Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 11 at 05:23 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I’ve got a Greg Knapp question: A while back you referred to Greg as a run-heavy coordinator. This was certainly true in Atlanta, but I'm thinking it was his only option since Vick was inept at distributing the ball. I think Knapp was in San Francisco, where they did run a lot, but Jeff Garcia had some really productive years there too. Given that Julius Jones isn't very good and the line is not as strong as it used to be, I'm thinking he may go with the strengths of Seattle's offense and call more pass plays than he usually does, resulting in a pretty good year for Hasselbeck. Your thoughts? I know you think Hasselbeck is old, but he still is a top-10 NFL QB and has good WRs.
JEFF FOSTER [CHICO, CA]
A:
I don’t think Hasselbeck is a top-10 quarterback. If I were building an NFL franchise for the 2009 season – disregarding 2010 and beyond – he wouldn’t be one of the first 10 quarterbacks I would select. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Kurt Warner. Those are all guys I would rank ahead of him. I would put Hasselbeck in that middle tier, with Chad Pennington, David Garrard, Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, Eli Manning and Marc Bulger.
As for Knapp, he’s been in the league running offenses for the last eight years – three in San Francisco, followed by three in Atlanta and two in Oakland. His offenses with the 49ers were pretty good and pretty balanced. In his three years there, his offenses finished 2nd, 6th and 5th in rushing, and 14th, 14th and 10th in passing. So more rushing than passing, even though he had Garcia and Terrell Owens at his disposal. I can remember Owens exploding on him on the sidelines of a game at Minnesota, where the 49ers were getting blown out and Owens didn’t feel he was getting the ball enough. In Atlanta, Knapp’s offenses finished 1st in rushing all three years. If you want to disregard quarterback rushing, then the Falcons were 12th, 11th and 8th in those seasons, mostly with Warrick Dunn at tailback. As you point out, Atlanta was horrible in passing with Vick at quarterback: 30th, 27th and 32nd. And in the last two years, Knapp was in Oakland (at least until he got fired halfway through last season). The Raiders finished 6th and 10th in rushing the last two years, but last and next-to-last in passing. I will concede that Knapp hasn’t had the opportunity to work with a quarterback of Hasselbeck’s caliber over the last five years, but to me, he looks like a coach who’ll tend to go with the run more than the pass. And that’s what I’m hearing out of the Seahawks camp – that they want to run more this season. While having a lesser line and backs last year, Seattle still managed to somehow rank 19th in rushing, up at 111 yards per game. So maybe Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett will surprise us.
Question 2:
You write in the magazine to look for Randy Moss to score more short range TDs this year yet in the “DISTANCE” cheat sheet in the magazine you have Moss ranked first. Can you explain?
CRAIG BOLGER [PENNSYLVANIA]
A:
When I’m ranking Moss No. 1 in the Distance Scoring system, I’m not suggesting that his touchdowns will tend to average the most yards. If you want to emphasize the AVERAGE distance of touchdowns, your top receivers would include Joey Galloway, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Lee Evans, Vincent Jackson, Robert Meachem and Bernard Berrian. Probably the No. 1 receiver overall would be Devery Henderson. Moss still has the speed to score a few touchdowns from long range, but I expect his average length of touchdown to be only average. It’s his timing and rapport with Tom Brady inside the red zone that makes him so dangerous. In the 2007 season, after hitting on a couple of bombs early, 13 of the final 18 TDs that Moss caught came from inside the red zone. Nevertheless, I expect Moss to catch more touchdowns than anyone this year; that’s enough that he still projects to be the No. 1 wide receiver in a league giving extra credit for longer touchdowns.
Question 3:
Our league is very unusual. We are a PPR & PPC (Points Per Completions) league. I'm the No. 2 position out of 12, and plan to take Matt Forte. My 2nd or 3rd round pick will be targeted towards a QB. Assuming Brady, Brees, and Manning will be gone, who do you think I should select between Rodgers and Rivers? Or, should I wait on a QB like Matt Ryan until the 4th or 5th round?
Mike McMillion [Ellicott City, MD]
A:
I’ve had a couple of guys ask this week about points for completions and points for carries. This is not currently supported by the CUSTOM CHEAT SHEET interfacing, but you can backdoor those stats in. Carries are tied to rushing yards. Looking just as running backs who ran for at least 500 yards last year, those guys collectively averaged 4.3 yards per carry last year. That translates into about 2.3 carries per 10 yards. So in the SCORING PROFILE section of the website, you can just change “1 point for every 10 yards” to “3.3 points for every 10 yards”, and you’re rankings will be plenty accurate. I’m aware that guys like Adrian Peterson and DeAngelo Williams are more likely to be up around 5 yards per carry, while a back like Jamal Lewis is more apt to be down around 3.7, but it will be plenty accurate enough for what you’re doing. And it’s even more accurate for quarterbacks. The vast majority of teams finished pretty close to 11.4 yards per pass completion last year. So you can go into the Custom Rankings deal and change “1 point for every 20 passing yards” to “2.7 points for every 20 passing yards”. When you do this, the top 3 players – by far – project to be Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. I would be hoping to land Brees with that No. 2 overall choice.
Question 4:
This is our league’s 15th year. I have 15 copies of the index in my bookcase. I have 4 titles. Please help me win No. 5. We have a 8-team league and start 3 RB and 3 WR. I pick 6 and 11. I think I can get Jackson or Gore 6th. I am trying to talk myself into taking P.Thomas 11th. I think he will be a top-10 back, top 3 if Bush is hurt. Since Deuce is gone, shouldn't Thomas pick up his touches? If you add their stats from last year That would give Thomas 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns. Where is the flaw in my thinking?
Jim Valla [FARMINGTON, IL]
A:
I like Pierre Thomas. He helped me win two championships last year. I bought him for the $1 minimum in the Mock Auction in the magazine, and I drafted him in the last round of the Fanex “FAD” competition. Over the last two years, he’s started 6 games. In those games, he’s averaged 82 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards, with 9 TDs in those six games. Those are the better per-game numbers than any back in the league. Give the guy some credit; he was good enough to start ahead of Rashard Mendenhall at Illinois. And with McAllister now gone, I believe Thomas will be a good player this year. At the same time, however, there’s no reason to select him with the 6th or 11th pick of a draft. In the Mock Draft in the magazine, Thomas went 27th overall. In the three experts drafts being held by Fanex, Thomas went 32nd, 35th and 55th. I have no problem with you targeting him, but there’s something like a 97 percent chance he’ll be available for you in the third round.
Question 5:
In a dynasty league, I have the 3rd overall pick. Rookie RBs are the first to go in this league and I am almost positive that Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells will be gone by the time I pick. Which rookie RB has the better future in your opinion, Donald Brown or Shonn Greene? And why? I am sure the guys in my league will give me crap if they see this question, but who cares?
BILL GALLAGHER [LANCASTER, NY]
A:
Greene will score more touchdowns. Definitely this year. He’ll be the goal-line back for the Jets. But he is a notoriously poor pass catcher. He’s one of those guys who might never have a season with 25 receptions – might finish down in the single digits in a lot of his pro seasons. Brown has more big-play speed and should have plenty of seasons with 40-plus catches. He also might quickly move past Joseph Addai and become the Colts’ main running back. If I were in a TD-only league, therefore, I’d go with Greene. In vast majority of scoring formats, I would opt for Brown.
Question 6:
When I enter in my scoring system and then go to customized cheat sheet it shows each category separately. Where do you get the overall rankings with the scoring built in?
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
To fully tap into the potential of the Custom Cheat Sheet, you have to answer some setup questions in two different areas. Click on “CUSTOM CHEAT SHEET” near the top of the page. Once in that area, you need to complete the setup questions in both the “SCORING PROFILE” area and in the “AUCTION PROFILE” area. If you run into any uncertainty on some of those Auction questions (many users don’t play in the Auction format, so they’re not as comfortable in that area), then click here. It’s the AUCTION PROFILE that gives the computer the info it needs to build an accurate overall list for you. Once you finish the setup questions, click on “VIEW PRODUCTS” to see your rankings.
Question 7:
I’m in a 12-team PPR league similar in structure to what your PPR rankings are based on with the exception that our "points per reception" = 0.5pts for RB, 1.0 pts for WR and 1.5pts for TE. How (if at all) would this twist affect your player rankings and draft strategy? I won my league last year with your help and am hoping to repeat.
James Moskie [NEW YORK, NY]
A:
That’s one of the minor flaws with the “CUSTOM CHEAT SHEET” Rankings available at the website. You are not allowed to define different scoring systems for different positions. You can’t make catches worth 1 point for one kind of player and a different value for another position. No bother. I plugged the numbers in and am seeing only minor changes. The receiver and tight end rankings are essentially unchanged. At running back, with the half credit for catches, the rankings are essentially an average of the PPR system and the standard yards-TD rankings that you see in the updates. In the overall top 40, all of the players moving down by 4-plus spots are pass-catching running backs: Jones-Drew (4th to 11th), S.Jackson (8 to 15), Westbrook (17 to 21), C.Johnson (21 to 27), Tomlinson (24 to 30), Moreno (26 to 35), Barber (25 to 36) and Portis (35 to 39). The big movers up are the tight ends: Clark (38th to 24th), Gonzalez (41 to 25), Witten (45 to 28).
Question 8:
I'm in a PPR, 6 pts for all TDs plus usual yards. We start 2 RB and 3 WR. I'm drafting 8 out of 12. I'm targeting Fitzgerald in the first. My question is whether in Rd 2 I should target a lesser RB or go with a another stud WR. Just seems to make more sense to gobble up as many stud WR early cause I can land a guy like Derrick Ward or Pierre Thomas who are really good anyway.
John DiLeonardo [Langhorne, PA]
A:
With three starting wide receivers, I think it makes sense to value that position more highly than running back. Maybe draft three receivers before any running backs if it falls that way. At 6 points for all touchdowns, though, I believe the top 3 quarterbacks are all worth more than any wide receiver or running back. I’d be looking to take a quarterback with that No. 8 pick overall. Only possible exception would be if I knew I could get one of those top 3 quarterbacks in the second round.
Question 9:
One of the leagues I’m in is a keeper league, so I was wondering if you could add an updated keeper league cheat sheet update to your site. At least one update in august would be most helpful for those of us in keeper leagues. I would like to see an updated version from that which is listed in your magazine because players values can change somewhat from when that list was put together.
JEFF PALMER [KENOSHA, WI]
A:
We will address younger players and down-the-road prospects in the August updates. It is problematic, however, to get into publishing an actual board. Leagues use various scoring systems – TD-only, yards & TD, PPR, etc. – and then they have wildly different rules in regards to keeping players. Some leagues keep everybody. Many leagues allow you to keep only 1-3 players. Some leagues allow you to keep players for only three years. And all of these different dynamics are tied together, creating exponential issues in trying to put together a meaningful overall board. We’ve got the Custom Rankings deal, of course, but it doesn’t account for players ages, or have any mechanism for weighing 2009 projections against 2013 projections. Some time in the future, we may attempt to bring the keeper angle into the overall database, but I don’t envision it happening anytime soon.
Question 10:
I'm in a 10-team, PPR league, and I'm picking 10th. Our scoring is pretty close to the scoring on your PPR league cheat sheet, but I was wondering how much having only 10 teams affects drafting priorities? I'm thinking that I'll snag two of the top receivers with my first two picks, unless a one of the top PPR running backs, like Steven Jackson falls to me. I'm wondering if you think that's a good idea, and if so, what you'd advise thereafter? I was thinking about grabbing an RB with a QB like Aaron Rodgers at the next bend, and then another RB with a top-tier TE like Dallas Clark at the one after that. I'm pretty sure I can safely wait until my 7th and 8th round picks and grab Ray Rice as my 3rd RB and Coles as my third WR.
L.B. Graham [WILDWOOD, MO]
A:
That looks like a decent rough draft. Do you start three receivers in this league? If so, I would be open to perhaps grabbing a third wide receiver at choice 3.10 or 4.01.
Question 11:
In a keeper league, I can keep two players. Which two would you keep: Brees (give up my 3rd round pick) Forte (4th) Slaton (8th) Pierre Thomas (15th)
TOM HICKS [DURHAM, NC]
A:
I’d go with the best “values” – Slaton and Thomas. This would allow you to keep those third- and fourth-round draft picks.
Question 12:
I want to do a practice draft or two in Yahoo! leagues. I get the update from you each week and am wondering which of the cheat sheets should I use or should I do the custom one?
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
Custom scoring usually works best. It allows you to exactly match the scoring system of your league. We project thousands of numbers for these players. With the custom rankings feature, it exactly weighs each of those numbers to make them fit into your league’s scoring system.
Question 13:
12-player League, standard scoring (no PPR). I can keep two players from my team last year and give up my first- and second-round picks. Which two would you keep out of the following: T.Brady, S.Jackson, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, Larry Fitzgerald?
Jackson Longan [OKLAHOMA CITY, OK]
A:
I’d go with Brady and Fitzgerald. They’re both top 6 players on my overall board. Nice nucleus to build around.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 1: I’ve got a Greg Knapp...
Posted by JEFF FOSTER | Aug. 11 at 01:36 PM
Garrard, Shaub and Cassell better qb's than Hasselbeck??? What are you smoking??..Garrard had one good year where he hardly passed against defenses that were geared to stop thier power running game, shuab is more injury prone than Hassellbeck and can be inconsistent, plus has A-john to throw to..Cassell had a decent year, but has the leagues best coaching and gets to throw to Moss and Welker..Hassellbeck is very accurate, consistent, and doesn't make dumb mistakes..Put Hassellbeck in any of those offenses and they would certainly improve....especially Jacksonville. Shaub is close, but he needs one more solid year to convince me.
Question 1: I’ve got a Greg Knapp...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 11 at 01:46 PM
I didn't say Garrard, Schaub or Cassel was BETTER than Hasselbeck. I said I would put all four of those quarterbacks in the same tier. I listed the dozen guys I said we're better than him. To all of your guys (most notably David Garrick and Robert Driscoll), as I get busier in August, I'm looking to see the questions submitted to the mailbag. I prefer to answer them there, rather than in a chatroom-type atmosphere that you get in the comments section.
Question 6: When I enter in my...
Posted by CHARLES SAVONI | Aug. 12 at 05:22 AM
Ian. Please clarify. I do NOT do Auction leagues. But, if I am reading you right, I need to input answers in that second area, even when I am NOT doing an auction league. Do I have that right?
Question 6: When I enter in my...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Aug. 12 at 09:20 AM
Yes. To get an accurate overall list, use the AUCTION PROFILE area (even if you're not in an auction-based league).
Question 7: I’m in a 12-team PPR...
Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Aug. 11 at 10:28 PM
No way you're getting Brees, McBillion...
Question 8: I'm in a PPR, 6...
Posted by CHARLES SAVONI | Aug. 12 at 05:26 AM
Wow, Ian. You have blown me away. I did just that, last year, when I picked Brady with the 3rd overall pick. I am tempted to go that route again, even given what happened last year. So, in a nutshell, you are saying that League's that score 6 points for the QB when he throws a TD pass, really ups the ante in terms of import for grabbing a top QB early. Right?
Question 9: One of the leagues I’m...
Posted by DAVID GARRICK | Aug. 11 at 06:13 AM
This response makes no sense to me. If the wide variance in keeper and dynasty league rules doesn't prevent you from making a keeper league cheat sheet in May, then why would it prevent you from making a keeper league cheat sheet in late August.
Question 9: One of the leagues I’m...
Posted by Don Parsons | Aug. 11 at 12:01 PM
David - what I understood is he's going to be doing more keeper info in the rest of August. He was going over the difficulty keepers leagues have due to increased variance in rules and why it isn't incorporated into the site or done more regularly. Also doing it in May would be somewhat easier because in May you have downtime and less up to the minute updates whereas in August there's news everywhere that needs to be digested and inputted into the projections.
Question 12: I want to do a...
Posted by Robert Driscoll | Aug. 11 at 06:35 AM
I need to do a customized scoring profile for three leagues but I do not want to have to keep changing data for each. Is this possible?