Ian Allan
As best as I can tell, the Cowboys, Broncos, Titans and Panthers are the four teams that are going to capture first-round byes for the playoffs.
That’s a mixture of forecast and what we’ve seen in the first three weeks of the season – a combination of each team’s current records, plus its probability of victory in each of its games in the remaining 14 weeks of the season.
For this study, I don’t forecast each game per se. Instead, I attach a probability to each game. When Minnesota plays at Arizona in week 15, for example, I see that as a 50-50 game. So both the Vikings and the Cardinals for that game get half of a win. When I followed this process for each of the 256 games, the Cowboys and Broncos projected to finish with the most wins. Three teams – Detroit, St. Louis and Kansas City – project to finish with fewer than four wins. And this analysis shows the NFC East finishing with both NFC wildcards – and possibly with all four teams finishing with winning records. In addition, I’ve got the NFC East finishing with that conference’s top three teams (based on win-loss records).
The win-loss records for each team appear below, and the supporting documentation (the forecast for each game) follows. In the individual listings for each team, the percentage for each game represents the likelihood of victory.
Wins
12.7 Dallas
11.5 Denver
11.4 NY Giants
11.4 Tennessee
10.7 Buffalo
10.6 San Diego
10.5 Philadelphia
10.5 Carolina
10.4 New England
9.9 Jacksonville
9.6 Pittsburgh
9.5 Green Bay
9.4 New Orleans
9.1 Tampa Bay
9.0 Indianapolis
8.9 Washington
8.7 Minnesota
8.6 NY Jets
8.3 Arizona
8.1 Seattle
7.3 Chicago
6.4 Miami
6.0 Houston
5.9 Baltimore
5.4 Oakland
5.3 San Francisco
4.7 Cincinnati
4.5 Atlanta
4.1 Cleveland
3.4 Detroit
2.7 St. Louis
1.6 Kansas City
Arizona
win San Francisco (away)
win Miami (home)
loss Washington (away)
35% NY Jets (away)
55% Buffalo (home)
35% Dallas (home)
35% Carolina (away)
70% St. Louis (away)
80% San Francisco (home)
30% Seattle (away)
40% NY Giants (home)
20% Philadelphia (away)
95% St. Louis (home)
50% Minnesota (home)
20% New England (away)
60% Seattle (home)
Atlanta
win Detroit (home)
loss Tampa Bay (away)
win Kansas City (home)
3% Carolina (away)
2% Green Bay (away)
35% Chicago (home)
1% Philadelphia (away)
35% Oakland (away)
25% New Orleans (home)
15% Denver (home)
15% Carolina (home)
1% San Diego (away)
10% New Orleans (away)
25% Tampa Bay (home)
2% Minnesota (away)
80% St. Louis (home)
Baltimore
win Cincinnati (home)
win Cleveland (home)
5% Pittsburgh (away)
35% Tennessee (home)
10% Indianapolis (away)
45% Miami (away)
70% Oakland (home)
30% Cleveland (away)
40% Houston (away)
2% NY Giants (away)
20% Philadelphia (home)
35% Cincinnati (away)
35% Washington (home)
35% Pittsburgh (home)
1% Dallas (away)
30% Jacksonville (home)
Buffalo
win Seattle (home)
win Jacksonville (away)
win Oakland (home)
80% St. Louis (away)
45% Arizona (away)
55% San Diego (home)
55% Miami (away)
60% NY Jets (home)
30% New England (away)
75% Cleveland (home)
85% Kansas City (away)
85% San Francisco (home)
75% Miami (home)
45% NY Jets (away)
30% Denver (away)
45% New England (home)
Carolina
win San Diego (away)
win Chicago (home)
loss Minnesota (away)
97% Atlanta (home)
99% Kansas City (home)
45% Tampa Bay (away)
55% New Orleans (home)
65% Arizona (home)
60% Oakland (away)
97% Detroit (home)
85% Atlanta (away)
45% Green Bay (away)
60% Tampa Bay (home)
55% Denver (home)
40% NY Giants (away)
50% New Orleans (away)
Chicago
win Indianapolis (away)
loss Carolina (away)
loss Tampa Bay (home)
40% Philadelphia (home)
55% Detroit (away)
65% Atlanta (away)
45% Minnesota (home)
85% Detroit (home)
40% Tennessee (home)
30% Green Bay (away)
65% St. Louis (away)
30% Minnesota (away)
40% Jacksonville (home)
45% New Orleans (home)
40% Green Bay (home)
50% Houston (away)
Cincinnati
loss Baltimore (away)
loss Tennessee (home)
loss NY Giants (away)
55% Cleveland (home)
1% Dallas (away)
15% NY Jets (away)
40% Pittsburgh (home)
30% Houston (away)
40% Jacksonville (home)
40% Philadelphia (home)
10% Pittsburgh (away)
65% Baltimore (home)
10% Indianapolis (away)
45% Washington (home)
35% Cleveland (away)
85% Kansas City (home)
Cleveland
loss Dallas (home)
loss Pittsburgh (home)
loss Baltimore (away)
45% Cincinnati (away)
20% NY Giants (home)
15% Washington (away)
10% Jacksonville (away)
70% Baltimore (home)
45% Denver (home)
25% Buffalo (away)
60% Houston (home)
25% Indianapolis (home)
15% Tennessee (away)
10% Philadelphia (away)
65% Cincinnati (home)
5% Pittsburgh (away)
Dallas
win Cleveland (away)
win Philadelphia (home)
win Green Bay (away)
85% Washington (home)
99% Cincinnati (home)
65% Arizona (away)
95% St. Louis (away)
85% Tampa Bay (home)
45% NY Giants (away)
55% Washington (away)
99% San Francisco (home)
85% Seattle (home)
50% Pittsburgh (away)
60% NY Giants (home)
99% Baltimore (home)
45% Philadelphia (away)
Denver
win Oakland (away)
win San Diego (home)
win New Orleans (home)
95% Kansas City (away)
75% Tampa Bay (home)
50% Jacksonville (home)
45% New England (away)
80% Miami (home)
55% Cleveland (away)
85% Atlanta (away)
85% Oakland (home)
45% NY Jets (away)
95% Kansas City (home)
45% Carolina (away)
70% Buffalo (home)
25% San Diego (away)
Detroit
loss Atlanta (away)
loss Green Bay (home)
loss San Francisco (away)
45% Chicago (home)
1% Minnesota (away)
25% Houston (away)
45% Washington (home)
15% Chicago (away)
30% Jacksonville (home)
3% Carolina (away)
45% Tampa Bay (home)
40% Tennessee (home)
45% Minnesota (home)
2% Indianapolis (away)
40% New Orleans (home)
5% Green Bay (away)
Green Bay
win Minnesota (home)
win Detroit (away)
loss Dallas (home)
45% Tampa Bay (away)
98% Atlanta (home)
35% Seattle (away)
55% Indianapolis (home)
35% Tennessee (away)
35% Minnesota (away)
70% Chicago (home)
50% New Orleans (away)
55% Carolina (home)
90% Houston (home)
30% Jacksonville (away)
60% Chicago (away)
95% Detroit (home)
Houston
loss Pittsburgh (away)
loss Tennessee (away)
10% Jacksonville (away)
35% Indianapolis (home)
70% Miami (home)
75% Detroit (home)
70% Cincinnati (home)
15% Minnesota (away)
60% Baltimore (home)
20% Indianapolis (away)
40% Cleveland (away)
45% Jacksonville (home)
10% Green Bay (away)
50% Tennessee (home)
45% Oakland (away)
50% Chicago (home)
Indianapolis
loss Chicago (home)
win Minnesota (away)
loss Jacksonville (home)
65% Houston (away)
90% Baltimore (home)
45% Green Bay (away)
35% Tennessee (away)
60% New England (home)
40% Pittsburgh (away)
80% Houston (home)
30% San Diego (away)
75% Cleveland (away)
90% Cincinnati (home)
98% Detroit (home)
35% Jacksonville (away)
55% Tennessee (home)
Jacksonville
loss Tennessee (away)
loss Buffalo (home)
win Indianapolis (away)
90% Houston (home)
75% Pittsburgh (home)
50% Denver (away)
90% Cleveland (home)
60% Cincinnati (away)
70% Detroit (away)
65% Tennessee (home)
70% Minnesota (home)
55% Houston (away)
60% Chicago (away)
70% Green Bay (home)
65% Indianapolis (home)
70% Baltimore (away)
Kansas City
loss New England (away)
loss Oakland (home)
loss Atlanta (away)
5% Denver (home)
1% Carolina (away)
10% Tennessee (home)
5% NY Jets (away)
15% Tampa Bay (home)
1% San Diego (away)
15% New Orleans (home)
15% Buffalo (home)
25% Oakland (away)
5% Denver (away)
10% San Diego (home)
40% Miami (home)
15% Cincinnati (away)
Miami
loss NY Jets (home)
loss Arizona (away)
win New England (away)
20% San Diego (home)
30% Houston (away)
55% Baltimore (home)
45% Buffalo (home)
20% Denver (away)
40% Seattle (home)
60% Oakland (home)
30% New England (home)
60% St. Louis (away)
25% Buffalo (away)
75% San Francisco (home)
60% Kansas City (away)
20% NY Jets (away)
Minnesota
loss Green Bay (away)
loss Indianapolis (home)
win Carolina (home)
25% Tennessee (away)
45% New Orleans (away)
99% Detroit (home)
55% Chicago (away)
85% Houston (home)
65% Green Bay (home)
45% Tampa Bay (away)
30% Jacksonville (away)
70% Chicago (home)
55% Detroit (away)
50% Arizona (away)
98% Atlanta (home)
45% NY Giants (home)
New England
win Kansas City (home)
win NY Jets (away)
loss Miami (home)
85% San Francisco (away)
25% San Diego (away)
55% Denver (home)
99% St. Louis (home)
40% Indianapolis (away)
70% Buffalo (home)
75% NY Jets (home)
70% Miami (away)
75% Pittsburgh (home)
30% Seattle (away)
80% Oakland (away)
80% Arizona (home)
55% Buffalo (away)
New Orleans
win Tampa Bay (home)
loss Washington (away)
loss Denver (away)
95% San Francisco (home)
55% Minnesota (home)
90% Oakland (home)
45% Carolina (away)
45% San Diego (home)
75% Atlanta (away)
85% Kansas City (away)
50% Green Bay (home)
45% Tampa Bay (away)
90% Atlanta (home)
55% Chicago (away)
60% Detroit (away)
50% Carolina (home)
NY Giants
win Washington (home)
win St. Louis (away)
win Cincinnati (home)
90% Seattle (home)
80% Cleveland (away)
98% San Francisco (home)
45% Pittsburgh (away)
55% Dallas (home)
50% Philadelphia (away)
98% Baltimore (home)
60% Arizona (away)
50% Washington (away)
60% Philadelphia (home)
40% Dallas (away)
60% Carolina (home)
55% Minnesota (away)
NY Jets
win Miami (away)
loss New England (home)
loss San Diego (away)
65% Arizona (home)
85% Cincinnati (home)
60% Oakland (away)
95% Kansas City (home)
40% Buffalo (away)
95% St. Louis (home)
25% New England (away)
25% Tennessee (away)
55% Denver (home)
60% San Francisco (away)
55% Buffalo (home)
20% Seattle (away)
80% Miami (home)
Oakland
loss Denver (home)
win Kansas City (away)
loss Buffalo (away)
20% San Diego (home)
10% New Orleans (away)
40% NY Jets (home)
30% Baltimore (away)
65% Atlanta (home)
40% Carolina (home)
40% Miami (away)
15% Denver (away)
75% Kansas City (home)
10% San Diego (away)
20% New England (home)
55% Houston (home)
20% Tampa Bay (away)
Philadelphia
win St. Louis (home)
loss Dallas (away)
win Pittsburgh (home)
60% Chicago (away)
60% Washington (home)
90% San Francisco (away)
99% Atlanta (home)
40% Seattle (away)
50% NY Giants (home)
60% Cincinnati (away)
80% Baltimore (away)
80% Arizona (home)
40% NY Giants (away)
90% Cleveland (home)
50% Washington (away)
55% Dallas (home)
Pittsburgh
win Houston (home)
win Cleveland (away)
loss Philadelphia (away)
95% Baltimore (home)
25% Jacksonville (away)
60% Cincinnati (away)
55% NY Giants (home)
50% Washington (away)
60% Indianapolis (home)
60% San Diego (home)
90% Cincinnati (home)
25% New England (away)
50% Dallas (home)
65% Baltimore (away)
30% Tennessee (away)
95% Cleveland (home)
San Diego
loss Carolina (home)
loss Denver (away)
win NY Jets (home)
80% Oakland (away)
80% Miami (away)
75% New England (home)
45% Buffalo (away)
55% New Orleans (away)
99% Kansas City (home)
40% Pittsburgh (away)
70% Indianapolis (home)
99% Atlanta (home)
90% Oakland (home)
90% Kansas City (away)
60% Tampa Bay (away)
75% Denver (home)
San Francisco
loss Arizona (home)
win Seattle (away)
win Detroit (home)
5% New Orleans (away)
15% New England (home)
10% Philadelphia (home)
2% NY Giants (away)
40% Seattle (home)
20% Arizona (away)
75% St. Louis (home)
1% Dallas (away)
15% Buffalo (away)
40% NY Jets (home)
25% Miami (away)
45% St. Louis (away)
40% Washington (home)
Seattle
loss Buffalo (away)
loss San Francisco (home)
win St. Louis (home)
10% NY Giants (away)
65% Green Bay (home)
30% Tampa Bay (away)
60% San Francisco (away)
60% Philadelphia (home)
60% Miami (away)
70% Arizona (home)
75% Washington (home)
15% Dallas (away)
70% New England (home)
70% St. Louis (away)
80% NY Jets (home)
40% Arizona (away)
St. Louis
loss Philadelphia (away)
loss NY Giants (home)
loss Seattle (away)
20% Buffalo (home)
1% Washington (away)
5% Dallas (home)
1% New England (away)
30% Arizona (home)
5% NY Jets (away)
25% San Francisco (away)
35% Chicago (home)
40% Miami (home)
5% Arizona (away)
30% Seattle (home)
55% San Francisco (home)
20% Atlanta (away)
Tampa Bay
loss New Orleans (away)
win Atlanta (home)
win Chicago (away)
55% Green Bay (home)
25% Denver (away)
55% Carolina (home)
70% Seattle (home)
15% Dallas (away)
85% Kansas City (away)
55% Minnesota (home)
55% Detroit (away)
55% New Orleans (home)
40% Carolina (away)
75% Atlanta (away)
40% San Diego (home)
80% Oakland (home)
Tennessee
win Jacksonville (home)
win Cincinnati (away)
win Houston (home)
75% Minnesota (home)
65% Baltimore (away)
90% Kansas City (away)
65% Indianapolis (home)
65% Green Bay (home)
60% Chicago (away)
35% Jacksonville (away)
75% NY Jets (home)
60% Detroit (away)
85% Cleveland (home)
50% Houston (away)
70% Pittsburgh (home)
45% Indianapolis (away)
Washington
loss NY Giants (away)
win New Orleans (home)
win Arizona (home)
15% Dallas (away)
40% Philadelphia (away)
99% St. Louis (home)
85% Cleveland (home)
55% Detroit (away)
50% Pittsburgh (home)
45% Dallas (home)
25% Seattle (away)
50% NY Giants (home)
65% Baltimore (away)
55% Cincinnati (away)
50% Philadelphia (home)
60% San Francisco (away)
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