Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 04 at 04:13 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Now that you've had the preseason to see the rookies, what would your rookie/dynasty league top 10 look like? And how would Sanchez's value change if the Jets swing a trade for Brandon Marshall?
Mike Faxel [Tinley Park, IL]
A:
Different fantasy leagues have different rules, changing the values of the positions. Receivers, for example, become more valuable when you move to starting three of them and using a PPR format. But if we kind of set that aside, the rookie who appears to be headed for the best career is Mark Sanchez. He’s been very good in the preseason games. I don’t have access to all of the all-time preseason numbers, but I’m guessing he might have just completed the best-ever preseason by a rookie quarterback – 24 of 37 passing, with 3 TDs. He’s averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt, which is way ahead of what Matt Ryan (5.0) and Joe Flacco (4.2) did last year. So Sanchez is the guy I would take No. 1 overall, assuming I wasn’t in a league where quarterbacks are hopelessly undervalued. The next three on my board would be running backs: Knowshon Moreno, Donald Brown, Beanie Wells. I’ll go Brown over Wells if we’re including receiving production. Maybe Hakeem Nicks No. 5; I think he’ll be New York’s clear No. 1 receiver in 2010 – he might become their top guy this season. And that’s about as far as we can go, I think, before scoring systems and your own team needs start to heavily affect things. I would be torn between the next tier of running backs. Shonn Greene, LeSean McCoy and Glen Coffee will probably be the next backs selected, but I’ve been more impressed by a pair of sixth-rounders drafted by the Ohio teams – James Davis (Cleveland) and Bernard Scott (Cincinnati). Of that group, Davis and McCoy are the most likely to move into starting lineups sooner rather than later (Brian Westbrook always gets hurt and Jamal Lewis can’t play anymore). Also in contention for the No. 6 spot overall would be all of the other five receivers selected in the first round: Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree and then Kenny Britt. I see little difference between those guys. If you’re in a TD-only format, Harvin might make the most sense – he’ll probably be the best in 2009. And Matthew Stafford also deserves consideration in that big group of players; he seems to be progressing reasonably well. That’s about 16 players. Remaining guys who are worth drafting, I think, would include Josh Freeman of Tampa Bay; he’s not as heralded as Stafford or Sanchez, but he runs a lot better than those guys. Freeman could be another Daunte Culpepper, running for 600-plus yards and 5 TDs every year. At tight end, the best two are Brandon Pettigrew and Jared Cook (but I don’t see either as a priority) Cook is an unusually athletic guy for a tight end; he could be pretty good in 2010. I’m not sure that the other tight ends – Chase Coffman, Travis Beckum, Shawn Nelson – are worth drafting in most formats. Running backs Mike Goodson (Carolina) and Javon Ringer (Tennessee) would come in around 20th on my board. For wide receivers selected outside the first round, the best appear to be (in order) Brian Hartline (Miami), Mohamed Massaquoi (Cleveland), Austin Collie (Indianapolis), Derrick Williams (Detroit), Louis Murphy (Oakland), Deon Butler (Seattle), Julian Edelman (New England) and Sammie Stroughter (Tampa Bay). All of those receivers could figure in about 15 players into a dynasty draft.
Question 2:
What's the deal with the rise and fall and rise of Matt Forte in the PPR rankings? I passed him up at pick No. 5 (took Randy Moss instead) because he'd dropped out of the top 10, then I look yesterday and he's back up in the top 5. Why is his rank fluctuating like Oprah's weight?
Jacob Wilson [Crandall, TX]
A:
Forte caught 63 passes last year, the most by any running back. That played a big role in Forte being the No. 1 running back on our board in the magazine. Then I latched onto the idea that Jay Cutler wouldn’t throw nearly as many passes to running backs. Cutler has a much stronger arm than Kyle Orton, and he likes to go downfield to his wide receivers (Denver’s running backs caught a league-low 11 percent of their team’s passes last year). And that theory was supported in the first two preseason games, where Cutler constantly looked deep rather than taking the dumpoff passes. So I’m thinking that Forte is more likely to finish down around 40 catches, rather than up at 60-plus – and that really hurts him in the PPR format. But then, at Denver, Cutler completed 5 passes to Forte, including a touchdown. So now I’ve moved Forte back into the range of about 52 catches. Sorry to have him moving around so much – I tend to move the guys around too much, I think – but I’m just trying to get it right.
Question 3:
I drafted Reggie Wayne in the second round and was shocked that Anthony Gonzalez was still available in the eighth. So I took him. I'm of the opinion that having to WRs from the same team is a bad tactic and was wondering if there is any historical evidence to support this. My general fear is that the Colts might end up in a game where they score less than 10 points, killing me in two lineup spots. I have a tentative agreement in place to move Wayne for Boldin. I should say that I also have Steve Smith and Ochocinco (I wait on RBs). Too many eggs in one basket or good insurance/future trade bait?
Brian Grzybowski [RICHMOND, VA]
A:
If it’s with the right team, I have no problem with having two wide receivers. The Colts are definitely one of those teams, so I think you should be happy to have that combo – I wouldn’t have hesitated to draft Dallas Clark as well. If your league decides things in weeks 14-16, that pair could help you win a championship. Indianapolis plays the Broncos, Jaguars and Jets in those weeks, and I’d love to roll out Wayne and Gonzalez for all three of those games.
Question 4:
Would you draft Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to the same fantasy team or is it fantasy suicide?
sean sullivan [MAITLAND, FL]
A:
Those guys are both great players, so I see no problem with drafting both of them. Some seem to worry about Fitzgerald and Boldin “taking away from each other” or both being shut down when Arizona struggles. I don’t see it that way. They’ve both been productive players for years. And having them on the same fantasy roster, oddly, might make your team MORE consistent. If Boldin happens to be held to 2 catches for only 30 yards, that probably means that Fitzgerald caught plenty of passes that week. And if Fitzgerald doesn’t score, that actually makes it more likely that Boldin got in the end zone. Fitzgerald didn’t score in seven games last year; Boldin scored in five of those games. (In the five games that Fitzgerald scored, on the other hand, Boldin scored in only two of those). Boldin, on the other hand, scored in seven games (and also did not play in four games); Fitzgerald was a monster in those 11 games, scoring 10 of his 12 TDs.
Question 5:
I know it is usually not considered a good idea to have too many players from the same NFL team on your fantasy team on the theory that if the NFL team has a bad day then so does your fantasy team. But ... with the advent of running back committees on NFL teams, why not use an NFL committee on your fantasy team? I mean, why tear your hair out having Ray Rice or Leon Washington on your team only to see them pulled in favor of Willis McGahee or Thomas Jones when their teams get into the red zone? Why not draft and start the tandems of Rice/McGahee or Washington/Jones? Then, except for the odd fullback dive or QB scramble you're pretty much guaranteed virtually all of the rushing touchdowns from that team? Of course, the way your draft plays out, and the particular strategy you use (e.g., this year I'm drafting WRs early and then RBs in the middle rounds) will influence who you actually get on your team and how you use them. Also, the quality of the handcuff player makes a difference, as does the red zone philosophy of the NFL team. But if I draft Tomlinson relatively early, for example, then maybe Ray Rice later on, and then Sproles as a handcuff, I think it's not a stretch of the imagination to envision a week in which I'd rather start Tomlinson/Sproles than Tomlinson/Rice. I could see the same sort of scenario with Jacobs/Bradshaw, Johnson/White, Westbrook/McCoy, Peterson/Taylor, or given Arizona's strength of schedule and the particular matchup, even Wells/Hightower (or Hightower/Wells, as the case may be). In my estimation, the running back by committee approach in the NFL has not yet reached its high water mark. In future years I think we'll see more of it, not less. Similarly, I think we'll see more and more drafting of handcuff players in fantasy football not just as "in case" backups, but as potential matchup-based starters. I don't think the committee approach applies to fantasy football in quite the same way as it does in the NFL. For example, somebody with a late first-round pick in a 10 team snake draft might be able to snag, say, Chris Johnson and then get Brian Westbrook or Clinton Portis on the turnaround as his 1 and 2 backs. But if I get Ray Rice, you can bet I'm going to try to get Willis McGahee, and if I do, then there'll probably be a week or three in which I start both of them. I think as the RBBC tide continues to rise in the NFL, we'll see more and more fantasy players thinking on those terms in their drafts, and there'll be a parallel rise of it in fantasy football, though not to the same degree.
Stephen Messenger [DERWOOD, MD]
A:
In 12- and 14-team leagues, I think it makes sense to use a RBBC tandem at times. Definitely Jacobs-Bradshaw and Johnson-White, and I think you can put Marion Barber and Felix Jones in there as well. But I don’t consider the RBBC concept to be new. Within the last year, I don’t recall the exact date, I explored the idea of whether the committee approach was growing in popularity. It’s not. When you look at the numbers, you’ll see that there are now more 1,000-yard rushers and guys running for 10-plus TDs than ever. Running attacks were actually more diverse in the ‘70s, ‘80s and ‘90s, in part because the fullback was usually more involved as a ball handler. I heard someone mention on the radio or TV within the last two weeks that Miami used to have a three-back system – Larry Csonka, Mercury Morris and Jim Kiick. Pittsburgh put both Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier over 1,000 rushing yards in 1976, and both Kevin Mack and Earnest Byner went over 1,000 yards for the Browns in 1985. Washington always used a committee approach with its big rushing attack in the mid-‘80s, with Joe Washington and John Riggins, and later Kelvin Bryant and George Rogers. I watched a rebroadcast of the Dallas-Pittsburgh Super Bowl from 1979 and was surprised how often the Cowboys would send give the ball to Robert Newhouse rather than Tony Dorsett. In the late ‘80s, you had Robert Brooks working with Ickey Woods in Cincinnati. Running back by committee is not new. I don’t think it’s really any different than it has been all along.
Question 6:
I have a keeper league draft (PPR) coming up Sunday. We start QB, RB, RB, WR/TE, WR/TE, flex (RB/WR/TE), K, D (no mandatory TE). 10 teams, owners can keep up to 4 players, the average owner keeps 3. I protected Steve Smith, Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs, and Tom Brady. I have 3 of the first 10 picks in the draft (after keepers). If everything goes like I think it will, there will be only three teams without QBs when I make my first couple picks, and two of those are in my division. I have a strong feeling that Aaron Rodgers will be available when I am making these picks, and I don't think there will be 3 RBs and/or WRs from my top 15 at those respective positions available with these first 3 picks. If this is indeed the case, should I draft Rodgers to secure my backup QB and to keep him away from the other owners? I could also use him to trade later on.
Chris Thompson [Los Angeles, CA]
A:
We’ll see how it unfolds, but Rodgers might be too good to pass up. I think he’s right there with Brady, Manning and Brees. If you draft him, you will definitely have the ability to trade him later. Or maybe you trade Brady instead, if he fetches a better package in return. I would be nervous about letting Rodgers fall into the hands of another team at too low a cost.
Question 7:
How does the change of offensive coordinators in KC and TB affect those offenses and the relevant fantasy players involved?
Moishe Steigmann [MAMARONECK, NY]
A:
Those changes don’t cause any big offensive shifts – at least not that I can see. With these teams, the bigger issue is that they’re last-place teams. The Bucs went 9-7 last year, but this is certainly the last-place team in the NFC South. They’ll probably go about 5-11, and they won’t be putting up big offensive numbers. They’ll probably play Josh Freeman for the second half of the season – develop him for 2010. And Kansas City is in the same boat. That’s a garbage team. If not for Oakland and Denver also being in the AFC West, it would be safe to also pencil them in for no better than 5-11. Considering how poor these teams are, I think you need to be awfully careful when investing in Antonio Bryant, Kellen Winslow, Dwayne Bowe, Larry Johnson or Matt Cassel. Bad teams tend to have bad players.
Question 8:
I drafted Cedric Benson on August 23rd and since then have been hearing not so great news about him. It sounds like his backup, Bernard Scott, should be sharing some carries and if Benson were to get hurt it sounds like Scott would be way better than Benson. Should I stash Scott on my bench, I am in a sixteen-team league, so players like Scott are sometime roster worthy. What are your thoughts?
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
A:
I think Benson will be OK. He’s definitely their starter. He’s in shape and motivated. But I don’t think he can be special behind that offensive line. That’s definitely a concern. And he’s got the five tough matchups against the Steelers, Ravens and Vikings. In a 16-team format, I think it makes sense to stash away Bernard Scott. I believe Scott has the necessary skills to be a starter at the NFL level.
Question 9:
I have used your rankings for about 10 years and I have had plenty of success in the past, but I am more nervous about my team this year than ever before. Here's how the first nine rounds went (standard scoring and lineups, 12-team league with 3 WRs): 1) Moss 2) Brady 3) Ochocinco 4) Rice 5) Benson 6) Bush 7) Hester 8) Mason 9) Bradshaw. After the second round nothing really went my way, but a lot of my guys are still high in your rankings. I have way too many eggs in the Bengals and Ravens' baskets though. Am I in trouble? Desperately seeking validation.
Robert Miller [EDEN PRAIRIE, MN]
A:
If you don’t want that team, I’ll be happy to buy it from you. I think it’s going to rack up a lot of wins. You might have the No. 1 wide receiver and the No. 1 quarterback. I think you’ll be fine at running back. And you’ve got three other starter-caliber receivers. In the 23-year DFL, which is also a 12-man league with 3 WRs (touchdown only), we had our auction Monday night. My team is not as good as the one you’ve outlined here.
Question 10:
I was wondering how much importance defenses get when you start adding Return Yardage. My league is adding 15 yards for kick returns and we're thinking 5 yards on punt returns. So who gets better, when should I be looking at defenses and so forth?
Denise Parsons [Hamilton, ON]
A:
If you’re giving points for kickoff return yardage, that will help the lesser teams. Bad teams get scored on more often, so they finish with more yards on kickoffs. Of the top 9 teams last year in kickoff return yardage, none of those teams made the playoffs. The Seahawks, Bears, Bills and Lions were the four teams that finished with over 120 points (in your league) in kickoff yardage points. The only two teams finishing under 70 points, on the other hand, were the best defensive teams – Pittsburgh and Baltimore. It’s less predictable with punt returns.
Question 11:
In a standard 12-team league with 6 pts per TD pass I have put in my custom scoring for the league and used the default auction profiles. Brady, Brees and Manning come out 1-3. Rodgers was 11th overall. If I have the 2nd pick in the draft, would it make more sense to grab the RB with the notion that Rodgers will be there at 23 when I pick again and wind up with 2 of the top 11 players overall? Or is the play still Brady or Brees? It's a big assumption that Rodgers will be there at 23, but he very well could.
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
If we know that Rodgers will be there at 23, then definitely go that route. He’s right there with that top group of quarterbacks, in my opinion. The only thing I don’t like about Rodgers is that he has to play Baltimore in week 13 and at Pittsburgh in week 15.
Question 12:
I'm in an auction keeper league with standard performance scoring. The one interesting bit is that we start 2 QBs every week. Through misfortune and some poor planning, I wound up with only 2 QBs: Matt Schaub and Mark Sanchez. I've been offered Matt Leinart ($2) for Donnie Avery ($1). I'm not sure how I want to play it. Avery is an outstanding deal at $1, especially if he becomes a "mini-Holt" as the No. 1 WR in the Rams' offense, and Leinart isn't even the starter in Arizona. If he does become the starter at some point, though, I'm in excellent shape and suddenly have depth at QB that I didn't have before. What do you suggest I do?
PAUL GRUBB [FORT COLLINS, CO]
A:
Avery is higher on my board. Unless you have a bunch of other wide receivers (meaning Avery is of little value to you) I would be inclined to hang onto him and pick up some other backup quarterback – Jeff Garcia, Michael Vick, Seneca Wallace, Sage Rosenfels, etc.
Question 13:
In a keeper league where you can keep players forever, standard yardage, who would you rather have: Flacco or Stafford? Same question for RBs, please rank 1 through 3 of: Joseph Addai, Ronnie Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw?
Joe Cartan [SAN FRANCISCO, CA]
A:
I’ll go Flacco over Stafford. Definitely. Flacco should be a productive quarterback this season. With Stafford, I can’t say with any certainty that he’ll ever become a viable fantasy option. At running back, I’ll go Addai, Brown, then Bradshaw, thought I’d give some thought to Brown at No. 1.
Question 14:
In argument with a fellow indexer on the following PPR trade for my 3RB 3WR 1TE no flex roster: I give StSm and Witten, in return for R.Moss... Current WR/TE's on my roster are Fitz/StSm/WesWelk & Witten(start) with Coles/Holt/L.Robinson and Z.Miller on the bench. At the other end of the trade, the starting WR/TE are Moss/CalvinJ/Stokley with Olsen at TE. Is this trade worth consideration? Or would I be tossing too much value for both SS and Witten.
Jared Cravy [Vallejo, CA]
A:
Would prefer to have Steve Smith and Jason Witten.
Witten is going to catch 80-plus passes. You know he will add considerable pop to your lineup. I would not give that up to upgrade from Smith to Moss. Smith is a good player; he'll probably catch more passes than Moss.
Question 15:
I think I've handcuffed my lineup at receiver for the 2009 season. In the league I’m in, which offers no trades. With Randy Moss my first pick, for some reason I took Wes Welker as my third pick, looking at projections. What’s your thoughts on starting these two studs the rest of season in a PPR format? My other WRs are Ginn, Gage and Michael Jenkins. This league starts two receivers only.
dean stewart [SEAGOVILLE, TX]
A:
With Moss and Welker, you’re set at wide receiver. Ginn and Gage can fill in on your bye week. I suggest you release Jenkins. There’s little chance you will use him – better to fill that roster spot with a backup running back who might be elevated into a starring role because of an injury.
Question 16:
Matt Leinart went undrafted in our league. We have $20 to bid on a player and I think that Leinart could easily be at the least, a top-15 QB. The other concern is Kurt Warner, who is still recovering from hip surgery. At a certain point, I think Leinart will take over as the starter. One other thing: my current QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. What are your thoughts?
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Rodgers and Rivers, I think, are clear top-5 quarterbacks. Even if Warner retired today, I’m not sure that Leinart would ever get on the field for your team. So his only value to you would be as trade bait – or to simply keep him off another team. If I were in your position, I would rather use that roster spot on a No. 2 tailback who could move into a starting role with an injury – somebody like Glen Coffee, LeSean McCoy or Rashard Mendenhall. It seems like that would be a better fit with your franchise.
Question 17:
I drafted last night in a PPR league I was pick 2. I selected Maurice Jones-Drew. I get home and find out he left the preseason game with a leg injury should I be worried?
matt cottone [MOUNT MORRIS, NY]
Question 18:
I am contemplating this trade with another team owner. My RBs are Jones-Drew, Barber, Choice, Addai, Brown and Rice. He has the following WRs: White, Jennings and Colston. This is a PPR league. He wants Barber and has offered me my choice of his WRs. My question is of course, who do I pick.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
In that format, White is the highest on my board. He should catch a lot more passes than Jennings (the Packers have a far more diverse attack). Colston, with the durability issues and the incredible depth in New Orleans, is well back behind those guys.
Question 19:
Could you give a quick draft grade? Starting lineup regular but one WR/TE added. Normal scoring; partial PPR. 2 Matt Forte, 19 Calvin Johnson, 22 Reggie Wayne, 39 Kevin Smith, 42 Jason Witten, 59 DeSean Jackson, 62 Ray Rice, 79 Matt Schaub, 82 LenDale White, 99 Derrick Mason, 102 Jonathan Stewart, 119 Kyle Orton, 122 Jets, 139 Michael Bush, 142 Correll Buckhalter, 159 Jason Elam.
Zak Lutz [, ]
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Question 5: I know it is usually...
Posted by JOHN CAMP | Sep. 06 at 02:37 AM
I think that was James Brooks running with Ickey Woods in Cincinatti...
Question 14: In argument with a fellow...
Posted by Jared Cravy | Sep. 04 at 05:13 PM
V.2.0 I assume Welker/Witten for Moss would follow the same philosophy, Witten being too much value to drop. According to my custom rankings, I'd receive the #5 overall for #15 and #40.
Question 19: Could you give a quick...
Posted by KEVIN LAVIANO | Sep. 08 at 01:34 PM
Review of my team. I have been a customer for over 9 years and love the service. I am in a PPR auction league with a $200 salary cap. I took your suggestion this year on drafting heavy on WRs and QBs. I usually go RB heavy and have been in the top 3 each year. However, I want to win it this year: QBs: Ryan, Cutler, Palmer RBs: Kevin Smith, M.Moreno, L. Washington, D. Sproils, B. Wells WR: Roddy White, Wes Welker, Ochicinco,D. Mason. D. Hester, K. Walter TE: Dallas Clark Def: Baltimore I need to cut somone for a kicker. I am really worried about RB. What do you think? Thanks, Kevin