Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Oct. 16 at 12:27 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I went with the strategy of drafting a good QB and two star receivers with my top three picks. I chose Tom Brady, Randy Moss, and Steve Smith (Carolina). I'm set, right? Oops! Teams are continually double-teaming Moss and Smith, the run games for both teams are doing nothing to get that safety off of them, and when they are open, Brady and Delhomme are having a QB challenge with JaMarcus Russell of who can be the least accurate quarterback. Surprisingly, I'm 2-3. After what you've seen in five weeks, do I have a chance to salvage this season or should I waive the white flag and actually do something productive on Sundays?
Cody Hager [ALOHA, OR]
A:
I think it’s too early to push the panic button on those guys. All have been disappointments, but all could still turn things around. In New England, I think Brady just needs a few more weeks to knock off the rust and get his confidence back. I think he’ll get better, and that will go hand-in-hand with Moss putting up better numbers. Every New England game I see, Brady misses Moss on a long touchdown. I think they’ll start hitting those, and the beginning of the turnaround could start on Sunday. The Patriots are at home, and they’re playing a Tennessee defense that’s the worst in the league against the pass right now. The Titans likely will be without four of their top five defensive backs. I’m less confident with Smith (I don’t think he’s even the best Steve Smith in the league anymore). But he’s still a player who should catch 40-plus percent of his team’s touchdown passes. He also has an ideal matchup this week; the Bucs have allowed more long touchdowns than any other team in the league.
Question 2:
So what on earth happened with DeAngelo Williams? Every year the Fantasy Index likes to reach for one player, I suppose to distinguish themselves from the crowd, and rarely gets it right. Somehow I fell for it again and end up with your No. 1 back, DeAngelo Williams. He is barely a top 30 back, useless. I didn't pass up Adrian Peterson for him, like you guys would have, but it has ruined my fantasy team anyway. Any explanation?
Steven Maerz [MADISON, WI]
A:
I don’t think you can call Williams a reach. We’re talking about a guy who scored 20 TDs last year, and he’s running behind the same offensive line. Jonathan Stewart is there, which is a concern, but Stewart didn’t play or even practice all of August – I remember that helping to nudge Williams past those other players on my final board. I’m not sure why he hasn’t been better, and I think he could still be a very productive player going forward. I also don’t think it’s fair to say that he my “No. 1 back”. All through August, I said that I saw very little difference between the top backs. Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte and Williams were all No. 1 at running back on at least one scoring system during August (among the three major ones we project). All along, my advice was to trade down. For those holding Williams (including myself in one league), they’ll have to hope he can turn things around. He gets a shot on Sunday against a very weak Tampa Bay defense.
Question 3:
Having a hard time. I have kept DeAngelo Williams in my lineup except for week 4 and he continues to disappoint me. I'm even thinking of starting Ray Rice this week vs. MIN in a PPR league. I believe Rice will catch 6 passes or so and might get 60 yds on the ground and another 60 in the air. Can I really trust DeAngelo even against a poor run defense? I have read the weekly rankings sheet, but still leaning towards starting Rice.
Marco Tavares [BILLERICA, MA]
A:
It’s an interesting issue. With good pass-catching running backs – guys like Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew and Brian Westbrook – they can be just as productive in games against tough run defenses (at least in a PPR format). Their rushing numbers aren’t as good, of course, but they tend to catch more passes. Looking at just receiving, I’m sure Rice will be better. The Ravens will use him to slow down Minnesota’s pass rush. So I could see him catch 6-8 balls in this game. For the season (with each guy having played five games), Rice holds a 23-11 edge in catches, or about 5-2 per game. And the difference should be more pronounced in this game. Carolina is at Tampa Bay, where it should be able to run the ball effectively (meaning fewer short flips to Williams). So for this game, I think it makes sense to project Rice to finish with 4-5 more catches and 30 more receiving yards than Williams. So give him a 7-point head start in your PPR league. Can Williams make that up on the ground? Maybe. I think Williams will run for 70-110 yards in this game, while Rice might be down around 30-50. And Williams definitely is far more likely to score; the Ravens don’t use Rice in goal-line situations, and their offense has a much harder matchup. When you add up all of the different stats, I believe Williams is the better option. Because of this letter, however, I’m going to go back and re-allocate the passes in my Baltimore forecast (more balls going to Rice, and fewer to the wide receivers). And that will cause Rice to gain some ground on Williams. If you want to go the safe route and start Rice, collecting those dumpoff passes, I will understand. But I’m rolling with Williams.
Question 4:
I am a big fan of your magazine and will continue to buy your updated cheat sheet before my drafts. However I feel like you let me down this year. I had to chance to pick up Ronnie Brown with my second pick in a 16-team PPR league and passed over him to take T.J. Houshmandzadeh who was your highest-rated player at that pick. Also sticking to your rankings, I didn’t get any of the late guys like Steve Smith who are doing really well. I look back at Brown’s numbers when he played the last few years and he was really good. It seems you get down on a guy and miss out on their potential. I am 1-4 and it looks bad for me so I have to vent
VERNON JONES [OLNEY, MD]
A:
I was wrong on Brown. I thought Miami would be hurt by playing a harder schedule. I also figured the success of the Wildcat would fade. In analyzing Brown, I also say that last year, after that one big game at New England, he was very similar in value to Ricky Williams. I also had concerns about Pat White replacing Brown on a lot of the Wildcat packages. All of those reasons, I thought, were sound. It just hasn’t worked out.
Question 5:
I've been offered Schaub and Peterson for Brees and Benson. I haven't responded to the offer and people are saying I'm crazy if I didn't take it. Am I crazy? Brees just finished a bye week and Benson is actually playing pretty good. Do I make this deal?
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
I’ll take Brees and Benson. Both are more durable. And if everyone stays healthy, I believe there’s a bigger difference between Brees and Schaub than between Peterson and Benson. The Saints have a very favorable schedule from this point going forward.
Question 6:
I'm always trying to look into the crystal ball and find the next fantasy diamond in the rough. That said, with Cedric Benson getting so many carries, what do you think of Bernard Scott as a possible deep sleeper with monstrous upside? I don't know much about him, is he any good?
sean haider [STOWE, VT]
A:
I thought he looked great in the preseason. A little on the small side, but explosive. He’s got some Charlie Garner in him. If Benson gets hurt, I think Scott will be a heck of a fill-in option. With the workload Benson is carrying right now, there’s a good chance he’ll get hurt at some point. So I believe the probabilities merit that Scott should be on a roster right now – if you wait until after the injury, then you have to out-fight all of the other teams in your league for him. I’ve got Scott in a couple of leagues that I’m in. It’s odd that the same school where Scott played last year, Abilene Christian, also has provided the NFL with perhaps the No. 1 sleeper rookie receiver – Johnny Knox of the Bears.
Question 7:
I'm considering a buy low/sell high deal. I've been offered Steven Jackson for Brandon Marshall. It's in a TD-only league, and it's also a flex spot, so depth isn't an issue. Do you think Jackson and the Rams can get anything going, or will Marshall be a better bet to score more TDs than him down the stretch?
JODY SMITH [LEAGUE CITY, TX]
A:
Jackson has talent. Do you realize he’s got more total yards at this point than Adrian Peterson? That’s remarkable, considering the lack of any supporting cast around him. On a better team, Jackson would be recognized as one of the league’s truly remarkable players. But in a TD-only format, I like players on good teams. The Rams have scored only 4 TDs all year, and they’ve all come on passes. So I’ll go Marshall over Jackson in a TD-only format.
Question 8:
Your weekly Anthony Gonzalez question. It seems to me you are souring on the prospect that Mr. Gonzalez will make an impact upon his return. I currently hold him in two leagues, but one league only has 14 roster spots. I'm not big on keeping 2 DST, but was able to pick up the Saints to go along with Minnesota. My receivers are Roddy White, Vincent Jackson and Mike Sims-Walker. We play 2 WRs with an additional flex player. To keep the Saints DST I have to either drop Gonzalez or Chester Taylor. Minnesota projects to play the 7th-hardest schedule from this point forward and the Saints project to play one of the three easiest. Plus it would be nice to keep the Saints, who are currently the 2nd highest scoring DST, off of someone else' team. Is Gonzalez going to help enough down the road to keep him or do I take the Saints DST and maybe pick him up later if possible?
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
I’m worried about Gonzalez. Jim Caldwell and Bill Polian make it sound like he’s not going to be ready when the Colts come back from their bye. And those other young receivers – Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie – are playing well. That decreases the need to rush Gonzalez back, and they should also continue to be involved after his return. My gut feeling, though, is to hang onto Gonzalez and let go of the New Orleans defense; I don’t like using an extra roster spot on a second defense.
Question 9:
In light of Maurice Jones-Drew's recent comments to the media, do you think that Del Rio will pull a "Sims-Walker" and deactivate MJD to make a point? on a scale of 1-10 (10 being "absolutely do it"), do you think MJD owners should handcuff Rashad Jennings this week just in case? Do you think Jennings or Greg Jones is the player who'll get the most reps if MJD is inactive?
IAN MORRIS [SANTA ROSA, CA]
A:
I don’t think there’s any chance Del Rio will bench Jones-Drew. Just the opposite, I think he’ll give him more carries, and Jones-Drew will have a big game against the Rams. If you want to take out an insurance policy, Jennings is the handcuff there.
Question 10:
I have Adrian Peterson, Cedric Benson and Tim Hightower at running back. Have been offered Larry Fitzgerald for Benson. Should I take it or keep rolling with strong RBs. My WRs are Steve Smith (Carolina), Santana Moss and Roy Williams.
Brian Brady [Vienna, WV]
A:
I would keep Benson. I believe he will outproduce Fitzgerald. And if you do the deal, it creates a hole you’ll have to will at running back. You wouldn’t really want to use Hightower every week, and if Peterson gets hurt, you’d really be in a bind.
Question 11:
Do you know how the TV contracts work with FOX and CBS, and who is ultimately responsible for what shows on the local affiliates? Our Portland station will not be showing Giants-Saints this Sunday morning, but rather a 1989 movie rerun! I shot off emails to the local programming address as well as FOX – still waiting for answers. Do you know of any reason why non-NFL markets would not be able to show two FOX and two CBS games every Sunday? I'm stymied! Thanks for any answers you or your staff might have.
ALAN CAMERON [LEBANON, OR]
A:
I don’t follow the television stuff closely. I believe that FOX and CBS alternate the doubleheader each week. FOX maybe has it on the odd weeks, and CBS takes the evens. Why they go this route, I’m not sure. Maybe the NFL wants to keep ratings up by not over saturating the market (and they need to keep some games so there’s a large enough package to sell for the Sunday Ticket deal). Or maybe the networks have calculated that it makes more sense financially to bid for the rights to fewer games, and that they can charge higher ad rates when they have that national game each week (with no competing game on the other network).
Question 12:
What is your take on Greg Jennings. I think that he is a buy-low candidate. I am considering trading for him and giving up my first round pick and Jeremy Maclin for him. What are your thoughts for the rest of the year.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
I like Jennings. I think he’ll play well against Detroit. But in a dynasty format, giving up Maclin and a first-round pick seems like an awfully steep price.
Question 13:
I'm in a 10 team PPR league. I need to trim my roster in order to make bye week replacements. Of these four RBs who do you project to be the least productive for the remaining part of the season. D. McFadden, C. Williams, L. Washington, and L. McCoy.
MIKE RADAKER [CLEARFIELD, PA]
A:
McFadden is hurt and really wasn’t doing anything before his injury. Plus he plays for maybe the worst team in the league. I think you could release him and get him back in a week or two if you want.
Question 14:
Long-time subscriber, thanks for all you do. Need your take on a possible trade. I give him Joseph Addai and Vincent Jackson for Knowshon Moreno and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Would you make that deal?
JIM WILLIAMS [ANTELOPE, CA]
A:
No, I’ve got Moreno as worth 19 more points than Addai – I think the Denver rookie is just starting to hit stride, and I worry about Addai’s durability. But I have Houshmandzadeh as worth about 35 fewer points than Jackson. Jackson has already had his bye, so he’ll play one more game.
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Question 1: I went with the strategy...
Posted by Jason Guzik | Oct. 21 at 10:24 PM
I was wondering if you could list the number of RED ZONE targets for wide receivers/TE's and RB's. Also, do you think Steve Smith(CAR)will rebound the second half of the season? Currently, he has been targeted 47 times in 5 games. If Carolina can run a more balanced attack, than I think Steve Smith should be just fine. Comments?
Question 2: So what on earth happened...
Posted by JOSH OBUSEK | Oct. 16 at 05:21 AM
Ian, I don't know how you stay so patient. Every week it's "I didn't think for myself, so it's your fault," as ssomeone blames his dismal season on you, like you held a gun to their head and demanded they take, or pass on, a player. You are the fantasy Buddha.
Question 2: So what on earth happened...
Posted by Rick Cwik | Oct. 21 at 06:07 AM
I agree with Josh. Ian, and the crew at FF Index, are just a very powerful source for us owners. Ultimately though, we are the ones who make the final choices. FF Index, to me, is the best source for info and common sense thinking among all the other Fantasy football sources out there. And while I agree with Ian about 80% of the time I ultimately hold myself responsible fo the picks I make.
Question 6: I'm always trying to look...
Posted by ROBERT JOHNSON | Oct. 20 at 02:08 PM
Based on lack of accumulated wear and tear, I believe Benson has a really good chance to play out the whole year.
Question 10: I have Adrian Peterson, Cedric...
Posted by Eugene Hitt | Oct. 16 at 12:48 AM
I can't believe you say "No" to this deal. Benson (and the Bengals) are playing way over there head and additionally they haven't seen there bye week yet. Don't the Cardinals play the easiest schedule in the fantasy playoffs bye far? You also say to roster Bernard Scott because of a Benson injury to come in another readers question. Isn't this the definition of "Sell High" to get a total stud like Fitzgerald?
Question 12: What is your take on...
Posted by CHARLES HENDERSHOT | Oct. 16 at 11:54 AM
I am confused why Roethlisberger so low on the QB Rankings. He is top 5 QB and going against Cleveland. I am looking to start him instead of Brees going against the Giants
Question 12: What is your take on...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Oct. 16 at 01:30 PM
I can't guarantee that Brees will outperform Roethlisberger. In the TD-only format, I have Roethlisberger one spot higher. But I think the Steelers will have success with the run against Cleveland, and this should help hold them maybe 60-80 yards below what they've been averaging in passing yards. That's why I've got Brees higher in the yards-TD format. But if you want to go ahead roll with Roethlisberger anyway, I'm cool with that.