Viva Murillo!
Due to the nature of the game, fantasy football is loosely-tied to other pastimes. Gambling is an obvious one, as the fusion of luck and control makes it similar to other games you might play. In addition to sports-wagering, there are parallels with casino games as well, as you'll often hear that an owner is going to "roll the dice" with an untested player. Since the majority of leagues play for a nice return on your initial wager, it's a valid comparison.
Fantasy football also has similarities to the stock market, as owners act like day-traders gauging the value of their roster and the rise and fall of players based on a Sunday performance, an injury or even a practice schedule.
Unfortunately, this comparison can hurt owners, as the understandable search to "buy low" and 'sell high" with stocks can have devastating effects on a fantasy roster. Some owners are always on the hunt for a poor-performing player to "buy low." If they can get a good deal now, they could reap big rewards later. Similarly, they're also looking to 'sell high." And jettison a great performer for something more stable before he collapses.
After four weeks I'm hearing more and more owners talking this way, as if a good player needs to get off their roster immediately while they target a dud to put on their roster. It's almost like they want to sabotage their own team.
I mean, whatever happened to draft-day mistakes? Is Derek Anderson a buy low candidate? How about Ryan Grant? Sure, they could improve on their current stats, but will they ever justify where they were taken? Do you really want to be the one having to figure out whether or not to start them?
And whatever happened to draft-day gems? If you selected Jay Cutler, congratulations. But would you really look into trading him because his value is high? How about Santana Moss? You don't want those points?
I understand that owners always want to improve their team, and some players fizzle out after a few weeks. Plus, you might have needs at other positions. But fantasy football is not like the stock market. When you buy a stock, you (or a family member) will eventually buy or sell it. You only hold onto it because you think it will be worth more later. Aside from a potential dividend, it doesn't do much for you except add to a bottom line. But a fantasy player scores points for you every week. If you have a good one, they're doing something for you every game. That's your value right there. You don't ever have to sell them. You can keep them and reap the benefits.
But some owners are always looking to make a move. It's like buying low and selling high is a side-game, when it should be just a means to an end. It would be a shame if you traded away a guy who was "high" -- and remained "high" right through week 16 on someone else's team. In other words, you were smart enough to draft him, but not smart enough to keep him.
I understand trading for a player you think will really pick start scoring points soon, or ditching a guy who you think has hit his peak. But those are rare cases, and the desire to buy low and sell high is much more common than that. Unfortunately, it can also take a really good team and drop them a few notches. Call it the Norv Turner effect.
There are exceptions, of course. Michael Turner is a good player on a poor team, and his schedule isn't entirely favorable. If you could trade him for someone valuable, it could be a wise move. I'm not saying not to make trades or try to improve your team. But there's nothing wrong with actually hanging on to a player and reaping the benefits of his success while you let other owners suffer for their mistakes. That's an option, too. You don't have to buy or sell. You can simply score points.
Youtube Clip of the Week: If you make too many trades and get rid of your productive players, you might end up singing this song. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsxQ86Sztn0&feature=related
You can reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.
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