Ian Allan

If Aaron Rodgers is going to successfully replace Brett Favre – if he’s even going to last through a 16-game season – he needs to do a better job of getting rid of the football.

While he is a tough guy, the primary reason Favre has been able to start a record 275 games in a row has been his ability to get rid of the football. By not hanging onto the ball too long, he reduced the number of hits he took – giving him a better chance to stay healthy.

Favre last year, for example, was sacked (on average) once per every 37 pass plays. That came in just behind Drew Brees, who was the league leader (1 per 41). Luck also plays a role in quarterback durability, of course, but it’s not a coincidence that the quarterbacks who tend to stay healthy are the same guys who tend to avoid getting hit – Favre, Brees, Brady and the Mannings. The worst quarterbacks each year tends to finish down around a sack per every 7 pass plays; and those guys don’t stay healthy for long.

Now Rodgers hasn’t played much, but look at his numbers from his limited playing time in four preseasons and three regular seasons:

2005 PRESEASON
(sack per 7 plays) — 20-37-2-172, 6 sacks
2006 PRESEASON
(sack per 5 plays) —22-38-1-323, 9 sacks
2007 PRESEASON
(sack per 11 plays) — 37-59-0-382, 6 sacks
2008 PRESEASON
(sack per 9 plays) — 37-59-0-382, 6 sacks

2005 REGULAR SEASON
(sack per 6 plays) — 9-16-1-65, 3 sacks
2006 REGULAR SEASON
(sack per 6 plays) — 6-15-0-46, 3 sacks
2007 REGULAR SEASON
(sack per 10 plays) — 20-28-0-218, 3 sacks

Also factor in that Rodgers will run a lot more often than Favre did. They’re not listed above, but he’s taken off on scrambles 32 times as a pro. That’s both in the exhibition games and in the regular season. He’s played in about 7-8 games worth of action, so it appears as if he might run about 4-6 times per game – maybe 15-20 yards per game as a starter. That running will help his fantasy value, but it will open him up to still even more hits from defenses. Unless he tailors his playing style to better protect his health, it will be hard for Rodgers to make it through a 16-game season.

And with Daunte Culpepper having announced his retirement today, the Packers badly need for Rodgers to somehow figure out a way to stay healthy. The other two quarterbacks on their roster are both rookies.

—Ian Allan

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