Fantasy Football Index Cheat Sheet Updates

FANTASY INDEX™ WEEKLY -- PREVIEW OF WEEK SEVENTEEN GAMES

DECEMBER 28, 2006

Thanks for ordering the December 28 version of the Fantasy Index Weekly from FANTASY FOOTBALL INDEX. This update is intended to help you decide on players to start and pickup prior to week seventeen's games.

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YARDAGE LEAGUE PLAYER RANKINGS are based on the following scoring system:

• YARDAGE: 6 points for run/catch TDs, 4 for TD throws, 1 point for every 20 passing yards and 1 point for every 10 rushing/receiving yards. Rankings don't change significantly if TD passes are increased or decreased by 1 point, nor if the yardage parameters are changed to 15 and 30 yards.
• D/STs graded as follows: 1 point for sacks and takeaways; 6 pts for TDs scored on turnovers and kick returns.

Yardage Leagues: Rankings for Week 17 games
Updated December 28, 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time

In the Week 17 Fantasy Index Weekly:
Players who'll benefit -- or be hurt -- by teams taking it easy in week 17. A slumping running back (Chester Taylor) who should get back on track. Players who will emerge or bounce back in 2007.

Arizona (at S.D.):
Matt Leinart's season is over (shoulder sprain), so Kurt Warner will reclaim the starting role he had at the beginning of the season. Warner should be plenty motivated; a good game might help his job security for 2007. Unfortunately for Warner and this entire offense, the Chargers have the kind of fast, aggressive defense that drove him to the sidelines in the first place. San Diego leads the NFL with 60 sacks, and Warner took 12 sacks in his four starts at the beginning of the season. The Cardinals probably aren't going to catch a break with San Diego resting any starters, either. There's little chance the Ravens will lose at home to Buffalo, so San Diego will need this game to avoid losing the No. 1 seed for the playoffs. Perhaps if the Chargers have a big lead in the second half, they'll call the dogs off earlier than usual, but their guys are going to play. Leinart's sprain, by the way, was considered minor; it won't require surgery. ... Edgerrin James has played very well over the past month; after not rushing for 100 yards in the season's first 11 games, he's surpassed that mark three times in the past four weeks. It's unlikely he'll keep that success going here. The Chargers are ranked 9th against the run, and although they've slipped lately -- Shaun Alexander ran for 140 yards and 2 TDs last week, and Tatum and Mike Bell combined for 162 yards two weeks before that -- they've managed that ranking while facing more top runners week in and week out than any other team. Larry Johnson (twice), Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Rudi Johnson, Willis McGahee -- San Diego has faced all these backs and only Johnson (once), Tatum Bell and Alexander have gone over 100 yards. James might find his way up into the 70-80 yard range, at best. He also figures to lose out on any carries around the goal line. Last week he remained in the game the first time the Cardinals were down there, getting stuffed on third-and-1 from the 6-yard line. From then on, James was replaced by Marcel Shipp (who was untouched on a 5-yard TD run). Shipp and J.J. Arrington will play on some passing downs, which will be even more frequent if San Diego jumps out to a big lead (which is possible). All in all, a below-average matchup for James. ... Warner entered the game against San Francisco with a 20-6 lead, enjoying a much better situation for a quarterback than he's likely to face here. He looked fine while completing 9 of 13 passes (mostly of the short variety) for 105 yards, but only 11 teams have fewer sacks on the season than San Francisco, while San Diego, again, is No. 1 in that category. Warner is capable of throwing for a bunch of yards and maybe a TD or two in the latter stages of a blowout loss, but it seems just as possible that he'll get buried by this pass rush. San Diego hasn't allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for even 200 yards since Carson Palmer in week 10. Don't expect big production out of Warner. ... This is also a lesser matchup for Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but you can't drop either player too far. Fitzgerald in particular has been on a tear since returning from injury, averaging nearly 6 catches for 82 in his last seven games, with TDs in three of his past four. Fitzgerald is also only 87 yards away from 1,000 receiving yards; the team will probably make an extra effort to get him up over that total this week. A year ago the Cardinals got Fitzgerald and Boldin the necessary receptions in week 17 to make them the first pair of 100-catch receivers on the same team since Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey did it for the Broncos in 2000. Boldin hasn't scored in his last four games but his receiving yardage has increased slightly in each; Warner just missed him on a deep throw against the 49ers. Both Fitzgerald and Boldin, incidentally, posted similar numbers with Warner as the starter in the season's first four games. Fitzgerald had 1 fewer reception and 26 more receiving yards in those games; both caught 1 TD.

Atlanta (at Phil.):
If either the Panthers or Giants win their games (and both are favored) the Falcons will be eliminated from playoff contention before their game even starts. That's a bad sign. When Atlanta played as an also-ran in week 17 last year, it came up with a truly pitiful effort, giving up 165 rushing yards to DeShaun Foster and losing 44-11 to Carolina. After that game, Michael Vick admitted that he gave only a half-hearted effort. And as poorly as the Falcons are playing right now anyway, it would be a surprise if they could suddenly rise up and knock off a Philadelphia team that's won four in a row and needs a win to clinch the NFC East title. Atlanta managed only 3 points and 177 yards of offense last week in a crushing 10-3 loss to Carolina. The Falcons have lost six of their last eight games, and they've scored more than one offensive touchdown in only three of those games. A lot of their players are annoyed with their game plans, and it looks like the coaching staff will be flushed out after the season. ... Philadelphia has been woefully soft at times against the run. Only six teams have allowed more rushing yards. Contrast that to the Falcons, who rank No. 1 in rushing at 185 yards per game. But we don't see a 200-plus yard rushing day in the cards. The Eagles have played better against the run recently, and the Falcons are running on fumes now. They look like a team that's given up. Their running game has underachieved three weeks in a row, averaging only 116 rushing yards in those games. And the Falcons also have scored only 3 rushing TDs in their last seven games. We're putting them down for about 130 rushing yards in this game, and that production should be divided fairly evenly between Vick, Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood. Dunn hasn't made much of an impact since early in the season. He had a 90-yard touchdown run against the Giants back in the fifth game, but since that time, he's averaged only 52 rushing yards and 3.3 yards per carry. He weighs only 180 pounds and will be 32 years old at the end of next week; the guess here is that the new coaching staff (assuming Jim Mora is fired) will release Dunn and obtain a new featured runner. Norwood has tremendous speed -- he's probably the fastest running back in the league -- but Norwood is too thinly built to be a full-time player. ... While the Falcons' running game has tailed off, the team's passing attack hasn't really improved. The team ranks last in passing at 162 yards per game. Vick completed only 9 of 20 passes for 102 yards last week, with 2 interceptions. It will be a surprise if he passes for even 150 yards against a Philadelphia defense that's much better against the pass (9th) than run (26th). Vick played perhaps his worst game of last season in the week 17 mail-it-in loss, passing for only 115 yards and not even challenging the Panthers defense with a single rushing attempt. And that type of lackluster effort might be repeated here; in a Wednesday press conference, Vick mentioned that he was interested in getting back from this December 31 game before midnight so that he could attend a New Year's party -- doesn't sound like a guy who cares much about winning a football game. Vick has completed under 50 percent of his passes in each of his games against Philadelphia the last two years. ... Ashley Lelie (shoulder) is out, so Roddy White will start at wide receiver in this game. All three of the team's top receivers, including Michael Jenkins, are averaging 28-29 yards per game. They're not making an impact. With Vick at quarterback, that's unlikely to change next year -- he's not particularly accurate, and he doesn't seem to be good at reading defenses. Perhaps one of these receivers -- Jenkins, most likely -- could be pretty good if the Falcons traded away Vick and went with Matt Schaub at quarterback, who's more of a pocket passer. ... Tight end Alge Crumpler is averaging a team-high 48 receiving yards per game. Both Crumpler and Jenkins have caught 7 of the team's 19 TD passes. ... These teams have played four years in a row, including two playoff games. The Eagles won the first three of those meetings. Atlanta beat Philadelphia 17-14 last year when these teams met in the first Monday Night Football game of the season.

Baltimore (vs. Buff.):
Jonathan Ogden (toe) is banged up and won't play, but the Ravens probably won't hold any healthy players out of this game. They still have an outside chance at being a No. 1 seed, and more importantly they need to win to guarantee themselves a first-round bye. They'll play hard, and as well as they're playing right now, they should win this game comfortably. ... Jamal Lewis should have a big game. He's playing pretty well, and the Bills are a lot worse against the run (28th) than pass (8th). That's how to attack them. The Bills have allowed over 130 rushing yards in 9 of their last 11 games, with 12 TD runs in those games. Lewis, meanwhile, has averaged 79 rushing yards since Brian Billick took over the team's play-calling duties, with 9 TDs in nine games. Lewis has scored in five of his last six games. All indications are, in other words, that he'll run for about 100 yards and a touchdown in this game. ... It looks like a below-average matchup for Baltimore's passing game. The Bills are above-average against the pass, allowing just 205 yards per game, with 18 TD passes. They've got some good personnel in their secondary, and teams have also tended to attack them with the run (because Buffalo is a little light up front). In eight of Buffalo's 15 games, it's allowed fewer than 200 passing yards, and 18 TD passes is one better than the league average. The Bills have allowed either one or no touchdown passes in 10 of their 15 games. ... Steve McNair is playing well. He left a game very early against Cleveland two weeks ago, but otherwise he's averaged 251 passing yards in his last seven games, with 9 TDs. The worry here is that the Ravens will opt to emphasize the run. That's how other teams have attacked Buffalo. Also, if the Ravens get a comfortable lead, they may be tempted to let Kyle Boller play the final quarter. As well as Baltimore's defense is playing, it's always capable of blowing open a game with a few big plays. ... Mark Clayton is outperforming Derrick Mason. Clayton holds a 5-2 advantage in touchdowns, and he's got almost 200 more receiving yards. The youngster has finished with more yards in six of the team's last eight games. Clayton is currently sitting at 913 yards; he may lobby the team to help him reach the 1,000-yard mark. ... For whatever reason, Todd Heap's role in the red zone has declined. He caught 5 of the 10 TD passes thrown in the team's first seven games. In the last eight games, he's caught only 1 of 11. Either opponents have made more of an effort to key on him in that area, or McNair has perhaps gotten more comfortable throwing to the team's wide receivers. Setting aside touchdowns, Heap's production has been fairly consistent all year; he's averaging 47 yards per game. Heap was down at 40 yards per game during the first half of the season, but the entire offense wasn't as productive at that time -- all along, he's accounted for about 21 percent of the team's receiving yards. ... Those in dynasty leagues may want to acquire Demetrius Williams, the receiver that the team drafted in the fourth round. He's got talent, and he's starting to pick things up. He's been playing more recently, and he's making an impact. He's scored in back-to-back games, and the touchdown he scored against Pittsburgh didn't even come out of a three-receiver set -- it was a one-receiver set, with Clayton and Mason on the sidelines. Williams is similar in some ways to Chad Johnson, and not just because they played their college ball in the same state. Williams has the same kind of a build (6-2, 197) and seems to have some of the same knack for making plays downfield. He averaged 17.9 yards per catch and scored 10 TDs his final year at Oregon, and he's averaged 19.1 yards per reception on his 20 catches as a rookie. He's different than Mason and Clayton, who are both shorter guys and better suited to work underneath routes. In a keeper league, Williams might arguably be one of the 60 best wide receivers available right now.

Buffalo (at Balt.):
When Buffalo played at Baltimore two years ago, it lost 20-6, and this could be the same type of game. The Bills have played fairly well recently, but their offense is average at best, while Baltimore's defense is emerging as the league's best. The Ravens have allowed fewer yards and points than anyone, and their playing their best ball right now. They've won eight of their last nine, and they've allowed only 57 points in their last six games. ... J.P. Losman has made progress this year. He's played well enough (particularly recently), that he'll definitely be the team's opening-day starter at quarterback next year. But he should struggle in this game. Losman is still prone to hanging onto the ball too long, resulting in sacks and interceptions, and that style of play matches up poorly against Baltimore's high-pressure defense. The Ravens rank No. 2 in sacks right now and have allowed opponents to complete a league-low 54.6 percent of their passes. Baltimore also has allowed an impressive ratio of 15 TD passes versus 26 interceptions. The best we can offer on Losman's behalf is that the Ravens have allowed 213 passing yards per game, which ranks only 11th in the league. ... Avoid Willis McGahee. The Ravens are simply crushing opposing running backs right now. Only Minnesota is allowing fewer rushing yards or yards per carry right now, and Baltimore has allowed a league-low 5 rushing TDs. In their last six games, the Ravens have allowed only one running back (Larry Johnson) to go for 50 plus yards and haven't given up any rushing touchdowns. Sounds like about 40 yards is what to expect from McGahee, with maybe a 20 percent change of a touchdown. ... Against this defense, it's obviously a below-average matchup for Lee Evans, but not quite as poor as you might expect. Evans is a heck of a receiver. He's scored 6 TDs in his last eight games and has gotten in the end zone three weeks in a row. He's caught half of the team's 12 TD passes in the last eight weeks. And while Baltimore's defense is tough, the touchdowns it's allowed have tended to come through the air. The Ravens have allowed at least one touchdown pass in 11 of their last 13 games, and all but one of the 15 TD passes allowed by this defense have gone to wide receivers. In other words, straight off the numbers, it appears as if Evans has about a 50 percent chance of scoring a touchdown in this game. ... Peerless Price has very little value. Considering the minimal impact he's made, it will be no surprise if the team cuts him loose in the offseason and acquires somebody else to fill that starting job. However, neither of the other two main receivers on the roster (Josh Reed, Roscoe Parrish) look suited to be a starter either. Reed is best as a slot receiver on third downs. Parrish weighs only 168 pounds and has substantial value as a punt returner, so the Bills won't want to use him full-time as a wide receiver. For this season, Reed has actually been more productive than Price. Both have scored 2 TDs, but Reed has missed four games. And Price is averaging only 25 yards per game, 8 fewer than Reed. ... Robert Royal has been more involved in the offense recently. He had scored in three straight games prior to Sunday, and he's caught 2-3 passes three weeks in a row. Royal didn't score in any of his first 12 games, and he caught more than 1 pass in only two of those games. But we have no interest in recommending Royal against this defense. Baltimore has allowed only 1 TD pass to a tight end all year.

Carolina (at N.O.):
The Saints have wrapped up the NFC's No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, so they'll likely hold out some starters. Coach Sean Payton hinted as much, even comparing the game to an exhibition. Carolina's motivation, meanwhile, will be influenced by the Giants' game at Washington on Saturday night. A Giants win eliminates the Panthers, but a loss means Carolina will still be alive when their game kicks off. If you're thinking about starting the likes of Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith or Keyshawn Johnson, cross your fingers and hope that the Giants lose. Also hope that Delhomme's thumb holds up. He's missed the last three games, but he should be able to go on Sunday -- he practiced on Wednesday. Without Delhomme, the team went with a wishbone-like offense at Atlanta, running the ball 52 times and even lining up DeAngelo Williams at quarterback for seven snaps. The team's confidence in Chris Weinke is that shaky. Weinke attempted only 7 passes in that game. ... The Panthers should rely on the run more than usual in this game -- probably so if Delhomme is at quarterback and definitely if it's Weinke. The run worked well for the team last week in Atlanta -- it reduces turnovers and shortens the game -- and the Saints' defense is a lot weaker against the run (24th) than pass (3rd). Considering the Saints may be on auto-pilot in this game, the Panthers might be able to simply grind out a win in this one. They had arguably their best game of the year running the ball in the earlier meeting between these teams, with DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams combining for 167 yards on 24 carries in a 21-18 win. Foster scored on a 43-yard run late to ice that game. ... Regardless of how often the Saints run the ball, we like Steve Smith. He's a touchdown waiting to happen, and he has a history of frying this defense. He's scored in each of his last three games against them, and he caught 10 passes in the week 4 meeting. New Orleans may be allowing 194 passing yards per game, which is 3rd-fewest in the league, but it's also allowed 24 TD passes, which ties as 3rd-most. We aren't interested in slotting many receivers ahead of Smith, particularly with the Saints potentially not even trying.

Chicago (vs. G.B.):
The Bears will try to win this game -- Lovie Smith cited beating the Packers as a key goal the day he was hired -- but it's less clear whether they'll have a significant fantasy player. Rex Grossman, Thomas Jones and Muhsin Muhammad are all expected to start, but it's even more likely that those players won't be around much after halftime, if at all. After the Lions game last week, in which the Bears pulled Grossman, Jones and Muhammad early in the fourth quarter of a 21-20 game, Smith said "We wanted to win and we wanted to look at a few other players." Pulling starters might not have a major effect on the outcome -- there's not much dropoff (if any) from Grossman to Brian Griese, or Jones to Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson -- but it could result in none of the team's fantasy prospects playing more than a half. Don't count on any of this team's regular starters here. ... The Bears' best prospect this week -- outside of their defense -- is probably Cedric Benson, but there's some risk associated with starting him. You'd expect Jones, who's battled side, ankle and groin injuries, to sit out or play sparingly, but that was what most expected a week ago and Jones ended up getting 12 carries for 62 yards, compared to 15 for 49 from Benson. We'll make the same prediction this week -- that most of the work will go to Benson -- but the risk remains that Jones will start and play a few series, and that Adrian Peterson (who had a 2-yard TD run against Detroit) will cut into Benson's playing time, as well. Green Bay's rushing defense is just average (14th), and even worse (20th) during the second half of the season. It's played respectably at times, though, including shutting down Chester Taylor (15 for 49) last week. In week 1 at Lambeau (a 26-0 Bears win), Jones and Benson combined to rush 32 times for 97 yards -- just 3.0 per carry. Should Benson get most of the carries he could finish up around 80-90 yards and a touchdown, but the chance of those carries being split between two or three runners makes him a risky play unless you have no other option. Benson's 3.2 yards-per-carry average against Detroit (compared to 5.2 for Jones) makes it seem even less likely he'll have a big game here. ... Grossman got his season off to an impressive start against the Packers in week 1: 18 of 26 for 262 yards and a TD. He'd be worth consideration here, too, if we were confident he'd play the entire game. Only two teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Packers (24). The best guess, though, is that Griese will play a quarter of the game or more, and the overall passing production won't be enough to warrant starting either player in a reduced capacity. This game has also been switched to prime time -- 7:15 p.m. locally -- so conditions could definitely work against the passing game this week. Even if Smith comes out and says either Grossman or Griese will play the entire game, that player probably would manage just average or slightly below-average numbers. Grossman has played fairly well the last three weeks -- 5 TDs and no turnovers while completing 60 percent of his passes -- so there's little question he'll start this team's first playoff game. The sense, though, was that Griese came into the game against Detroit less to protect Grossman from injury than to get Griese some game action in case the Bears feel the need to make a switch during the postseason. Griese ended up completing 5 of 8 passes on a 72-yard drive for what proved to be the game-winning field goal. Grossman was just average against the Lions; Bernard Berrian let a well-thrown bomb bounce off his hands, but Grossman also missed a wide-open Muhammad on a play that would have gone for a 37-yard touchdown. ... The same uncertainty about playing time applies to the other components of Chicago's passing game this week. Veterans Muhammad and Desmond Clark could both be candidates for an early exit; Muhammad has scored just once in his last six games anyway, averaging just 45 receiving yards over that span. Clark had a big game two weeks ago against Tampa Bay (7 for 125, 2 TDs), but he hasn't had more than 38 receiving yards in any of his other previous eight games. Both players had big games at Lambeau Field in week 1. Muhammad caught 6 passes for 102 yards, Clark 5 for 77. Grossman was playing at a higher level then, however, and conditions were friendlier for the passing game than they're likely to be here. The Packers have also been improved against the pass the last seven weeks (7th), although some of that is due to matchups. Clark hasn't scored in eight career games against the Packers, while Muhammad has been hit or miss -- he was shut out by cornerback Al Harris in the game at Chicago last year (with Kyle Orton at quarterback). ... The Bears have won four of five in the series since hiring Smith. They've scored a defensive or special teams TD in three straight against the Packers.

Cincinnati (vs. Pitt.):
The Bengals may be pretty much eliminated from playoff consideration, but don't look for them to treat this as an exhibition game. They still have a chance to finish the season strong, finish with a winning record, and beat a hated division rival. The Bengals have lost 23 of 32 games to Pittsburgh since 1991. They've also lost five straight at home in this series, including the playoff loss last year, in which Carson Palmer blew out his knee on the first play of the game. The Bengals won't pass on the opportunity to win this game. ... It's a good matchup for Cincinnati's passing game. The Bengals pass the ball well, while Pittsburgh has problems with its secondary. The Steelers rank 5th against the run but just 19th against the pass, allowing 225 yards per game, with 19 TDs. Palmer, meanwhile, has been one of the league's top quarterbacks. Palmer has averaged 261 passing yards in his last 14 games, with 26 TDs -- almost 2 per game. Back in week 3, Palmer didn't play particularly well (18 of 26 for 193, with 2 interceptions) but tossed 4 TDs to lift the Bengals to a 28-20 win. Palmer threw for 227 yards and 3 TDs to lift Cincinnati to a 38-31 win at Pittsburgh last year, then got hurt early in the playoff game against them. Palmer didn't play well when Pittsburgh won 27-13 at Cincinnati in the middle of last year, but that was a much better Steelers defense. We expect a good game out of Palmer. ... Chad Johnson is regarded as Cincinnati's best receiver, but in this game, it seems to make more sense to slot him behind T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Due to matchups or whatever, Houshmandzadeh has tended to be more productive against the Steelers. In the four meetings in the last 15 months, Houshmanzadeh has caught 25 passes and 5 TDs. Johnson has caught only 14 passes and no touchdowns in those games. Houshmandzadeh has also scored in four of his last five games, while Johnson hasn't scored in any of those games. Houshmandzadeh is the pick. ... Fantasy leaguers, especially those in TD-only formats, will also have to give consideration to Chris Henry. Henry isn't even a starter, but the Bengals use lots of three-receiver sets, and they like to use him in red zone situations. Henry has scored 8 TDs in his last 10 games. He caught 2 TDs in the earlier game against the Steelers. ... It's a below-average matchup for Rudi Johnson, but not by as much as you might think. Pittsburgh's defense is better against the run than pass and held Johnson to 47 yards on 19 attempts back in week 3. But he's historically played pretty well against them. In his five previous games against them the last two years, the Steelers held Johnson under 4.3 yards per carry only once -- when he managed only 62 yards on 16 attempts (3.9) two years ago. In those five games, Johnson averaged 81 rushing yards, with 4 TDs. In a game that might be surprisingly high-scoring and that the Bengals might win surprisingly easily, Johnson could come through with about 75 yards and a touchdown.

Cleveland (at Hou.):
The Browns scored 4 TDs against Kansas City and 2 TDs against Baltimore. Otherwise, their offense has scored 1 TD in its last 16 quarters of play. And now they're down to their third-string quarterback (Ken Dorsey). Ugh. The opponent may be seemingly harmless Houston, but we can't say with any confidence that Cleveland will score more than 10 points in this game. While the Texans may have only a 5-10 record, they're playing at home and have played a lot better than Cleveland in recent games. Look at Houston's per-game averages from the past 10 games: 21 points, 110 rushing yards and 202 passing yards. Project those over an entire season and the Texans would be top 8 against the run, top 12 against the pass and top 20 in scoring defense. They seem to be picking up the team's new defensive system. Contrast that to the Browns offense: Cleveland has gained more yards than only Oakland, and it's scored more points than only the two pirate teams -- Raiders and Bucs. ... Reuben Droughns is Cleveland's featured runner and went for a respectable 92 yards on 19 carries last week against Tampa Bay. But we see this as a situation for him that's average at best. Houston's defense has been above-average against the run recently. ... Kellen Winslow is limping to the finish line of the season. He averaged 62 yards in his first nine games, with 3 TDs. But Winslow now has gone eight games in a row without scoring, and he's had no more than 27 receiving yards in three of his last four. And now he's down to the team's third-string quarterback. Winslow has been playing all year with a knee soreness that will require surgery as soon as the season is over. Put him down for about 30 receiving yards. ... Cleveland's best fantasy prospect for this game is probably Braylon Edwards. He has some playmaking ability, and Houston's defense has been only average against the pass. Even with the team down to Dorsey at quarterback, Edwards has a reasonable chance of getting into the end zone. He had had scored in three straight games prior to Sunday, when he was benched for most of the first half for undisclosed reasons -- he probably showed up late for a practice or meeting or lipped off to a coach. Edwards should be back into his usual role for this game, though it isn't certain -- Romeo Crennel has refused to say whether or not Edwards will start. Edwards has caught 5 of the team's last 8 TD passes. Pretty impressive for a player who's just a year removed from reconstructive knee surgery and stuck on a team with a lesser offense. Edwards should make a nice impact in 2007 and beyond. ... Joe Jurevicius has played fairly well recently, averaging 73 receiving yards in his last four games. But despite his size and red-zone ability, Jurevicius has scored in only one of his last nine games.

Dallas (vs. Det.):
The game is likely of little value to the Cowboys. After losing to Philadelphia, they'll almost certainly be the NFC's No. 5 seed in the playoffs and play at Seattle next week. But Dallas is unlikely to rest any players. After performing extremely poorly in two of their last three games, the Cowboys need to get back on track and rebuild their confidence. And there's also the outside chance that they can still win the division. The Eagles likely will win their home game against Atlanta, but that's not a given, and that game won't begin until after the Cowboys are done. Dallas will want to be sure it beats Detroit, then sit back and hope it wins the division with an Atlanta upset. ... Julius Jones and Marion Barber should come up big this week. They run the ball pretty well, and Detroit's defense is one of the worst against the run. The Lions lost both of their defensive tackles a ways back, and they're awfully soft up fron without those guys. In its last nine games, the Lions have allowed an average of 153 rushing yards and a league-worst 16 rushing TDs. That's the type of production to expect from the Jones-Barber combo: about 150 rushing yards and maybe 2 rushing TDs. Over the last 10 weeks, Jones has outproduced Barber by an average of 56-45 rushing yards per game. When it comes to TDs, Barber gets the big edge. Both players have appeared in all 15 games, and Barber has outscored Jones 15-4. ... As weak as the Lions are against the run, this looks like only an average matchup for the Dallas passing game. Since Detroit's defensive line was decimated, teams have opted to simply beat them up with the run. In the team's last 10 games, the Lions have allowed an average of only 202 passing yards per game, and only 7 TD passes. During that span, only nine teams have allowed fewer passing yards, and only three have allowed fewer TD passes. That's how we expect this game to play out. We're putting down Tony Romo for a modest 215 passing yards, and there's a good chance he'll finish with only 1 TD pass. Not that Romo couldn't go for 250-plus yards and 3 TDs against this defense, but we expect the Cowboys to heavily feature the run. ... Terrell Owens never stays away from controversy for long. After catching only two balls against the Eagles, he complained that the coaches aren't designing the offense for him to get the ball enough. With as many headaches as Owens has caused, the guess here is that the Cowboys will get rid of him in the offseason. That move would come before Owen is due a $3 million bonus in March. With this in mind, those in keeper leagues might want to use a deep roster spot on Patrick Crayton, who's shown some ability. Maybe Crayton will be a starter next year. ... Terry Glenn is sitting at 938 receiving yards. He might be interested in getting 62 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark. No telling, however, whether this will actually result in the Cowboys making an effort to get him a few extra balls. Glenn has averaged 67 receiving yards per game this year anyway. ... Romo's play has tailed off in the last month. It's possible that opponents are starting to figure out better tactics to use against him. In each of his first five starts, Romo completed at least two thirds of his passes, with a 10-2 ratio of TDs to interceptions in those five games. But in his last four games, Romo has been held under 60 percent passing three times. He's completed under 50 percent in two of his last three. And he's only 4 TDs versus 7 interceptions in those games. For next year, Romo is far more likely to be merely a top-10 quarterback, rather than up there in the top 4. He could -- probably will -- be without Terrell Owens, which would cost him a playmaker. As mentioned previously, we see this as a matchup that's average at best for Romo. The Lions rank next-to-last in points allowed, but they've tended to get beat up on the ground. ... We'll label this a slightly better than average matchup for Jason Witten. The Lions have allowed 7 TD passes to tight ends, which is only one short of the most in the league.

Denver (vs. S.F.):
The Broncos should find out shortly before kickoff whether they need to win this game to clinch a playoff spot. A Kansas City loss against visiting Jacksonville, in a game that kicks off three hours earlier, guarantees Denver a postseason berth. Whether that would trigger Mike Shanahan to start pulling out players is unclear. Shanahan might want to win the game anyway to build momentum and hang onto the No. 5 seed (rather than dropping to No. 6). The No. 5 seed likely will result in a game at New England (a team the Broncos have had a lot of success against). But dropping to No. 6 would probably mean a matchup against Peyton Manning, who's given the Broncos fits. It's a tricky situation for fantasy owners, but our guess is that Denver's regular guys are going to play fairly standard roles. Kansas City will probaby win that earlier game anyway. ... Javon Walker, of course, gets an above-average matchup against a San Francisco defense ranked 28th against the pass. Only two teams have allowed more passing touchdowns (24). Walker, meanwhile, has caught long touchdowns (of 39 and 54 yards) in each of the past two weeks. He suffered a shoulder injury two weeks ago and briefly left the Bengals game with a wrist injury, but neither will keep him from playing this week. ... Jay Cutler is unlikley to be rested in this game, regardless of developments elsewhere. With just four career starts, Cutler might be better off getting additional experience than spending any more time on the sidelines. As with Walker, it's a great matchup; although improved from earlier in the year -- 14th over the past seven weeks -- San Francisco's secondary is still pretty bad against the pass. Six of those seven opponents have been up over 200 passing yards, and those teams have thrown 9 TDs in those games. Denver, then, figures to have plenty of success through the air here. Cutler has been pretty good lately anyway, shaking off a rough start -- an interception and 3 sacks on Denver's first four possessions Sunday -- to throw for 179 yards and 2 TDs. He should put up good numbers. ... Tatum Bell has lost fumbles (that were turned into touchdowns) and been benched for portions of each of the last two games. Mike Bell has replaced him and run well -- while scoring 3 TDs -- in those two games. Can we guarantee that Mike, not Tatum, will get most of the work on Sunday? No, but it's possible. It definitely seems that Mike Bell will score any short touchdowns, as Tatum got the first carry at the goal line (for no gain) against Cincinnati, and Mike handled each of the ensuing opportunities, including a 2-yard TD run. There's some risk involved in recommending any Broncos running back, of course. If Tatum breaks some big runs early, maybe he'll get more of the work from that point forward. Tatum Bell was a huge factor when the Broncos won 17-7 at New England back in week 3 and has a lot more raw ability than Mike Bell. The Broncos probably wouldn't mind at all if Tatum Bell got his confidence back this week with a big game. San Francisco is a respectable 19th against the run, but they've allowed a rushing touchdown in five straight games. It's doubtful they have the personnel to slow a Broncos running game that can be dominant at times, particularly at home. One more note on Tatum Bell: With injuries (initially) and fumbles (recently) preventing him from solidifying his grip on the starting job, it seems unlikely he'll be the team's featured back next year. He could be traded, with the Broncos bringing in one or two other backs to compete for the starting job. ... Tony Scheffler has scored 3 TDs and averaged 50 receiving yards the past three weeks. Cutler looked for him on a 20-yard route early against Cincinnati that was intercepted. He's getting enough looks to rate a start in leagues that require a tight end, particularly against a San Francisco defense that's tied with two other teams in allowing the most touchdowns to the position on the season (8). He's also a guy to consider if you're looking to add a tight end in a keeper league -- he and Cutler have had a good rapport since the preseason.

Detroit (at Dall.):
The Lions won't win this game, but they certainly have a chance to post above-average passing stats. They throw the ball pretty well -- or at least often. Detroit ranks 5th in passing at 260 yards per game, and Jon Kitna managed 283 yards and 3 TDs last week against a good Chicago defense. Kitna has thrown 17 TD passes; he has only two 3-TD games, but he's thrown at least one scoring pass in 11 of his last 13 games. Now he faces a defense that's really struggled against the pass recently. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 288 passing yards per game over the last month, with 12 TD passes in four games. The raw numbers, then, suggest that Kitna will an above-average quarterback this week -- definitely in the top 5 in yards, and probably 1-2 TD passes. The worry is that this game could come a week too late for Kitna. The Cowboys are aware they're struggling against the pass -- that's their No. 1 problem -- and they'd like to get that fixed before the playoffs. They were pretty good against the pass earlier in the year, when they allowed an average of only 205 passing yards in their first 11 games, with 9 TD passes. Considering the Lions run the ball so poorly that Dallas won't even have to honor that portion of their offense, Kitna could see plenty of pressure and plenty of extra defensive backs. We're putting him down for about 240 passing yards and consider him more likely to finish with 1 TD pass rather than two. ... Detroit's running backs have very little value. The team ranks last in rushing, and it's worse now than it was earlier in the season, when Kevin Jones was healthy. In the three games Jones has missed, Arlen Harris averages 26 yards rushing and 27 yards receiving, with no touchdowns. The Lions also have Aveion Cason; he's a former Cowboy, so perhaps he'll get a little more work than usual. ... Roy Williams is from Texas and played his college ball for the Longhorns, so perhaps he'll be more pumped up than usual for this game. While the Cowboys have been leaky against the pass, however, they've done a pretty good job against wide receivers -- both recently and all season. The Cowboys have one of only two defenses that's allowed more touchdown passes (11) to tight ends and running backs, than to wide receivers (10). So we view this as only an average matchup for Williams and Mike Furrey. Williams isn't playing nearly as well now as he did earlier in the season. He's averaged 70 yards in his last seven games, with 1 TD. In his previous seven games, he scored 4 TDs and averaged 28 more receiving yards per game. Maybe all of the losing has worn him down. ... We have some interest in Dan Campbell in this game. The Lions probably will make more of an effort to get him the ball in this game. They just lost their second tight end, Casey Fitzsimmons, and Campbell also played the last three years with the Cowboys. He's played fairly well recently, catching TDs in three of his last six games. ... Mike Williams doesn't seem to have it. He's been on the bench for most of the year because of weight problems, and now that he's starting to see some playing time, he's doing nothing but disappointing. He dropped 4 passes against the Bears, including a touchdown.

Green Bay (at Chi.):
The Packers offense scored just 2 total touchdowns at home against the Lions and Vikings the last two weeks. Even against a Bears defense that may rest some starters, what reason is there to think it will be much better here? Not much, beyond the fact that while the Bears have nothing at stake, the Packers may be playing for a playoff spot. They'll know by kickoff if a win gets them into the playoffs; even without that, they may want to finish at 8-8 and knock off a Bears team that blew them out 26-0 back in week 1. Still, the way this offense has functioned even against lesser defenses in recent weeks, it's hard seeing any kind of dramatic scoring output from the Packers here. The game will be played at 7:15 p.m. CST time on New Year's Eve, so weather could be a factor in keeping numbers down, as well. This one figures to be either a low-scoring defensive struggle or a lopsided Bears win -- depending on whether the Packers are able to take better care of the football than they have in recent meetings. ... Brett Favre used to dominate this series. Until last season, he'd averaged roughly 2 TDs per game against the Bears over a 13-year stretch, during which the Packers went 21-5. Things have changed, and now Favre hasn't put up a single touchdown in the last three meetings. In those games he's turned it over 12 times, and he comes into this game with 5 interceptions the last two weeks. It's not entirely his fault -- his receivers have either dropped or fumbled away multiple touchdown opportunities the last two weeks -- but it's tough to make a case for him getting back on track here. One thing we can say for Favre is that the Bears, either due to injuries in the secondary or a lack of focus while playing virtually meaningless games, have slipped defensively. They've allowed 3 TD passes in each of the last three weeks, including to players named Tim Rattay and Jon Kitna. The defense that dominated the Packers back in week 1 is just 10th against the run and 24th against the pass over the second half of the season. So maybe Favre will turn back the clock in this prime-time showcase in what could be his last game. That, however, is not the scenario we're comfortable forecasting. In the earlier meeting, Green Bay ran the ball on 10 of its first 13 offensive plays. Favre threw for 179 yards, but most of that production -- and both of his turnovers -- came with the Packers trailing by three scores. The Packers will likely try to limit the Bears' opportunities for big plays on defense by keeping the ball on the ground, mixing in short passes to Donald Driver and the running backs. Look for another quiet day from Favre; maybe he'll be up in the range of 175-200 passing yards and 1-2 TDs. ... We like Ahman Green in this one. The Packers have had some success on the ground in this series recently, with Green rushing for 110 yards in the first game and Samkon Gado rushing for 75 yards and a touchdown at Chicago last year. Chicago's defense has been more vulnerable to the pass of late, but conditions (and Green Bay's recent tendencies toward interceptions and dropped passes) could work against that kind of game plan. Chicago's opponents the last two weeks, Tampa Bay and Detroit, both have bottom-5 rushing offenses. Prior to that they gave up nearly 300 rushing yards to the Vikings and Rams. The Packers should have some success there, with Green getting about two thirds of the work and maybe rushing for about 70 yards. ... Driver is the only one of Favre's receivers you can start here. Even with the passing game struggling in the recent meetings, he's averaged 7 receptions for 89 yards in those games. He's been on a tear lately, too: 25 receptions for 329 yards in the last three weeks. He appears to be the only receiver Favre trusts right now; Greg Jennings and Favre haven't been on the same page since Jennings returned from an ankle injury, and the rookie was at fault on one of Favre's interceptions last week (and the intended target on both). ... Bubba Franks had his biggest game in nearly two seasons last week -- unfortunately, it was a performance that will probably only reduce his role with the team in the future. Although he caught 5 passes, he dropped 3 others, fumbled twice (once at the goal line) and committed a holding penalty in the final minutes that could have cost the Packers the game. Green Bay doesn't have much else at the position -- David Martin is a better receiver but has never been able to stay healthy -- so they'll probably look to address it in the offseason. ... Vernand Morency is worth a roster spot in keeper formats. Green is a free agent after the season, and while the Packers would like him to return, he'll be 30 in February and has a history of injuries. Morency has looked pretty good in limited action. He's the only Packer to score a touchdown the last two weeks. With the Packers having a host of other needs, there's a good chance they'll enter 2007 with Green and Morency as their top 2 backs.

Houston (vs. Clev.):
The Texans are 4-point favorites, and that isn't enough. They may be only 5-10 (compared to Cleveland's 4-11), but at least they've made progress this year. They've gotten better as the year has wore on. They're 5-7 in their last 12, with wins over Jacksonville (twice) and Indianapolis. And in three of those seven losses, they were in the game right at the end. Contrast that to the Browns, whose last four losses have all come by 10-plus points. Cleveland is also on the road and down to its third-string quarterback. Houston should not only win this game, but might do so easily. Injuries and a decline in morale has really taken the wind out of Cleveland's defense; over the last seven weeks, the Browns have allowed an NFL-high 392 yards per game and given up more points than all but two teams. ... Don't underestimate Ron Dayne. He's playing the best ball of his career right now, and this is an awfully putrid defense he'll face. The Browns rank 30th against the run, and they're playing their worst ball of the season right now. They've given up at least 140 rushing yards and 1 TD run in three straight weeks, including letting Willie Parker run for a team-record 223 yards three weeks ago -- Parker routinely didn't get touched in that game until he was 5-plus yards downfield. Dayne, meanwhile, has run for 87-plus yards four weeks in a row, with 5 TDs. Dayne ran for 153 yards and 2 TDs last week against Indianapolis' league-worst run defense. This defense is almost as bad. Pencil in Dayne for another good day. ... For Houston's passing game, we'll call it just an average matchup. Our fear is that the Texans will be so successful with that the run that they might not pass that often. That's kind of how it went down last week, when the team beat Indianapolis 27-24 but David Carr finished with mild numbers -- 163 passing yards and 1 TD. But this is definitely a lesser pass defense. Over the last seven weeks, Cleveland ranks 27th in pass defense, giving up 249 yards per game. About 200 passing yards and 1 TD is our estimate for Carr -- in what could be his final game with this franchise (the Texans will have to mull in the offseason whether to go with Carr for another year -- probably not). Carr has averaged 165 passing yards in his last 11 games, with only 4 TDs. ... Andre Johnson leads the league with 101 receptions. Sometimes receivers in this area will be unusually productive in the final week of the season -- teams will help them reach 100 catches or finish first in receptions or whatever. But that shouldn't be the case with Johnson. He's already reached the 100-catch plateau, and he's got an 11-catch league over every receiver in the league. Johnson definitely will lead the league in catches this year; the Texans will have no need to go to him any more than usual in this game. We're calling this an average matchup for this talented receiver. Johnson is averaging 76 yards per game, and he's caught 5 of the team's 14 TD passes. Against a decimated Cleveland secondary, Johnson has probably about a 40 percent probability of scoring in this game. ... Eric Moulds has averaged only 29 receiving yards in his last 11 games, with no touchdowns. He has essentially no fantasy value, even against a weak secondary like Cleveland's. ... Tight end Owen Daniels' only value is as a keeper league possibility. Maybe he'll finish with 45 catches and 5 TDs next year. But Daniels shouldn't do much in this game. He's averaged only 16 receiving yards in his last five games, and he's battling a shoulder injury that kept him out of the Colts game. Daniels' last touchdown came back in week 8. Daniels is questionable on the injury report and didn't practice Wednesday.

Indianapolis (vs. Mia.):
A month ago people were wondering if the Colts would be resting their starters in this one. Three losses in four games have the team needing a win combined with a Ravens loss to secure one of the AFC's two first-round byes. The chances of that happening are slim -- the Ravens are 9-point favorites at home against the Bills -- but since both games will be played at 4:15 p.m. EST on Sunday, Indianapolis won't have the luxury of going through the motions in this one. Plus the Colts need to win to avoid losing the No. 3 seed to New England (and entering the playoffs by losing four out of five games). They'd probably like to try and straighten out some of the problems that have plagued them this season: an inability to stop the run, and an offense that has underperformed at times. Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Joseph Addai -- all should play for as long as the outcome is in doubt this week. ... Manning and the passing game could post big numbers here. The Dolphins have played the pass very well (4th), but they've slipped of late. During the second half of the season, they're just 14th. Aside from a shutout over the Patriots, they've allowed 7 TD passes in their last four games. And this week they'll likely be without two starters in the secondary, Renaldo Hill (questionable) and Andre Goodman (out), as well as two of their top backups. Few quarterbacks are as effective as Manning at identifying vulnerabilities in an opposing defense, so look for him to exploit those matchups here. Chad Pennington threw for 237 yards in the rain on Monday against this defense, which can probably be considered Manning's floor rather this his ceiling this week. ... This is a tough matchup for Addai. Miami is ranked 6th against the run and has allowed just 1 rushing TD in its last five games. Maybe the Dolphins will be a little softer against the run this week, dropping more players into pass coverage and whatnot, but it's definitely a below-average situation for the running game. The best we can say for Addai is he's healthy after spraining his ankle two weeks ago; he ran for 100 yards on just 15 carries against the Texans. Dominic Rhodes barely played in that game after losing an early fumble. Addai has been the far better back anyway, averaging 5.0 yards per carry (compared to 3.4 for Rhodes). He'll be the clear No. 1 here in 2007. ... Manning has been leaning on Marvin Harrison of late, with the team's tight ends and other receivers (aside from Reggie Wayne) banged-up. The aforementioned injuries in Miami's secondary make this another good matchup for Harrison, who's 10 receptions shy of a 100-catch season. If he catches a few balls early, maybe the Colts will try to get him that milestone -- although it probably won't be a major consideration. Wayne, also, should be heavily involved. The pair have combined to catch 91 percent (170 of 187) of the receptions by Indianapolis wide receivers on the season. ... The Dolphins have allowed nearly as many touchdown to tight ends (3) as wide receivers (4) in their past five games, but there's probably only a 1-in-3 chance of coming up with the Colts' most productive player at the position this week. Bryan Fletcher and Ben Utecht each caught 2 passes against the Texans; Utecht's biggest game in the past six weeks (4 for 35) came with Fletcher and Dallas Clark both sidelined against the Bengals. Now Clark is expected to return ("It would be a best-case scenario to get him some work before the playoffs," Tony Dungy said), although he may play only sparingly against the Dolphins.

Jacksonville (at K.C.):
It's hard to get excited about the Jaguars this week. They've pretty much been eliminated from playoff contention (they need either the Jets and Broncos to lose, and that's not going to happen), and they've been a different team on the road this year anyway, losing to such teams as Houston, Washington, Buffalo and Tennessee. Jacksonville is 5-3 at home this year, but just 2-5 on the road, where its averaged only 17 points and scored only 14 TDs in seven games. In eight home games, the Jaguars have averaged 26.5 points and scored 21 TDs, putting up an additional 26 yards rushing and 41 yards passing. Here Jacksonville will face a Kansas City defense that's above average; it's 18th against the run and 13th against the pass, but only eight teams have allowed fewer points. ... Maurice Jones-Drew should be the focus of the game plan. He's had the hot hand recently, putting up at least 145 combined yards in three straight games and scoring touchdowns seven games in a row. Jones-Drew has some Barry Sanders in him -- he's had runs of 24-plus yards in four of his last five games. And he should get an expanded workload again this week with Fred Taylor battling a sore hamstring. Taylor is probable on the injury report, so it looks like he'll play (he practiced Wednesday), but Taylor sat out last week, left the previous two games early, and has been slow to return from injuries in the past. Jones-Drew needs 105 rushing yards to reach 1,000 for the season, and that may be something that interests him and his offensive line (Jacksonville could become the first team since Cleveland in 1985 to put two running backs over 1,000 yards in the same season). But this is a below-average matchup for the rookie runner. Kansas City has had a couple of mega-meltdowns against the run, most notably when it gave up 219-plus rushing yards at Pittsburgh and San Diego, but otherwise it's been very solid. Kansas City has allowed an average of only 102 rushing yards in its other 13 games, and it's given up only 88 rushing yards on average at home. So they at least have the potential to slow down Jones-Drew. The Patriots did a pretty good job against him last week. He managed to get up off the ground and scamper for a 74-yard touchdown against them, but otherwise they held him down at 3 yards per carry -- 18 attempts for 57 yards. ... Jacksonville's passing attack is of very little value at this point. David Garrard isn't much of a passer, and the team is going with a painfully conservative scheme. Garrard has averaged only 177 passing yards in his nine starts, with 9 TDs. He's also averaged 26 rushing yards in those games. ... Matt Jones looks like Jacksonville's best option at wide receiver right now. He's scored in four of his last five games. In contrast, neither Reggie Williams nor Ernest Wilford has scored in any of the team's last seven games. That's not to say, however, that there's a huge difference between these receivers. Chance has played a role in Jones finishing with that scoring edge -- Williams and Wilford have had a few opportunities to close that gap. And this trio is continuing to share time. Over the last seven weeks, Jones has averaged 41 receiving yards, compared to 32 for Wilford and 29 for Williams -- there's not a big difference between these guys. Jones is probable with a hamstring injury; that may reduce his playing time. ... Kansas City's defense has allowed almost as many touchdowns to tight ends (7) as wide receivers (9). But Jacksonville is using a bunch of different players at that position -- Kyle Brady, George Wrighster and Marcedes Lewis. We're can wholeheartedly endorse any of those guys.

Kansas City (vs. Jac.):
This is a below-average matchup for Larry Johnson. Jacksonville ranks No. 3 against the run. But with Johnson, he's good enough that he'll outproduce the vast majority of running backs even when in a tough situation. Johnson has faced top-8 run defenses (Baltimore, San Diego) in two of his last three games, and he ran for 120 and 84 yards in those games. And earlier this year, Johnson ran for 125-plus yards in three games against the Chargers and Broncos (who rank 8th and 11th against the run). He could do just fine in this game, putting up something like 100 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City is at home in this game, and it's a fairly meaningless game for both teams, since the Broncos and Jets have pretty much sewn up the AFC's two wild-card spots (there's little chance that those two teams will lose to the 49ers and Raiders, giving another team a chance to get into the playoffs). One additional note, however, about Jacksonville. The Jaguars haven't been nearly as good on the road this year, where they're only 2-5, but most of that has been on the offense. Jacksonville's defense on the road has allowed an average of only 87 rushing yards, with 5 TD runs in seven games -- that's just as good as the team has played at home. But few fantasy teams have the luxury of having two running backs who project to be better than Johnson, even when he's in a potentially tough matchup. For those in keeper leagues, the one real worry with Johnson is his durability. He handles the ball a lot, and he takes a lot of punishment. He handles the ball a lot, and he takes a lot more hard hits than most backs -- Johnson tries to run over and punish a lot of tacklers. That could shorten his career, particularly considering his workload and the decline of Kansas City's offensive line. For this year, Johnson is sitting at 383 rushing attempts. He needs 17 carries to become the fourth running back with 400 in a season and 27 carries to tie Jamal Anderson's NFL record. Johnson also has caught 36 passes this year; that's a lot to ask of one player. That said, the only back we'd definitely select before Johnson in a dynasty-league draft today would be LaDainian Tomlinson. ... We don't have much interest in Kansas City's passing game this week. This is a team that's far more interested in running the ball (Kansas City ranks 8th in rushing and only 23rd in passing), and Jacksonville ranks 7th in passing defense. The Jaguars have allowed only 203 passing yards per game, and they've given up only 11 TD passes, 2nd-fewest in the league. In their last seven games, the Jaguars have given up only 3 TD passes -- 2 fewer than any other team. So hard to get too excited about Trent Green, who's thrown touchdown passes in only three of his last six games. Since returning to the starting lineup, Green has thrown for more than 185 yards in only one of six games. Herman Edwards, however, says Green definitely will be the team's starting quarterback next season. ... Kansas City's receiving corps should be drastically different next year. Tony Gonzalez needs a new contract, and he could be tough to sign. With the salary cap taking a big step up, teams will have plenty of money to spend, and there won't be a lot of big-name players available. That's probably while Gonzalez has declined to sign an extension. Even though he'll be 31 in February, he could get a monster deal. And Kansas City might not want to commit that much money to that position. Gonzalez, by the way, needs one touchdown to tie the all-time record for the position (held by Shannon Sharpe). This could be his last game as a Kansas City player to do it. Gonzalez also needs 121 yards to reach 1,000 for the season; he'd probably like to reach that mark, but it seems to be a little out of his range. The team also could look to replace Eddie Kennison in the offseason -- it almost certainly will. Kennison will be 34 in the offseason, and his play declined this year. He's caught only 1 pass in three of his last five games, and he's scored only 4 TDs all year. Kansas City's other starting receiver is also a year-to-year guy: Samie Parker is nothing more than a below-average No. 2 -- a speed guy who can occasionally contribute a big play.

Miami (at Ind.):
If week 17 is meaningful in your league, there are only a handful of running backs you'll want to start ahead of Ronnie Brown. Fully recovered from a broken hand, Brown ran better than he had all season while pounding away at the Jets' sorry run defense Monday night (18 carries for 110 yards), breaking tackles and looking like the freshest player on the field (having missed the previous three games). That Jets group, at least, has been respectable against the run (17th) in the second half of the season. Not so with the Colts, who are saddled with the league's worst run defense by any measurement: yards per game (175), yards per carry (5.3), touchdowns (20). Ron Dayne, of all people, rushed for 153 yards and 2 TDs against this defense last week. In a frustrating season during which the Dolphins have been arguably the league's most disappointing team, look for them to take out some of that frustration by giving Brown and Sammie Morris upward of 40 carries and trying to run their way to an upset win. The Texans ran the ball on 65 percent of their plays against the Colts last week. Brown has been somewhat of a disappointment this season, but he can finish on a high note with a big game here. He's also only 107 yards away from his first 1,000-yard season, a milestone he'd no doubt like to reach. ... Over the last seven weeks the Colts have been ranked last against the run and first against the pass. That's only part of the reason why we want nothing to do with the Dolphins' passing game in this one. Not only do opponents not bother throwing against this defense -- no team has faced fewer pass attempts than Indianapolis -- but with the Dolphins this week you might only have a 50-50 shot at starting the quarterback who makes most of those limited throws anyway. Cleo Lemon will get the start -- Nick Saban benched Joey Harrington for Lemon at halftime of the game against the Jets -- but it's less clear whether he'll play the entire game. "It's a little bit different being the starting pitcher than being the reliever," Saban said. "Give him an opportunity to start. We can play both quarterbacks in this game." Neither quarterback would be an attractive play in what's certain to be a run-dominated game plan, and they're even less appealing given the threat of a committee situation. Lemon looked better than Harrington in leading the Dolphins on a pair of fourth-quarter scoring drives, but he's a free agent after the season and no lock to return with both Daunte Culpepper and Harrington under contract. Lemon figures to be little more than the middle man between the center and Brown this week anyway. ... Chris Chambers has caught just 1 pass the last two weeks. We're at as much of a loss to explain it as everyone else. On the occasions Chambers does get open and the throws are there -- like on an early 40-yard route down the sideline against the Jets -- he's frequently let them bounce off his hands. There'd be little reason to recommend Chambers even if the Dolphins were expected to throw much in this one, and even less with them figuring to have an easy go of it on the ground. Not that his absence has helped Chambers, but Marty Booker (ankle, questionable) could return to the lineup after missing the Jets game, although he didn't practice Wednesday. ... Randy McMichael has some value here, particularly with Lemon as the starter. He was shut out in the first half but caught 5 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown after Lemon came in against the Jets. McMichael could be a serviceable player at his position this week, although again, Miami shouldn't be passing very often. ... Rookie wideout Derek Hagan caught 3 passes for 35 yards after Lemon came into the game last week. The team used a third-round pick on him in last April's draft, and the 30-year-old Booker has showed signs of breaking down. Even Chambers can't be considered a shoo-in to be this team's go-to receiver in the future. Miami would prefer to leave smallish (5-9) Wes Welker in the third receiver role, so Hagan could challenge for a starting job with a strong preseason in 2007.

Minnesota (vs. St.L.):
Chester Taylor has slipped out of the limelight recently. He got hurt in the game against the Bears, didn't play against the Lions and then -- playing with bruised ribs -- was held to 87 yards on 26 carries in his two games against the Jets and Packers. But Taylor could rebound in a big way in this game. He's getting healthier now, and he'll face a St. Louis defense that's one of the worst in the league. The Rams have allowed 159 rushing yards per game and 19 rushing touchdowns. Only the Colts have been worse in those categories. And the Rams are giving up 4.9 yards per rushing attempt. In its last nine games, St. Louis has held only one team (the lowly Raiders) under 135 rushing yards. So despite Taylor's recent struggles, look for him to punch out something like 110 yards and a touchdown in this game. ... Tarvaris Jackson looked very good in a half against the Jets. He looked awful against the Packers, completing only 10 of 20 passes for 50 yards. With as much success as the Vikings should have in this game with their running game, Jackson should play a modest role this week, passing for maybe 150 yards. The Rams rank next-to-last in run defense but are No. 6 against the pass -- in part because everyone runs the ball on them. St. Louis has allowed 20 TD passes, which is one worse than the league average. We're tabbing this as a slightly below-average matchup for Jackson, which given his limited development at this point should make him a bottom-10 quarterback this week. ... Who'll start at wide receiver for Minnesota next year? Maybe a couple of a players not currently on the roster. Travis Taylor looks better suited to be a No. 3 receiver, playing in the slot on third downs. Troy Williamson has elite speed, but he had more problems with drops this year than any receiver in the league in recent years -- basic drops, as well as not being able to adjust to long throws. At this point, it would be extremely risky for the Vikings to count on Williamson being able to be a functional starting receiver in 2007 -- he might not ever develop. The Vikings also have Billy McMullen and Bethel Johnson, but neither of those guys has shown enough that they can be counted on to be starters in 2007. They may see additional playing time in this game because Williamson (hamstring) is questionable. The team just released veteran Marcus Robinson; Robinson says he hopes to catch on with a team headed for the playoffs.

New England (at Tenn.):
This game is pretty much meaningless to the Patriots. Unless Indianapolis losses to Miami, they will be the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs. Barring wildly unforeseen developments, New England is going to play Denver next week in Foxborough (an interesting matchup, considering the Broncos are 5-1 against New England since 2001, including a win there earlier this year). And given that the Patriots might be playing a week from Saturday against a near-certain opponent, chances are they've already begun preparing for that opponent. They probably will hold a host of players out of this game. When New England entered week 17 last year know they'd be playing in the first-round of the postseason, they treated the game as little more than exhibition. Tom Brady attempted 8 passes before leaving. Corey Dillon didn't dress. And the team even let Doug Flutie end his career by converting the first drop kick since 1941. That's what's probably in store for this game. Don't start any Patriots and count on getting more than two quarters worth of playing. Brady and Dillon seem like candidates to sit out entirely. Brady has started 93 straight games, so they'll probably trot him out for the first series or so. Benjamin Watson (knee) and Laurence Maroney (ribs) are banged up; they'll probably sit out as well. With the Titans are a pretty good team (they've won six straight) and have a lot more motivation -- they'd like to finish the season on a high note by winning their seventh straight and getting to .500. With that in mind, it's a surprise that Tennessee isn't favored by a lot more than 3 points. The Titans should win this game, and as lightly as the Patriots probably will take it, it should be a one-sided game. Fantasy-wise, we can't make a case for putting any New England player in the top 25 at his position. Maybe youngster Dave Thomas at tight end. He's a pretty good pass catcher, and he should play the whole game.

New Orleans (vs. Car.):
This game is meaningless for the Saints, who clinched the NFC's No. 2 seed when Dallas lost to Philadelphia on Monday. That makes Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Deuce McAllister and probably Marques Colston candidates to see limited playing time -- if they play at all. Joe Horn (groin, doubtful) almost certainly won't play. "You can make an argument that it's no different from the fourth preseason game," Sean Payton said Tuesday, in about as clear a statement as any coach ever makes regarding his thought process for an upcoming game. Taking that quote literally, you might expect to see the Saints' starters for about a series or two. That seems to be how the oddsmakers see it. New Orleans is a 3-point underdog at home. ... Jamie Martin should get most of the work at quarterback, but he's not a player to strongly consider this week. The Panthers have played very well defensively of late -- they're No. 3 against the pass and No. 7 against the run over the past seven weeks. The Saints would like nothing more than to get this game behind them and get on with their postseason planning, so they probably won't ask Martin (or Brees, if he plays) to do very much beyond handing the ball off to one of the team's backup running backs and taking another 40 seconds off the clock. Brees threw for 349 yards and a TD in the week 4 meeting, so maybe the Saints will manage some decent production if they go that route. They may be forced to pass more than they'd like, if they're hoping to rest both McAllister and Bush. Aaron Stecker has been hampered by a hamstring injury. Officially questionable, he missed practice Wednesday. The Saints may sign someone off their practice squad to handle the rushing duties. In short, there's not much to get excited about from a fantasy standpoint here. The uncertainty over how much the starters will play and how aggressively the Saints will try to do anything beyond making sure everyone stays healthy makes it a bad situation to invest in -- and a shining example of why fantasy championships shouldn't be decided in week 17. ... With Horn almost certain not to play and Colston perhaps only sparingly, one of New Orleans' backup receivers could put up good numbers. That player might be Terrance Copper, who started and caught 2 passes for 46 yards against the Giants, but he's questionable with a foot injury suffered in that game and missed at least a portion of practice Wednesday. The Saints don't need to take chances with even minor injuries, so Copper could sit. If he misses the game, Devery Henderson will probably lead the team in receiving this week. He averaged 146 receiving yards, with 3 TDs, in three November games that either Horn or Colston sat out. He fell behind Copper after that and had a quiet December, so we're not comfortable predicting huge numbers, but at least he should be close to a full-time player this week. Henderson, however, has dropped touchdowns in back-to-back weeks. ... Bush hasn't been the immediate star he was anticipated to be, but the past month has been very encouraging for his owners in keeper formats. Against the Giants he had by far the top rushing performance of his career (20 carries for 126 yards and a TD); many of his yards came on conventional running plays up the middle against a Giants defense that had played the run fairly well this season. He also had his second return touchdown of the season, although it was reversed by instant replay. With McAllister putting up a 1,000-yard season rushing the ball, Bush might still be a year or two away from being a full-time player in New Orleans. His recent production, at least, shows he might be capable of becoming such a player in the future. ... Mark Campbell is questionable with a knee injury; he probably won't play, and wouldn't have a significant impact on the game if he did. Billy Miller would replace him.

N.Y. Giants (at Wash.):
The Giants have lost six of their last seven and turned in an absolutely pitiful performance on Sunday against the Saints. At home against an average defense in almost a must-win game, the Giants managed only 142 total yards of offense in a 30-7 loss to the Saints. New York didn't run a play inside New Orleans territory in that game. That's the kind of play that causes coaches to get fired and players to get released -- obviously, this team has problems. Nevertheless, we have some interest in the key Giants this week -- Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, Tiki Barber and Brandon Jacobs. Washington's defense is that bad -- only two teams have allowed more yards and only seven teams have allowed more points. The Giants still have plenty to play for -- with a win, they'll be in the playoffs. And Tom Coughlin on Tuesday stripped offensive coordinator of John Hufnagel; perhaps that will spark the team. ... As poorly as Washington has played against the pass, nobody can write off the likes of Manning, Burress and Shockey. Washington has given up a league-high 29 TD passes, four more than any other team; in only 3 of its last 14 games has this defense failed to give up at least 2 TD passes. Marc Bulger scorched it for 388 yards and 4 TDs on Sunday. Washington's secondary has been riddled by injuries all year, and it doesn't have any pass rush (it's 5 sacks behind every team in the league). So while Manning's confidence has looked shaken at times, he should rebound nicely in this game. Manning completed only 9 of 25 passes for 74 yards against New Orleans. Manning has been off his game often during the second half of the season, but in two of his previous three games, he completed 67-plus percent of his passes and finished with 270-plus yards. And this toothless opponent, it will be a surprise if he doesn't deliver at least 240 yards and 2 TDs. When New York beat Washington 19-3 back in week 5, Manning completed 23 of 33 for 256 yards, with 1 TD and no interceptions. He threw 1 TD and 1 interception in each of the games against Washington last year (when these teams split), but its defense was one of the best at that time. The was Washington's secondary has been hemorraging touchdowns, Burress and Shockey grade out about as high as anyone at their positions. Washington's defense has allowed a touchdown pass to a wide receiver in all but two of its games, while Burress is essentially the only wide receiver on the New York roster who catches them. And Washington has given up 7 TD passes to tight ends, including at least one in four of the last six weeks. Burress had a good game in the earlier meeting between these teams, catching 7 passes and a touchdown. Shockey caught only 1 pass in that game, but he should be much more involved in this game -- if he plays. Shockey is questionable with an ankle injury and didn't practice Wednesday; his status will have to be confirmed later in the week. ... We see this as only an average matchup for Barber -- in what could be his final game for the team (he says he'll retire). Washington ranks only 22nd against the run, but its so much worst against the pass that the Giants might pass more than usual. Also, Washington has allowed a wildly skewed ratio of 29-6 TDs passing versus rushing. Barber has, however, traditionally played well against Washington. He ran for 123 yards on 23 carries against this defense back in week 5. And Barber ran for 206 and 80 yards, with 1 TD, in the two games against Washington last year, averaging over 5 yards per carry in both games. ... Sinorice Moss rotated in for a few plays against the Saints. If he can stay healthy and get a better grasp of the offense, Moss probably will be a starter for the team next year. If not, he'll be a No. 3 receiver who can perhaps contribute a few big plays. Here, he may get a spark out of playing against his brother (Santana Moss) for the first time. Sinorice Moss was hurt when these teams played back in week 5.

N.Y. Jets (vs. Oak.):
Cedric Houston didn't even play against Miami because of a calf injury, but he'll probably be the focal point of the game plan this week. Houston is the team's best running back, and the Raiders are a lot worse against the run than pass. Oakland ranks No. 1 in pass defense but it's allowed more rushing yards (135 per game) than all but five teams. Oakland also has allowed 10 rushing TDs in its last six games. New York uses a committee approach with its running backs, but Houston could post pretty good numbers. Leon Washington has some big-play ability, but with his limited size, he's best suited to be a spot-duty player. And Kevan Barlow probably won't even be active unless Houston's health is in question. In New York's last six games, Barlow has been inactive three times; in the other three games, he's carried 30 times for a total of only 43 yards. He's averaging 2.8 yards per attempt on the season. Houston also hasn't posted great numbers this year; he's at 3.4 yards per carry. But he's sprinkled in more solid performances. Houston ran for 50 yards on 11 carries against Chicago, and he had 105 yards on 22 attempts at Green Bay. Houston should be their primary runner in this game, getting maybe two thirds of the work, and that might translate into him running for about 80 yards and a touchdown. Washington should get about 10 touches as a runner and receiver; he played a big role in the win against Miami with a 64-yard gain on a late screen pass, and Washington has gone over 25 receiving yards in three of his last four games. We would have Houston ranked higher if it was certain he would be the team's featured runner. Both Houston (calf) and Barlow (thigh) are questionable on the team's injury report and missed some of Wednesday's practice. Eric Mangini has been secretive with injuries and lineup decisions all year, so it might not be clear until the game begins how he's going to utilize his backs. ... This looks like a below-average matchup for New York's passing attack. The weather could make passing the ball difficult, and Oakland's defense ranks No. 1 against the pass. That's something the Raiders are very proud of and aware of; to the point where you wonder if it affects their play. This defense (particularly the secondary) definitely is interested in finishing No. 1 against the pass, so it's possible some players aren't being as aggressive as they should be in run support -- nobody wants to be the guy who bites on a play-action fake and gives up the 70-yard touchdown pass that drops the team from No. 1 to No. 2 against the pass. Regardless, they're good against the pass and should hold Chad Pennington under 180 yards. The Raiders have also giving up only 16 TD passes, which is 3 better than the league average. Pennington has had a solid season, but he's thrown more than 1 TD in only one of his last nine games. ... Laveranues Coles caught only 2 passes for 9 yards at Miami, but Coles missed about half of that game after getting clocked by Zach Thomas early. Previously, Coles had scored in three of his past four games. But this is a tough secondary he'll face. Coles is questionable on the injury report but is expected to play; he's been questionable on the injury report almost every game this season but hasn't missed a start. ... Jerricho Cotchery needs 92 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. He'd probably love to reach that mark, but it's unlikely to happen -- this is too good of a secondary.

Oakland (at NYJ):
In the vast majority of fantasy leagues, there's only one Raiders player of any value right now: Ronald Curry. He's playing hard and looks like a guy who's intent on proving he deserves to be a big part of the team's plans for next season. Curry has caught 8, 9 and 11 passes in his last three games. That's made him very valuable in a lot of fantasy scoring system, particularly those including substantial credit for yards and receptions. With Alvis Whitted and Jerry Porter definitely out and Randy Moss (ankle) almost certain to sit as well, Curry should again be the main hub of the team's passing attack. He should account for 40-plus percent of the team's catches and yards, and he probably has better than a 60 percent chance of catching whatever touchdown passes the team manages. Curry is definitely a fill-in option for teams in need at wide receiver this week. And with Porter and Moss probably gone in the offseason, Curry also has a good shot to be a starter next season. Johnnie Morant will be the other starter in this game, but Morant caught only 2 passes for 33 yards against Kansas City. ... Aaron Brooks (neck) didn't play against Kansas City, but Art Shell says that Brooks will start this game if physically able. Brooks is questionable on the injury report but should play -- he practiced Wednesday. A return to Brooks should help Curry, because Brooks is better than Andrew Walter. Walter has averaged only 168 passing yards in his eight starts, with only 3 TD passes. Prior to getting hurt against the Rams, Brooks averaged 201 passing yards in his previous four starts, with 3 TDs. ... New York's defense is soft against the run. Only seven teams have allowed more rushing yards, and Ronnie Brown went for 110 yards on 18 carries against this defense on Monday night. But the Raiders don't have a running back who can be counted on to put up good numbers. Former Jet LaMont Jordan won't play. And Justin Fargas has averaged only 50 rushing yards in his five games as a starter, with no touchdowns. The Raiders likely will obtain a new starting tailback in the offseason -- more of a big-time talent than Jordan. If the Raiders decide against bringing in a huge upgrade at the position, they could sign a middle-range free agent or use a second- or third-round pick on the position -- somebody who could come in and share time with Jordan. Fargas is not good enough to be a No. 2 tailback. ... Oakland's offense has scored a league-low 12 TDs -- 7 fewer than every other team. The Raiders are also averaging a league-low 243 yards per game -- they're 29th in both rushing and passing. ... In one of our newsletters a few weeks back, we speculated that the Lions would probably finish with the No. 1 overall pick. Most likely that will be the case. But it's still not set in stone yet. Assuming both the Raiders and Lions lose on Sunday, the No. 1 pick will go to the team that played the weaker schedule. It's a different tiebreaker scheme than what the league uses to determine playoff teams. As of right now, Oakland's 16 opponents have a combined win-loss record of 140-115, compared to 136-119 for the Lions. Based on how a bunch of other games go, the Lions could still close that gap and lose the No. 1 pick. The odds-on probability, however, is that Detroit will own the rights to that pick come Sunday night. Right now, that doesn't look like a big deal; there doesn't appear to be a sure-fire can't-miss guy who's going to single-handedly turn around either of those teams.

Philadelphia (vs. Atl.):
The Eagles have won four in a row. Hard to believe they'll stub their toe now, with the NFC East title hanging in front of them. More likely, they'll win this game easily. Atlanta probably will be eliminated from playoff contention before this game even starts, and the Falcons have been falling apart at the seams anyway, with players, coaches and owners griping and the team having lost six of its last eight. When the Falcons played in week 17 last year in a meaningless game, they got hammered 44-11 by Carolina, giving up 165 rushing yards to DeShaun Foster. This could be that kind of game, with the Eagles winning something like 31-7. If Philadelphia wins this game, it will host a first-round playoff game; it it loses, it will be looking at a road trip to Seattle. ... Atlanta's defense has been fairly respectable during its current slide. In the last half season, it's given up per-game averages of 21 points, 119 rushing yards and 225 passing yards. All of those numbers are just slightly below average. In this situation, however, the defense could slip another notch. The Falcons are on the road, the weather could hurt them, and the Eagles have a lot more to play for. ... Brian Westbrook should have a good game. He's one of the league's best tailbacks, and this is a lesser defense he'll face. Westbrook was playing hurt earlier in the year, but he seems fairly healthy now. And the team has started using him more since Donovan McNabb got hurt. Westbrook averaged 15 rushing attempts when McNabb was hurt. But in the six games since, he's averaged 20 rushing attempts. He's also run for 88-plus yards three weeks in a row. He'll probably put up his usual 130 yards of total offense. ... Jeff Garcia is in a groove. He's won four games in a row, and in those games he's averaged 238 yards passing and 20 yards rushing, with 7 TDs passing versus only 2 interceptions. There's no reason to suspect he won't put up the same kind of numbers here. ... Atlanta's defense, particularly cornerback DeAngelo Hall, has been prone to giving up big pass plays. So there's a good chance either Donte Stallworth or Reggie Brown -- maybe both -- will get in the end zone in this game. They've combined for 5 TDs in the five games that Garcia has started. ... L.J. Smith has actually played better since McNabb got hurt. Since Garcia took over, Smith has caught 3 TD passes plus a two-point conversion. The tight end had a 65-yard reception that he could have scored on in the win at Dallas.

Pittsburgh (vs. Cin.):
This is pretty much a meaningless game between two teams that had hopes of going deep into the postseason, but that doesn't mean that either will mail it in. Neither team is going to the playoffs, so neither has any incentive to rest players. And this game still has significance in that these teams are in the same division and don't particularly like each other. Probably both would like to at least finish the season on a high note. For Pittsburgh, avoiding a losing record; for Cincinnati, finishing with a winning record. Plus it may be Bill Cowher's last game as Pittsburgh's head coach. The expectation here is you'll see pretty much a full effort from both teams -- not dramatically different than if the teams were playing for the AFC's final wild-card berth. ... Ben Roethlisberger has been up and down this season. The guess here is that he'll end the season on a high note. Cincinnati has been soft against the pass this year. Only the Vikings have allowed more passing yards per game, and the Bengals also have given up 23 TD passes, 6th-most in the league. Roethlisberger might put up about 240 yards and 2 TDs against this defense. Roethlisberger threw 3 interceptions against the Bengals when Cincinnati won 28-20 at Pittsburgh back in week 3, but he played well in all three games against them last year, throwing 8 TDs. The Steelers won both of their games at Paul Brown Stadium last year, including the playoff game that they used as springboard in their run to Super Bowl XL. In their last 10 games, the Bengals have allowed 18 TD passes and an average of 269 passing yards per game. And as an added bonus, Roethlisberger is starting to run more often. He's run in TDs on his own in two of his last three games. Perhaps because of his injuries -- motorcycle, appendectomy and concussion -- Roethlisberger wasn't running earlier in the season. ... Hines Ward caught 14 passes and 4 TDs in his three games against Cincinnati last year. This is an above-average matchup for him. Ward needs 76 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the season. If it's the fourth quarter and he needs a catch to get to that plateau, the Steelers might feed him an extra ball. ... Willie Parker has been a lot more uneven than most of the other top tailbacks. He's been held under 30 yards three times, but he's also gone over 200 yards twice. Including those games, he's gone over 130 yards four times, and he's been held under 50 yards five times. It's not that Parker's effort has been inconsistent, but he's a big-play back who can pick up lots of yards in a hurry if he gets good blocking. We see this as an above-average situation for him. He ran for 133 yards and 2 TDs against Cincinnati in the earlier game, and the Steelers ran the ball effectively in all three of their games against the Bengals last year. ... We see this as an above-average matchup for Heath Miller. He's scored a respectable 5 TDs this year, while the Bengals have allowed 8 TD passes to tight ends, which ties as worst in the league. ... Those in larger leagues might want to try Santonio Holmes. He was the first receiver selected in the draft, and he's come on recently, with 81 and 90 receiving yards in two of his last three games. Holmes potentially could be a top-30 receiver next year; it could depend on what kind of offense the Steelers run next season -- Bill Cowher probably won't be back. Holmes has more big-play ability than Hines Ward, and playing opposite a player of that caliber, Holmes should see plenty of single coverage.

St. Louis (at Minn.):
Marc Bulger had a monster game last week against Washington, throwing for 388 yards and 4 TDs, and he should have another big game here -- maybe 300 yards and 2-3 TDs. Bulger is one of the league's best passers, and that's how to attack this defense. Minnesota has a pair of huge, immovable tackles (Pat Williams, Kevin Williams), but it has some holes in its secondary -- particularly with cornerbacks Fred Smoot and Cedric Griffin unavailable for this game. The Vikings rank No. 1 in run defense but last against the pass, giving up 251 yards per game. The Rams probably will copy the approach of a lot of teams that have played Minnesota, using a lot of a spread formations and not really even trying to run. In the Vikings' last seven games, they've given up an average of 280 passing yards versus only 37 yards per game rushing. Look for a huge game from Bulger, with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce catching lots of balls. ... Steven Jackson is averaging 92 rushing yards per game. He'll probably only get about half of that total against this defense. The Vikings are allowing a league-best 2.6 yards per carry -- over a half yard better than any other team. And this defense is no doubt interested in making sure it breaks the record held by the 2000 Ravens for the fewest rushing yards allowed in a 16-game season. That record seems to be firmly in the Vikings' grasp, since they have a 152-yard cushion to work with. But even if he struggles to about 55 rushing yards (which is what we expect from him), Jackson still has substantial fantasy value. The Rams use him extensively on dumpoff passes, and as often as they'll pass in this game, he's sure to be busy. Opponents have attempted a league-high 38 passes per game against the Vikings, and Jackson leads the Rams with 88 receptions -- he's accounted for 25 percent of his team's receptions. If Bulger completes 25-30 passes in this game -- and we think he will -- Jackson should contribute at least a half dozen receptions. Who knows? Maybe he'll even have a big first half catching the ball and the Rams will wind up making an effort to help Jackson finish the season with 100 catches. Crazier things have happened.

San Diego (vs. Ariz.):
The Chargers would probably like to rest some starters in this one, but a Ravens win will require the Chargers to win to secure the AFC's top seed, and there's little chance of Baltimore losing against Buffalo. San Diego will play its guys. ... Certainly this is a good matchup for the Chargers offense, and a good place for Philip Rivers to get his game back on track. Rivers completed only 1 pass in the first half against Seattle on Sunday, finishing 10 of 30 for 181 yards on the game. In the past two weeks he's just 18 of 53 for 278 yards, with 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. The Chargers won both games, however, stretching their streak to nine in a row, and Rivers' struggles at Seattle were overshadowed by his throwing the game-winning touchdown in the final minute. Regardless, the team would like to get Rivers back into his comfort zone, and playing the Cardinals' 30th-ranked pass defense should help. Before shutting down a 49ers offense that doesn't like to pass very much anyway -- only three teams have fewer passing attempts -- the Cardinals had given up at least 2 TD passes in four straight games. San Diego should also have plenty of success running the ball here, but the guess is the team will want to get Rivers and the passing game clicking again as well. Put him down for 200-220 yards and 1-2 TDs. ... Vincent Jackson will almost certainly be San Diego's No. 1 wideout in 2007. Based on the past three games, of course, he's San Diego's top receiver right now. In those games Jackson is averaging nearly 4 receptions for 86 yards, with 2 TDs. Antonio Gates (also with 2 TDs) is the only other Chargers player to catch a touchdown in those games. Jackson's ability to get behind Seattle's secondary in the final minute of last week's game might turn out to be the most important play of the season for the Chargers. Had they lost, they'd likely have missed out on the AFC's No. 1 seed. This is another game where Jackson is a good bet to put up good yardage numbers and a touchdown. Arizona has given up 10 TD passes over the last five weeks, and all but one of those have gone to wide receivers. Also, Eric Parker (neck) didn't practice on Wednesday and might sit out, so it looks like Jackson is going to play more than usual in this game. ... It's a less favorable matchup for Gates -- the Cardinals have allowed only 1 TD to the tight end position since week 1 -- but he'll probably be a top-5 player at his position anyway. Gates needs 132 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the season; that's probably out of the range where the Chargers will look to get Gates some extra balls. ... LaDainian Tomlinson should also turn in his typical game with 100-plus rushing yards and 1-2 TDs. Until jumping out to a big lead at San Francisco last week, taking the ball out of Frank Gore's hands (11 for 51, with 2 TDs), Arizona had been beaten up on the ground in most of its road games this season. The Cardinals had allowed at least 137 rushing yards in five of those six contests. Tomlinson is a shoo-in to win the NFL's rushing titl