This week's Fantasy Index Weekly is available now.
Posted Nov. 19 at 10:57 AM
Carolina (at Atl) The Panthers are 8-2, but they look like they could fall apart. Two weeks in a row, they've struggled against two of the worst teams in the league -- Oakland and Detroit. And they were shaky at times in each of their previous three games, getting crushed at Tampa Bay, and getting outplayed in the first halves of their games at home against Arizona and New Orleans. And Jake Delhomme is struggling right now -- playing about as poorly as any quarterback in the league. So we're labeling this a slightly below-average matchup for the
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Panthers offense. We expect them to come up a little short on Sunday against an Atlanta team that's 4-1 at the Georgia Dome. And Carolina has a rough upcoming schedule with two ugly matchups -- at Green Bay and at the Giants -- and none of the three other games looking particularly easy -- at home against Tampa Bay and Denver and New Orleans on the road. ... The Panthers no doubt will lead with their running game. That's the best thing they've got going right now, with the one-two punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart causing headaches for opposing defenses. Carolina ran for 162 yards at Oakland, and it ran for 264 yards and 3 TDs on Sunday against Detroit. For the season, Williams is up at 86 total yards per game, while Stewart is at 53 yards per game. And they've scored 8 and 6 TDs (Williams has gotten in the end zone four games in a row). They potentially could do some damage against an Atlanta defense that ranks only 22nd against the run. The Falcons allowed 124 yards and 2 TDs on the ground Sunday against a Denver team that's probably got one of the bottom 5 running games in the league (the Broncos were without Michael Pittman, Selvin Young, Andre Hall and Ryan Torain). With that in mind, it's definitely possible that Carolina's tailback tandem will grind out about 160 yards and 2 TDs, lifting the Panthers to a crucial win. Carolina is one of the few teams that has scored more touchdowns rushing (12) than passing (11), while Atlanta's defense is similar -- almost as many rushing touchdowns (11) as passing (13). We see it as a slightly above-average matchup for those guys. ... But Delhomme is struggling. In his last two games, he's completed only 17 of 46 passes for 170 yards, with twice as many interceptions (4) as touchdowns (2). And both of those games were against bad teams (Oakland and Detroit are a combined 2-18). He's just not getting it done right now. So even against an average Atlanta defense, we don't have much confidence that Delhomme is going to pass for more than about 190 yards and 1 TD. Steve Smith is always a threat to turn a short catch into a 70-yard touchdown, but we believe the Panthers will try to lean heavily on their running game. Below-average situation for Delhomme. ... Smith has caught only 7 passes for 68 yards in his last two games, but it's dangerous to ever underestimate him. He's one of the league's true difference-makers, and Delhomme will try to get the ball to him. In each of his previous five games, Smith had at least 96 receiving yards; 4 TDs in those five games as well. In week 4 against Atlanta, Smith caught 6 passes for 96 yards, with a 56-yard touchdown. ... Muhsin Muhammad has also struggled recently, but he's Carolina's clear No. 2 receiving option, and he's having a pretty good year. He's averaging 56 yards per game, with 3 TDs, putting him on pace to finish the season with about 900 yards.
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