Members

Defensive Notes


Back to homepage

Tampa Bay: Home sweet home

Posted Oct. 01 at 08:31 AM

In the wake of week 4, some observations about fantasy defenses:

The Bucs' defense is virtually a must-start at home. Through two games it's given up an average of 222 total yards and 11.5 points to opposing offenses. In those games the Bucs have recorded 7 sacks, intercepted 5 passes, and forced 3 fumbles; they've also scored a defensive touchdown. On the road, meanwhile, they've given up nearly twice as many points and have about half as many sacks and turnovers. It's no fluke; they were the same way a year ago. The Bucs have a couple of tough home games later in the year -- Saints and Chargers -- but we're not going to bet against them being productive anyway.

Tennessee Titans: No. 1 fantasy defense? Depending on your scoring system, it's possible. They're allowing a league-low 11.5 points per game, they lead the league with 8 interceptions, and they're behind only the Eagles (17) in sacks (15). Sure, they've had a favorable schedule thus far, but it doesn't look that bad going forward either. Their next two games are against the Ravens and Kansas City, plus they've got Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, and Houston ahead. Don't be surprised if they cause some problems for Peyton Manning and Company, either, in their two meetings.

Waiver Wire Defense of the Week: There aren't many attractive prospects this week, with most of the worst defenses matching up with good offenses. On paper, a matchup with a recently turnover-prone Kyle Orton looks good for the Lions, but they're the Lions, and you don't want to get burned on them again after they went bust despite a glorious matchup with San Francisco's sack- and turnover-prone group two weeks ago.

Bottom line, this is a week to ride with your best defense week-in and week-out rather than attempt to be clever with a bottom-feeder with a good matchup. If you've got no other choice, though -- maybe you normally start the Jets, who are on a bye; you certainly don't start any of the other bye-week teams (Browns, Raiders, Rams) -- there are two worthy of consideration. (Again, this is only if you're desperate.)

The Broncos are home against Tampa Bay, a team that as noted above is far better at home. Their starting quarterback, of course, is Brian Griese, who will certainly be motivated to play well against the team that drafted him ...just as they'll be motivated to play well against him. Slight edge to Mike Shanahan's team here, although that's a pretty sorry defense in Denver.

Desperate option No. 2 is San Francisco, home against the Matt Cassel-led Patriots. At times, the Niners defense has looked OK this season. They got lit up by Drew Brees, but everyone gets lit up by Drew Brees. Cassel isn't going to make those throws.

On the flip side, one top defense to avoid this week is the Vikings. They're in New Orleans to face the Saints on Monday night, and Brees is on a serious roll right now. In the last two weeks he's taken one sack and committed one turnover, total, while throwing for nearly 800 yards and 4 TDs.

Other news and notes:

- Al Harris (spleen) may not be done for the year. He can probably be dropped in IDP formats, but maybe he'll be back by midseason. Good news for the Packers defense is that Tramon Williams held up OK without him last week. Bad news is that injuries are hitting Green Bay left and right. Lineman Cullen Jenkins is out for the year, A.J. Hawk might miss some time with a pulled groin, and the secondary is filled with limping players.

- You can't ignore the Jets giving up 35 second-half points to the Cardinals on Sunday, but don't overlook what they did in the first half, either, shutting Arizona out and forcing 5 turnovers, blocking a field goal, and scoring a defensive touchdown for the second straight week. Plus they have one of the league's best kick-return units. Nice post-bye schedule coming up, too: Cincinnati, Oakland, Kansas City.

- We talked last week about not giving up on top defenses too soon. That said, there are clear signs that New England and Jacksonville, while they should still end up being decent fantasy units, are not going to put up elite numbers this year. Nobody is encouraging you to dump them, but they are no longer every-week starts, either -- just slightly above-average groups who can be played when home or when the matchup dictates it, and benched otherwise. When you get lit up by offenses from Miami and Houston, you lose your right to be left in a lineup indefinitely.

--Andy Richardson

Readers' Comments

Add a Comment

Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.

To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.

Fantasy Index Weekly

Order the week 14 edition of FANTASY INDEX WEEKLY:

-- Notes for all 32 teams.
-- Analysis of all 16 games.
-- Forecasts for how every player will do in this week's games


Pick better starters with our weekend matchup preview. Learn which top players may be shut down and which sleepers may overachieve this week. Revised player rankings for each week's games for three scoring systems. One extra win per season may be the difference between finishing in the money and missing the playoffs.

Buy the Fantasy Index Weekly | Log In


Weekly


November 25 ReDrafter is available

The in-season version of the Fantasy Index Cheat Sheet -- the ReDrafter -- is perfect for scouting free agents and evaluating trade offers. Our September 9 cheat sheet includes revised season-long rankings, depth charts, rankings tailored to your scoring system, downloadable stat projections in Excel format and IDP cheat sheets. Only $3!

Buy the ReDrafter | Log In


Toolbox