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I try to carefully project realistic stats for each player. Then, using those numbers, it’s a logical process to put together a top 25. That’s the way I do it. Why the results are different than what other guys are doing, I don’t know. I don’t really know a lot about how the other fantasy analysts out there do their work or how much time they spend working on them. Some – maybe the vast majority – use a non-statistical approach. Maybe they just rank Roy Williams as the No. 15 wide receiver (or whatever) because they just ‘feel’ that’s where he should go. So ultimately, the averaged numbers from the field of experts might be closer to a mock draft, but that doesn’t mean those rankings are better than mine. I expect that the players that I’m much higher on – Anthony Gonzalez, Ray Rice, Derrick Ward, etc. – will perform well and my rankings will be better. As for why I’ve got quarterbacks higher, that comes from what the numbers dictate. And in this area, I’ve worked in some bias against quarterbacks (to account for people tending to select them later). The quarterback actually should be ranked a little higher. In a 12-team league using an auction, I’m guessing the best quarterback you could buy for the $1 minimum would be David Garrard (and I actually don’t think that will be the case in most leagues – I think Garrard is worth more than that). But with Garrard at $1, you can get about 81 additional fantasy points by instead buying Drew Brees or Tom Brady. Compare that to running back. If you assume that the best running back you can get for $1 is somebody like Willie Parker, Darren Sproles or Julius Jones, then the No. 7 running back on the board (Steve Slaton, Frank Gore, Chris Johnson) projects to finish only about 60 points above that guy. Why, then, do so many seem to agree that the wise strategy at the end of the first round is to select a lesser, second-tier type running back rather than one of those quarterbacks (who should give you an additional 20 fantasy points). I don’t get it. When I’m drafting in that range, the only issue I’d be kicking around is whether there are so many guys in the league that have the laser lock on running backs is whether there will be a pretty good quarterback who slides to the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th or 9th round. But those kind of hypotheticals are hard to work into an overall draft board. I’ve already, after all, downgraded all quarterbacks by making the assumption that guys like Garrard, Carson Palmer and Eli Manning really aren’t that valuable.

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That’s not something I’m particularly worried about. I think there’s a viable chance that Warner will get hurt, but there won’t necessarily be a big dropoff to Matt Leinart. He seems to be working harder this offseason, and he’s now been around for three years. If elevated into the starting lineup, Leinart might average only 10-20 passing yards per game less than Warner, and I’ve got him at 90 percent of Warner in terms of touchdown passes. The bigger concern there, I think, is that the Cardinals probably will run more often. They passed on way too may of their plays last year – a league-high 66 percent. No other team was higher than 62 percent. And now Arizona has drafted a banger running back (Beanie Wells) and lost offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Ken Whisenhunt is going to call the plays, and when he came to Arizona, it was with the mission to turn the Cardinals into more of a blue-collar, smashmouth team. A realistic expectation, I think, would be for Arizona to drop down to about 60 percent pass plays. When that happens, I think you’ll see fewer passing yards and fewer passing touchdowns.

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I think they’ll share time. Probably a 2-to-1 ratio in touches in favor of Addai at the start of the year. That will be adjusted based on how they play. If Addai is far better, maybe he’ll get close to 80 percent of the work. If Brown is better, it will quickly become a 50-50 deal. Addai has been around longer, so I imagine he’ll be better in pass protection and get more work on passing downs, particularly early in the season. Last year, Rhodes held a 45-25 edge over Addai in terms of receptions. I would guess it will be a similar type of ratio this season, only with Addai up around 40-45 and Brown down around 25. Of the two current backs, I think Brown will be more explosive. Even with fewer carries, I think Brown will have more runs of 20-plus yards than Addai.

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I don’t fully understand the question. Initially you say that keeping players would cost picks in rounds 1, 2 and 3. Then you say you might trade away a 4th- or 5th-round pick for a high-profile keeper. Is that in addition to the 3rd-round pick? If so, that appears to be too high of a price. Suppose that nobody in your league kept anybody. Where would those players be selected? Probably in the 2nd round. Would you use both your 3rd- and 4th-round picks to secure a 2nd-round player? I don’t think so. Maybe – maybe – you would be willing to part with a 3rd and a 5th, but that’s not a great deal either. Is anybody else in your league even considering dealing with this guy? If not, than ultimately the guy probably will trade away one of those guys for something like a 7th – it’s either that or get nothing for them. Also keep in mind that you might be able to obtain one of these players at a cheaper cost by simply protecting fewer players. Protecting only one or two players is something you’ll need to consider. That would possibly make you one of the few owners in your league with 2nd- and 3rd-round picks. That might help you land Knowshon Moreno, and it might help you grab one of these other players as well.

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I know that plenty of leagues use that rule. It works fine. You draft your players, as you would usually do, then next summer, just prior to your draft, you have to decide which guy (if any), you’re going to keep. If somebody want to keep Brady at the high cost of a first-round pick, he would have had to keep him on his fantasy roster the entire season. The only way around that would be to create a rule that players on the NFL’s injured reserve could also be placed on your league’s injured reserve. I think that would be a reasonable rule. This type of keeper league, I think, increases the value of young, up-and-coming players. I think you will see plenty of teams tending to elevate the value in the later of rounds of guys like Donald Brown, Rashard Mendenhall, Shonn Green, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, etc., figuring that while those guys might not make a big impact in 2009, they could shift into far more favorable roles in 2010. And in a keeper format, it’s better to keep a good player at the cost of a 12th-round pick than to protect a great player who costs a No. 1 or No. 2.

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There were eight original AFL teams, then Cincinnati and Miami joined up before the league merged with the NFL in 1970. The original AFL logo featured six stars, but I think that was just because it looked good visually (just as the NFL logo didn’t have a meaningful number of stars until moving down in its most recent re-design to eight – one for each division). If you want to see some cool old AFL artwork, go to billsportsmaps.com. As for your keepers, I think the top possibilities are the Patriots quarterbacks, Michael Turner and Andre Johnson.

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All running backs that can catch the ball, if they can stay in the lineup for 16 games, are capable of big numbers. That’s why I see Ray Rice as such an intriguing possibility. As for receivers who might potentially catch 100 passes, my list would include Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Smith and Reggie Wayne.

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Looking over week 17, only a pair games come to mind. Chicago is at Detroit. The Lions should be pretty bad again this year, and the Bears might need to win that game to get into the playoffs. If you had to pick one running back today for that week, Matt Forte would be the guy. (If this causes Forte to actually move up a spot on your draft board is hard to say; you need to win in week 16 to be able to play in week 17, and the Bears that week are playing the Vikings, who tend to be about the best in the league against the run). I also wouldn’t mind having Knowshon Moreno that week; he should have a good feel for the offense by that time, and the Broncos are at home against Kansas City. Teams most likely to be in the position where they are resting players, I think, would be the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers.

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