Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 17 at 12:01 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
In the most recent mailbag, when asked about how the format of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE would affect your top 24, you wrote: "In your league, my top 10 receivers would come in at 13, 17, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 26, 30 and 31. When you add that third starting wide receiver, those guys climb up to 10, 12, 13, 14, 17, 19, 21, 22, 23 and 24." ....So you are saying that in a 12 person league, 10 WRs deserve to be taken in the first two rounds?? Really? I would be thrilled if you would post a top 35 or 50 for people using a 3 WRr league.
Joe Cartan [San Francisco]
A:
Fantasy football is a game of supply and demand. In this case, you're increasing the demand for wide receivers by requiring teams to use three of them as starters. Suppose you're in an auction. If you use two starting wide receivers, the best receiver you'll be able to get (in a 12-team league) for the $1.00 minimum will be somebody about 33 players down - perhaps Bernard Berrian, D.J. Hackett or Mark Clayton. But if you go up to three starting receivers, all of those guys will cost more; in a three-receiver league, another 10ish receivers will fetch contracts of at least $2.00. In that type of league, probably the best minimum-salary receiver will be somebody like Brandon Jones, Michael Jenkins or Muhsin Muhammad - with teams required to start three, teams will tend to want to have four or five good prospects at that position.
Now run all the numbers so that your player values are accurate (that is, a pair of receivers worth $18 and $9 is exactly equal to a pair of receivers at $14 and $13). You'll see that increasing the value of those receivers down at the bottom of your draft board also tends to add about a dollar each to the elite receivers. And that causes many of them to climb a few spots on your overall draft board.
You mentioned that you'd be interested in seeing a top 50 for a three-receiver league, and how it would be different than a two-receiver setup. This is possible. Go to the website and click on the auction prices that are most appropriate for your league (we've got 120 different lists posted, so there should be one there that is pretty close). Those lists are accurate down to the penny (with Steve Smith, for example, listed at $19.32 rather than $19) so you can use those dollar values to see exactly how we feel the top 50 (or top 100) should shake out in your league with your scoring system.
Question 2:
I'm in an auction league with the following:
10 Teams, Yardage, 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, PK, DEF
How do I factor 2 QBs into the auction value chart that has 1 QB as the only different variable?
Robert Lindmeier [Oregon, Wis.]
A:
That has a huge impact. You're approximately doubling the demand for quarterbacks. In a 10-team league with one starting quarterback per team, you could probably get the No. 13 or 14 quarterback on your board for the $1.00 minimum. In a two-QB league, I think you'll see maybe 24 quarterbacks go for more than than minimum. So those afterthought guys becomes $5-7 players. That's a huge amount of money that gets re-allocated to new players, so the players at the top of the board - Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson - fall by about $5 each. That money has to come from somewhere, so it looks like most players take something like a 15-percent paycut to accommodate the extra starters.
In a 10-team league with one starting quarterback, I've got only four quarterbacks in my top 50 players overall. When you go to two starting quarterbacks, all four of those players move up into the top 14, and another eight quarterbacks also wind up in the top 50.
Question 3:
I am considering a trade and just want your opinion. I am in a 12-team keeper league. We keep one player and lose our 1st rounder if we keep someone. The draft order goes from worst to 1st for rounds 1 and 2 and then takes on the snake format. I won last year so I would have picks 12,24,25,48,49,etc. I have Shaun Alexander and am considering trading for LT from an owner who has the 5th pick,17th,32nd,etc. The only problem is I offered to swap the players and swap picks as follows: I would give him Alexander and swap picks in rounds 3,7,11, and 12. He thought about it but now he also wants to swap in round 5 and wants my 9th for his 10th. Sounds like he's just trying to get as much out of me as he can. It sure seems like a lot to give up even for LT, especially when I personally have Alexander's projected numbers at 1400-1500 yds and 15-17 TDs. What do you think? Should I hold off for my original deal or is that too much to give up also?
Troy Smith [Tickfaw, La.]
A:
I don't follow your logic. You liked the deal before (and there are so many draft picks and rules involved I can't really follow it). Now you're souring on the proposal because the guy wants you to trade down a few spots in the fifth round and give up a ninth-rounder for a 10th (where you may get the same player you would have drafted in the ninth anyway)? I don't get it. Tomlinson is a lot younger than Alexander and runs behind a much better offensive line, I know that much. He ain't going to come cheap.
Question 4:
I play in a 18 team keeper league that lets us keep 5 offensive players, 3 IDP, and 3 redshirt players each season. We start 1 QB, 5 RB/WR (max 3 RBs), 1 TE, 1 PK, 3 LBs, 2 DL, and 2 DBs. The league gives credit for kick return yards. Specifically, you get .125 points for each KR yard and just for scale, you get .375 points for receiving yards and .333 points for rushing yards. My offensive choices at this point for keepers are: Grossman, T. Green, Benson, Cadillac, Darrell Jackson, Crumpler, hester, and Chris Brown. You can't keep more than 2 players at any position but redshirts don't count against that total. My 3 redshirts (free keepers) are Cutler, Maroney, and Braylon Edwards. My dilemma is this, Hester lost his status as an IDP this year. So, do I keep Hester as a young WR with potential with the upside of the KR/PR points or do I cut him. My keepers at this point are: Grossman, Green, Benson, Cadillac, Jackson, Urlacher, Vilma, and Abraham...
Cole Houchens [Deer Park, Wash.]
A:
I thought we were talking football, but now I feel like I'm doing a math test back at Inglemoor High School. Hester is the league's most dangerous kick returner, but note that your league has severely discounted those yards - they count for only a third as much as receiving yards. Hester totaled 1128 yards on kickoffs and punts last year, but that works out to only 141 points in your scoring system - 1128 multiplied times .125. That's identical, in other words, to a receiver who finished with 376 receiving yards. No need, in other words, to even considering protecting him. (I think a lot of teams will avoid kicking to Hester this year anyway.)
Question 5:
Love the magazine as usual, although you didn't do a good job disguising your man-crush on Ron Dayne. Anyway, similar to a question in the last mailbag, what would be the positional breakdown of the top 50 players in the following 12-team league? Performance scoring, PPR for WR and TE only, start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE.
Ed Weiss [Parsippany, N.J.]
A:
For those of you who don't recognize the name Ed Weiss, he's been a regular in the mailbag for years. He also was the first reader to contribute in a mock auction in Fantasy Football Index . Did a solid job.
1 LaDainian Tomlinson, 2 Steven Jackson, 3 Reggie Bush, 4 Larry Johnson, 5 Brian Westbrook, 6 Peyton Manning, 7 Steve Smith, 8 Joseph Addai, 9 Frank Gore, 10 Torry Holt, 11 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, 12 Marvin Harrison, 13 Terrell Owens, 14 Chad Johnson, 15 Reggie Wayne, 16 Lee Evans, 17 Marques Colston, 18 Tom Brady, 19 Donald Driver, 20 Drew Brees, 21 Travis Henry, 22 Shaun Alexander, 23 Carson Palmer, 24 Larry Fitzgerald, 25 Maurice Jones-Drew, 26 Laurence Maroney, 27 Willie Parker, 28 Willis McGahee, 29 Anquan Boldin, 30 Andre Johnson, 31 Roy Williams, 32 Rudi Johnson, 33 Javon Walker, 34 Marc Bulger, 35 Tony Romo, 36 Deion Branch, 37 Plaxico Burress, 38 Randy Moss, 39 Edgerrin James, 40 Hines Ward, 41 Laveranues Coles, 42 Jon Kitna, 43 Antonio Gates, 44 Matt Hasselbeck, 45 Jerricho Cotchery, 46 Joey Galloway, 47 Reggie Brown, 48 Vince Young, 49 Cedric Benson, 50 Calvin Johnson
Question 6:
I am in a 10 team keeper league where we start 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR and TWO flex RB/WR. Scoring is 4 PT Pass TD and 6 PT Rush/Rec TD. 1 Pt = 10 Rush / Rec Yards = 20 Pass Yards. Having the option to start 3 RB's I think depth there is important. Pick 5 from Addai, Westbrook, B Jacobs, M Barber, J Lewis, S Smith, L Fitzgerald, J Walker
THanks.
Rick O'Shea [St. Louis, MI]
A:
Easy (at least in my opinion). Addai, Westbrook, Smith, Fitzgerald and Walker. Lewis isn't a consideration. Maybe Barber or Jacobs could win me over with a dynamite preseason, but they can't be considered ahead of any of those five right now.
Question 7:
Our league is in its 12th year and we have just converted to a partial keeper league. Beginning with this year, teams may keep three players from the previous year, with each player costing the team a draft slot. For example, one team took LaDanian in the first round last year, Carson Palmer in the fourth and Gore in the fifth. This year, by keeping those players the team forfeits their first, fourth and fifth round selections. We drew up the rules to allow those players to retain the same draft value in subsequent years. Some questions have come up about the long term implications - over the years, should Frank Gore always cost a fourth round pick, even if he is traded? Is this system really achieving the goal of creating more of a "long term franchise league"? What future surprise problems do you foresee, and how do other leagues handle this? I know you might recommend auctions as the purest way to determine and assign accurate market values, but I don't see our league ever approving that method.
Steve Peavler [Chicago]
A:
Maybe put a three-year limit on keepers, then they've got to go back in. Maybe have the round increase by one each year (that is, you can keep Palmer for a fourth-round pick this season, but it's a three next year and a two in his third year). Probably the most common system, based on the letters I receive, is that teams forfeit a draft pick for each player they protect. If this team protects Tomlinson, it loses its first-round pick. If it protects Tomlinson and Gore, it loses its first- and second-round picks. If it keeps Tomlinson, Gore and Palmer, it loses its first-, second- and third-rounders.
Question 8:
Hey Ian,
I've browsed a bit, but don't see any articles on the mad bombers which I've used to change my rankings due to the heavy influence of distance touchdowns in my league in past years. If you could include top 15 data for QB/RB/WR/TE I'd really appreciate it.
Thank you.
Dwayne Cox
Oak Lawn, IL
DWAYNE COX [OAK LAWN, IL]
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Question 5: Love the magazine as usual,...
Posted by Joe DeBellis | Jul. 26 at 04:21 PM
Ian, appreciate all of you help over the years-- little confused though here, how can Bush be #3 in a league where PPR is only for WR/TE? Even Westbrook seems like a stretch at 5 given this scoring no? Perhaps I don't understand the definition of "performance scoring".