Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Oct. 02 at 03:26 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I am in a deep league where almost every QB is owned. I currently have a couple of roster spots that I would like to use a speculative pick up on. What backup QB would be the best if the starter went down. Some backups such as Kolb are already owned so a rather long list in order of your preference would be appreciated.
chris holland [, ]
A:
I think you have to balance the upside of the backup versus the probability he’ll actually get on the field. So the top backups, I think would be Matt Leinart, Rex Grossman, Charlie Batch and Seneca Wallace. Maybe Matt Flynn of the Packers (I like his chances of getting on the field, but I’m not sure how well he’d play). Those are the five guys I’d be looking at.
Question 2:
Can you explain your redrafter? You have Tashard Choice ranked #70! Really? Look at the deadbeats you have him ranked behind. With the perpetually-injured Felix Jones and Marion Barber, this ranking is ridiculous. He looked incredible on Monday night. Admittedly it was against the Panthers, but this guy could spend the majority of the year in a RBBC with two gimpy RBs. If both Barber and F. Jones go down, he could be a top 20 RB easily, maybe higher. Rankings like this really make me doubt the usefulness of "the redrafter".
David Krug [OVERLAND PARK, KS]
A:
I like Choice. I agree he’ll be very productive if both Jones and Barber get hurt. And if both of those guys get hurt at the same time, then I definitely will wish I had ranked Choice higher. But what if there are no games where both Barber and Jones are hurt? Under that scenario, than Choice will have essentially no value. So when you weigh the pros, cons and probabilities, I tend to think you’re better off going for a running back who needs just one injury to get into the starting lineup. That’s why I have Choice behind some guys like Bernard Scott and Rashard Mendenhall. They need only one injury to get into the starting lineup. He needs two.
Question 3:
Need your opinion on Anthony Gonzalez. Is he worth hanging on to? It's looking like he'll be back after Week 6, but how effective are WRs coming back from that type of injury? I'm thinking of cutting him so I can pick up someone who can help me now. Burleson, D. Henderson, V. Davis, and Garcon are all available. I'm concerned that I'm wasting a roster spot with someone who's not going to be that effective when he returns, but I'm afraid to cut him because he might be just fine, and I like the matchups in weeks 14-16 (playoff time). WWID?
DARREL OWEN [SACRAMENTO, CA]
A:
If Gonzalez is right physically, he’ll be an impact guy. Garcon right now is showing the potential of that position in that offense, scoring the last two weeks. With Gonzalez, you’ll see the same kind of scoring but also more receptions. If he’s healthy. If you can withstand the cost of hanging onto him, I advise you to do so.
Question 4:
Please stop with the Aaron Rodgers is going to the Hall of Fame projections. In the last redrafter how can you have Rodgers out producing Peyton Manning on a per game basis rest of year? With Chad Clifton out, this team may have one of the worst offensive lines in the past ten years of entire league. No QB can expect to be anything better than below average given less than a second to pass.
Brian Pedersen [PARK RIDGE, IL]
A:
I think Rodgers will be very good. I agree that health is a concern. The offensive line isn’t great, and that’s compounded by Rodgers having a tendency to hang onto the ball. He’s getting hit too often, so it will be hard for him to stay healthy. I would be nervous about using Rodgers this week, for example, with Jared Allen probably getting into the backfield often.
Question 5:
Wondering how you can possibly have Brady Quinn ranked higher than Derek Anderson for week 4 given the circumstances?
Scott Hamilton [Woodstock, IL]
A:
That’s a typo. Apologies. I run the numbers through a big database. I failed to update the deal to have those starter numbers run through Anderson. In my system, I’m projecting team totals (pass yards, pass TDs, run yards, run TDs), then there are percentage triggers inside each team that allocate where that production goes. I failed to update the Anderson/Quinn area to change that flow. The passing numbers themselves, however, are accurate (so Anderson goes where Quinn is listed). And the numbers for all of Cleveland’s other players – Braylon Edwards, Jamal Lewis, Jerome Harrison, James Davis – have been updated and are accurate. I tweaked Edwards’ percentage up to account for Anderson being more likely to throw downfield. I will correct the Quinn-Anderson numbers for the revised numbers that are posted to the database on Friday afternoon.
Question 6:
What do you see for Pierre Garcon? I know the return of Anthony Gonzalez will hurt his playing time, but he's looked pretty good for two weeks now.
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
Garcon definitely has value. Peyton Manning is in a zone right now, and the Colts have two highly favorable matchups coming up on the docket. The Seahawks ranked last in pass defense last year, and the Titans have allowed a pair of 300-yard passers already. So Garcon has at least a couple more starts left in him. Within a week or so, we should find out if Gonzalez will be ready to return in week 7 after the team’s bye.
Question 7:
This one may not be as obvious as it seems. I was offered a blockbuster trade by one of the greatest sell-high guys I've ever known. He offered Chris Johnson, Tony Gonzalez, and DeSean FOR Calvin Johnson, Pierre Thomas, and Shiancoe. I know Tony G is an upgrade over Shiancoe. But now that CJ has his career game out of the way and I believe Pierre is ready to reclaim his job, is the difference between he and Pierre Thomas enough for me to downgrade from Calvin to DeSean?
Paul Karwatka [SAINT JOHN, IN]
A:
Gonzalez will outproduce Shiancoe. We all agree on that. I think DeSean Jackson might be better than Calvin Johnson. Jackson certainly plays for a far better team, and he keeps scoring long touchdowns every week. And I would rather have Johnson than take on Pierre Thomas’ injury issues. Granted, Thomas look very good in the Buffalo game, and the Saints look like they’re going to put up a ton of points this year. But can he stay healthy? And even if healthy, will he be better than Johnson. I’ve been very impressed with Johnson; he seems to have elevated his game in his second season, and they’re using him more. He had the three long touchdowns against Houston, of course, but he also ran very well against both the Steelers and Jets – two of the best run defenses in the league. He’s got a 30-plus yard run in every game this year. So I would make the deal.
Question 8:
I was offered Brady and Hester for Schaub and Manningham. A no-brainer 2 weeks ago. But now I'm not so sure Schaub's last two weeks are fool's gold. I'm starting to think he's a top 3 producer at the position. Crazy of me?
Tom Duggan [CALIFON, NJ]
A:
I would take Brady and Hester. Definitely. I think Brady will turn it around, and I like Hester more than Manningham.
Question 9:
What do I do with Larry Fitzgerald? Not time to panic. Warner looks like an accident waiting to happen. Would you start to look to move Fitzgerald, and if so what WR is a guy that I should be targeting for him other than Moss (who I already have) or what package of players should I look for. This is a PPR league.
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
I don’t see any reason to move Fitzgerald. I think he’ll be an elite receiver, even if the Cardinals wind up using Leinart for a chunk of games.
Question 10:
I'm in a milestone league where rushing TDs are worth 6 pts and 100 yards rushing is worth 3 pts. I have Turner on the bye this week and was considering starting both Willis McGahee and Ray Rice. My best other options would be Willie Parker and Donald Brown. Would you roll with the Ravens backfield or stick in Parker or Brown for Rice?
NICK FRITZ [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
If Parker is playing, I think he’ll be your best back. He played pretty well last week, and the San Diego defense is struggling against the run. They lost nose tackle Jamal Williams, and they’re getting pushed around up front. Parker ran for 146 yards against a better San Diego defense in the playoffs last year. But Parker is dealing with a turf toe injury. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so I think he’ll sit. We’ll have to wait until the end of the week before we know for sure, but I don’t think he’ll play. That being the case, I think the best bet is to play both of the Baltimore backs. Donald Brown, though, wouldn’t be far behind. Brown isn’t as good as those guys, but he’s got a much better matchup. If Brown hits one long run against Seattle – which is a possibility – he will probably outperform both of those guys.
Question 11:
I picked up Hank Baskett a couple weeks ago and am thinking about dropping him for Lance Moore. What do you think? My three regulars are Moss, Wayne and Sims-Walker.
DARRELL PRESTELLA [CARSON CITY, NV]
A:
I don’t think Baskett is worth a roster spot. Moore holds more value. There are probably many other free agents available who are better than Baskett as well.
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Question 3: Need your opinion on Anthony...
Posted by Jered Ottenwess | Oct. 02 at 04:11 AM
Quote from Ian, 9-17 Mailbag RE Pierre Garcon: "Maybe he develops into somebody good enough to toss into a lineup a couple of times, but I doubt it. Hardly even worth putting on a roster in most fantasy formats, I think." How did you miss that one - he's a starting WR on the Colts? Isn't that alone worthy of a roster spot?
Question 3: Need your opinion on Anthony...
Posted by BRAD MARTINEZ | Oct. 02 at 05:57 AM
In response to the other commenter: Then why didn't you call him out on it then? Why wait until now, since you were so sure that Garcon would be great?
Question 3: Need your opinion on Anthony...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Oct. 03 at 02:20 AM
I agree with Jered. I should have been higher on Pierre Garcon. Anytime you have a player on a good passing team, it makes sense to bring him in for a looksie -- see if he develops into something. In this particular case, I wasn't sure Garcon was going to be any better than Austin Collie (they were similar in that first game, after Gonzalez went down). And I had concerns about the Colts in general -- they didn't look very good in that first game against the Jaguars. I still see that as a fragile-type team. The defense isn't good enough; the offensive line isn't good enough. But I was wrong on Garcon.
Question 3: Need your opinion on Anthony...
Posted by JOHN HAGENMAIER | Oct. 04 at 02:00 PM
Forget Garcon, COFFEE?? COFFEE??? #1 RB this week you rated him, and 0 TDs.
Question 4: Please stop with the Aaron...
Posted by Todd Weigel | Oct. 02 at 06:46 PM
To the guy complaining about Aaron Rodgers' offensive line, don't forget he has very good mobility. He gets a ton of points by scrambling to buy time, throwing on the run, or running for yards and TDs. The extra risk that comes from taking more hits is his only weakness.
Question 4: Please stop with the Aaron...
Posted by Brian Pedersen | Oct. 05 at 01:22 PM
I have watched a lot of football in my life and the Packers o-line in one of the ten worst I have seen. Not sure if you are watching him take on the Vikings but I wouldn't touch Rodgers as one of my top 10 QBs at this point. The team is giving up an average of 6 sacks per game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Question 9: What do I do with...
Posted by Jared Cravy | Oct. 02 at 08:54 AM
McGahee is proving he's no joke, he's busted decent runs every game thus far, and I learned after week 1 it'd be best to start him alongside RR than let him put up major bench points. Also, after watching two of the three Cardinals games this year, I'm beginning to lose all faith in Kurt Warner. Half the time he misreads coverage or gets hit, the other half he's making terrible throws. While the getting hit may not necessarily be his fault, the other parts are. I think it's obvious he's holding the Card's as a whole back, and is a detriment to every ones fantasy value, except of course, Tim Hightower, who's only real value is in Warner's hesitation to throw the ball downfield.