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Houston (at Ind.) This is a good matchup for the Texans, although not as good as you might think. Since getting Bob Sanders back from injury, the Colts have played pretty well defensively, allowing just 3 TDs in their last two games. They're improved against the run (24th, after being last a little over a month ago), and are very good against the pass (5th), giving up just 2 passing scores all season. Houston has some concerns on offense right now, plus they've never won in Indianapolis and are just 1-12 against the Colts in their history. ... Steve Slaton was one of the rookie sensations the first half of the season, averaging 90 total yards per game and scoring 6 TDs. Very impressive for a 5-foot-9, 201-pounder who figured to be a change-of-pace option, and now Gary Kubiak thinks that production may have come at a price. "He was really worn down, to be honest with you," said Kubiak, after giving Slaton only four

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carries against Baltimore, compared to 11 combined for Ryan Moats and Ahman Green. "He struggled last week in practice -- sharpness, speed, those types of things. We just felt like we were going to do everything we could to split those reps up. I would hope that him not playing as many reps this week gets him back to full speed. The kid needed a break." There's little question that Slaton is the team's best runner; he had a 58-yard touchdown against the Ravens wiped out by a holding penalty. This development, however, makes him a shaky option going forward. From weeks 3 through 9, Slaton averaged 19 touches per game. He carried 16 times for 93 yards and 2 TDs in the week 5 loss to the Colts. If he's instead down around 10-12 touches, which seems likely, he'll be more apt to put up 50-60 total yards per game. Straight off the numbers the Texans should run for about 120 yards in this game, production that could be divided between as many as three players. The team could also go with the more rugged Green around the goal line. If that happens, and we think it will, Green, who rushed for 47 yards in the earlier meeting, has value this week, particularly in a TD-only format. The Colts have allowed 12 TDs rushing versus only 2 TDs passing, by far the most lopsided ratio in the league. We can't rule out the possibility of Slaton getting some of those opportunities, but there's definitely some risk involved given Kubiak's desire to lighten his load. The best we can say for Slaton is the Texans could -- probably will -- emphasize the run this week. They've faced elite run defenses from the Vikings and Ravens the last two games, and thrown 4 interceptions in those games. There should be plenty of rushing production to go around in this one, although that scenario presumes the team won't fall way behind. ... It's a below-average matchup for the passing game, but we're not dropping Houston's key performers too low anyway. Some of Indianapolis' favorable ranking is based on schedule and their struggles against the run; Sage Rosenfels threw for 246 yards and a TD in the earlier meeting. The team might like to limit his pass attempts (and opportunities for turnovers; he has 8 in three games), but that will be difficult if the Colts put up a lot of points of their own (which is how we see this game going). The odds are against him throwing for more than 1 TD and his turnover potential is high, but Rosenfels could be pretty good anyway. That forecast applies to the top pass catchers: Andre Johnson (9 for 131 in the first meeting), Owen Daniels (5 for 47) and Kevin Walter (just 2 for 36 in week 5, but 4 for 69 and a TD in this meeting a year ago). There may not be more than 1 (at most) scoring pass to go around, but they'll account for virtually all of the receiving production -- on the season, 77 percent of the passing yards have gone through those three players.

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