Julius Jones has shown Mike Holmgren very little, and T.J. Duckett can't seem to avoid getting dumped by every team that signs him. Morris doesn't need an injury to find his way into a featured role -- he might need nothing more than the other guys to keep doing what they've been doing.

2. Grab Ray Rice. Rice just turned in a stellar performance against one of the best run defenses in the league. Yes, Willis McGahee is the unquestioned starter, and yes his knee surgery was minor. But when a team uses a second-round pick on a guy who was a workhorse running back in college, AND their current starter is sidelined after knee surgery, AND that player has somewhat of a history of injuries dating back to college, AND the rookie just had a great preseason performance, what more knowledge do you need to utilize a pick in the later rounds on him? Let someone else take him and you could be kicking yourself all season long...like I expect to be doing with Josh Morgan.

3. Stay away from the Rams. It's all going south for the Rams, and they didn't have that far south to go anyway. The team was beat up and lousy a year ago. Their franchise running back, Steven Jackson, is holding out, which is a recipe for injury even assuming he signs this week. They've already lost a pair of reserve offensive linemen for the season, one of Jackson's backups/fullback Brian Leonard is hurt, and even Marc Bulger has a sore shoulder -- already. Jackson and Torry Holt are great players. They won't be on any of my teams.

4. Cross the river Jerricho. A guy to bump in your rankings is Jets' wideout Jerricho Cotchery. Yes, I'm way too fond of Brett Favre, we know that. But consider: Cotchery has been the go-to guy on the Jets for Favre quotes since the team signed him, and he's also been Favre's go-to guy in practice and in the team's first exhibition game. Plus Laveranues Coles is apparently still mourning Chad Pennington as if he was dead instead of seemingly quite happy playing in sunny Miami, where he's more likely to be the starter than he was in New York even before they acquired Favre. And Coles is hurt. We know Favre has always had his favorite receivers, and it sure looks like Cotchery will be it. Get him.

5. Draft Ricky Williams. I know it's crazy, but hear me out. Ronnie Brown is coming off injury and already banged-up with a new one (thumb). Ricky is healthy, motivated, and rested after not playing much the last couple of years. And oh yeah: He's pretty darn good. I understand the reluctance to take some players seriously, but think about the guys who picked Favre up for cheap when he first mentioned his "itch" to unretire, and remember:

There are worse things than wasting a roster spot or mid- to late-round draft pick on a guy who isn't a sure thing for the upcoming season.

Like not wasting it, and watching someone else do it the next day.

Readers' Comments

Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Aug. 18 at 01:30 PM

6. Don't put too much emphasis on the preseason. Josh Morgan definitely earned himself a roster spot. But it is most likely that Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce will still finish with better stats. The Patriots have looked quite bad so far, dare I say terrible. Is anyone dropping Moss on their draft boards?

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 18 at 05:10 PM

I agree you don't want to put too much stock into these things. But, it's one thing to not put any stock in poor performances by proven stars who don't care about the games and just want to avoid getting hurt (or in the case of say Tom Brady, aren't even playing). If you've got a rookie like Morgan or a brand-new starter like Aaron Rodgers, I think it often is meaningful how they perform. It's not the end-all and be-all, but a lot of the rookies who end up being great players showed a lot right from the get-go -- including exhibitions. Besides which, I don't agree that it is likely that Johnson and Bruce finish with better numbers. Johnson hasn't proved much over his career, and Bruce is not the player he was. Anyway, guess my point is I'd probably feel better later on if I overrate somebody now than if I dismiss them, and then be wrong later.

Posted by Bam Moran | Aug. 25 at 09:53 PM

is Chris Henry (wr) of the Bengals worth a last round pick?

Posted by J L | Aug. 29 at 03:18 PM

Andy, I think you might be overselling people on Willis McGahee's injury history. He hasn't be hurt on the field since college and has only missed 3 games over the four years he has actually played in the NFL. That is as solid a track record as you can find. He's only going to be 27 this fall so age shouldn't be a concern either. While I agree with you that Ray Rice is the future in Baltimore, there are two things that really make me want to avoid either Rice or McGahee for the coming season. The Ravens may possibly be looking at the worst QB situation in the NFL with either Joe Flacco or Troy Smith under center week one. They will be staring at eight man fronts all season. Combine this with a very difficult schedule it seems to me that the Ravens RB's may be among the least valuable for the 2008 season. JR

Posted by Matt Kons | Sep. 01 at 05:42 AM

Andy, I followed Fantasy Indexes advice on August 22nd and drafted Josh Morgan. I picked him a little early though since no one in my league had even heard of him and I took him in the 11th round. So you can imagine the comments I took on. I am debating what to do with him when there are still players out on the waiver wire like Chris Johnson, Andre Hall, Chris Perry, Randle El, Ray Rice, Steve Slaton, etc. Do I still sit on Morgan hoping to find value or do I admit an 11th round disaster and drop him?

Posted by Scott Baldocchi | Sep. 07 at 10:00 PM

Obviously Brady. What now for those of us who took him in the 1st Round?

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