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24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson


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Posted Sep. 20 at 05:13 AM

It's week 3, and we're trying something a little different this week. Since the bulk of the work on the Weekly occurs Tuesday and Wednesday, and it's now Saturday, I thought I'd offer up a news or note from each game that addresses either fantasy developments since the Weekly came out, or maybe something that hadn't occurred to me when we were working on it. Off we go....

Carolina at Minnesota: Adrian Peterson has been limited in practice (when he practices at all). He's going to be the dreaded "gametime decision." The worst thing about that is that the guy making the decision is Brad Childress, who can be counted on to make the wrong one. Remember, this is the guy who had to be forced to give Peterson more than a dozen carries early in his rookie season, and showed loyalty to Tarvaris Jackson for two whole games -- just enough time, in other words, to miss out on some decent free agent options like Chris Simms. I think Peterson will probably play, but I'm leaning toward benching him. Childress spoke of being careful with his franchise back, which to me suggests a limited role -- he doesn't want the hamstring pulled which would cost him a lot more time. It seems a virtual certainty he'll lose about half the work, which is too risky for me unless I hear differently before the game. Oh yeah, for you folks in ridiculously deep leagues, Sidney Rice won't play.

Houston at Tennessee: Steve Slaton is going to start this one, and although the Titans have a great defense, I'm mildly interested in Slaton. Perhaps he has the speed to get outside on some carries, catch a few passes out of the backfield, be intriguing in a PPR format. Houston losing this game badly doesn't necessarily mean Slaton can't have some good total production. He looked very good in the exhibitions -- I know that doesn't always mean much.

Arizona at Washington: Arizona is 2-0, and I think they're pretty good, but compare their games -- San Francisco and Miami -- with Washington (Giants and Saints). It will be a tougher game for the Cardinals offense. Not like I'd bench Warner-Boldin-Fitzgerald, but it's a tougher matchup. Bench stash: Matt Leinart. Warner's going to get hurt eventually.

Cincinnati at N.Y. Giants: The Bengals' offense will turn things around eventually -- at least, the passing offense. But probably not here. Wait for week 4 against Cleveland. This should be another one-sided win for the defending Super Bowl champs.

Miami at New England: Somebody emailed me to ask about starting Kevin Faulk in a PPR league over Tomlinson. I wouldn't do it, but Faulk has considerable value this week with it appearing that Laurence Maroney and LaMont Jordan will both miss the game. Sammy Morris, though, is the key pickup here. Could be huge this week. Minor trivia: the Dolphins are the last team to beat the Patriots in the regular season, and their quarterback Chad Pennington (while with the Jets) is the last opponent to win a game in Foxborough. So maybe Miami will spring the upset of the season. But I doubt it.

Tampa Bay at Chicago: Devin Hester probably won't play. It's a tough matchup anyway. There might not be 30 total points scored in this game.

Oakland at Buffalo: The Bills are good. Stop Darren McFadden, who will almost certainly play this week (toe), and Oakland has no offense. McFadden is the only Raider I'd start this week, aside from maybe their only decent receiver, Zach Miller. Ugly matchup for the Raiders, easy win for the Bills.

Kansas City at Atlanta: Hope Larry Johnson has a big game here, so you can trade him away next week. Big game coming for Michael Turner.

St. Louis at Seattle: Torry Holt called out his teammates last week. Torry, it's not that they're not trying -- they're just not good. This team has made a lot of shaky personnel moves lately; I think they're actually paying Trent Green something like $3 million a year, which is kooky. You have to like Julius Jones in this one; Seattle should run far more than normal, to cut down on the miscues in the passing game that cost them a win last week.

Detroit at San Francisco: I'm starting Bryant Johnson over Wes Welker in one league. I might regret it, but I think this will be the shootout of Sunday afternoon. Niners starters, Lions starters -- I want them in my lineup.

Cleveland at Baltimore: Looks like Baltimore's defense is back, and Cleveland's offense has problems. I want no part of banged-up Jamal Lewis. I'd grudgingly start Braylon Edwards; he's got to be fine eventually, and any production the Ravens allow will be via the pass. There have been conflicting reports on Willis McGahee's involvement. The Baltimore Sun on Friday guessed a running back by committee situation. That's what I think, too. I'm not starting any of them -- McGahee, Rice, McClain -- even against a defense as poor as Cleveland's. Can't do it.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis: A lot has been made of Bob Sanders missing this game for the Colts, hurting their run defense. Sure, that will help the Jags, but Indy's run defense has been horrible even with Sanders in the lineup. A good week to start Maurice Jones-Drew or Fred Taylor, even with their minor injuries. They'll play and be fine. Dallas Clark will also play for Indy.

New Orleans at Denver: For the second year in a row people tried to tell me Denver would have a good defense this year. For the second year in a row I told them they were mistaken. No pass rush. No safeties. One good linebacker. I'm not even sure Dre Bly is all that good. This is a game to get all your Saints and Broncos receivers into the lineup for, except for the sadly injured Marques Colston. Oh yeah, Darrell Jackson is also hurt.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: Here's where we find out how good the Steelers are (or aren't). Lot of people jumping on their bandwagon. I think they'll jump off after this game. Philadelphia's defense is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. They can stop the run and get in Roethlisberger's grille.

Dallas at Green Bay: Both teams come off games in which the total points scored were more than 70 -- Green Bay's shootout in Detroit, Dallas' with the Eagles last Monday.. So naturally this will be a 13-10 game. Or not. Both teams are missing key members of their secondary, safeties Atari Bigby and Roy Williams. That's right, the over-under on horse collar tackles is now very low. Jason Witten's going to play and have a huge game. Ryan Grant's going to play and lose some work to Green Bay's other backs.

N.Y. Jets at San Diego: It's a Monday game, but important enough to mention. I'm not starting Tomlinson. He's hurt. He doesn't sound optimistic about his health. I think he'll be active but limited. Some say if he's active you have to play him. To me, if he's not LaDainian Tomlinson, why start him? Too risky for my blood, particularly with the game on Monday. I'd start a Sunday player first, then Darren Sproles, then settle for Tomlinson.

Enjoy the games.

Readers' Comments

Posted by Duane Stay | Sep. 20 at 01:04 PM

It's great to see a ffb website working on Saturday. Usually everything goes blank on Friday night. I wouldn't start McFadden though, unless you don't have an option. They're going to be behind and they'll be forced to throw. If your not starting the toe Tomlinson, I would stay away from McFadden.

Posted by ROBERT JOHNSON | Sep. 20 at 06:31 PM

Guys, we've all been playing FF long enough to know that if you persist with the "always play your studs regardless of minor/moderate injuries or matchups" strategy, you will NOT have as much success as the so-called experts would have you believe. The preferred, time-tested approach is to draft quality depth in the first place, and manage the hell out of your team every week -- when you accomplish that, the luck factor takes care of itself over time. For example, If you have Tomlinson, and if you drafted well enough (meaning that you are actually good at fantasy football in the first place), sit him this week in favor of Michael Turner or any of the other 15 or so RBs (which you should have at least one or two on your roster) who are going to outscore him this week! You will score more points that way, and be more likely to win! What a concept! Just figure out (if you can) who on your roster is likely to score the most, and play them in preference to the gimpy LT, fercryinoutloud! There is no pre-ordained NFL rule that Tomlinson will outscore everyone else every week. This is what FF is all about! It's not rocket science, but it is difficult to be consistently successful if you stop thinking and blindly follow foolish rules of thumb!

Posted by John Clifford | Sep. 20 at 07:00 PM

Love the last minute updates and the quick notes on each game is very helpful.

Posted by chris burleigh | Sep. 20 at 10:01 PM

Nice rant John.Alot of what you said is very true, depth for for team as well as who they are facing. But the way I make my final choise,after all the facts and statistics are put together is...from my gut.If you really love the game and have been in it for a few years (22) then that is what,in my opinion,the rule of thumb. P.S don't stress out too much,it wont be as fun if you do...Good Luck

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