Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 18 at 05:34 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I get the stat updates every week. What is up with Forte's draft stock. It is going down the tubes. He had no QB last year and he was great. Now he's got Jay Cutler and he is plummeting. Is there an injury?
John DiLeonardo [Langhorne, PA]
A:
You can blame one of your co-readers. A few months back, somebody wrote in and suggested that wouldn’t it be possible that Forte would catch fewer passes with Cutler at quarterback, because Cutler tends to send more passes downfield? I started looking into that, and I think he’s right. The Broncos last season completed only 11 percent of their passes to running backs, by far the fewest in the league. Every other team was up over 16 percent (the Bears were at over 27 percent, completing 40 more passes to running backs than the Broncos). The numbers were similar the previous year. Some of this, I suppose, can be attributed to scheme and personnel, but I think it’s also tied to Cutler’s personality and playing style. Put Cutler under pressure, I think, and his instinct isn’t to quickly get the ball out of his hands to a running back – he instead tries to go for a bigger play downfield. In the preseason opener, for example, only one of Cutler’s 10 pass attempts went to a running back. So while Cutler is a better, more talented quarterback than Kyle Orton, I think Forte is probably going to catch about 20 fewer passes this year. That’s a big chunk of production, particularly in a PPR format. In addition, Forte should play less this year. He was a workhorse back last season – out there for almost every player. Now Kevin Jones is healthy, and the Bears want to work him in for 5-10 touches per game. I still like Forte very much a player; I just don’t think his numbers will be as good this season.
Question 2:
I saw Mike Goodson for Carolina in the first preseason game. I don't get caught up in preseason stuff much, but the kid looks like he can at least play at this level. The Panthers don't have anything else decent behind Jonathan Stewart that I'm aware of, so is this kid worth some pub as a flyer? If J-Stew can't stay healthy, there are a lot of leftover carries available in that backfield.
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
They drafted him in the fourth round, so the tendency is to underestimate him. Some will dismiss him as a probable nobody who’s just having a good training camp – that he’ll be out of the league in a year. If a first-round running back like Rashard Mendenhall or Beanie Wells, however, does the exact same thing, people tend to say, “Aha!” and take the production as confirmation that the player is going to develop into a big star. The reality is that there are plenty of very good running backs in the league right now who weren’t drafted in the first, second, or third rounds. Michael Turner, Marion Barber, Ryan Grant, Chester Taylor, Pierre Thomas, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, Leon Washington, Willie Parker, Dominic Rhodes, Earnest Graham. I think there’s a good chance Goodson will be one of those kind of guys. And with that in mind, I wouldn’t care (if I were in a dynasty league) that he was stuck behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. I would just draft him.
Question 3:
I need help in ranking the defenses. The football league I'm in awards points for yards allowed as well as points scored. The defensive scoring system is as follows: 0-49 Yds = 12 pts, 50-99 Yds = 10 pts, etc. (300+ Yds = 0 pts). 0-6 Points Allowed = 8 pts, 7-13 pts = 6 pts, etc. Sacks = 1 Pt. Int, fumbles and safeties = 2 pts. TDs = 6 Pts. Your team defense starts off with 20 pts which is huge! My question is: Is there anyway to rank the defenses based on yards and pts allowed by this scoring system? Also, with this much emphasis on team defense what round would you draft them in?
Jason Guzik [HILTON, NY]
A:
I wouldn’t worry too much about yards. The way your league is scoring it, there’s not going to be much production there. It’s just too hard to hold a team under 200 total yards. The Steelers had one of the all-time great defenses last year, for example, and they didn’t hold any team under 210 yards until beating a historically bad Cleveland offense in week 17. With the top-10 defenses, you’ll be looking for them to pick up points in chunks of 2 and 4 by holding opponents under 300 yards. But to have any chance of holding an offense under 200, you need both a really good defense and an offense with a lot of problems. You’ll run into some of the same kinds of problems with scoring. Tough to hold a team under 10 points. Steelers, great as they were last year, held only four teams under 10 points. Ravens held three teams under 10. The Vikings, one of the really good NFC defenses, didn’t hold anyone under 10. All of these categories – points, yards, sacks, interceptions, etc. – are carefully tracked and forecasted by Andy Richardson, who does most of the heavy lifting around here on defenses. I look over those numbers and make suggestions if I think a projection is too high or too low. When you buy one of our August newsletters, you get access to all of those itemized stats, either via the CUSTOM CHEAT SHEET feature on the web, or by going to the VIEW PRODUCTS section of the “Store” and downloading the STAT PROJECTIONS FILE (in Microsoft Excel). According to our numbers, the best defenses in that format would be the Steelers, Ravens, Vikings and Giants.
Question 4:
Quote from 8-14-09 Mailbag: “And I think Cedric Benson will outperform Stewart, Ward, Lewis and Jones – he’s better than those guys.” You have Derrick Ward as No. 12 RB in the mag versus No. 18 for Benson, and your projections from my last download have him getting 18 more receptions, 30 more rush yards, equal TDs compared to Benson. Am I missing something? Do you think Ward's value has decreased because of Coach Morris' comments about a RBBC approach? In PPR it would seem Ward is better because as you note, TB has thrown a lot of balls to the backs in recent years. Should I move Ward down my board a bit?
Jered Ottenwess [NEWBERRY, FL]
A:
I moved Ward down a big chunk on my board. I don’t think Morris is just offering up CoachSpeak blather when he talks about Ward and Earnest Graham. I think it’s for real. In Tampa Bay’s first exhibition game, Graham got all the work with the first-team offense on the opening two possessions. I think Ward and Graham will share time. I think Ward will run for more yards, and I think he’ll have a lot more receiving yards. But Graham is a hard-nosed inside runner; he might score more touchdowns.
Question 5:
I'm in a 10-team PPR Auction Draft League with a 16 man roster (starting 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1 TE, 1K, 1DEF). My plan is to target high-reception value RBs and WRs (Steve Smith, Wes Welker, Matt Forte, Brian Westbrook) and go after a second-tier QB (like Philip Rivers or Aaron Rogers), which will leave me pretty lean on my bench. My question is, am I better off sticking with that plan, or instead targeting Brees, Manning, or Brady (for considerably more $$$) as a QB and downgrading at either at WR or RB?
Craig Sobel [York, PA]
A:
At the auction, keep in mind that there’s considerable value in NOT having a quarterback. Once you buy a quarterback, you lose the ability to control the remaining players at that position. If, for example, you decide that Drew Brees is worth $30, you probably don’t want to buy him early for $25. That’s a very good deal (and you might later wind up regret passing on it). But once you buy Brees for $25, you’re pretty much powerless to do anything when later in the auction Peyton Manning goes for $15 or Philip Rivers goes for only $9.
Question 6:
I just got done looking over the Aug 17th update and noticed that Beanie Wells took a 12 spot tumble from the time that the mag was published. I was wondering what caused the drop? Was it due to injury concern, change in projected number of snaps, change in your estimation of Arizona’s offensive philosophy, or like most things in life, a combination of these factors? As a keeper league player, these rookie RBs are the most prized players in the league and this 12 point drop caught my eye. I had him closer to Moreno but now am wondering if he's closer to Donald Brown.
nathan ouellette [SOMERSET, MA]
A:
I think Tim Hightower is going to play ahead of Wells this year. I think that they’ll share time, but that Hightower will finish with more rushing yards and more touchdowns. I’m sure Hightower will catch more passes. In a keeper league, I would definitely select Donald Brown before Wells.
Question 7:
My annual quarterback question. I never draft QBs early, and usually have pretty good luck (and get good FFI advice) hitting on a sleeper. Who's the guy I can take in the 5th round this year who has the best chance of getting among the leaders? I'll complicate things by saying we use "Team Quarterback".
Gregory Wells [SHORELINE, WA]
A:
In terms of team passing production, my current top 10 (in order) is: New Orleans, New England, Arizona, Indianapolis, Green Bay, Philadelphia, San Diego, Houston, Cincinnati and Dallas.
Question 8:
I'm in a TD-only keeper league and, according to your sheets, Johnny Lee Higgins is about the best WR left on the board - right around No. 23. Is he even starting? I figured it would be a little while before Heyward-Bey took over, but he is listed above Higgins currently -- as is some guy named Schilens. I'm leaning towards passing over Higgins unless you can convince me otherwise.
WAYNE WILLIAMS [MECHANICSVLLE, VA]
A:
Higgins used to be high on my draft board. Now I’ve got him down at No. 66 among wide receivers in a TD-only format. It looks like they’re going to use him as their No. 3 guy, with Chaz Schilens and Darrius Heyward-Bey starting. Schilens appears to be the clear No. 1 receiver there right now. Higgins will return both punts and kickoffs, so he should pick up about 2 TDs there, but I don’t see him making a big enough impact as a pass catcher to be a factor in fantasy leagues.
Question 9:
Need to quibble with a couple of your rankings. In Monday's update, you indicated that John Carney is more than an adequate replacement for Garrett Hartley -- reliable kicker, dome team, high-scoring offense and a good bet to keep the job all year. But you didn't even rank him among the top 22 kickers. Is that an oversight? Also, you ranked Darren McFadden 18th among running backs in the yardage and TD format, ahead of such players as Kevin Smith, Pierre Thomas and Ronnie Brown. Based on that ranking, it seems that you're putting McFadden in the pool of backs who may be drafted as a No. 2 fantasy starter in the third, fourth or fifth rounds. Don't you think you're a little too high on McFadden, given the possible committee approach there and the general dysfunction that surrounds the Raiders?
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
Carney isn’t ranked higher because it’s not certain he’ll be there all year. He might kick only the first four games. And even as a fill-in kickers, can you really trust him? Limited range. And the Saints have a couple of potentially tricky matchups in weeks 2-3 – at Philadelphia and at Buffalo. As for McFadden, I’ll concede that there’s plenty of uncertainty there. I tweaked his projection upwards last week after he played well against the Cowboys, but I might have overdone it. On your recommendation, I will move him below Kevin Smith and Pierre Thomas when I re-work the overall numbers tomorrow. Not Ronnie Brown, though; I’m scared of that tough schedule the Dolphins are going to play.
Question 10:
I've currently got the No. 1 overall selection in a 16-team league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB and 3 WR/TE. This is our first year allowing draft pick trades prior to the draft. As my skepticism grows of Adrian Peterson truly being head and shoulders above all other fantasy players, I'm closer and closer to trading down. I've got an accepted deal in place to move down from 1.01 to 1.11, and move up from 2.16 to 2.06 along with 4.16 to 4.06. I'd be keeping the first pick of rounds 3 and 5 and so on. Do you feel that there's enough value in this trade to pull the trigger or should I tweak my offer?
donnie schemetti [Richmond, VA]
A:
Not nearly enough. You need an extra player. If you’re trading down from 1.01 to 1.11, the deal must include you picking up a bonus choice in the third or fourth round. How much value is there in moving from 32nd to 22nd? Or from moving up from 64th to 54th? It’s possible with both of those picks that you’ll just wind up with the guys you were going to select anyway. I’m all for trading down, but you need to get the right deal.
Question 11:
I'm in a 10-team league with basic scoring. TDs only. Hitch is RB score is twice as much as QB and WR. start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, D, K. Do you still rank Brees, Brady and Manning as the top 3?
CINDY DUNCAN [DIXON, CA]
A:
Giving running backs twice as much credit for their touchdowns, of course, increases the value of that position. Of the top 16 on my board (for your league), all but four of those players would be running backs – Randy Moss and the three quarterbacks. Going into your draft, I would assume I would be able to get one of those elite three quarterbacks in the third round.
Question 12:
I have the 1st pick in a PPR, 10 teams, standard yds, 6 for all TDs. I really don't wanna HAVE to take Peterson. Even though he is super safe. I really want to be talked out of it and take MJD. According to my math, he is more valuable by FAR! Am I being paranoid? They both could have monster years. I just think MJD does it all (catch, run, goal-line)& has more to offer. You think I should just bit the bullet & just take AP?
John DiLeonardo [Langhorne, PA]
A:
You have to be careful not to underestimate the value of those receptions. When Jones-Drew catches 35 more passes than Peterson, that’s not 35 more points (in your scoring system). It’s about 65 more points – 35 for the catches, and about another 30 for the yards. I suggest you try to trade down; maybe pick up an extra draft pick in the third, fourth or fifth round. If that fails, I would select Jones-Drew over Peterson.
Question 13:
In a dynasty league, with talent and longevity as considerations, who would you pick after Beanie Wells, Knowshon Moreno and Donald Brown? I am less interested in production this year and more inclined to pick a player that offers long-term potential.
Farhan Hassan [SAINT PAUL, MN]
A:
Moreno is the top running back. I think Donald Brown is No. 2; he’s a much better receiver than Wells. And I don’t think there’s a huge dropoff to the next two running backs. Shonn Greene will make an impact with the Jets – if not in 2009, then 2010 – and LeSean McCoy appears to be the heir apparent in Philadelphia behind fragile Brian Westbrook. As discussed in the magazine, I don’t see much difference between the six receivers selected in the first round. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt – you can almost put those names in a hat, it seems. If I had the No. 5 pick, I might be inclined to select Greene or McCoy, figuring that one of the six receivers (I wouldn’t really care which one) might be available next time around. It would depend on the scoring system and structure of the league, but I think I’d put the two heralded rookie quarterbacks behind those 13 players. Sleepers: Carolina's Mike Goodson and Cincinnati's Bernard Scott.
Question 14:
In a 10-team league, starting lineup with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 DEF, 1 K. All TDs are worth 6 points, 1 point per 10 rushing and receiving yards, 1 point per 25 passing yards. We can keep one player we choose from rounds 6-10 at the cost of a sixth and one from rounds 11-15 at the cost of an eleventh (keeping Roddy White and Brandon Marshall). I've run the numbers for custom rankings, and the top QBs are the top three players, which are all rather similar in value. Is it sound to wait to get the top remaining QB in the second round to maximize value?
Zak Lutz [USA]
A:
I think that’s a good idea. I don’t see a huge difference between Brady, Brees and Manning. If you know that you can get one of those quarterbacks a round later than the others, that’s the route to take, in my opinion.
Question 15:
Something is amiss. Perhaps there is a decimal point out of place, because I'm pretty sure you are not actually advising me to spend over $51 of my $200 cap on the Steeler Defense or over $43 on the Viking Defense. Please confirm that Rod Serling has not taken over the site.
Billy LeRoy [YUMA, AZ]
A:
We had a technical problem, with the defensive stats not importing properly. We’ve chased it down. It was tied to the new distance-scoring features that have been added. That new wrinkle caused some problems with how the computer imported the defensive numbers (something along the lines of a team’s 40 projected sacks turning into 40 projected defensive TDs). But I think the tech guys have it handled.
Question 16:
I'm drafting 10th in a 12 team league. We start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 TE, 1 PK, and 1 D. I'm thinking I should be able to get two stud WRs the first 2 rounds. Is there any RB if he fell to you that you would just have to grab?
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
I’m not sure of your scoring system, but with the rule requiring three wide receivers to start (and the flexibility to use a fourth), I imagine they’ll be well represented on the top of your draft board. I suggest you stick off your overall board and see how it goes. There are also three elite quarterbacks in play and some very good running backs. Prior to the draft, I wouldn’t rule out any of these positions as possibilities in the second round.
Question 17:
I'm in a league where the draft is this Sunday 8/23 (way too early if you ask me). I know the updated sheets come out on Monday, which is a day too late. Is there gonna be anything that drastically changes from the 8/17 sheet that I can keep note of?
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
You mean besides Brett Favre signing with the Vikings? I will address that move in the rankings that go out on Thursday. I’m sure there will be developments as well in the Friday and Saturday exhibitions. Usually, there are at least a couple of significant players that a big move each weekend.
Question 18:
What's up with the conservative mag cover-boys over the past couple years? Yeah, Tatum Bell didn't work out so well but so what? You guys caught my attention with that cover, because it took some balls. Larry Fitz this year? L.T. and Shaun Alexander the years before that? Wow, way to really go out on a limb there guys! Are you guys ever gonna' get back to what set you guys apart?
John Broadbent [FEASTERVILLE TREVOSE, PA]
A:
With the cover, our process is to look at three or four cover candidates, then select the best photo from that group. For the 2009, the four players we looked for the cover were Larry Fitzgerald, Ray Rice, Anthony Gonzalez and Brent Celek. It was a long, hard decision – a lot of blood on the table on this one – but Fitzgerald just won out.
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Question 6: I just got done looking...
Posted by JAMES TALLEUR | Aug. 21 at 02:15 AM
Ian, As most of us have been reading the headlines it seems that the number of players being suspended keeps rising. Everyone knows about Stallworth,Calvin Pace,and Shaun Ellis are their any other players on Commissioner Goodell chopping block? It so hard to keep up with the moron millionaires maybe you can help. James Talleur (Hyde Park, NY)
Question 18: What's up with the conservative...
Posted by John Broadbent | Aug. 18 at 06:18 AM
That's actually very reassuring and FWIW, I got Brent Celek in the 15th round of my draft last night. Probably wouldn't have happened had he graced my magazine cover in a draft full of Eagles fans. Keep up the good work guys.
Question 18: What's up with the conservative...
Posted by Michael Martin | Aug. 18 at 01:00 PM
Thank you for NOT putting Rice, Gonzalez or Celek on the cover ... that would have made it MUCH harder to keep them under the radar!