Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Sep. 25 at 12:28 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I have a question related to how the NFL defines roster requirements? For example, when Pennington came off the field the other night and Ronnie Brown took a direct snap and ran for a TD, was he technically considered the QB by the NFL? I know in an earlier mailbag (it may have been last year) you noted that when TEAM QB is used for scoring that in Wildcat situations you should just ignore who takes the snap, which I agree, but if the player comes off the field I think it is different (and they kept stats on this so it is possible to adjust scoring). Given that question, what about a case where Michael Vick comes in and lines up at WR or RB (as he did in the preseason) and McNabb or Kolb throws him a TD or hands the ball to him. In Team QB scoring, would these points go the Team QB? I don't like the Team QB idea (even before the Wildcat) and I am trying to convince my league that new NFL strategy provides an obvious limitation and confusion in how scoring is determined. I would appreciate your thoughts.
Keith Swiniarski [BOCA RATON, FL]
A:
Those leagues using a “team quarterback” rule will want to take a careful look at the rulebook. Otherwise, there could be some ugly league management situations coming up in a few weeks. What if Michael Vick throws a touchdown pass to Donovan McNabb? Would a team quarterback get credit on that play for both a touchdown pass and a touchdown reception? And if Vick lines up as a running back, takes a handoff and runs for a 6-yard touchdown, how is that scored? It could be a headache for some leagues. The easiest scoring system for team quarterbacks, it seems, is to give points whenever that team throws a touchdown pass – whether it be on a halfback option pass or whatever. But what you sacrifice there is the value of quarterbacks who run in scores on their own. The NFL doesn’t much care about this issue. It doesn’t track whether Ronnie Brown’s runs come from the tailback or quarterback positions.
Question 2:
I'm curious about your prognosis for Derrick Mason. With the Raven offense seemingly much better and more open that previous years, the production hasn't seemed to include Mason. Is he too old? Has Clayton overtaken him value wise? I currently have Larry Fitzgerald and Wes Welker and am thinking about cutting Mason to pick up Mario Manningham. Is this a wise move or should I wait to see if Mason pans out.
Johnny Bazzano [SANTA ROSA, CA]
A:
That’s called taking it strong the rack. Bold move. And this country was built by men who came before you with the same kind of initiative. You can be sure that when James J. Hill was building his railroad empire, if he were running a fantasy football team in his free time, he would send a telegraph authorizing the acquisition of Manningham. On my board, I’ve got Mason just inside the top 20 and Manningham just outside the top 20. I think Mason is still Baltimore’s top receiver, and I liked the way he played in one of their preseason games – didn’t look too old to me. But I will concede that Manningham is an up-and-comer on the rise. If I were concerned only about week 3, I would go with Manningham.
Question 3:
I'm in a league that gives points for defenses only (no special teams) – 1 point per sack, fumble rec, and int and then 5 pts for a TD and 6 for shutout. Now that we've had a few weeks to watch, what would you say are the 15 top Ds in the league under that scoring system? (Is there a reason that you don't provide a disaggregated ranking for defenses only in your rankings?)
Jason Brater [ANN ARBOR, MI]
A:
Everyone does defenses differently. Some include yards and points, with various sliding scales. Some award more points for sacks and takeaways. And most (I think) also lump the special teams in there, giving points for kick returns, blocked kick returns and whatnot. So there’s really no way to put a definitive defense list on our product that would come close to making even a half of the people happy. So the best way to access our defensive projections is through the “Custom Cheat Sheet” option on the web. You plug in your league’s scoring system, and the computer then runs our projections through that filter, putting the 32 defenses in order. Andy Richardson does most of the heavy lifting on defenses around here. For each team, he tracks and forecasts fumbles, interceptions, passing yards, rushing yards, sacks, points, defensive touchdowns and kick-return touchdowns. Every two weeks, I go over all of his numbers and make tweaks here and there, and we argue about who should go up and down. Currently, on the Richardson Scale, the top tier of defenses includes the Steelers, Giants, Vikings, Ravens, Eagles and Jets.
Question 4:
How are leagues scoring the Washington Redskins fake field goal score? It is understood the NFL classifies the TD as an offensive TD, but in Fantasy Football Land, the Special Teams was on the field at the time of the successful fake.
DAN BRADY [WINTER HAVEN, FL]
A:
You’ll have to look at your league rule book. If it calls for points to be awarded for fake field goals, or “when the special teams unit is one the field,” then I think you score it. In leagues where I am the commissioner, I clearly rule out such plays, because of the gray area you wade into when trying to define them. Consider the 41-yard touchdown run by Montell Owens of Jacksonville last year. Does that count as a fake punt? The Texans clearly thought a punt was coming, as the Jaguars shuffled a bunch of new players onto the field. And they lined up in a formation with kind of a punt look. But I don’t believe the Jaguars’ punter was actually on the field. So you can see how those things start to get murky.
Question 5:
Is Matt Forte's very slow start simply a function of facing two stout defensive fronts in Green Bay and Pittsburgh and nothing that Seattle and Detroit won't cure, or should I be pressing the panic button as I look an 0-2 start in the face?
Jerry Leonard [Swartz Creek, MI]
A:
The running game has been a little off for the Bears, but I think Forte’s lack of production is more related to scheduling. He’ll take a step in the right direction this week against the Seahawks, and then I believe Forte will be very good at home against the Lions in week 4. Lovie Smith says he considers getting the running game going to be a top priority.
Question 6:
Why aren't the Pats and Tom Brady throwing the ball down the field? Every down is a quick hit to no more than 7 yards out. Is the line too weak? Is the new offensive coordinator scared? Is Brady afraid to risk his leg? I'm afraid I made a huge mistake taking Brady over Brees. Talk me down from the ledge.
Scott Lommers [Corvallis, OR]
A:
I don’t think there’s anybody right now who wouldn’t take Drew Brees before Tom Brady. Brees looks like he’s going to throw more than 40 TDs. Brady looks like he might not even throw 30. Pass rushers are getting to him, and it appears to be throwing off his confidence and timing. The offensive line seems to have declined. And rust is no doubt a factor as well – he’s missed some open throws in both of his games. But I expect Brady to settle down and at least be a top-4 quarterback. Much of his troubles on Sunday can be attributed to the Jets playing a great defensive game – they’ve got a good scheme.
Question 7:
I know it’s early and I know he rushed for 104 yards Sunday, but can we at least agree that most fantasy analysts vastly overrated Steven Jackson yet again? After a terrific 2006 season, we all thought Jackson was destined to be the No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts for years to come. But nagging injuries and the Rams’ inept offense have made him a very ordinary player for going on three years now. He fell to the second round in my draft, and I ended up with him -- even though my gut told me he couldn't be special on such a pathetic team. So far, that's exactly how it's playing out. I think fantasy analysts are ranking Jackson based more on his potential than on what he has actually accomplished since 2007.
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
I wouldn’t say Jackson was an “ordinary player” last year. He averaged 118 yards per game – more than any other running back. He did miss the four games, of course, but with 118 yards per game and 8 TDs in 12 starts, he was a top-3 back in typical scoring systems when you adjust the numbers to account for missed games. He’s a great player. I will agree that he so far hasn’t been as effective as I expected. I thought Jackson would be helped more by the additions the Rams have made to their offensive line. Tackle Jason Smith isn’t giving them anything yet.
Question 8:
I've got Kurt Warner as my starting QB. His numbers are OK, but when I've watched him play, he looks like he's physically on the verge of breaking down. It makes me nervous, and makes me want to have a strong backup. Right now that backup is Joe Flacco, whose numbers have been better than Warner's. Do you think he will keep doing as well as he has the first 2 weeks? Should he be my starter? Or should I look to trade one of them, maybe get a deal out of Flacco's high stock or from someone who hasn't been noticing Warner hobbling around the field?
Nathan Zanon [San Jose, CA]
A:
I think Flacco is for real. I wouldn’t move him. He’s a great No. 2 to have in your back pocket. I imagine there will be weeks where you opt to use Flacco as your starter, and you’ll probably need him as an injury fill-in at some point.
Question 9:
Crazy start to the season. First off is this going to be the usual NE thing with the Welker mystery? I can't move him or another WR because not knowing his status screws me.
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
Welker plays for an East Coast team, so most of his games (including his next two), have early kickoff times. So you should, without much effort, be able to determine prior to any games starting whether he’ll play. They placed him on their inactive list prior to the kickoff of their game against the Jets. If Welker is active, start him. If they include him among their inactives, then you could plug Julian Edelman into that role and get similar type of production.
Question 10:
I'm in a very deep league (90 wide receivers) and I need help at WR. Do you see Kelley Washington, Jabar Gaffney, Mike Wallace, or Legedu Naanee helping me occasionally? My other option is to stick with Sammie Stroughter.
Paul Bakalars [LA CRESCENT, MN]
A:
What are the Chargers doing? Why haven’t they benched (or simply released) Chris Chambers. They’ve thrown him 11 passes this year. He’s caught only 2 of them. I think both Naanee and Malcom Floyd are better receivers. Naanee played a big role in the come-from-behind win at Oakland. At some point this year, I think, Naanee will move ahead of Chambers. When that happens, you’ll want to be holding Naanee rather than Sammie Stroughter.
Question 11:
I'm pretty set at RB with Steven Jackson and Chris Johnson but weak at WR. McGahee is my No. 3 back and Ahmad Bradshaw No. 4. Do you see McGahee as a good "sell high" candidate right now so I can solidify may WRs?
David Livingston [BURLINGTON, KS]
A:
I think McGahee has substantial value in a TD-only format. He’ll score almost all of Baltimore’s 1- and 2-yard rushing touchdowns, and as I illustrated last week, about half of all rushing touchdowns come from inside the 3. That’s a good team, so McGahee could be this year’s LenDale White, punching in a dozen touchdowns. His value, I think, decreases when you start counting yards and receptions. I expect Ray Rice to be more productive in those areas. With there being a whole bunch of good, emerging no-name wide receivers right now, I would probably be inclined to hang onto McGahee – use him in favorable matchups like the one he has this week – and fill those wide receiver holes via the waiver wire.
Question 12:
Is now the time to get rid of Ray Rice before this gets worse? It seems like the Baltimore running back situation is shaping up like last year, where they go with the hot hand approach. He doesn't look like the every week starter I was planning for him to be preseason. What do you think?
Dan Bridy [UPPER DARBY, PA]
A:
I’d hang with him for now. He could still be very good. I expect him to get more involved as a pass catcher. And I believe he’ll score some touchdowns from outside the 3-yard line, both as a runner and a receiver.
Question 13:
What time of day does the redrafter typically get delivered? And what time of day on Thursday can we routinely expect a given week's rankings?
Troy Hopper [MOORESTOWN, NJ]
A:
I expect I’ll finish the redrafter on most weeks by 3 pm EDT on Tuesday. It should show up on the website before 4. That is the revised overall board – as if you were walking into a start-from-scratch draft. The Fantasy Index Weekly, which previews the weeks games (with rankings for just that week) should be finished each week by about 3:30 EDT. Again, should show up online within an hour afterwards.
Question 14:
I have been offered the following trade (in a league where we assign contracts to players after drafting them): I get Big Ben thru 2011, and DeAngelo Williams for 2009; I give up Philip Rivers for 2009 and Cedric Benson thru 2010. I'm inclined to accept based on a "sell high" for Benson.
ADAM HOLTZ [ROCHESTER, MN]
A:
I don’t consider Benson to be a “sell high” player. He’s a good back. I expect him to be productive there all season. He’s got the four games left against the Ravens and Steelers, which is a concern, but I like Benson. I don’t like him nearly as much as DeAngelo Williams, but I’m not going to anger Bengals fans by dissing Benson. The key issue here, in my eyes, is Roethlisberger vs. Rivers. San Diego runs more of a wide-open scheme, so I think Rivers will be more productive. And I see him as far less likely to get injured. With the way Roethlisberger hangs onto the ball and takes sacks, it seems like only a matter of time before he gets hurt. I don’t care how big and tough he is; I put him in the same boat at Daunte Culpepper, who was seemingly indestructible until blowing out his knee in Charlotte in 2005. But as part of this deal, Roethlisberger’s contract runs through 2011, so you get him for two more years than Rivers. When you add in that factor, my instincts tell me to make the deal.
Question 15:
I have been offered the following trade. I would trade Lee Evans for a 2nd-round pick. My WRs are as follows: Calvin Johnson, Ochocinco, Lee Evans, Chaz Schilens, Legedu Naanee. I am looking to pick up Mike Sims-Walker from Jacksonville. My question is does this weaken my team to much?
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
I’m tired of waiting for Trent Edwards and Lee Evans to hit it off. Edwards just doesn’t throw deep. I don’t think it will ever happen. I would just make the deal, take the second-round pick and be done with him. By the end of the year, Sims-Walker might have better numbers.
Question 16:
Seems like some of the mob wants your head after one week. By season's end they will see that you hit on far more than you missed on, just like always. In a non-PPR yardage league we must roster exactly 4 RBs. Mine are Jacobs, Rice, Bradshaw, and Leon Washington. Moreno was waived last week. Which back, if any, should I drop to add Moreno?
Billy LeRoy [YUMA, AZ]
A:
That’s a hair-puller. Moreno has some upside. The Broncos want to get him on the field – he had 17 carries last week – and it’s only a matter of time before he moves ahead of Correll Buckhalter. But he definitely comes in behind Jacobs and Rice. And it makes an awful lot of sense to hand onto Bradshaw, since you’ll need him when Jacobs gets banged up and misses a few games. So I guess is comes down to Moreno or Washington. I’ve actually got Washington a little higher on my board; he’ll score 1-2 TDs on kickoff returns, and he catches a lot of passes. Moreno won’t be a factor as a receiver this year, and I think the Broncos will continue to use Peyton Hillis in goal-line situations. So I guess I would stand pat. Unless you can make a two-for-one trade to get rid of one of those other backs, I don’t think you have room for him.
Question 17:
As referenced in the 9/11 mailbag, I ended up with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as my QBs (its a PPR league). I have just been offered Slaton and Hester for Manning and Fred Jackson (I also have Marshawn Lynch). I want to make sure I am getting the best value for one of my QBs- I have a pretty solid team and have even considered keeping both for the entire season. Should I make this trade? What do you project for the Buffalo backfield once Lynch comes back week 4?
ZACH LEAVITT [ENGLEWOOD, CO]
A:
Looks like a good deal to me. Steve Slaton should come around – probably starting this weekend against Jacksonville. And with his pass-catching skills, he’s very good in a PPR format. And the perfect time to unload Jackson. I expect the Bills will go with a committee approach the rest of the way, with Lynch getting maybe 55-60 percent of the work.
Question 18:
I have a co-worker who plays in a peculiar league format - each team plays 2 games against 2 opponents each week. He tells me that after week 2, he is 0-4, but says that because of the "2 games per week" format that he is better suited to rebound and contend for a playoff spot than if he were 0-2 in a traditional format. I reckon myself a reasonable numbers guy, so I thought about it, and it seems to me like his league format actually makes it *harder* to come back, given that more games tends to make "excellent" records less likely (i.e. 14-2 in football is a good record, but the mathematical equivalent in baseball - 140 wins - is nearly impossible). I'm wondering if you can "run the numbers" on this idea, and comment on that style of scheduling in a fantasy league.
ADAM HOLTZ [ROCHESTER, MN]
A:
I like the double game format. It reduces luck. Think about it. If each team plays only one game, it’s more likely that a lesser team makes the playoffs – maybe it benefits from scheduling and goes 9-5. As you add more games, that becomes less likely. If every team plays every other team every week, then you start to see the cream rise. The best teams at the end of the year will have records along the lines of 123-31-0. In one of my own leagues, we almost expanded from 12 teams to 14. Had we gone the 14-team route, I would have proposed that each team play a 26-game schedule, playing each opponent twice during a 13-week schedule. I like it – it’s a step that reduces some luck. As far as the actual math behind the probability that a team will rally from being down 0-2 or down 0-4, I’m not sure. My gut tells me that it would be better to be 0-2 in a single-play league. I know that 0-2 in a single play is better than 0-22 in an all-play. But if this guy is confident that he’s got a good team, I’m sure he’s not too worried about turning things around.
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Question 1: I have a question related...
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Sep. 25 at 12:56 AM
I'm not sure that I understand why everyone is so up-in-arms about this. When R. Bush lines up at WR at catches a pass, we don't ask if that counts since he is slotted as an RB. When D. Jackson returns a punt for TD, he gets 6 points (in every league I've ever seen) as a WR. What's the difference? Certainly, the fact that this is new makes it worth asking. But, that's part of the appeal of drafting player with ability: the opportunity to score points at multiple positions. Bottom line: make life easy (fantasy football can cause enough headaches) -- wherever the NFL lists him, use him in fantasy football. Everyone has equal access to information and to players, so no one has an advantage. Just more strategy to consider.
Question 1: I have a question related...
Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Sep. 25 at 12:57 AM
Just to clarify: so, for a Team QB, R. Brown is NOT a QB. (The only exception would be if an emergency QB, otherwise a position player, had to come in and take over.)
Question 1: I have a question related...
Posted by Keith Swiniarski | Sep. 26 at 05:52 AM
Bush at a WR is different...you have the player, not the New Orleans Team RB. And actually if DeSean Jackson returns a punt it generally goes to Team D/ST (rules do vary but this is fairly standard from what I have seen)...the question I submitted came in the context of a Team QB scoring, because the the idea in our league if Ronnie Brown retunred a punt or kickoff it would go to Team D/ST (I realize he doesn't normally do receive them, but just for argument) so why wouldn't he be the Team QB if the actual QB was off the field and he received the snap....I just think using a Team QB scoring system is flawed and was trying to point out some inconsistencies (a.k.a Vick/McNabb)...just have the QB as the player, rather than take credit for the whole roster position....
Question 1: I have a question related...
Posted by BRIAN LASKIEWICZ | Sep. 26 at 06:27 AM
Several things there: (1) Remember that the "Team QB" rule was designed to protect teams against their starting QBs going down to injury and having to pick up the backups before another owner did. Therefore, a "team QB" consists of all the players listed as QB on NFL team roster (like Montana, Young, Bono back in the SF dynasty years). (2) Depending on a league's rulebook (knowing that there are some exceptions out there), a player receives credit for his incurred performances regardless of position. That makes a scrmabling QB potentially valuable for rushing yards and TD scores. It also adds a twist for the RB who occasionally throws a TD on a halfback option (LT at times), or RB/WR who is a multiple threat (pass-catching RBs, WR who runs reverses, or RB/WR who returns punts and/or kickoffs - R Bush, J Galloway many years back). (3) Therefore, unless a league actually makes some unique exceptions or actually designates a Wildcat player as a QB in its own league (like a league voting to make Ronnie Brown a QB, for example), it is pretty clear that this should not otherwise be an issue. if anything, it may possibly enahce the value of a Wildcat RB or WR like Ronnie Brown (depending on how many other stats / touches of the ball are incurred). (4) The fact that this does somehow cause confusion serves a good argument for a league to not adopt any "Team" positions, no Team QBs, no Team defenses/special teams (consider the punt return by a R Bush-type player; count only for D/ST, or also for R Bush, or what about fake field goals), providing ammunition to argue for individual QBs or IDP/no defense at all.
Question 1: I have a question related...
Posted by GREG HOULETTE | Oct. 01 at 04:27 PM
Thanks again to you guys I have drafted another quality team. We are 3-0 starting out but when I drafted I didn't notice that R.Moss and Ochocinco have byes in week 8. I am in a 10 team yardage+TD league. My team is Brees, McNabb, Forte, Benson, Grant, J.Jones, R.Rice, Moss, Ochocinco, Mason, A.Gonzalez and D.Clark. Do you think I am ok to hang tight with A.Gonzalez and hope he can play in week 8 or should I look for another option? Thanks again for your expert help this year!!!
Question 2: I'm curious about your prognosis...
Posted by ERIC DEGERMAN | Sep. 29 at 01:37 AM
Greetings Ian, This summer, I came across some research indicating that defenses/special teams ranking among the best in rushing defense after Week 3 can serve as a harbinger of strong performance for the rest of the season. The Dolphins are not forcing turnovers, but they rank No. 3 in rushing defense. The Saints aren't far back at No. 5, but they appear much more opportunistic. I drafted Miami, but New Orleans is available on the waiver wire. Which D/ST unit would be better for me to own for the final 13 weeks? Our scoring system includes sacks, turnovers, yardage allowed, points allowed, blocked kicks and return yardage. My primary play for the first three weeks was Minnesota, and with Percy Harvin returning kicks, I think that I should hang onto the Vikings. Sincerely, Eric Degerman Richland, Wash.
Question 12: Is now the time to...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Sep. 25 at 02:27 AM
On Ray Rice, I think you need to hang onto him just because his value is too low right now to get a decent trade for him. If you definitely don't want to deal with the Ravens backs, which I can understand, wait until a week he puts up 120 total yards and scores -- might be this week, actually -- and then see what kind of a deal you can get.
Question 12: Is now the time to...
Posted by PARAS SHAH | Sep. 27 at 03:35 AM
concede that you were wrong about Ray Rice? I know you are now taking the angle that he will be more productive in a PPR, etc. However, upon entering the first game of the season you had me convinced that Rice was the man. I am sure there are a ton of subscribers being hurt by taking him over other RB's as per your draft list.
Question 12: Is now the time to...
Posted by Jose Montana | Sep. 30 at 04:51 AM
It certainly looks like Willis McGahee DOES seem to have it anymore. Hell, Rice won't even get the long TDs, as evidenced by Willis' 7- and 15-yard romps this weekend. As for the 9/29 redrafter: there are 70 running backs you'd rather have than Tashard Choice in a PPR league? Really?
Question 18: I have a co-worker who...
Posted by Mark Kroes | Sep. 25 at 01:32 AM
Our 10 team league awards the top 5 scoring teams for each week a win, and the bottom 5 teams a loss. Works great. Waters down the team to team competition a little bit, but it puts the best teams in the playoffs.