Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 21 at 06:56 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
How do you see the Saints WRs performing this year? What is your read and projections for Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore?
DEO GARLOCK [RALEIGH, NC]
A:
Colston is the No. 1 receiver there. He should be pretty good. Devery Henderson is the other starter, but he’s strictly a deep threat. He’ll catch about 35 passes and 3-4 TDs, and all of those touchdowns will be from 30-plus yards. Moore is kind of a poor man’s Hines Ward. He might catch 70 passes, but they’ll almost all be shorter, underneath patterns. Maybe he finishes the season with 800-900 yards and 6 TDs. The intriguing guy, I think, is Meachem. He’s their No. 4 receiver. Right now, he’s in a similar role as Henderson – making just a few big plays. But if any of those other three receivers gets hurt, I think Meachem could step in and be very good.
Question 2:
You give Wes Welker plenty of love in a PPR format. You don't see Edelman cutting into those numbers?
THOMAS WRIGHT [CUYAHOGA FLS, OH]
A:
Julian Edelman looks like a neat little player. He did a nice job filling in for Welker in the first preseason game. This is the guy out of Kent State that they selected in the seventh round. But it is way too early, I think, to say that Edelman has even made the team. They might try to stash him on their practice squad. I don’t think Edelman has the right skill set to beat out Joey Galloway or Greg Lewis for one of those reserve receiver spots. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t see him getting on the field much this year. At the very best, I think he’ll be their fourth receiver, playing some special teams and getting on the field every once in a while. No way, in my opinion, are the Patriots even thinking about spelling Welker for a couple of series per game. Edelman makes sense as a last-round pick in a dynasty format; that’s about it.
Question 3:
I just read your thoughts on the team quarterbacks (passing production). Love the info & predictions. Can you give your thoughts on each team’s rushing production? I believe it's important to draft more good players from these teams to get the most out of your team. I believe it's important to identify top offenses.
DARYL DORSEY [AMARILLO, TX]
A:
Current team projections appear below. They include expected rushing yards per game (including QBs and WRs), TDs per season, and fantasy points per game (using 6 for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards).
Yds TDR Pts
145 20.3 22.1 Carolina
148 18.2 21.6 NY Giants
145 18.5 21.4 Minnesota
141 17.4 20.6 Baltimore
135 18.5 20.4 Tennessee
137 17.3 20.2 Atlanta
123 18.1 19.1 New England
130 15.8 18.9 NY Jets
125 16.3 18.6 Jacksonville
120 16.6 18.2 Dallas
117 16.0 17.7 Pittsburgh
117 14.4 17.1 San Diego
116 14.2 16.9 Philadelphia
120 12.8 16.8 Washington
112 14.4 16.6 Chicago
115 13.3 16.5 San Francisco
113 13.8 16.5 Houston
115 12.8 16.3 Denver
111 13.8 16.3 Miami
112 13.0 16.1 Green Bay
112 13.0 16.1 Tampa Bay
115 12.0 16.0 Oakland
111 11.8 15.5 Seattle
99 14.6 15.4 New Orleans
107 12.0 15.2 St. Louis
96 14.6 15.1 Indianapolis
105 11.7 14.9 Buffalo
108 10.6 14.8 Kansas City
93 13.8 14.5 Arizona
101 10.4 14.0 Cincinnati
95 10.2 13.3 Detroit
95 9.0 12.9 Cleveland
Question 4:
In our league, we draft a coach, getting 5 points if they win in the NFL that week. Not a high priority, but in year’s past if you got a Belichick or Dungy, you could at least sit on them all year rather than playing the coaching merry-go-round, (getting a new one each week). This season though, I don’t see any “gotta have” coach (someone you can draft, then sit on all season as their team goes 14-2), so I think the “merry-go-round” approach (play the waiver wire each week based on match-ups) may actually be the tact to take. That said, what teams look to have the easiest schedules coming out of the gate, so I can grab a coach with my last pick and maybe hope for 3 or 4 straight wins, before I have to start playing the waiver wire for coaches the remainder of the season?
Matt Tinker. Team: "Super Devil Juice" [Orleans, VT]
A:
The Vikings have the easiest opening schedule. Four of their first five are against the Browns, Lions, Rams and 49ers. And their week 4 game, against Green Bay, at least is at home. Looks like a possible 5-0 start. In terms of overall projected wins, the Steelers, Patriots, Colts, Giants, Eagles, Chargers and Vikings would be at the top of my board.
Question 5:
I have read your opinions on how the Denver backfield will work this year and I think you are missing something. From what I have read, Buckhalter is the current starter. Moreno may pass him at some point this year but his injury slows down that process. Daniels' work with the New England offense tended to use a committee approach with starter, goal-line, 3rd-down and change-of-pace back with the inexperienced Maroney getting less work. I see something similar happening here which would decrease Moreno's value and increase Buckhalter's value and see Jordan as the change of pace guy. Moreno ran like a 4.67 in the combine and may not be that fast or as special of a talent as you give him credit for and Daniels may use the experienced Buckhalter more.
BRETT CARON [LEWIS CENTER, OH]
A:
I’ll say this about Buckhalter. Last year, he averaged more 20-yard runs than any running back in the league (one per every 15 carries) and also, remarkably, averaged more 20-yard receptions than any other running back. And I also kind of like Peyton Hillis. He looks more like a linebacker than a running back, but every time he’s out there, he’s breaking tackles. I could see Hillis being used as a goal-line guy. Nevertheless, Moreno is by far their most talented back, and I expect him to be the centerpiece of that offense.
Question 6:
I have the first pick overall (for the first time in 15 years) and I don't love A.P. Another reader asked about a trade for this spot and you said not enough value. What do you think a fair trade is for that spot and do you think it's a wise move to dish that pick?
DANIEL HORT [BRONX, NY]
A:
I had the No. 2 pick in a 12-team league and was able to trade it for picks 1.11 and 4.02. I was happy with that deal – and extra fourth-rounder is a potentially good player. I think that’s what you should shoot for. It probably also makes sense to move the pick for simply an extra fifth-rounder, but I’m sure that you’ll find someone out there who would really like to get Peterson.
Question 7:
You mention that you are scared of Ronnie Brown's ranking because of his difficult schedule, but when you revised the schedules just through week 16 a few weeks ago, I noticed that the Dolphins do not have the toughest schedule, but the 27th most difficult (they get PIT in week 17). Also, if you look at their schedule, they play some teams with good win/loss records in the prior year, but do not have great defenses according to most of your rankings. These include: Atlanta, Indy, New Orleans, Tampa Bay (new coach/defensive coordinator/turnover so the jury is still out) and Carolina (have and will look mediocre without their starting NT). Ronnie is in a contract year, has a smart QB, strong O-line and a 32-year-old backup who has been "showing his age" according to beat writers (though he looked pretty good in the preseason game). For those in leagues through week 16 only, would you say he should be moved up in your rankings, and if so, who would you put him ahead of?
Brian MacInnes [HERMOSA BEACH, CA]
A:
There’s some good analysis there. If I miss any weeks this year because of illness or suspension (maybe I punch out one of our other staffers or something), maybe you could fill in here and there wouldn’t be much of a dropoff. In particular, the Bucs have a defense that might not be nearly as good this season – they really tailed off last year after Monte Kiffin announced he wouldn’t be coming back. So I will agree that it’s fair to upgrade Miami’s schedule from “ridiculously hard” to “one of the hardest schedules”. Either way, though, it’s going to be much more difficult than last year. With Brown, a key factor is Pat White. Can they get him up to speed to the point where White is running their Wildcat stuff? If so, that will hurt Brown’s value. There was very little difference between Brown and Ricky Williams during the second half of last season.
Question 8:
I'm in a modified TD-only league (6 pts Rec/Rush and 4 pts pass BUT same pts as TDs again for 100 yds rush/rec and again at 200 yds rush/rec, 300 yds pass and again at 450 pass). We start 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D. I'm drafting #5 in a snake draft and I'm pretty sure that #1-4 picks will be RBs. Assuming that happens, is there better value for me drafting the next RB, drafting Brees/Brady or looking at taking Moss? Where is the pick better value, the #5 RB over the others, the #1 QB, or #1 WR?
Jason Brater [ANN ARBOR, MI]
A:
I think you go with a receiver at No. 5. Maybe two receivers and a quarterback with your first three picks. There are enough running backs out there, I think, that you can adequately address that position with some less-heralded guys in the middle rounds.
Question 9:
I'm a bit confused regarding the whole first- and second-round drafting strategy. Everyone speaks of having to land one of the RBs in the first round and that you can get a QB later on that is serviceable enough since you only have to start 1. In a 6 pt/TD pass league your charts have Brees and Brady 1 and 3 overall. I've been doing mock drafts and drafting according to this and late in the 2nd round the WR that is there is rated much higher than the highest available RB so I've been going with the higher rated player and in some cases the same thing in the 3rd round and then winding up with RBs such as Benson, Rice, Moreno. Is that a winning formula compared to taking a guy like MJD or Turner in round 1 and getting a WR in round 2 and either another WR early in the 3rd or a rivers/rodgers?
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
Yes. By focusing on quarterbacks and wide receivers early, you can build up a statistical advantage at those positions, and there are enough running backs who’ll be available after the initial onslaught – guys like Benson, Rice, Larry Johnson – that you’ll be to adequately address the running back position.
Question 10:
Couple questions for you as I prepare for my draft. Please keep in mind we start 1 Qb, 2Rb, 3Wrs, 1TE. Standard scoring (all tds 6pts, passing 50yds =1pt, rush/rec 25yds =1pt, No PPR).
Also everyone keeps 1 wr, 1 rb, and 1 qb. I have the 2nd, 12th and 13th overall picks. I plan to take 1 rb and 2wrs with those picks. That way I have my starting RB’s and WR’s filled. My dilemma is as follows: The clear top 3 RB’s not kept are LT, Gore, and Jacobs. I am pretty sure LT will go to the number one pick leaving me Gore preferably. The only complication would be the consideration of the following receivers. I suspect 4 of these receivers to be taken before my 12th and 13th picks. S.Smith, A.Gonz, R. White, T.O, V.Jackson, D.Bowe, M.Colston,Ocho, Housh, Coles, A. Bryant, Holmes, Berrian, D Jackson, B. Edwards, Roy Williams, Lee evans, Holt, Royal, Ward, Ginn, S. moss. I stop there as I don’t consider the remaining worthy of a 3rd wr starting slot. I am also considering Gates or Tony Gonzalez here as I would not have a shot at these elite TE’s by the time my next pick comes around. Thus my questions are as follows: Do I stick with Gore/LT/Jacobs as my first pick since they are such elite backs (others would be portis, Ronnie brown, p.thomas, k. smith ect.) or do I jump on Steve smith? If I do go Rb with my first pick how would you rank them, Gore then LT, then Jacobs?
Bret Priaulx [Milwaukee, WI]
A:
In your league, you're giving very little credit for yards. It's essentially a TD-only league. And in a touchdown-driven format, I think Brandon Jacobs is the clear choice for you. That team really runs the ball well and scores on the ground, and he's their clear No. 1 guy. I was at that "Fantasy Football Camp" with John Clayton last night. Of the guys on your list, he's really high on Frank Gore and Marques Colston.
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Question 8: I'm in a modified TD-only...
Posted by MARTIN DONNELLY | Aug. 24 at 07:29 AM
...as opposed to a sissified standard-scoring league. Good to know there are still fantasy footballers out there!