Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Apr. 26 at 03:43 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I have a suggestion for the cheat sheets in '07. Can you group players with a line between them where you think there's a big gap to the next group of players? So if, for example, I’m drafting and there are three running backs in a row on the cheat sheet available, and I don't want one on a certain team, I can be safe to assume the other two are in the same “class.”
Rick Andrews [Waxhaw, N.C.]
A:
We get this suggestion from time to time. The trouble, however, is that everyone has a different idea of what the different “tiers” would mean. Some feel the players inside the tier would be very similar. Others feel the line means there’s a big drop to the next player. And those lines could be in different spots based on whether there are 8, 10, 12 or 14 teams in your league. In addition, on our end we’re working with three different scoring systems. So it quickly morphs into a big, ugly mess. I can, however, offer this: In addition to the cheat sheets that you see on paper or in pdf form, we also have those player rankings in an Excel file. In the Excel file, we list the exact stat projections for each player, so you can compare the expected output for each player (and you can get that number either on a per-game basis or a season total). By comparing those stat projections, you can see where the clusters and gaps between players occur.
Question 2:
I’m in an eight-team league. I currently have the following players on my roster: Larry Johnson, Joseph Addai, Chester Taylor, Cedric Benson, Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss and Maurice Jones-Drew. Which three players would you keep?
Jo T. [Orange, Va.]
A:
Johnson and Addai definitely would be the top 2. For the third, I’d wait to see how things play out in the preseason. You’re only playing two running backs, so Larry Fitzgerald could be that final keeper. In Arizona’s new offense, however, I’m not confident enough right now that he’s going to continue to see so many balls. And Randy Moss might wind up being that third keeper. He’s scheduled to receive a base salary of $9.75 million this year, and I just can’t believe the Raiders would even consider paying that kind of money to a moody malcontent who mailed it in for the majority of last season. If Moss lands with the right team – Green Bay, maybe – he will be one of your three keepers. If neither Fitzgerald nor Moss pans out, then you’ll have to fall back on whichever running back looks best in August, probably Jones-Drew or Benson.
Question 3:
I get to keep two of the following: Maroney, Benson, Thomas Jones, Chad Johnson, Brady, Burress, Roy Williams, Kevin Jones. I think I have to go with Maroney and Benson now that Dillon and Jones are gone. Jones in New York is interesting too. Am I missing anything important?
Chris Tuten [Indianapolis]
A:
No, that’s definitely the way to go. Unless you’ve got some scoring system that richly rewards wide receivers, making Williams or Johnson a possibility, those are the two players that everyone would opt to protect. Maroney and Benson both will play greatly expanded roles this year, so each has a chance to be a top-10 fantasy back. In drafts, I think you’ll see Maroney tend to go about No. 10, and Benson maybe five picks later – that’s just my early guess.
Question 4:
I play in a 10-team league, and our biggest problem is the mad rush on Tuesday morning to pick up free agents. We would like to go to a more civilized system, but we are having trouble defining it. What would you suggest? Last year's standings? Current standings? Total points? Thanks.
Scott Kopischke [Menomonee Falls, Wis.]
A:
Give each team a $100 payroll. By a noon deadline each Wednesday, teams can submit sealed bids for free agent players. The commissioner at that time compares the bids and allocates the players. (Teams also, of course, must release a player for each one they sign.) Then, from noon on Wednesday until the kickoff of the first game of the NFL week, free agent players (not including those who were just cut) are available on a first-come, first-served basis for the $1 minimum. If a team spends all of its $100 payroll (or you can make it a $1,000 payroll if you want to get fewer ties), it can no longer pick up free agents. Try that system; I think it will work for you.
Question 5:
I am in a keeper league where you can keep up to three players from last year’s roster. I have Addai and Chester Taylor (both fourth-round picks) and Benson (seventh rounder). I stand to lose my fourth, fifth and sixth rounders to keep these players. Do you think this is a good strategy? I was going to go QB and then WR for my early picks. Should I consider trading Taylor and keeping Vernon Davis (taken late in the draft)? Or should I stick with that three-headed monster at RB?
Eugene Hitt [West Palm Beach, Fla.]
A:
Sounds like you’re on the right track. With Dominic Rhodes gone, Addai’s workload should expand dramatically. The Colts might still pick up a veteran like Kevan Barlow to fill some of that change-of-pace role, but I would still definitely make Addai one of the first 15 players selected. He might wind up being a top-5 back; you have to protect him. Taylor and Benson both probably will be selected about 15 running backs into drafts as well. Taylor doesn’t have special talent, but he runs behind a very good offensive line in Minnesota. And Benson is the starter now in Chicago. So both of those players are worth much more than the cost of protecting them. I do, however, like the scenario of trading one of those backs (probably Taylor but maybe Benson) if you can fetch enough in return in a trade. Vernon Davis should be a much bigger part of the 49ers offense this year – he could be a breakout tight end – you’d get a draft pick back, plus you’d free up yourself to select a big-time running back in the first round. If you protect three running backs, it would be counterproductive if you had a high enough draft spot to select somebody like LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson or Shaun Alexander.
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