Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 04 at 03:24 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I've got the first pick in a yardage-plus-TD format and consistent with your advice am considering a trade down. What consideration is appropriate for giving up the first pick? Is there a lower draft position in the first round I should target in a trade for this pick?
David Barenborg [MERCER ISLAND, WA]
A:
I don’t think you need any draft pick in particular. They’ll all do just fine. In the last mailbag, I looked at draft positions and concluded that there was very little difference between all of the spots after No. 1. What you need to do is get busy on the phone. In my leagues, one of my pet peeves is guys who say, “I’ve got the first pick, but I’m open to trading down; I’ll listen to all offers.” If you’re interested in making a deal, then man up and make the offer. In your case, you could offer the No. 1 pick plus your last pick for a first-rounder and a fourth-round selection. Make that offer to every other owner in your league, and somebody will bite. That’s a fair deal. If you want to work a little harder at it, you could first offer that pick to everyone for first- and third-round choices. Maybe you’ll find somebody to take that deal – all it takes is one guy who really wants Adrian Peterson – and then your draft is off to a really good start.
Question 2:
Ian -- big fan of your column for years, and looking for your insight on league keeper values. Our 12-team league is a performance league that gives 6 pts per TD (pass/rush/rec), 3 point bonuses for 100-yd rushing/receiving games, and bonuses for long TD runs/recs (2 pts for 40+, and another 1 pt if over 50 yds). We also penalize fumbles in a big way: -3 per fumble. We are allowed to keep up to two keepers, which would replace your picks in Rounds 1-2. I am picking in the 10th slot, and have Steven Jackson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Larry Fitzgerald (along with DeAngelo Williams). I am nearly positive I will keep Jackson with my first keeper, but the second one seems a tossup between Tomlinson and Fitzgerald. Would you go Jackson/Tomlinson for the 1-2 RB punch and hope that Tomlinson can stay healthy and keep Sproles at arm's length, or would you opt for Jackson/Fitzgerald, and roll the dice on whatever RBs are left in round 3?
Brian Aust [Round Rock, TX]
A:
I wouldn’t even consider Tomlinson – he’s not even on the radar screen. I’m hearing talk about how he’s in top form and ready for a bounce-back season, but I just don’t see how that’s possible. He’s 30 now, and he’s taken a lot of punishment over the years. Even before and after his injury issues last year, he just didn’t look like the same back to me. The extra gear wasn’t there, and he wasn’t breaking tackles like he did in the past. The Chargers looked a lot better every time they put Darren Sproles on the field. I imagine they’ll have to give Sproles at least 20 percent of the workload there, and I think he’ll be a lot more effective than Tomlinson again. To me, your headache is how to deal with DeAngelo Williams, who looked a lot like Barry Sanders at the end of last season. Hard to let him go. But Williams doesn’t catch many passes (at least he didn’t last year; he was an OK receiver in the past). I would therefore designate Jackson and Fitzgerald as the two keepers.
Question 3:
I am in a PPR league and need to decide between Matt Forte, Andre Johnson or Steve Slaton. I hate to use my first pick on a WR, but what are your thoughts?
Brian Thune [COSTA MESA, CA]
A:
How many wide receivers are starters? If you’re starting two, then I believe those three players are virtually interchangeable – Johnson comes in just a shade ahead of Forte and Slaton. But if you start three wide receivers, then it’s Johnson easily, because of the increase demand for the position. I was put in that exact position earlier in the week in the Fanex draft (where they start not only three wide receivers but also have a “flex” position, which can be either a running back or a wide receiver). In that Fanex-type of format, it simply doesn’t make sense to select running backs in the first round. Since so many guys in that league like to bang their head against the must-get-running-back philosophy, I traded down, picked up some extra choices, then picked wide receivers with both of my second-round choices (two wide receivers that I felt should have gone in the first round).
Question 4:
In the fourth year of a 5-year, 3-man keeper. 12 team PPR, 6 all TDs. I have Peterson, S.Jackson, DeAngelo Williams and Fitzgerald to choose from. I'm leaning toward Peterson, Jackson and Fitzgerald, because only 2 RB start spots. Should I be looking at DeAngelo over Jackson, or keeping 3 RBs? Also, would you make this trade – keep the three RBs, then trade DeAngelo + a 4th and 5th in the redraft for A.Johnson + a 2nd and 3rd?
Kevin Northup [Marysville, MI]
A:
PPR format. You’ve got to account for the considerable value of players who catch 90-plus passes. They are golden in that format. I have seen this first-hand in the Fanex leagues the last two years. I have won three of those four leagues (two each year), and the one team that didn’t win was also a crusher – the top seed in the playoffs. All four of those teams were built around productive receiving corps. I would love, therefore, to trade DeAngelo Williams for Andre Johnson. Johnson will be more valuable, and you’re also getting to enhance two of your draft picks with that deal. I would also keep Fitzgerald. That puts you in the difficult spot of weighing Peterson and Jackson. Peterson is the bigger name, but Jackson will catch a lot more passes. If Jackson stays healthy, he will outperform Peterson.
Question 5:
Dynasty question. I currently own Peyton Manning in the last year of his contract at $34. I have been offered Tom Brady until 2012 at $22 or Aaron Rodgers until 2012 at $7. In order to get one of these other QBs I would have to give up Frank Gore. My other RBs are Maurice Jones-Drew, Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown and Tim Hightower. Is it worth me trading Gore for one of these other QBs and cutting Manning and gaining that salary cap?
Gary Wool [PHILADELPHIA, PA]
A:
At those prices, I would much rather have Brady or Rodgers. With Brady, you save $12 and get some extra years. With Rodgers, you pick up $27 to work with, but I don’t think you can assume he’ll crank out 16-game seasons – he takes a lot of punishment, and he hasn’t been very durable as a pro. What you lose in this deal is running back depth. Right now, you have a nice three-back rotation – Jones-Drew, Jacobs and Gore. But with running backs, you can’t really assume any of those guys are going to stay healthy all year. So there’s something to be said for hanging onto three starter-caliber running backs. If it were me, I’d be looking to see if there was interest in Ronnie Brown; a lot of folks like him, but I don’t. That would be my first line of attack. If it came down to either taking or leaving the Gore deal, I would probably choose Brady and figure the extra $12 would help me replace Gore.
Question 6:
Any chance for an iTouch/iPhone app? I know I'd be up for one --especially if I could update a custom spreadsheet and store it on my iPod.
Eric Schmit [KEIZER, OR]
A:
Those iTouch applications are great. I've got a half-dozen of them. But I don't see us trying to put together an Index application anytime soon. If you've got wireless access, you can tap into the custom rankings through the website. You can do this on your iPhone.
Readers' Comments
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Question 1: I've got the first pick...
Posted by Todd Weigel | Aug. 04 at 08:04 AM
Instead of trading the #1 pick to a guy who wants Peterson, you could just draft AP. His first five games are ridiculous (@Cle, @Det, SF, GB, @StL) and he should put up monster numbers. Then you offer to trade him before Week 6, when he plays Balt, then @Pitt. You may get incredible offers involving underperforming studs. Great potential buy low/sell high opportunity.
Question 2: Ian -- big fan of...
Posted by MICHAEL LONG | Aug. 05 at 02:36 AM
Ian, I've read several times that you're concerned with L.T. I'm not writing to defend him but with regard to your statements that he didn't look like the same back last year even before he got hurt, didn't he get hurt in the first quarter of the second game? Since he doesn't play in the preseason, how much of a sample of work was there to know how he looked before hurting his toe.
Question 2: Ian -- big fan of...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 05 at 02:53 AM
With Tomlinson, I'm talking mostly about the season opener against Carolina. His numbers were OK in that game -- 97 yards on 21 carries -- but he just didn't look like quite the same guy he's been in the past. Then, late in the year (weeks after he said his toe was no longer a factor at all), Tomlinson was held to 24 yards on 14 carries by Atlanta and 39 yards on 15 carries at Kansas City. Those are two teams with poor run defenses.
Question 2: Ian -- big fan of...
Posted by Andy Jury | Aug. 05 at 06:01 AM
Related to your comment on Tomlinson not looking like himself last year, for most of the season I would agree. I was at the last game of the year (Denver), and it seemed like the one game where he was finally healthy. I thought he looked like he had his speed and cutting ability back. He looked like the old LT... until he hurt his groin and Sproles took over. If LT gets back to how he looked in that game, he might surprise you.
Question 2: Ian -- big fan of...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 05 at 08:10 AM
I will concede that it's at least possible there could be a bounce-back season. I don't consider 30 to be the expiration date for running backs. That's one of my pet peeves -- how people throw around that 30 number, simply because it's a nice round number. I think it's more accurate to say 31 tends to be the wall for running backs. But even if Tomlinson plays a little better this year and can stay healthy, they've still got Sproles there, who should eat into LT's touches. Tomlinson has never had that kind of back behind him before (Turner was good, but the Chargers didn't use him).