Fantasy Index Weekly WEB Sample -- Yardage Leagues
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FANTASY INDEX™ WEEKLY -- PREVIEW OF WEEK ELEVEN GAMES
NOVEMBER 14, 2002
Thanks for ordering the November 14 version of the Fantasy Index Weekly from FANTASY FOOTBALL INDEX. This update is intended to help you decide on players to start and pickup prior to week eleven's games. If you're looking for player lists to take to a draft, you need a copy of our Fantasy Index Redrafter. This newsletter is updated through November 14 at 4:00 a.m. Eastern time.
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Fantasy Index™ Cheat Sheet-YARDAGE LEAGUES
PLAYER RANKINGS are based on the following scoring systems:
- 6 points for run/catch TDs, 5 for TD throws, 1 point for every 30 passing yards and 1 point for every 15 rushing/receiving yards.
- Kickers graded on straight NFL points, and defenses given credit only for TDs scored on kick and turnover returns.
Rankings updated November 14, 4:00 a.m. Eastern Time
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In the Week 11 Fantasy Index Weekly:
A struggling franchise player (Randy Moss) who could be ready to come to life. What to expect from Pittsburgh's running backs during the final seven weeks of the season. A mediocre tight end (Frank Wycheck) who might be worth using for this week.
Arizona (at Phil.):
Marcel Shipp might start at tailback this week. Thomas Jones looks like
Arizona's version of William Green. In his last five starts, Jones is averaging
only 36 yards per game and 2.4 yards per carry, and fans boo him every time he
steps on the field. Shipp is a better receiver and runs more decisively. He's
averaging 4.8 yards per carry. If Shipp hadn't lost two fumbles in the red zone
against Seattle, the job certainly would be his. Dave McGinnis admits he's
considering a change. "We will discuss that," the coach says. "I
think Marcel will get some more shots." We feel McGinnis will make Shipp
the starter. The young back could make a fantasy impact in week 14 when the
Cardinals host the Lions. But don't look for Shipp or Jones to do anything this
week. The Eagles have one of the league's best defenses, and they'll be focused
after overlooking the Colts last week. Arizona's running backs have had
essentially no success against Philadelphia in any of these teams' six meetings
the last three years. ... Jake Plummer has been better than you might think
against Philadelphia's traditionally rugged defense. He's won three of his last
four starts at the Vet, and he's thrown at least 1 TD (11 total) in his 10
games against them -- that's seven games with 1 TD, two with 2 TDs, and he was
shut out when he was hurt early in the game at Philadelphia two years ago.
Plummer, however, faces an uphill battle here. Not only is he facing one of the
league's best defenses, but he's playing with half a deck. The Cards are
without three of the starters from their offensive line and three of their top
four wide receivers. ... Frank Sanders averaged 81 receptions during the last
three seasons of the '90s. Since then, he's been a lousy receiver. With David
Boston and others out for the year, however, Sanders will get more looks down
the stretch. The veteran has had over 60 yards three weeks in a row. The
Cardinals tend to be much better at home, so Sanders could be worth plugging
into a fantasy lineup in weeks 12 and 14 against the Raiders and Lions. It's
hard to get excited about him against Philadelphia's swarming secondary.
Sanders averages only 30 receiving yards, with no TDs, in his last 10 starts
against the Eagles. ... Youngster Jason McAddley -- who's starting in Boston's
spot -- might be as productive as Sanders down the stretch. He had a nice debut
on Sunday, catching a 42-yard pass on a flea flicker on the first play, then
four more balls for 71 more yards. ... The Cardinals talked in the preseason
about how tight end Freddie Jones was going to catch 60 balls and go to the Pro
Bowl. Either he's lost something or they're not using him correctly. Maybe
both. He's scored only 1 TD and has only 24 receptions for 190 yards all year.
Atlanta (vs. N.O.):
The Saints are scoring a league-high 32 points per game, but they've also
allowed at least 20 points in every game. Their defense is horrible -- above
average against the run and lousy against the pass. The Falcons scored 37
points against them three weeks ago and should have another good outing here,
putting up at least 3 TDs. The Falcons' game plan, however, should be different
this time around. Last time they surprisingly rolled up 260 yards and 4 TDs
(all of their touchdowns) on the ground. This time they should be far more
balanced, with Michael Vick finding holes in a secondary that's allowed more
passing yards than all but four teams. So while Vick has thrown for more than
200 yards only once in his last seven starts, we're looking for about 250 yards
from him this week. He threw for 195 in the last meeting. And while 16 of
Atlanta's 22 offensive touchdowns have come on runs (the league's most-skewed
ratio), we expect half or more of their scores this week to come on passes. Who
will catch all these passes and touchdowns? How about Brian Finneran? With
Shawn Jefferson (sprained foot, questionable) not even certain to play,
Finneran is the clear No. 1 receiver. He caught 4-for-62 in the previous
meeting, when the team used a lot of one-receiver sets. And Atlanta's part-time
tight end, Alge Crumpler, could be worth a flyer. The best two games of his
career have both come in New Orleans, where he's caught 9-for-140 and a TD the
last two years. ... Dan Reeves says T.J. Duckett (questionable) is ready to
return from a foot injury. Duckett and Warrick Dunn should split the work
fairly evenly. Dunn played well and scored in the two games Duckett missed,
rushing for 142 and 129 yards at New Orleans and at Pittsburgh -- both teams
with top 10 run defenses at the time. Dunn hasn't been effective when sharing
time with Duckett.
Baltimore (at Mia.):
Travis Taylor has been terrific ever since Jeff Blake took over at
quarterback, catching 18 passes for 261 yards and 2 TDs in three games. He
might be a top 20 receiver the rest of the way. It's probably a good idea,
however, to sit him down here. The Dolphins have one of the league's best
defenses, and they play better at home than they play in road games. Since the
start of last year, the Dolphins have given up only 14 points per game at Pro
Player Stadium. And the strength of their defense is their pair of aggressive
cornerbacks, Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison, who could smother Taylor. Taylor
caught only 2 passes (though one went for a short TD) when these teams met last
year. ... The Ravens almost certainly will emphasize the run. Baltimore
surprisingly won 20-3 at Miami in a first-round playoff game last year, rolling
up 226 rushing yards. That was without Jamal Lewis (Terry Allen led the way
with 109 yards). Running against Miami, however, is easier said than done.
Travis Henry ran effectively against them four weeks ago, but nobody else has
had much success against them in their last seven games, including Priest
Holmes, Clinton Portis and Curtis Martin (twice). So unless Brian Billick sees
some way to attack this defense that other coaches don't Lewis probably will be
held to about 50 yards. ... Billick says he expects Jeff Blake to start at
least three more games as Chris Redman continues to fight a back injury. If
Blake continues to play well and puts Baltimore in a position to challenge for
a playoff spot, he'll likely keep the job. ... The Dolphins couldn't handle
Tony Gonzalez (140 yards, 3 TDs) in week 4, and the Ravens have a Gonzalez-type
tight end in Todd Heap. Heap is certain to see a lot of balls because Blake
won't want to throw toward Madison and Surtain too often. ... Brandon Stokley
(sprained foot) will miss at least one game. Javin Hunter replaces him in the
lineup. ... One other note on Taylor: Baltimore's remaining seven games are
against teams that have allowed a league-high 67 TD passes to wide receivers.
Buffalo (at K.C.):
A couple of weeks ago, this projected to be an AFL-style shootout, with
both teams scoring at least 4 TDs. Now, it's not certain that either team will
score even 30 points. Both teams' defenses are playing better. Kansas City
allowed more points and yards than anyone during the first seven weeks of the
season, but now their defense is showing signs that maybe it will be an
above-average unit the rest of the way. In its last two games, Kansas City has
held two of the league's best offenses, Oakland and San Francisco, to 10 and 17
points. That's why you see Drew Bledsoe, Travis Henry, Eric Moulds and Peerless
Price slotted as "good" fantasy players this week rather than great
ones. Certainly the Bills have the potential to put up around 38 points here,
but this game might instead turn into something like a 24-20 duel. ... Henry
could be Buffalo's key offensive player here. Kansas City, while trying to plug
the holes in its league-worst pass defense, may be more willing to give away
rushing yards. In four of their last five games, they've given up at least 139
rushing yards, and four of the last six teams they've played have scored at
least 2 rushing TDs. The conditions -- colder weather and a choppy field --
also make running more appealing. ... Jay Riemersma has gone 16 consecutive
games without scoring, but it will be tough for that streak to last much
longer. Kansas City has allowed plenty of big games to tight ends, and
Buffalo's remaining opponents have allowed more touchdowns to tight ends (29)
than anyone in the league -- that's 50 percent over the league average.
Riemersma (questionable) is at less than full health.
Carolina (at T.B.):
The Panthers have only a 50-50 shot to score even one touchdown in this
game. Almost nothing they did worked when they played the Bucs three weeks ago.
They put up only 130 total yards and three field goals in a 12-9 loss. They
don't play as well on the road and Tampa Bay plays much better at home, so this
game shouldn't be nearly as close. The Buccaneers defense has allowed a
league-low 9 TDs; they haven't allowed any TDs in five of their nine games. ...
We don't expect Lamar Smith to do much here, but we can't write him off
entirely. He managed to bang out 82 yards on 22 carries in the earlier meeting
against Tampa Bay, even though the Bucs knew he was essentially Carolina's only
offensive weapon (with Rodney Peete and Chris Weinke hurt, Randy Fasani made
his first NFL start in that game). The Bucs have fallen off against the run
during the last month. They ranked No. 2 against the run after the first six
weeks of the season (at 78 yards per game), but they've given up 159, 110 and
173 rushing yards, plus 4 rushing TDs, in their last three. Apparently the loss
of defensive tackle Booger McFarland has hurt the defense, or perhaps opponents
have found a weakness in their scheme. Smith ran for 80 yards on 17 carries
Sunday against a good New Orleans defense, but 59 of those yards came on one
carry. ... Peete won't do much against Tampa Bay's secondary. The Bucs rank No.
1 against the pass and have allowed only 3 TD passes. Every other team has
allowed at least 7. Peete passed for 310 yards and 2 TDs against New Orleans,
but the Saints have one of the league's worst pass defenses.
Chicago (at St.L.):
Chris Chandler starts in place of Jim Miller (elbow tendinitis), and that's
bad news for the Bears. Their offense went nowhere with Chandler at the
controls in games against the hopeless Lions and Vikings (who're both in the
bottom 4 in scoring defense). Now Chandler has to take on one of the league's
better defenses. The Rams have allowed only 4 offensive touchdowns in their
last four games. ... Anthony Thomas ran for 99 yards against New England, his
2nd-best total of the season. He probably won't have much room here, though.
The Rams are allowing only 76 rushing yards per game in the last five weeks,
2nd-best in the league. ... If you can trade away Marty Booker for anything of
value, do so. The Bears had some success passing early in the year (Miller
tossed 10 TDs in his first five games) but that run appears to be over. Booker
certainly isn't the same guy with Chandler at quarterback. And Chicago's
remaining schedule is tough; their remaining seven opponents have allowed only
68 TD passes, 3rd-fewest in the league. ... Dez White hasn't been effective
this year. He's averaging only 40 yards per game and has caught only 2 of the
team's 14 TD passes. We're assigning him a higher grade than usual this week
because he had a big game at St. Louis in the preseason. The Bears wanted to
gauge whether he could be a starter, so they featured him in that game. White
caught 5 passes for 69 yards and a touchdown, with all of that production
coming with the first unit in the first half. ... The Bears placed David
Terrell (foot) on IR, so Marcus Robinson is the clear No. 3 receiver at this
point. Robinson may replace White at some point. ... The Bears released Fred
Baxter, clearing the way for John Davis to start the rest of the year. Davis is
a better receiver than Baxter; he scored in the first two of his five starts.
Cincinnati (vs. Clev.):
Corey Dillon is never shut down in a close game. He's at his best when the
Bengals are competitive. He posts poor numbers only when the team falls way
behind and is forced to abandon the run. Look at what he's done in the last
four years. In 15 wins, he averages 139 rushing yards and has scored 17 TDs. In
39 losses, he's averaged only 66 rushing yards, with only 13 TDs. Big
difference. The Bengals should be competitive in this game, so we're penciling
in Dillon for a big day. Cleveland ranks only 28th in rushing defense, and
Dillon rushed for 108 yards against them in week 2. Dillon has a history of
huge games against the Browns, going over 135 yards four times since the
expansion Browns joined the league in 1999. He went for 140 and a touchdown to
league Cincinnati to a 24-14 win in Cleveland's last visit to Paul Brown
Stadium. ... Jon Kitna has pumped life into an offense that scored only 1 TD in
September. In Kitna's five starts, the Bengals have scored at least 2 TDs in
all but one game. And he's thrown at least 2 TDs in three straight starts. He
could be worth a fill-in start here; the Browns have allowed at least 2 TD
passes in four of their last five games and they'll probably use a lot of
single coverage while they try to stuff Dillon. ... Chad Johnson is emerging as
a pretty good receiver. Since Kitna moved into the starting lineup, Johnson
averages 76 receiving yards per game, 16th-best in the league. He's also scored
in back-to-back games. He's pretty big and has the speed to get downfield.
Peter Warrick also has scored two games in a row, but Warrick is being used
only as a slot receiver in formations with three or more receivers. Johnson and
Michael Westbrook played a lot more than Warrick at Baltimore; they were on the
field for all of the two-receiver sets.
Cleveland (at Cin.):
Somebody wake up Kevin Johnson. The Browns are playing the Bengals. He's
gone over 100 yards four times against them in the past three years. He's gone
over 100 yards in only one of his other 52 starts as a pro. Johnson also has
scored in three straight games against Cincinnati, including once in a 20-7 win
in week 2 -- his only touchdown this season. Johnson is having an off year
because in the Browns' new system, the quarterbacks are sending more passes to
talented backups like Dennis Northcutt and Andre Davis. Johnson and Tim Couch,
however, know they can carve up this secondary (Johnson went for 266 yards and
2 TDs against them last year), so perhaps he'll be a bigger part of the game
plan this week. Cincinnati's secondary, as usual, is lousy. Only four teams
have allowed more TD passes. ... Jamel White (separated shoulder) will miss a
week or two. That gives William Green a chance to work his way back into a
prominent role. Butch Davis identified fixing the team's league-worst running
game as his No. 1 goal during the team's bye week and says Green will be more
involved during the final seven weeks of the season. So far Green is averaging
only 18 yards per game and 2.3 yards per carry. "I believe William Green
will start for this team in the playoffs," Davis says. "He's too big,
too smart and too fast. We've got to give the kid a chance." We're not
buying; we think Green will go down as another Ron Dayne or Thomas Jones: a
first-round bust. Even against a Cincinnati defense ranked 29th against the
run, we're not confident Green will exceed 40 yards. He carried 17 times for 36
yards against the Bengals in week 2. The Browns haven't run in any of their
four meetings against Cincinnati the last two years. ... Davis appears to have
his heart set on trying to establish a running game. That could translate into
poor numbers for Tim Couch. Couch has thrown 5 TDs in three starts against the
Bengals the last two years.
Dallas (at Ind.):
The Colts have a below-average defense, but it's risky banking on the
Cowboys having much offensive success against anyone. Dallas is averaging a
league-low 12.8 points per game. Chad Hutchinson, after playing baseball for
five years, isn't ready to start, and the Cowboys' running game is only
average. ... Bruce Coslet will call lots of runs this week. The Colts rank
next-to-last in rushing defense, and the Cowboys are better at running (17th)
than passing (29th). We're not counting on a good game from Emmitt Smith,
however. Dave Campo says he wants to increase Troy Hambrick's workload during
the second half of the season, and the Cowboys inserted Hambrick for all of
their short-yardage plays in their last game -- including a TD run at the
goal-line. Also, Indianapolis' beleaguered defense comes off its best game of
the season; it shut down the Eagles Sunday at the Vet. ... Joey Galloway is on
pace to finish with 80 catches and 1,110 yards, but he was far more effective
when Quincy Carter was at quarterback. Carter averaged 209 passing yards per
game, with 8 TDs in seven starts. Hutchinson is averaging 33 fewer yards per
game, with only 1 TD in his two games. The Colts rank 3rd in pass defense and
have allowed 11 TD passes in 9 games. ... Dallas' remaining seven opponents
have allowed a league-low 65 TD passes.
Denver (at Sea.):
Clinton Portis will run for at least 100 yards and a touchdown. The
question is whether he can go for about 170 yards and 2-3 TDs. The Seahawks
rank last in rushing defense and have lost two more linebackers in the last two
weeks -- they'll be without all three of their opening day starters, including
their best two defensive players (Chad Brown and Anthony Simmons). Even when at
full strength, the Seattle defense always has struggled against the scheme of
their former AFC West rivals. The Broncos have had a 100-yard rusher in eight
of the last 10 games in their series. In five of the last eight, they've had a
rusher go over 130 yards. Denver was embarrassed on Monday night by the
Raiders. That may be a good thing. Mike Shanahan has been effective in recent
years at getting his team to bounce back after disappointing losses. The
Broncos blew away San Diego in week 5, for example, after getting upset in a
Monday night game at Baltimore. ... The Broncos say Shannon Sharpe (dislocated
elbow) will miss 2-4 weeks. That will mean more catches for Rod Smith and Ed
McCaffrey and an expanded role for first-rounder Ashley Lelie. Lelie caught a
season-high 8 passes against Oakland. And fill-in tight end Dwayne Carswell
could be a top 5 guy at that position until Sharpe returns. He'll probably
average about 40 receiving yards per game, and he's a good play-action target
in the red zone because he's a much better blocker than Sharpe. The Broncos
have thrown 7 TDs to tight ends in their last eight games against the Seahawks.
... Brian Griese was more responsible than anyone for the blowout loss to the
Raiders. With the team on the verge of taking a 7-3 lead late in the first
quarter, he threw a dumb interception that was returned for a touchdown. If
Griese has a bad game, Shanahan could start thinking about replacing him with
Steve Beuerlein. ... The Broncos traditionally blow away the Seahawks at Mile
High but struggle at Seattle. In their last four trips there, the Broncos have
lost twice (including last year) and won two close games. In the Broncos' last
six games against Seattle, they've finished with 2 TD passes five times and 1
TD pass once. ... Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey historically have posted slightly
better than average numbers against the Seahawks. Smith has scored in five of
his last eight starts against them, including three of his last four starts in
Seattle.
Detroit (vs. NYJ):
James Stewart ran for 122 yards last week and gets a shot at a New York
defense that ranks 3rd-worst against the run. And the Lions are a lot better at
home, where they've had a chance to win in the fourth quarter of all but one of
their last 11 games. But hold on. The Jets are a lot better now than they were
earlier in the season, when they allowed four runners to go over 140 yards in
the first five weeks of the season. The Jets revised their scheme during their
bye week, and the changes seem to be working. In their last four games, the
Jets have allowed a league-low 71 rushing yards per game. So let's call this
only an average game for Stewart, who's averaging 84 rushing and 26 receiving
yards in his eight starts, with 4 TDs. Instead, the Lions may unleash Joey
Harrington against a below-average secondary. Harrington has thrown 8 TDs in
his seven starts. ... Bill Schroeder will be on the bench Sunday. He dropped
all three passes thrown his way against Green Bay, including one that wound up
being returned for a touchdown. Germane Crowell will take his place. Working
his way back from double knee surgery, Crowell isn't in top condition. ...
Az-Zahir Hakim has been up-and-down this season. In his last six games, he's
been held under 33 receiving yards three times. He's finished with 98, 70 and
143 yards in his other three games. Including a punt return, Hakim has scored 4
touchdowns in the seven games Harrington has started. ... Tight end Mikhael
Ricks is playing only part-time -- he's not a good enough blocker to play
full-time. ... The Lions also added Jacquez Green Wednesday; he's a poor man's
version of Hakim -- a fast, little guy with suspect hands and toughness.
Green Bay (at Minn.):
Terry Glenn has been a disappointment this year. He'll probably have a good
game here, though. He gets a shot at one of the league's worst secondaries, and
Glenn, because of his speed and style of play, has always been more effective
on artificial turf. In six games on grass, Glenn has caught only 13 passes for
217 yards. In his three games on turf, he's caught 21 passes for 290 yards and
his only touchdown. Last week Glenn played his best grass game of the season,
catching 3-for-82 and coming within inches of scoring a touchdown. ... Brett
Favre doesn't play nearly as well in domes. He's 9-18 all-time indoors, with
only 1.5 TD passes per game. On grass he's 101-37 and throws 1.9 TD passes per
game. He's also only 2-8 lifetime in the Metrodome, including a shocking 35-13
loss last year to a Minnesota team that was almost as bad as this year's. We're
ignoring those trends this time, however. The Vikings have a crummy pass
defense, and Favre is in a zone right now. He's thrown at least 2 TDs in all
but one of his complete games. And Favre has started to reverse that dome trend
in recent years, throwing at least 2 TDs in his last seven dome games. ...
Ahman Green left Sunday's game with a mild concussion, but he's practicing and
is fine. Green, like Glenn, has breakaway speed that's enhanced on turf. In his
two starts at Minnesota, he's gone 25-for-161 and a TD and 11-for-73. This
Minnesota defense is much better against the run (10th) than pass (31st), so
Green might not play a huge role in this one. We're leaving him near his usual
spot, however, because three backs (Lamar Smith, Shaun Alexander and Tiki
Barber) have huge games against the Vikings.
Houston (vs. Jac.):
Corey Bradford got everyone's attention when he had a bunch of long catches
in September. He's being double-teamed now, so David Carr is looking in other
directions. During the first six games of the season, Bradford caught 20 passes
and 5 TDs, averaging 71 yards per game. In his last three games, he's caught 9
passes for only 91 yards, with no touchdowns. Bradford accounted for 61 percent
of the Texans' receiving yards in their first five games. In the last three
weeks, he's accounted for only 18 percent of the receiving yards. Bradford
faces a team here that gave him extensive attention in week 8, limiting him to
1 catch for only 16 yards. ... When these teams met three weeks ago, Houston
won 21-19 at Alltel Stadium. The Texans, however, didn't have much offensive
success in that game. Jonathan Wells ran for only 27 yards on 17 carries, so he
was benched for most of the second half. James Allen -- who's smaller and
quicker -- was more effective, gaining 40 yards on 10 carries. Carr passed for
184 yards, including a fourth quarter touchdown to tight end Billy Miller, who
was the leading receiver with 3 catches for 78 yards.
Indianapolis (vs. Dall.):
Reggie Wayne appears to be ready to pass Qadry Ismail and become the No. 2
target in the passing attack. Two weeks ago, he caught 5 passes for a
career-high 93 yards against Tennessee. Then last week, he caught 6 passes for
121 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. He's been lining up in the slot
in three receiver formations -- the team believes that with his size and
toughness (and below-average speed), Wayne is best suited to work the middle of
the field. Tony Dungy says Ismail (questionable) will probably miss at least a
week after spraining a knee at Philadelphia. Ismail hasn't scored since week 3
and hasn't had more than 30 receiving yards in any of his last four games. ...
Edgerrin James (hamstring/ribs) practiced Wednesday and should return to his
usual role Sunday. The Colts now have option, however, of either holding him
out an additional week or having him play only part time. Officially, he's
listed as questionable. They liked the way James Mungro ran through a good
Philadelphia defense for 114 yards and 2 TDs. GM Bill Polian concedes his
original plan was to use James -- who underwent major knee surgery last year --
only part-time until the second half of this season. Then Dominic Rhodes got
hurt, forcing the Colts to use James more than they wanted. Now they seem to
have found an adequate insurance policy in Mungro. The team also has free agent
rookie Ricky Williams, who was ahead of Mungro on the depth chart until
straining a hamstring prior to week 9's games. Mungro didn't practice Thursday,
but Dungy says he's fine. ... The Colts are at their worst when they're playing
good teams -- particularly on the road. They can fall behind, and then none of
Peyton Manning's play-action stuff works and he starts forcing things and
throwing interceptions. None of that applies here. The Cowboys have an
above-average defense (11th against the run, 12th against the pass) but their
offense ranks last in scoring. And Dallas doesn't have any cornerbacks who can
handle Marvin Harrison.
Jacksonville (at Hou.):
Fred Taylor is in a funk. He hasn't played well in five of his last six
games. In the first three weeks of the season, Taylor averaged 5.2 yards per
carry and 113 yards per game. But other than one big game at Baltimore -- 151
yards -- Taylor since then is averaging only 56 yards per game and 2.8 yards
per carry. Considering he's running behind a below-average line, Taylor might
be freelancing too much. By simply hitting holes hard and taking what's there,
Stacey Mack has outplayed Taylor three weeks in a row, picking up 148 yards on
22 carries -- that's 6.7 yards per attempt. Tom Coughlin says he'll consider
using Mack a little more but likes the team's current arrangement. Mack is a
better inside banger than Taylor, so he'll continue to carry in goal-line
situations. Normally you lick your chops at the chance to start a running back
against an expansion defense, but the Texans are an exception. Only one running
back -- Travis Henry -- has had a big game against them. Three weeks ago,
Taylor gained only 84 yards on 25 carries against them, with Mack stepping in
to score the team's only rushing touchdown. ... Jimmy Smith doesn't look like
the same Jimmy Smith this year. He's lost some speed and isn't beating double
teams as easily. He still could finish the season strong, however.
Jacksonville's remaining opponents have allowed 65 TD passes to wide receivers,
2nd-most in the league. Smith caught 4 passes for 80 yards and a touchdown when
these teams met three weeks ago. Mark Brunell wasn't sharp in that game,
hitting on only 16 of 34 passes. ... Bobby Shaw (toe) didn't practice Wednesday
but is expected to return to practice today.
Kansas City (vs. Buff.):
Kansas City is averaging 30 points per game. Buffalo is allowing a
league-high 30 points per game. You do the math. We'll toss out only one
caveat: Kansas City has played two of its worst offensive games the last two
weeks, putting up only 20 and 13 points against the Raiders and 49ers, while
the Bills defense have played two of its best games recently, shutting down the
Dolphins (10 points) and Lions (17). Neither of those teams, however, have
offenses as good as Kansas City's. ... Tony Gonzalez has been in a slump
recently. In his last five games, he's scored only once and has been held under
25 receiving yards three times. The crystal ball, however, sees a bounce-back
game here. The Bills have allowed a touchdown pass to a tight end in two thirds
of their games. ... Priest Holmes keeps scoring every week, but he's definitely
getting the star treatment from opposing defenses -- they're targeting him.
He's been held under 4 yards per carry in four of his last six games, and he
had particularly tough games against the Dolphins (52 yards), Chargers (63) and
49ers (51). Holmes is beginning a soft portion of the schedule, with games
against the Bills, Cardinals and Seahawks, but then he faces a murderer's row
of run defenses down the stretch -- St. Louis, Denver, San Diego and Oakland.
... The Bills have allowed 19 TD passes -- more than everyone except the Titans
-- but we're still not excited about Johnnie Morton or Eddie Kennison. Morton
is probably one of the league's top 30 receivers, but he's just not getting it
done. He hasn't even caught a pass in three of his last four games. Kennison
caught 8 passes for 134 yards at San Francisco, but he's not a reliable
receiver. Kennison didn't have more than 45 yards in any of his previous four
games. The team replaces these guys with Marc Boerigter in one-receiver
formations. That's part of the problem. They also involve Gonzalez and Holmes
in the passing attack, and they're more of a running team any way.
Miami (vs. Balt.):
Ray Lewis and Chris McAlister might return this week. That's bad news for
Miami's struggling offense. The Dolphins have scored only 10 points in each of
Ray Lucas' three starts, and they're unlikely to put up more than 17 here if
Baltimore's defense is at full strength. Before the injuries started to take
their toll, the Ravens played extremely tough defense in each of their first
five games. They shut down the Panthers, Bucs, Broncos, Browns and Colts. And
the Ravens held Miami to 3 points in a playoff game last year -- the Dolphins
had no success either running or passing. ... Ricky Williams has been held
under 55 yards in three of his last four starts, and he could go under 70 yards
here in what projects to be a low-scoring duel. The Ravens have an active front
seven and will try to force Lucas to beat them. ... Jay Fiedler (thumb) is
expected to return in week 14. Miami's remaining seven games are against
defenses that have allowed a league-high 111 TD passes, so Fiedler could give a
nice push to fantasy teams in the final weeks of the season. ... Cris Carter
(kidney) will miss at least one more game and could miss the rest of the
season. James McKnight takes his spot. ... Randy McMichael is a talented tight
end, but it's probably best to mothball him until Fiedler returns. McMichael
averaged 49 yards per game, with 3 TDs, in Fiedler's six starts. With Lucas at
quarterback, McMichael has caught only 4 passes for 30 yards the last two
weeks.
Minnesota (vs. G.B.):
If you've got Randy Moss on your team, your best hope is that Mike Tice
benches Daunte Culpepper again -- and the sooner the better. Todd Bouman
replaced Culpepper in the fourth quarter against the Giants, and Moss
immediately came to life. He caught only 1 pass for 5 yards with Culpepper at
quarterback. After Bouman took over, Moss almost immediately got downfield for
48- and 32-yard receptions. Moss has been working hard and keeping his mouth
shut ever since that parking lot incident that caused him to spend a night in
jail. He still might be the best receiver in the league. It's clearly
Culpepper's fault that Moss isn't producing. And when Bouman takes over --
which should happen any time now -- Moss will start cranking out touchdowns and
100-yard games. When Bouman took over for three games last year, Moss had at
least 7 catches, 144 yards and a touchdown in every game. Culpepper has
tremendous skills, but he apparently needs an offseason to sort out his
problems. His contract runs through 2003; at this point it looks the team will
allow him to play out that deal without offering an extension. Moss had at
least 130 receiving yards in five of his first six games against Green Bay,
with 7 TDs, but he didn't do anything against them last year, finishing with 10
catches for 83 yards and no TDs in two games. ... On paper, this will be a
Packers blowout. Top to bottom, they're a lot better than the Vikings. Green
Bay, however, has a history of playing poorly in domes, while the Vikings are
significantly better at home. Minnesota is 0-12 on the road the last two years
(only three of those games were even close) but they're 7-6 at home during the
same span, and they were competitive in all but one of those games. The Vikings
played arguably their best game of last season when they blew away a 4-1
Packers team 35-13. ... The Vikings will emphasize the run. They rank 2nd in
the league in rushing at 152 yards per game (Michael Bennett has gone over 100
yards three weeks in a row), while Green Bay ranks only 23rd in rushing defense
has a banged up defensive line. In addition, using the run will keep the
pressure off Culpepper. Bennett, who's from Milwaukee, ran for 104 yards in his
only start against Green Bay last year. ... Goal-line specialist Moe Williams
has scored in six straight games. ... Byron Chamberlain has only 74 receiving
yards in his last four games.
New England (at Oak.):
The Patriots want to bring more balance to their offense, but this
definitely projects to be a passing game. New England ranks 4th in passing and
only 22nd in rushing; they've scored 21 of their 26 TDs through the air. The
Raiders, meanwhile, are much better against the run (9th) than pass (27th). So
look for Tom Brady to let it rip. He went 32 of 52 for 312 in a snowstorm when
the Patriots beat Oakland 16-13 in the playoffs last year. ... The Patriots
could use their tight ends a whole bunch in this game. Jermaine Wiggins led the
team with 10 catches when these teams met in the playoffs last year. Against
Chicago, Christian Fauria and Cam Cleeland played a lot more than Daniel
Graham. Graham has terrific ability but is still learning about blocking and
route adjustments. The first-rounder probably will be used only in spots this
season -- throw him a few passes and see if he can make some big plays. Fauria
looks far more likely to catch a touchdown because the team uses him on
play-action flips around the goal-line (he's caught 4 TDs). ... Troy Brown has
been quiet since injuring his knee in week 3, but now he's clearly back to full
strength. He caught 11 passes for 90 yards against the Bears. Brown caught only
4 passes for 33 yards in the playoff win over Oakland last year, so perhaps the
Raiders will shut him down by assigning Charles Woodson to watch him full-time.
David Patten was New England's top wide receiver in the previous meeting,
catching 8 for 107. ... Deion Branch has the speed and moves to score from
anywhere on the field, but he's not getting the looks he got earlier in the
year. He's caught only 1 pass for 9 yards in the last three games. He's playing
a lot. He's just not getting the ball. ... Kevin Faulk has caught 3 TDs in the
last two games, and maybe we haven't seen the last of him. New England's
remaining opponents have allowed a league-high 25 TD passes to running backs.
New Orleans (at Atl.):
The Falcons might have a good feel for how to play Aaron Brooks. He had a
lousy game against them last year, when Atlanta won 20-13 at the Superdome. And
he had his worst game of the season against them in week 8, throwing 2 TDs but
completing only 16 of 35, with 2 interceptions, in a 37-35 loss. Atlanta threw
a lot of blitzes at him and likely will do the same here. New Orleans managed
to score four touchdowns anyway because Deuce McAllister had a huge game,
rushing for 115 yards and scoring 3 TDs. It's difficult, however, to move
Brooks too far down any list because he keeps producing. Brooks played poorly
for most of Sunday's game at Carolina but still finished with 257 yards and a
touchdown. And he has several weapons at his disposal; Joe Horn is a potential
Pro Bowler, and emerging first-rounder Donte Stallworth is a threat to score
every time he touches the football. And Atlanta's defense -- while it's shown
flashes of potential this year -- has played three above-average offenses this
year and allowed four touchdowns every time. Brooks has thrown 0, 1, 1 and 2
TDs in his four starts against the Falcons. ... Horn has played pretty well in
Brooks' four starts against Atlanta, putting up (in order) 116, 74, 138 and 61
yards, plus 2 TDs and a 52-yard catch down to the 2. ... The Saints probably
will build their game plan around McAllister this week. They don't want to put
Brooks under too much pressure against this defense. The Falcons rank 26th
against the run and have allowed at least 150 rushing yards three weeks in a
row, but a lot of those yards have come on reverses and big plays. Jamal Lewis
(12 for 36) and Amos Zereoue (37 for 123 in five quarters) had to work hard for
every yard against them the last two weeks. The Falcons did a reasonable job
against McAllister in week 8, but he broke a few longer runs and finished with
115 yards on 17 carries. Longer runs, of course, are part of the game --
McAllister has had a 20-plus yard run in six straight games. ... Stallworth is
as fast as anyone in the league. He's scored in all 5 of the games he's seen
significant action in. In the next week or two, he'll probably move ahead of
Jerome Pathon into the starting lineup. It doesn't really matter; the team uses
three receivers most of the time anyway.
N.Y. Giants (vs. Wash.):
The Giants are running out of receivers. Ron Dixon could miss two games,
and Ike Hilliard and Tim Carter are for the year. So free agents Herman Moore
and Tony Simmons, signed Wednesday, will play a lot immediately. Regardless of
who lines up at wide receiver, the three principals of the passing attack will
be Jeremy Shockey (hobbled by a turf toe injury), Amani Toomer and Tiki Barber.
With essentially no other reliable targets, each of those guys should catch at
least 5 passes in every game. ... Washington won the last meeting between these
two NFC East rivals 35-21. In the previous four games, however, these two
teams' offenses combined to score only 7 TDs. That's the kind of low-scoring
struggle we could see on Sunday. Both teams have good defenses and struggling
offenses. ... Washington's defense ranks 16th against the run and 10th against
the pass, and it's been much better in the last month as its players adjust to
coordinator Marvin Lewis' scheme. Washington shut down Edgerrin James and Shaun
Alexander, and they did a terrific job against Fred Taylor for most of last
week's game. So don't look for a big game from Tiki Barber against this bunch.
As both a runner and involved receiver, however, Barber should finish with
around 100 total yards. In three starts against Washington the last two years,
Barber hasn't scored but has put up 106, 108 and 88 combined yards. ... Ron
Dayne has been playing more since Jim Fassel took over the play calling but
definitely won't be a factor against this defensive front. Against a lesser
Washington defense, Dayne gained only 58 yards on 24 carries last year. ...
Washington has some of the league's top cornerbacks, but they also use a lot of
man coverage, giving Toomer the chance to make some plays. He was good against
them last year, catching 16 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown in the two
games. ... Injuries have hurt Shockey's effectiveness. He's been held under 25
receiving yards in three of his last four games. It probably won't be until
next year that he starts putting up the big numbers he's capable of. ... Kerry
Collins has thrown 1, 0, 1 and 3 TDs in his four starts against Washington the
last two years. ... The Giants had all kinds of problems with their snaps and
holds on kicks last week. Presumably, they'll iron out those problems before
Sunday and Matt Bryant will be fine.
N.Y. Jets (at Det.):
We were off the Chad Pennington bandwagon a few weeks back, now we're
hopping back on. The Jets are going to face a lot of good teams down the
stretch -- Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Patriots, Packers -- but none of them have
good pass defenses. New York's remaining seven opponents have allowed 111 TD
passes, most in the league. So perhaps this Pennington guy, who's completing 70
percent of his passes, can be a top 5 quarterback the rest of the way.
Certainly he'll have a good game here. The Lions have a Swiss cheese secondary.
They've given up at least 269 passing yards (and an average of 2 TDs) to each
of the five good quarterbacks they've faced. ... Santana Moss is the best punt
returner in the league right now, and quick guys like him often are harder to
tackle on artificial turf. So he's a candidate to score a long touchdown. Ditto
for wide receiver Laveranues Coles, who might be even faster. ... Curtis Martin
is struggling. He's averaging only 51 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry.
Even when the team has played well in its last four games under Pennington,
Martin has averaged only 62 yards per game. He could break out of his slump,
however, at any time. New York's remaining opponents have allowed a league-high
68 rushing TDs -- that's a good indicator, isn't it? And Pennington is playing
well, so Martin shouldn't see many eight-man fronts. This week Martin faces a
Lions defense that surprisingly ranks 6th-best in rushing defense over the last
nine weeks at 97 yards per game. That's either a statistical aberration, or
defensive coordinator Kurt Schottenheimer is doing a hell of a job with a
hodgepodge collection of mediocre players. We're not sure which.
Oakland (vs. N.E.):
Let's put Charlie Garner down as the bounceback player of the week. He
carried 5 times for only 2 yards against Denver's top-ranked run defense as the
Raiders emphasized the pass. Oakland could do the opposite this week -- the
Patriots rank 2nd against the pass but 27th against the run. Garner could run
for about 120 yards. In six of their past seven games, the Patriots have
allowed a running back to run for 99-plus yards. Priest Holmes (180 yards, 3
TDs), LaDainian Tomlinson (217, 2), Ricky Williams (105), Ahman Green (136, 2),
Clinton Portis (111, 2) and Anthony Thomas (99, 1). Garner should be that guy
this week. And Zack Crockett could get in on the fun as well. Crockett has
scored only 1 TD all season, but he's the guy the Raiders use in short-yardage
situations. If the ball winds up on the 1-yard line, chances are Crockett will
punch it in. ... Ty Law has shut down a lot of good receivers this year --
Plaxico Burress, Eric Moulds and Marty Booker. Opposing No. 2 receivers, in
fact, have been more productive this year against New England then their go-to
guys. Jerry Rice is clearly Rich Gannon's favorite receiver -- Rice has
outperformed Tim Brown in six of the last seven games -- so perhaps the
Patriots will try to take him out of the game with Law. Brown, in a more
favorable matchup (against Otis Smith) may be the lead receiver this week. And
Jerry Porter can't be ignored. In his last eight games, Porter averages 63
receiving yards and has scored a team-high 6 TDs. Rice has 5 TDs and Brown 2.
Porter's best game of the season (7-for-117) came against a team (Buffalo) with
a pair of good cornerbacks, making the matchup of Porter against a nickel back
more favorable. ... The Raiders are using rookie tight end Doug Jolley more and
more. He's a better receiver than Roland Williams.
Philadelphia (vs. Ariz.):
The Eagles have scored only five touchdowns in their last four games.
That's quite a slump for a team that ranked No. 2 in scoring after week 6 at 33
points per game. Maybe they can get back on track here. They're looking to
re-establish themselves after showing up flat against the Colts, and Arizona's
defense is one of the lesser units in the league. The Eagles should be able to
both run and pass effectively, and chances are they'll coast to something like
a 30-10 win. They've buried Arizona in three of four meetings the last two
years. ... The Eagles might run the ball more than usual here. In 2000, they
had two of their best running games of the season against Arizona. And Correll
Buckhalter ran for 134 yards in one of the two games against the Cardinals last
year. This season, the Eagles rank 1st in rushing at 153 yards per game (their
running backs are actually only average, but Donovan McNabb is averaging 51
yards per game). ... McNabb has put up exactly 2 combined TDs in each of his
five career starts against Arizona. ... James Thrash has caught only 12 passes
for 114 yards, with no TDs, in his last four starts. He's not a big-time
receiver. The Eagles might look to add a receiver in the offseason and move
Thrash into a complementary role. Thrash at this point looks only nominally
better than the team's other two mediocre receivers, Todd Pinkston and backup
Antonio Freeman. One of these guys should step up here against one of the
league's lesser secondaries. Both Pinkston and Thrash had one 2-TD game and one
dud game against Arizona last year. ... Chad Lewis has caught at least 4 passes
in all four games against Arizona the last two years. He scored in only one of
those games, however. ... McNabb (probable) is a little gimpy after having his
ankle and knee twisted late in the Colts game. He may look to run less this
week.
Pittsburgh (at Tenn.):
All six of the touchdowns the Steelers have scored the last two weeks have
come through the air. Look for that streak to continue here. The Titans are
much better against the run than pass. They've allowed a league-high 20 passing
but only 4 rushing TDs. And they have a history of success against the
Steelers. In these teams' 10 meetings the last five years, Jerome Bettis has
been held under 100 yards every time, averaging only 55 yards per game and 3.4
yards per carry. He's gone over 100 yards in almost half (31 of 66) of his
games against all other teams during the same span. With Bettis (questionable)
still rehabbing a sprained knee, the Steelers will start Zereoue again and
probably use Bettis only part time. When Bettis returns to 100 percent, he'll
likely start, with Zereoue moving back into a part-time role. Zereoue has run
for over 110 yards in back-to-back games, but he hasn't played all that well.
He's getting stopped at the line of scrimmage far too often. Against an Atlanta
defense ranked just 22nd against the run, Zereoue averaged only 3.3 yards per
carry. The long-term prognosis for either of these backs isn't good; they'll
share time and the Steelers have a tough closing schedule. Pittsburgh's
remaining opponents have allowed a total of 47 rushing TDs, 3rd-fewest in the
league. ... So instead, look for the Steelers to go after the league's
23rd-ranked pass defense. Tommy Maddox has thrown at least 2 TDs in five of his
six starts and comes off a career-high 473 yards and 4 TDs. He faces a
secondary that's allowed at least 2 TDs in all but two games -- when it faced
rookie quarterbacks David Garrard and David Carr. ... Plaxico Burress comes off
a career-best 9 catches for 253 yards and 2 TDs, and he killed the Titans last
year, catching 14 passes for 265 yards and a TD in 34-7 and 34-24 Pittsburgh
wins. ... Hines Ward has scored in six of nine games (8 TDs) and also comes off
a huge game -- 11-for-139 against the Falcons. Ward caught 9 passes for 119
yards and 1 TD in the two games against Tennessee last year.
St. Louis (vs. Chi.):
There's probably a 60 percent chance Marshall Faulk (questionable) will
play. Mike Martz isn't ruling him out, and Faulk has been a quick healer in the
past. He returned two weeks after an arthroscopic knee surgery two years ago.
This time Faulk has a sprained right ankle and a strained plantar fascia muscle
in his left foot. Faulk showed surprising improvement Wednesday, and Martz says
he'll let Faulk decide whether he'll play. "I have complete trust in his
judgment," Martz says. Martz says if Faulk can't play, Lamar Gordon will
replace him, with Trung Canidate perhaps also seeing some action. Gordon has
been the backup tailback in five of the last six games and ran hard against the
Chargers. ... Martz says Kurt Warner (pinkie) will return to the starting
lineup in week 12. Warner projects to face tough defenses in his first two
weeks back (Washington and Philadelphia), but then would get a shot at three
creampuffs in a row (Kansas City, Arizona and Seattle). ... Marc Bulger put up
huge numbers last week -- 453 yards and 4 TDs -- primarily because the Rams
couldn't run against San Diego's tough defensive front. That probably won't
happen this week. Chicago ranks only 20th in rushing defense and should have
problems with the Rams' running game, even if Faulk is out. ... Isaac Bruce
caught 3 TDs last week, but that's probably not the beginning of a hot streak.
Bruce doesn't look like the same player he was earlier in his career. He scored
in only 5 of 19 games last year.
San Diego (vs. S.F.):
LaDainian Tomlinson is at his worst when the Chargers fall behind and are
forced to abandon the run. That's a concern here against the 7-2 49ers. San
Francisco has an above-average defense and an offense that can score points in
a hurry. Tomlinson's three worst games of the year have come in the losses to
the Broncos (48 yards) and Jets (60 yards), and the game against Kansas City
(78 yards), when the Chargers were behind for most of the game. He averages 130
yards in the other six games, including the fall-from-ahead loss to the Rams
Sunday. Tomlinson has run for at least 84 yards in each of those games. ...
Curtis Conway is San Diego's undisputed go-to receiver, but we're cool on him
this week. What defense has allowed fewer TD passes to wide receivers than the
49ers? Only the Bucs. ... Tim Dwight is now both playing wide receiver and
returning punts (the team released Tamarick Vanover). Dwight scores a couple of
long touchdowns every season, and it could still happen for him this year. ...
Drew Brees has put up his best numbers when the Chargers have fallen behind and
played catch-up. That's a possibility this week. The Chargers won't win this
game by simply handing off to Tomlinson and letting him run for about 100 yards
and 2 TDs. ... Tight end Stephen Alexander has essentially no fantasy value. He
hasn't scored in any of his seven games, and he's gone over 12 receiving yards
only twice.
San Francisco (at S.D.):
This is a game for Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens. The Chargers have a
terrific run defense and a lousy secondary. They'll likely shut down Garrison
Hearst and Kevan Barlow -- then watch Garcia throw for about 300 yards and 3
TDs. Only one team has allowed fewer rushing yards than the Chargers, but only
two teams have allowed more yards through the air. They've allowed 17 passing
versus only 4 rushing touchdowns. In a similar matchup two years ago, Garcia
threw for 323 yards and 2 TDs to direct a 45-17 blowout of the Chargers. Owens
played but didn't start that game because of a turf toe injury. ... Steve
Mariucci says he expects Tai Streets to remain in the starting lineup all year.
Mariucci says he'd like to get J.J. Stokes more playing time, but only in
three-receiver sets. ... Eric Johnson (back) is expected to miss a fourth
straight game. ... Hearst keeps suffering minor injuries -- a shoulder stinger
last week, and hamstring strains in the previous two weeks. He'll alternate
series with Barlow.
Seattle (vs. Den.):
Shaun Alexander is much better at home. In his last 12 games in Seattle, he
averages 113 rushing yards and 5.1 yards per carry, with 16 TDs. He cooked
Denver for 142 yards and 2 TDs at Husky Stadium last year. But maybe this is a
week to sit him down. Alexander hasn't been as effective at home this season --
he's been shut down by Arizona and Washington -- and Denver ranks No. 1 against
the run. Even last year, Denver had some success against him. He scored a
60-yard TD on the first series; otherwise, he gained only 82 yards on 32
carries -- that's just 2.6 yards per carry. Then, when the teams met later in
the year at Denver, Alexander alternated series with Ricky Watters and gained
only 28 yards on 12 carries. Again, fewer than 3 yards per carry. Like Fred
Taylor, Alexander is a patient runner who'll ad lib, and that isn't a good
match with the team's poor offensive line. Maurice Morris has had carries in
three of the last four games, and in each of those games he's averaged at least
a yard more per attempt by decisively hitting holes and taking what's there.
Morris replaced Alexander for most of the second half at Arizona and banged out
72 yards on 15 carries. Alexander sat out a lot of that game because of a minor
shoulder injury. If he doesn't start running more effectively, Alexander might
slip into a time-share situation with Morris. ... Koren Robinson has played
well in three of his last four starts. He's showing the speed and
after-the-catch skills that enticed the Seahawks to select him in the first
round. Since Darrell Jackson got hurt, Robinson has caught 15 passes for 196
yards in two games. Jackson, recovering from a serious concussion, is
practicing and says he's fine, but the team might hold him out one more week.
Jackson was the go-to receiver prior to his injury, but now Robinson may have
snatched that role -- for good. ... Matt Hasselbeck has played surprisingly
well in his three starts. He's completing 69 percent of his passes, with 3 TDs
and no interceptions, and averaging 226 yards per game. Both the coaching staff
and Hasselbeck, however, are playing it safe -- trying to avoid mistakes rather
than make plays. He's averaging only 9.1 yards per completion, for example,
which is over 2 yards fewer than the league average. Hasselbeck hasn't been
effective -- either last year or this year -- in the red zone or on third
downs, so we don't see him making a big fantasy impact this year. The Broncos
almost certainly will try to force Hasselbeck to beat them by putting the
clamps on Alexander. Hasselbeck completed only 17 of 37, with 2 interceptions
and 1 TD, in Seattle's 20-7 loss at Mile High last year. ... Jerramy Stevens
returned from an ankle sprain and saw spot duty against Arizona. Within a week
or two (maybe this week), Stevens should move ahead of Itula Mili and start at
tight end. Mili has filled a security blanket role in Hasselbeck's starts,
posting his best three days of the season -- 23, 71 and 55 yards, with 1 TD.
Tampa Bay (vs. Car.):
When these teams met three weeks ago, the Bucs won a 12-9 streetfight.
Neither offense could do anything. This one won't be as close. The Bucs are
much better at home, and the Panthers aren't nearly as good on the road. Tampa
Bay's offense has scored 11 touchdowns in four home games, versus only 5 TDs in
five games on the road. Carolina, meanwhile, has allowed only one team (the
powerful Saints) to score more than 1 TD at Ericsson Stadium, but they've
allowed at least 2 TDs in each of their five games away from home. The Bucs
weren't healthy for the earlier game either; they were missing Brad Johnson,
Keenan McCardell and two offensive linemen. All of those guys are healthy now,
so pencil this one in as something like a 24-6 Tampa Bay win. ... Jon Gruden
says he wants to go with more of a committee approach at running back. Aaron
Stecker, who's been playing more on passing downs in recent weeks, broke a
59-yard gain on his only carry in the last game. And Gruden says he wants to
see what rookie Travis Stephens can do. It seems like Michael Pittman, who's
running for only 46 yards per game and 3.5 yards per carry, isn't going to play
any more than half time the rest of the way. Mike Alstott will be featured in
goal-line situations. Alstott has scored 48 TDs in the 58 games the Bucs have
won during his tenure, but we're slightly down on him this week because this
game doesn't project to be a walk in the park -- Carolina has a good defense.
Tennessee (vs. Pitt.):
There will be 256 regular season games played this year. This one has the
most extensive track record. Bill Cowher (1992) and Jeff Fisher (1994) have
been with their teams longer than anybody, they use the same systems year after
year, and these former AFC Central rivals have been meeting twice a year. The
principals of the Tennessee offense -- Steve McNair and Eddie George -- also
have been in place since 1996. The Titans are 7-3 against Pittsburgh the last
five years (0-2 last season), but they generally haven't put up good numbers.
In 12 starts against the Steelers, George has gone over 100 yards only once and
scored only 3 TDs. Not counting his 153-yard game, George averages only 55
yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry against them. McNair averages only 196
passing yards in nine starts against the Steelers, with 10 TD passes, 10
interceptions and 3 TD runs. ... McNair has passed for only 82 and 109 yards
the last two weeks. He'll pass for at least 200 here, however. The Steelers are
much better against the run (4th) than pass (26th), and they'll keep George
under control. McNair has had some success against much better Pittsburgh
secondaries in his last two home games against them, throwing for 227 and 334
yards, with 2 TDs. Derrick Mason caught 15 passes for 206 yards and 1 TD in
those two games. McNair is officially listed as questionable, but there's no
doubt he'll play; numerous times in recent years, he's started despite not
practicing all week. ... Frank Wycheck has a history of big games against the
Steelers. In six meetings the last three years, he's caught 27 passes and 4 TDs
(including one touchdown in each of the games last year). In 51 games against
any other team since 1999, Wycheck has scored only 6 TDs. Wycheck left last
week's game with a concussion and is listed as questionable, but keep in mind
that Fisher doesn't categorize players as probable. Wycheck has been termed
questionable many times in the last seven years, and he's never missed a start.
Washington (at NYG):
Other than working over a poor Indianapolis team that couldn't stop the
run, Washington's offense has played poorly over the last four weeks. And
Washington has faced three good defenses this year and has scored a total of
one touchdown in those three games. So matched up here against one of the
league's top half dozen defenses, Washington is likely to struggle. ... Stephen
Davis (questionable) is practicing and will return after missing two games with
a sprained knee. Steve Spurrier says Davis might play only part-time, spelled
by Kenny Watson. The team could run more in this game. Spurrier has
second-guessed himself for trying to pass too much in the last two weeks, and
the Giants have had some problems against the run since losing Keith Hamilton a
month ago. In their last three games, the Giants have allowed 295, 126 and 224
rushing yards. Davis ran for 107 yards on 29 carries in his last game against
the Giants, but they usually play him tough. In his previous three starts
against them, he totaled only 157 yards on 54 carries -- that's 2.9 yards per
carry. And Davis hasn't scored against them since he had two big games (126 and
183 yards, with 4 TDs) back in 1999. Davis' long-term prognosis isn't good; the
team may replace him with Watson in passing situations, and their remaining
seven opponents have allowed a league-low 40 rushing TDs. ... Rod Gardner has
scored in back-to-back games, but he could be bottled up here. Gardner is a
slower, less talented version of Terrell Owens or David Boston, and the Giants
shut down both of those guys earlier this year. New York's young cornerbacks,
Will Allen and Will Peterson, are doing a terrific job. They shut down Randy
Moss for most of last week's game. ... Shane Matthews has played poorly the
last two weeks. He could be benched if he doesn't get some points on the
scoreboard in the first half. ... Derrius Thompson has a sprained wrist but
says he'll play.
ADDITIONAL INJURY INFORMATION:
ARIZONA: WR David Boston (knee, IR) is out for the year. OT John Fina (ankle) is out until week 12-13. WR MarTay Jenkins (broken shoulder, IR) is out for the year. C Mike Gruttadauria (knee) hasn't played since week 9 and is doubtful to return this week.
ATLANTA: RB Travis Jervey (knee, IR) is out for the year.
BALTIMORE: Brian Billick says QB Chris Redman (back) is out until at least week 13.
BUFFALO: RB Shawn Bryson (knee, IR) is out for the year.
CAROLINA: RB DeShaun Foster (knee, IR) is out for the year. KR Michael Bates (ankle, IR) is out for the year. PK John Kasay (sports hernia, IR) is out for the year.
CHICAGO: G Rex Tucker (ankle, IR) is out for the year. WR David Terrell (broken foot, IR) is out for the year. C Olin Kreutz (appendectomy) likely is out until week 12.
CINCINNATI: OT Richmond Webb (chest, IR) is out for the year. TE Sean Brewer (knee, IR) is out for the year.
DALLAS: WR Rocket Ismail (neck, IR) is out for the season. TE Jeff Robinson (knee, IR) is out for the year. OT Larry Allen (bone spurs in ankle) should return in week 11-12; the injury, however, is expected to plague him all year. OT Javiar Collins (knee) is likely out for the year.
DENVER: C Tom Nalen (knee, IR) is out for the year.
DETROIT: OT Kerlin Blaise (knee, IR) is out for the year. RB Lamont Warren (shoulder, IR) is out for the year. KR Desmond Howard (neck, IR) is out for the year.
GREEN BAY: RT Mark Tauscher (knee, IR) is out for the year.
HOUSTON: LT Tony Boselli (shoulder, IR) is out for the year. G Ryan Schau (foot) is out for the year. OT Ryan Young (groin) did not play in week 10 but should return this week.
INDIANAPOLIS: RB Dominic Rhodes (knee, IR) is out for the year. RB Shyrone Stith (knee, IR) is out for the year.
JACKSONVILLE: OT Maurice Williams (broken leg, IR) is out for the year. OT Zach Wiegert (knee, IR) is out for the year. WR Patrick Johnson (abdomen) should return in week 13-15.
KANSAS CITY: WR Sylvester Morris (knee, IR) is out for the year.
MIAMI: OT Brent Smith (knee, IR) is out for the year. WR-KR Albert Johnson (knee, IR) is out for the year. QB Jay Fiedler (fractured thumb) should return in week 14. WR Oronde Gadsden (wrist, IR) is out for the year. WR Cris Carter (kidney) is out indefinitely.
MINNESOTA: RB Doug Chapman (internal injuries, IR) is out for the year. WR Derrick Alexander (knee, IR) is be out for the year.
NEW ORLEANS: G Wally Williams (league suspension) is out until week 14.
N.Y. GIANTS: OT Jeff Hatch (back, IR) is out for the year. PK Owen Pochman (knee, IR) is out for the year. WR Ike Hilliard (shoulder, IR) is out for the year. WR Tim Carter (Achilles, IR) is out for the year. WR Ron Dixon (knee) is out until at least week 13. C Dusty Zeigler (knee, IR) is out for the year.
N.Y. JETS: OG Dave Szott (knee, PUP) hasn't been active all year.
OAKLAND: TE Jeremy Brigham (knee, IR) is out for the year. RB Terry Kirby (broken leg, IR) is out for the year.
PHILADELPHIA: RB Correll Buckhalter (knee, PUP list) will likely miss the entire season.
PITTSBURGH: RB Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala (torn pectoral muscle) will return in week 11-12.
ST. LOUIS: OT Grant Williams (leg/ankle, IR) is out for the season.
SAN DIEGO: C Cory Raymer (Achilles, IR) is out for the year. OT Vaughn Parker (triceps) is out until at least week 12.
SAN FRANCISCO: OT Dave Fiore (knee, IR) is out for the year. RB Terry Jackson (knee, IR) is out for the year. TE Eric Johnson (back) did not play in weeks 8-10 and likely is out until at least week 12.
SEATTLE: ROT Chris McIntosh (neck, IR) is out for the year. G Steve Hutchinson (broken leg, IR) is out for the year. QB Trent Dilfer (Achilles, IR) is out for the year.
TAMPA BAY: WR Marquise Walker (thumb, IR) is out for the year.
TENNESSEE: RB Robert Holcombe (hip) should return in week 11. FB Greg Comella (shoulder) should return in week 11.
WASHINGTON: OL Rod Jones (elbow, IR) is out for the year. TE Robert Royal (ankle, IR) is out for the year. PK Brett Conway (quad, IR) is out for the year.