Ian Allan

Revised projections for each team’s overall win-loss record. The numbers you see below are a combination of each team’s current record, plus the likelihood of it will fare in its remaining 12-13 games.

For each of the 256 regular-season games, we assign a win-loss probability. For tonight’s Pittsburgh-Baltimore game, for example, we’re giving the Steelers a 95 percent chance of winning that game (if they played that game 20 times, we would expect Pittsburgh to win 19 times – we can’t see Joe Flacco going into Heinz Field and winning).

After looking at all of the remaining games, our estimate is that Dallas, Tennessee, Carolina and Buffalo will be the four teams that get first-round byes in the playoffs. Strongest division: NFC East, which appears to have a chance to have four teams with 10-plus wins. Probably both of the NFC wild cards will come from that division. Weakest division: NFC West – a very good chance that no team in that division will finish with a winning record.


Wins
11.7  Dallas
11.7  Tennessee
11.6  NY Giants
11.0  Buffalo
10.9  San Diego
10.7  Carolina
10.4  Denver
10.3  Washington
10.1  New England
 9.9  Philadelphia
 9.9  Jacksonville
 9.7  Tampa Bay
 9.5  Pittsburgh
 9.3  New Orleans
 9.2  NY Jets
 9.0  Indianapolis
 9.0  Green Bay
 8.5  Minnesota
 8.1  Chicago
 7.9  Arizona
 7.8  Seattle
 6.5  Houston
 6.3  Miami
 5.9  Baltimore
 5.5  San Francisco
 5.0  Oakland
 4.8  Atlanta
 4.5  Cleveland
 3.2  Cincinnati
 3.1  Detroit
 3.0  Kansas City
 2.4  St. Louis
  
  
Team-by-team breakdowns:
The probability of each team winning its remaining games. (For Arizona, for example, we’re give it a 55 percent chance of beating Buffalo on Sunday. If they were to play that game 20 times, we would expect the Cardinals to go about 11-9 in those games).

  Arizona
win  San Francisco
win  Miami
loss  Washington
loss  NY Jets
55%  Buffalo
35%  Dallas
35%  Carolina
70%  St. Louis
75%  San Francisco
30%  Seattle
35%  NY Giants
20%  Philadelphia
96%  St. Louis
50%  Minnesota
25%  New England
60%  Seattle
  
  Atlanta
win  Detroit
loss  Tampa Bay
win  Kansas City
loss  Carolina
5%  Green Bay
40%  Chicago
2%  Philadelphia
35%  Oakland
30%  New Orleans
20%  Denver
20%  Carolina
3%  San Diego
15%  New Orleans
25%  Tampa Bay
2%  Minnesota
80%  St. Louis
  
  Baltimore
win  Cincinnati
win  Cleveland
5%  Pittsburgh
35%  Tennessee
10%  Indianapolis
45%  Miami
70%  Oakland
30%  Cleveland
35%  Houston
2%  NY Giants
25%  Philadelphia
35%  Cincinnati
35%  Washington
35%  Pittsburgh
1%  Dallas
30%  Jacksonville
  
  Buffalo
win  Seattle
win  Jacksonville
win  Oakland
win  St. Louis
45%  Arizona
50%  San Diego
60%  Miami
60%  NY Jets
35%  New England
80%  Cleveland
80%  Kansas City
85%  San Francisco
80%  Miami
45%  NY Jets
30%  Denver
45%  New England
  
  Carolina
win  San Diego
win  Chicago
loss  Minnesota
win  Atlanta
97%  Kansas City
45%  Tampa Bay
55%  New Orleans
65%  Arizona
65%  Oakland
98%  Detroit
80%  Atlanta
45%  Green Bay
60%  Tampa Bay
65%  Denver
40%  NY Giants
50%  New Orleans
  
  Chicago
win  Indianapolis
loss  Carolina
loss  Tampa Bay
win  Philadelphia
55%  Detroit
60%  Atlanta
45%  Minnesota
90%  Detroit
40%  Tennessee
35%  Green Bay
65%  St. Louis
30%  Minnesota
45%  Jacksonville
50%  New Orleans
45%  Green Bay
45%  Houston
  
  Cincinnati
loss  Baltimore
loss  Tennessee
loss  NY Giants
loss  Cleveland
1%  Dallas
10%  NY Jets
25%  Pittsburgh
20%  Houston
25%  Jacksonville
25%  Philadelphia
5%  Pittsburgh
65%  Baltimore
5%  Indianapolis
35%  Washington
30%  Cleveland
75%  Kansas City
  
  Cleveland
loss  Dallas
loss  Pittsburgh
loss  Baltimore
win  Cincinnati
20%  NY Giants
15%  Washington
10%  Jacksonville
70%  Baltimore
40%  Denver
20%  Buffalo
55%  Houston
25%  Indianapolis
15%  Tennessee
5%  Philadelphia
70%  Cincinnati
5%  Pittsburgh
  
  Dallas
win  Cleveland
win  Philadelphia
win  Green Bay
loss  Washington
99%  Cincinnati
65%  Arizona
95%  St. Louis
80%  Tampa Bay
45%  NY Giants
50%  Washington
98%  San Francisco
85%  Seattle
55%  Pittsburgh
55%  NY Giants
99%  Baltimore
45%  Philadelphia
  
  Denver
win  Oakland
win  San Diego
win  New Orleans
loss  Kansas City
70%  Tampa Bay
50%  Jacksonville
45%  New England
80%  Miami
60%  Cleveland
80%  Atlanta
85%  Oakland
45%  NY Jets
95%  Kansas City
35%  Carolina
70%  Buffalo
20%  San Diego
  
  Detroit
loss  Atlanta
loss  Green Bay
loss  San Francisco
45%  Chicago
1%  Minnesota
20%  Houston
35%  Washington
10%  Chicago
30%  Jacksonville
2%  Carolina
40%  Tampa Bay
35%  Tennessee
40%  Minnesota
2%  Indianapolis
40%  New Orleans
5%  Green Bay
  
  Green Bay
win  Minnesota
win  Detroit
loss  Dallas
loss  Tampa Bay
95%  Atlanta
40%  Seattle
55%  Indianapolis
35%  Tennessee
35%  Minnesota
65%  Chicago
50%  New Orleans
55%  Carolina
85%  Houston
35%  Jacksonville
55%  Chicago
95%  Detroit
  
  Houston
loss  Pittsburgh
loss  Tennessee
loss  Jacksonville
40%  Indianapolis
70%  Miami
80%  Detroit
80%  Cincinnati
20%  Minnesota
65%  Baltimore
20%  Indianapolis
45%  Cleveland
50%  Jacksonville
15%  Green Bay
50%  Tennessee
55%  Oakland
55%  Chicago
  
  Indianapolis
loss  Chicago
win  Minnesota
loss  Jacksonville
60%  Houston
90%  Baltimore
45%  Green Bay
35%  Tennessee
60%  New England
45%  Pittsburgh
80%  Houston
25%  San Diego
75%  Cleveland
95%  Cincinnati
98%  Detroit
40%  Jacksonville
55%  Tennessee
  
  Jacksonville
loss  Tennessee
loss  Buffalo
win  Indianapolis
win  Houston
75%  Pittsburgh
50%  Denver
90%  Cleveland
75%  Cincinnati
70%  Detroit
60%  Tennessee
65%  Minnesota
50%  Houston
55%  Chicago
65%  Green Bay
60%  Indianapolis
70%  Baltimore
  
  Kansas City
loss  New England
loss  Oakland
loss  Atlanta
win  Denver
3%  Carolina
15%  Tennessee
5%  NY Jets
20%  Tampa Bay
2%  San Diego
20%  New Orleans
20%  Buffalo
25%  Oakland
5%  Denver
15%  San Diego
45%  Miami
25%  Cincinnati
  
  Miami
loss  NY Jets
loss  Arizona
win  New England
20%  San Diego
30%  Houston
55%  Baltimore
40%  Buffalo
20%  Denver
45%  Seattle
60%  Oakland
35%  New England
60%  St. Louis
20%  Buffalo
70%  San Francisco
55%  Kansas City
20%  NY Jets
  
  Minnesota
loss  Green Bay
loss  Indianapolis
win  Carolina
loss  Tennessee
45%  New Orleans
99%  Detroit
55%  Chicago
80%  Houston
65%  Green Bay
45%  Tampa Bay
35%  Jacksonville
70%  Chicago
60%  Detroit
50%  Arizona
98%  Atlanta
45%  NY Giants
  
  New England
win  Kansas City
win  NY Jets
loss  Miami
85%  San Francisco
25%  San Diego
55%  Denver
98%  St. Louis
40%  Indianapolis
65%  Buffalo
70%  NY Jets
65%  Miami
70%  Pittsburgh
30%  Seattle
80%  Oakland
75%  Arizona
55%  Buffalo
  
  New Orleans
win  Tampa Bay
loss  Washington
loss  Denver
win  San Francisco
55%  Minnesota
90%  Oakland
45%  Carolina
45%  San Diego
70%  Atlanta
80%  Kansas City
50%  Green Bay
45%  Tampa Bay
85%  Atlanta
50%  Chicago
60%  Detroit
50%  Carolina
  
  NY Giants
win  Washington
win  St. Louis
win  Cincinnati
90%  Seattle
80%  Cleveland
98%  San Francisco
50%  Pittsburgh
55%  Dallas
50%  Philadelphia
98%  Baltimore
65%  Arizona
50%  Washington
60%  Philadelphia
45%  Dallas
60%  Carolina
55%  Minnesota
  
  NY Jets
win  Miami
loss  New England
loss  San Diego
win  Arizona
90%  Cincinnati
65%  Oakland
95%  Kansas City
40%  Buffalo
98%  St. Louis
30%  New England
30%  Tennessee
55%  Denver
60%  San Francisco
55%  Buffalo
25%  Seattle
80%  Miami
  
  Oakland
loss  Denver
win  Kansas City
loss  Buffalo
loss  San Diego
10%  New Orleans
35%  NY Jets
30%  Baltimore
65%  Atlanta
35%  Carolina
40%  Miami
15%  Denver
75%  Kansas City
10%  San Diego
20%  New England
45%  Houston
15%  Tampa Bay
  
  Philadelphia
win  St. Louis
loss  Dallas
win  Pittsburgh
loss  Chicago
55%  Washington
85%  San Francisco
98%  Atlanta
40%  Seattle
50%  NY Giants
75%  Cincinnati
75%  Baltimore
80%  Arizona
40%  NY Giants
95%  Cleveland
45%  Washington
55%  Dallas
  
  Pittsburgh
win  Houston
win  Cleveland
loss  Philadelphia
95%  Baltimore
25%  Jacksonville
75%  Cincinnati
50%  NY Giants
40%  Washington
55%  Indianapolis
55%  San Diego
95%  Cincinnati
30%  New England
45%  Dallas
65%  Baltimore
25%  Tennessee
95%  Cleveland
  
  San Diego
loss  Carolina
loss  Denver
win  NY Jets
win  Oakland
80%  Miami
75%  New England
50%  Buffalo
55%  New Orleans
98%  Kansas City
45%  Pittsburgh
75%  Indianapolis
97%  Atlanta
90%  Oakland
85%  Kansas City
55%  Tampa Bay
80%  Denver
  
  San Francisco
loss  Arizona
win  Seattle
win  Detroit
loss  New Orleans
15%  New England
15%  Philadelphia
2%  NY Giants
45%  Seattle
25%  Arizona
80%  St. Louis
2%  Dallas
15%  Buffalo
40%  NY Jets
30%  Miami
45%  St. Louis
40%  Washington
  
  Seattle
loss  Buffalo
loss  San Francisco
win  St. Louis
10%  NY Giants
60%  Green Bay
30%  Tampa Bay
55%  San Francisco
60%  Philadelphia
55%  Miami
70%  Arizona
65%  Washington
15%  Dallas
70%  New England
70%  St. Louis
75%  NY Jets
40%  Arizona
  
  St. Louis
loss  Philadelphia
loss  NY Giants
loss  Seattle
loss  Buffalo
1%  Washington
5%  Dallas
2%  New England
30%  Arizona
2%  NY Jets
20%  San Francisco
35%  Chicago
40%  Miami
4%  Arizona
30%  Seattle
55%  San Francisco
20%  Atlanta
  
  Tampa Bay
loss  New Orleans
win  Atlanta
win  Chicago
win  Green Bay
30%  Denver
55%  Carolina
70%  Seattle
20%  Dallas
80%  Kansas City
55%  Minnesota
60%  Detroit
55%  New Orleans
40%  Carolina
75%  Atlanta
45%  San Diego
85%  Oakland
  
  Tennessee
win  Jacksonville
win  Cincinnati
win  Houston
win  Minnesota
65%  Baltimore
85%  Kansas City
65%  Indianapolis
65%  Green Bay
60%  Chicago
40%  Jacksonville
70%  NY Jets
65%  Detroit
85%  Cleveland
50%  Houston
75%  Pittsburgh
45%  Indianapolis
  
  Washington
loss  NY Giants
win  New Orleans
win  Arizona
win  Dallas
45%  Philadelphia
99%  St. Louis
85%  Cleveland
65%  Detroit
60%  Pittsburgh
50%  Dallas
35%  Seattle
50%  NY Giants
65%  Baltimore
65%  Cincinnati
55%  Philadelphia
60%  San Francisco

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