Ian Allan

Below are our revised overall rankings following Sunday’s games. These aren’t “power rankings”, showing the teams ordered 1 through 32 based on overall ability. Instead, they’re the expected win-loss records for each team – a combination of how they’ve played so far and what’s left on their schedule.

For each of the 256 regular-season games, we assign a probability number – 99 percent if we’ve virtually certain a team will win, 55 percent of their a slight favorite, 30 percent if they’re a clear underdog, and so on. Games that have already been played are scored as either 0 (loss) or 100 (win).

When we do this for every team and every game, the Titans look like the team most likely to finish the regular season with the best record. We’ve got them at 12.2 projected wins. They’re followed by three NFC East teams, all projecting to finish with between 11 and 12 wins. The Panthers and Broncos also appear to be in line for byes in the playoffs.

The complete numbers, with projected total wins (out of 16) for each team:

Wins
12.2  Tennessee
11.8  NY Giants
11.7  Dallas
11.3  Washington
10.7  Carolina
10.6  Denver
10.4  New England
10.4  Buffalo
10.4  Pittsburgh
 9.5  Tampa Bay
 9.4  NY Jets
 9.3  San Diego
 9.2  Indianapolis
 9.2  Chicago
 9.2  New Orleans
 8.8  Philadelphia
 8.5  Arizona
 8.3  Jacksonville
 8.2  Minnesota
 7.8  Green Bay
 7.7  Miami
 7.0  Atlanta
 6.7  Baltimore
 6.5  Seattle
 6.2  Houston
 5.5  San Francisco
 4.9  Oakland
 4.3  Cleveland
 3.4  Cincinnati
 2.9  Kansas City
 2.5  St. Louis
 2.0  Detroit


Supporting documentation
The game-by-game numbers for each team, showing the likelihood of victory in each game. For Arizona’s next three games, for example, we have them as unlikely to win against Dallas (35%) or Carolina (25%) but a clear favorite at St. Louis (65%).

Arizona
win  @ San Francisco
win  vs.  Miami
loss  @ Washington
loss  @ NY Jets
win  vs.  Buffalo
35%  vs.  Dallas
25%  @ Carolina
65%  @ St. Louis
80%  vs.  San Francisco
45%  @ Seattle
35%  vs.  NY Giants
20%  @ Philadelphia
97%  vs.  St. Louis
55%  vs.  Minnesota
30%  @ New England
65%  vs.  Seattle

Atlanta 
win  vs.  Detroit
loss  @ Tampa Bay
win  vs.  Kansas City
loss  @ Carolina
win  @ Green Bay
40%  vs.  Chicago
20%  @ Philadelphia
50%  @ Oakland
40%  vs.  New Orleans
35%  vs.  Denver
40%  vs.  Carolina
15%  @ San Diego
20%  @ New Orleans
45%  vs.  Tampa Bay
10%  @ Minnesota
80%  vs.  St. Louis

Baltimore 
win  vs.  Cincinnati
win  vs.  Cleveland
loss  @ Pittsburgh
loss  vs.  Tennessee
20%  @ Indianapolis
45%  @ Miami
75%  vs.  Oakland
45%  @ Cleveland
45%  @ Houston
5%  @ NY Giants
40%  vs.  Philadelphia
60%  @ Cincinnati
35%  vs.  Washington
45%  vs.  Pittsburgh
5%  @ Dallas
50%  vs.  Jacksonville

Buffalo 
win  vs.  Seattle
win  @ Jacksonville
win  vs.  Oakland
win  @ St. Louis
loss  @ Arizona
50%  vs.  San Diego
50%  @ Miami
60%  vs.  NY Jets
35%  @ New England
80%  vs.  Cleveland
80%  @ Kansas City
85%  vs.  San Francisco
75%  vs.  Miami
45%  @ NY Jets
30%  @ Denver
45%  vs.  New England

Carolina 
win  @ San Diego
win  vs.  Chicago
loss  @ Minnesota
win  vs.  Atlanta
win  vs.  Kansas City
45%  @ Tampa Bay
60%  vs.  New Orleans
75%  vs.  Arizona
65%  @ Oakland
99%  vs.  Detroit
60%  @ Atlanta
45%  @ Green Bay
60%  vs.  Tampa Bay
70%  vs.  Denver
45%  @ NY Giants
50%  @ New Orleans

Chicago 
win  @ Indianapolis
loss  @ Carolina
loss  vs.  Tampa Bay
win  vs.  Philadelphia
win  @ Detroit
60%  @ Atlanta
55%  vs.  Minnesota
96%  vs.  Detroit
45%  vs.  Tennessee
45%  @ Green Bay
75%  @ St. Louis
35%  @ Minnesota
55%  vs.  Jacksonville
55%  vs.  New Orleans
55%  vs.  Green Bay
45%  @ Houston

Cincinnati 
loss  @ Baltimore
loss  vs.  Tennessee
loss  @ NY Giants
loss  vs.  Cleveland
loss  @ Dallas
15%  @ NY Jets
25%  vs.  Pittsburgh
25%  @ Houston
35%  vs.  Jacksonville
30%  vs.  Philadelphia
10%  @ Pittsburgh
40%  vs.  Baltimore
10%  @ Indianapolis
30%  vs.  Washington
35%  @ Cleveland
80%  vs.  Kansas City

Cleveland 
loss  vs.  Dallas
loss  vs.  Pittsburgh
loss  @ Baltimore
win  @ Cincinnati
15%  vs.  NY Giants
10%  @ Washington
15%  @ Jacksonville
55%  vs.  Baltimore
40%  vs.  Denver
20%  @ Buffalo
55%  vs.  Houston
30%  vs.  Indianapolis
10%  @ Tennessee
5%  @ Philadelphia
65%  vs.  Cincinnati
5%  @ Pittsburgh

Dallas 
win  @ Cleveland
win  vs.  Philadelphia
win  @ Green Bay
loss  vs.  Washington
win  vs.  Cincinnati
65%  @ Arizona
90%  @ St. Louis
75%  vs.  Tampa Bay
45%  @ NY Giants
50%  @ Washington
95%  vs.  San Francisco
90%  vs.  Seattle
55%  @ Pittsburgh
55%  vs.  NY Giants
95%  vs.  Baltimore
50%  @ Philadelphia

Denver 
win  @ Oakland
win  vs.  San Diego
win  vs.  New Orleans
loss  @ Kansas City
win  vs.  Tampa Bay
60%  vs.  Jacksonville
45%  @ New England
75%  vs.  Miami
60%  @ Cleveland
65%  @ Atlanta
80%  vs.  Oakland
45%  @ NY Jets
95%  vs.  Kansas City
30%  @ Carolina
70%  vs.  Buffalo
35%  @ San Diego

Detroit 
loss  @ Atlanta
loss  vs.  Green Bay
loss  @ San Francisco
loss  vs.  Chicago
2%  @ Minnesota
15%  @ Houston
20%  vs.  Washington
4%  @ Chicago
35%  vs.  Jacksonville
1%  @ Carolina
35%  vs.  Tampa Bay
20%  vs.  Tennessee
30%  vs.  Minnesota
2%  @ Indianapolis
30%  vs.  New Orleans
5%  @ Green Bay

Green Bay 
win  vs.  Minnesota
win  @ Detroit
loss  vs.  Dallas
loss  @ Tampa Bay
loss  vs.  Atlanta
45%  @ Seattle
55%  vs.  Indianapolis
35%  @ Tennessee
35%  @ Minnesota
55%  vs.  Chicago
45%  @ New Orleans
55%  vs.  Carolina
75%  vs.  Houston
35%  @ Jacksonville
45%  @ Chicago
95%  vs.  Detroit

Houston 
loss  @ Pittsburgh
loss  @ Tennessee
loss  @ Jacksonville
loss  vs.  Indianapolis
70%  vs.  Miami
85%  vs.  Detroit
75%  vs.  Cincinnati
30%  @ Minnesota
55%  vs.  Baltimore
25%  @ Indianapolis
45%  @ Cleveland
55%  vs.  Jacksonville
25%  @ Green Bay
50%  vs.  Tennessee
50%  @ Oakland
55%  vs.  Chicago

Indianapolis 
loss  vs.  Chicago
win  @ Minnesota
loss  vs.  Jacksonville
win  @ Houston
80%  vs.  Baltimore
45%  @ Green Bay
35%  @ Tennessee
55%  vs.  New England
45%  @ Pittsburgh
75%  vs.  Houston
25%  @ San Diego
70%  @ Cleveland
90%  vs.  Cincinnati
98%  vs.  Detroit
50%  @ Jacksonville
55%  vs.  Tennessee

Jacksonville 
loss  @ Tennessee
loss  vs.  Buffalo
win  @ Indianapolis
win  vs.  Houston
loss  vs.  Pittsburgh
40%  @ Denver
85%  vs.  Cleveland
65%  @ Cincinnati
65%  @ Detroit
55%  vs.  Tennessee
60%  vs.  Minnesota
45%  @ Houston
45%  @ Chicago
65%  vs.  Green Bay
50%  vs.  Indianapolis
50%  @ Baltimore

Kansas City 
loss  @ New England
loss  vs.  Oakland
loss  @ Atlanta
win  vs.  Denver
loss  @ Carolina
15%  vs.  Tennessee
5%  @ NY Jets
20%  vs.  Tampa Bay
3%  @ San Diego
20%  vs.  New Orleans
20%  vs.  Buffalo
20%  @ Oakland
5%  @ Denver
20%  vs.  San Diego
40%  vs.  Miami
20%  @ Cincinnati

Miami 
loss  vs.  NY Jets
loss  @ Arizona
win  @ New England
win  vs.  San Diego
30%  @ Houston
55%  vs.  Baltimore
50%  vs.  Buffalo
25%  @ Denver
60%  vs.  Seattle
65%  vs.  Oakland
40%  vs.  New England
60%  @ St. Louis
25%  @ Buffalo
70%  vs.  San Francisco
60%  @ Kansas City
25%  @ NY Jets

Minnesota 
loss  @ Green Bay
loss  vs.  Indianapolis
win  vs.  Carolina
loss  @ Tennessee
45%  @ New Orleans
98%  vs.  Detroit
45%  @ Chicago
70%  vs.  Houston
65%  vs.  Green Bay
45%  @ Tampa Bay
40%  @ Jacksonville
65%  vs.  Chicago
70%  @ Detroit
45%  @ Arizona
90%  vs.  Atlanta
45%  vs.  NY Giants

New England 
win  vs.  Kansas City
win  @ NY Jets
loss  vs.  Miami
win  @ San Francisco
40%  @ San Diego
55%  vs.  Denver
99%  vs.  St. Louis
45%  @ Indianapolis
65%  vs.  Buffalo
65%  vs.  NY Jets
60%  @ Miami
65%  vs.  Pittsburgh
45%  @ Seattle
80%  @ Oakland
70%  vs.  Arizona
55%  @ Buffalo

New Orleans 
win  vs.  Tampa Bay
loss  @ Washington
loss  @ Denver
win  vs.  San Francisco
55%  vs.  Minnesota
85%  vs.  Oakland
40%  @ Carolina
50%  vs.  San Diego
60%  @ Atlanta
80%  @ Kansas City
55%  vs.  Green Bay
45%  @ Tampa Bay
80%  vs.  Atlanta
45%  @ Chicago
70%  @ Detroit
50%  vs.  Carolina

NY Giants 
win  vs.  Washington
win  @ St. Louis
win  vs.  Cincinnati
win  vs.  Seattle
85%  @ Cleveland
99%  vs.  San Francisco
55%  @ Pittsburgh
55%  vs.  Dallas
55%  @ Philadelphia
95%  vs.  Baltimore
65%  @ Arizona
50%  @ Washington
65%  vs.  Philadelphia
45%  @ Dallas
55%  vs.  Carolina
55%  @ Minnesota

NY Jets 
win  @ Miami
loss  vs.  New England
loss  @ San Diego
win  vs.  Arizona
85%  vs.  Cincinnati
65%  @ Oakland
95%  vs.  Kansas City
40%  @ Buffalo
98%  vs.  St. Louis
35%  @ New England
30%  @ Tennessee
55%  vs.  Denver
60%  @ San Francisco
55%  vs.  Buffalo
45%  @ Seattle
75%  vs.  Miami

Oakland 
loss  vs.  Denver
win  @ Kansas City
loss  @ Buffalo
loss  vs.  San Diego
15%  @ New Orleans
35%  vs.  NY Jets
25%  @ Baltimore
50%  vs.  Atlanta
35%  vs.  Carolina
35%  @ Miami
20%  @ Denver
80%  vs.  Kansas City
10%  @ San Diego
20%  vs.  New England
50%  vs.  Houston
15%  @ Tampa Bay

Philadelphia 
win  vs.  St. Louis
loss  @ Dallas
win  vs.  Pittsburgh
loss  @ Chicago
loss  vs.  Washington
80%  @ San Francisco
80%  vs.  Atlanta
45%  @ Seattle
45%  vs.  NY Giants
70%  @ Cincinnati
60%  @ Baltimore
80%  vs.  Arizona
35%  @ NY Giants
95%  vs.  Cleveland
40%  @ Washington
50%  vs.  Dallas

Pittsburgh 
win  vs.  Houston
win  @ Cleveland
loss  @ Philadelphia
win  vs.  Baltimore
win  @ Jacksonville
75%  @ Cincinnati
45%  vs.  NY Giants
45%  @ Washington
55%  vs.  Indianapolis
65%  vs.  San Diego
90%  vs.  Cincinnati
35%  @ New England
45%  vs.  Dallas
55%  @ Baltimore
30%  @ Tennessee
95%  vs.  Cleveland

San Diego 
loss  vs.  Carolina
loss  @ Denver
win  vs.  NY Jets
win  @ Oakland
loss  @ Miami
60%  vs.  New England
50%  @ Buffalo
50%  @ New Orleans
97%  vs.  Kansas City
35%  @ Pittsburgh
75%  vs.  Indianapolis
85%  vs.  Atlanta
90%  vs.  Oakland
80%  @ Kansas City
45%  @ Tampa Bay
65%  vs.  Denver

San Francisco 
loss  vs.  Arizona
win  @ Seattle
win  vs.  Detroit
loss  @ New Orleans
loss  vs.  New England
20%  vs.  Philadelphia
1%  @ NY Giants
50%  vs.  Seattle
20%  @ Arizona
75%  vs.  St. Louis
5%  @ Dallas
15%  @ Buffalo
40%  vs.  NY Jets
30%  @ Miami
55%  @ St. Louis
35%  vs.  Washington

Seattle 
loss  @ Buffalo
loss  vs.  San Francisco
win  vs.  St. Louis
loss  @ NY Giants
55%  vs.  Green Bay
25%  @ Tampa Bay
50%  @ San Francisco
55%  vs.  Philadelphia
40%  @ Miami
55%  vs.  Arizona
55%  vs.  Washington
10%  @ Dallas
55%  vs.  New England
60%  @ St. Louis
55%  vs.  NY Jets
35%  @ Arizona

St. Louis 
loss  @ Philadelphia
loss  vs.  NY Giants
loss  @ Seattle
loss  vs.  Buffalo
2%  @ Washington
10%  vs.  Dallas
1%  @ New England
35%  vs.  Arizona
2%  @ NY Jets
25%  @ San Francisco
25%  vs.  Chicago
40%  vs.  Miami
3%  @ Arizona
40%  vs.  Seattle
45%  vs.  San Francisco
20%  @ Atlanta

Tampa Bay 
loss  @ New Orleans
win  vs.  Atlanta
win  @ Chicago
win  vs.  Green Bay
loss  @ Denver
55%  vs.  Carolina
75%  vs.  Seattle
25%  @ Dallas
80%  @ Kansas City
55%  vs.  Minnesota
65%  @ Detroit
55%  vs.  New Orleans
40%  @ Carolina
55%  @ Atlanta
55%  vs.  San Diego
85%  vs.  Oakland

Tennessee 
win  vs.  Jacksonville
win  @ Cincinnati
win  vs.  Houston
win  vs.  Minnesota
win  @ Baltimore
85%  @ Kansas City
65%  vs.  Indianapolis
65%  vs.  Green Bay
55%  @ Chicago
45%  @ Jacksonville
70%  vs.  NY Jets
80%  @ Detroit
90%  vs.  Cleveland
50%  @ Houston
70%  vs.  Pittsburgh
45%  @ Indianapolis

Washington 
loss  @ NY Giants
win  vs.  New Orleans
win  vs.  Arizona
win  @ Dallas
win  @ Philadelphia
98%  vs.  St. Louis
90%  vs.  Cleveland
80%  @ Detroit
55%  vs.  Pittsburgh
50%  vs.  Dallas
45%  @ Seattle
50%  vs.  NY Giants
65%  @ Baltimore
70%  @ Cincinnati
60%  vs.  Philadelphia
65%  @ San Francisco

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