Challenge Contests -by Justin Eleff
I blew it, readers.
One week ago I was optimistic about my chances to make a push in the Football Challenge, after weathering the blahs of Weeks 5 and 6 and having a full cast available to start in Week 7. Good health. Few byes. Even favorable matchups.
Which, you might guess, is where I blew it.
The difference between a week ago (199-200-201 in the overall standings) and today (449-450-451) is mostly this:
519 yards passing, 7.2 yards per attempt, 3 TDs
Those aren’t numbers from one monster game posted by a QB whose team played five quarters. Those are the combined numbers of my chosen three: Carson Palmer, Jon Kitna and Eli Manning.
Mostly where I blew it is here:
354 yards passing, 14.2 yards per attempt, 6 TDs
Which you may recognize as indeed being from one monster game, posted by a QB who only played three quarters. Tom Brady. Tom Brady, who’d been a must-start every week of the season prior to Sunday, and who costs slightly less salary-wise than Palmer.
Oh, I had my reasons.
New England was playing at a dreadful Miami team, a team that’s almost indescribably bad against the run. And Laurence Maroney was finally making his return, too. I figured Brady would throw 2 TDs early, the Pats would put themselves ahead by 20 – they do that every week – and the second half would be run left, run middle, run right.
I was right about some of this. Brady did throw 5 of his 6 TD passes in the first half.
And meanwhile Cincinnati was playing at a likewise dreadful Jets team, another team that’s almost indescribably bad against the run. But Cincy had aces in its holes. Rudi Johnson was not making his return, and the Bengals’ D is bad enough to keep the J-E-T-S in the G-A-M-E. I figured Palmer would sling it all day long, the game would go into the 30s and he’d have his monster numbers for sure.
Again, I was right about some of this. Final score: Bengals 38, Jets 31. And Cincy needed 3 late TDs to win, so Palmer did sling it for a long while. Hell, HE HAD A GOOD GAME: 10.8 yards per attempt.
Just, you know. Not 354, 14.2 and 6.
Our man Ian Allan had Brady down as the top QB in the NFL for Week 7.
I was too smart for all of that, by a factor of zero.
Look, sometimes you’ll read a matchup incorrectly. That happens. This year alone I’ve purchased Rudi Johnson to own his 17-carries-for-9-yards effort at SEA and Willis McGahee to own his 25-for-61 vs. STL. (Platoon RBs, my tush.) Hey, and Kurt Warner to own his elbow injury and the reemergence of six-time Pro Bowler Tim Rattay.
But the lesson here is a simple one. It’s fundamental. It’s so very basic, so obvious, that it’s easy to overlook or even intentionally ignore:
Play your best players.
A couple of weeks ago I advocated dropping Cedric Benson without looking at his matchups, because Cedric Benson = bad football player.
Now I’m advocating starting Tom Brady every week without looking at his matchups, either, because Tom Brady = great football player.
A week too late for me, sure, but not for those of you who are smarter than me. If the overall standings mean anything, there were 250 of you last week alone.
I’m not big on set lineups, on finding a mix of 20 starters and sticking with that mix all the way down the stretch (once the last of the byes are out of the way). I don’t mean to suggest that matchups should never factor into your decision-making.
But, please, if you own Brady, start him.
Same goes for Stephen Gostkowski and Randy Moss among Patriots alone, and for these other players around the league (listed alphabetically by surname):
KICKERS
Nick Folk, DAL
Adam Vinatieri, IND
(Which does make for a set lineup of kickers, Gostkowski included.)
QUARTERBACKS
Jon Kitna, DET
(For reasons including his salary and the dearth of playable cheapos. Note that the Bucs’ D has been good at taking WRs out of opposing gameplans this year. Kitna should explode in Week 8 at the very mediocre Bears … or maybe he’ll finally take the sack that ends his career.)
RUNNING BACKS
Joseph Addai, IND
Adrian Peterson, MIN
LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
(R.I.P., Ronnie Brown.)
TIGHT ENDS
Dallas Clark, IND
Antonio Gates, SD
(Gates is obvious, although I wonder how many good challenge teams own him given the price tag. Partial answer: 2 teams, total, among the top 100 overall in the Football Challenge. Clark is not as obvious, but he’s tearing it up in the Brandon Stokley roll from 2004; Clark has scored in 5 straight games. Actually, I own him for exactly the same reason I owned Stokley in ’04: Thank you, Thursday night cheat game.)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Braylon Edwards, CLE
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN
Brandon Marshall, DEN
(Rarely have I been so pleased with an endgame pick I made in so many different places; Marshall is now entrenched as the Broncos’ No. 1, and he’s playing like it. OK, he’s also heading for a DUI-related suspension, but I own him everywhere. All challenge teams, all draft rosters. Him and, on the draft rosters, Michael Turner, in a longstanding tradition built on the belief that Tomlinson will, someday, miss a few games. Elsewhere, if Houshmandzadeh stays hot and happens to break the all-time record for TD catches in a season, think maybe they should designate the record as belonging to T.J., not Housh…? I have a pet theory that you can generally tell which prospects will pan out by looking at their names alone. Kevin Durant? Obviously yes. Yi Jianlian? Obviously no. Jeff Green looks boring, Acie Law electric. Back to football, as of now the record belongs to Jerry Rice. And it’s soon to be held by T.J. Housh… Right, by Randy Moss.)
And that, in short, is the extent of my wisdom this week.
Play your best players. Drop your worst ones. Never let Good Matchup stand in for Great Player.
Maybe you had all of this down pat already. I wish someone had told me, though, in time to do some good.
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