Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Oct. 23 at 03:23 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Do you think Steve Smith of Carolina will rebound the second half of the season? Currently, he has been targeted 47 times in 5 games. That is still a good ratio despite the number of receptions.
Jason Guzik [HILTON, NY]
A:
I don’t think Smith is going to turn it around. I think the Panthers realize that Jake Delhomme doesn’t have it anymore, and that they’re going to try to rely on their ground game from this point going forward. They hammered the Bucs for 267 rushing yards last week. They beat up the Bills on the ground on Sunday. And maybe that can rekindle the kind of overpowering running game that led the team to a 13-3 record last season. So Smith, I think, won’t get the same kind of workload he’s seen in the past. And I don’t know that Delhomme really has the same ability to throw the ball downfield that he’s had in the past. Every time I’ve seen the Panthers play this year, they’ve thrown a few deep bombs to Smith, but I don’t recall any of those passes being even remotely catchable.
Question 2:
Nice work again this year. Loving the new mug as well. A question about your PK rankings. You have Elam ranked very high on the cheat sheet, but he's way down the board for this week's rankings. Last year in the latter stages of the season you did the same thing with the TEN PK. You had him ranked very high on the redrafter but never on the weekly. Any reason for this disparity? Can you enlighten me on the criteria you use for your PK rankings?
Brian Barrett [BOULDER, CO]
A:
For kickers, mostly I’m looking for guys on good teams. Any team that wins 11-12 games, if you look at the historical performances, tends to have a top-10 kicker. So if you boil it down to a week-to-week deal, teams that win tend to have the best kickers. I don’t have 2008 numbers handy (I don’t recall if I compiled them or not), but for the previous season, teams that won their games averaged about 9 kicking points per game. That projects out to 144 points in a 16-game season. Teams that lost their games averaged about 5 kicking points per game, which works out to 80 points per game. So with a guy like Elam, I like him when the Falcons are in a game where I am confident they will win. I am not as high on him when I think they’ll lose – and I think they’ll come up short in Dallas this week. Many fantasy leaguers like to just pick one kicker and go with him, figuring it’s a position of luck or of little significance. I prefer to switch kickers and play matchups, sometimes using up to 10 different kickers in a season, depending on how the teams and matchups play out.
Question 3:
This is my third year of subscribing to your service and I am quite happy with your products. Keep up the great work! I am, however, confused by how high you continue to rank the Miami Defense every week. They sure aren't scoring very well in our league! I've decided to drop them and go for Denver's defense.
Mike Gust [STILLWATER, MN]
A:
Denver’s defense looks great. I’m sold. I am shocked and surprised – I expected the Broncos to be a 5-11 type team, and a poor defense to be leading the way – but I’m on board now. I also think Miami’s defense will be very solid in the second half of the season. The Dolphins are very good against the run. They have a good pass rush, and I think they’re secondary is better than the numbers might suggest. Generally, the teams that finish with the most sacks tend to also finish well in interceptions, fumbles and defensive touchdowns. In the case of Miami, I think, it’s been held back by having to face a lot of good quarterbacks. Guys like Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan just don’t tend to give up sacks and interceptions. When the Dolphins play against lesser quarterbacks, I think you’ll see good production. Unfortunately for Miami, it has to play against another one of those top-level quarterbacks this weekend – Drew Brees. And the Dolphins also have a pair left against Tom Brady, who’s in that class.
Question 4:
Another RB situation this week. I guess we were both right last week with DeAngelo Williams and Ray Rice. Benson should have been the sit lol. This week I don't know if I have the guts to start DeAngelo Williams and Stewart together. My other option would be Benson or Maroney. I was thinking Maroney to get 100 yds plus a TD. FYI, we get 5-pt bonus for 100 yd games. I guess I don't have the guts to start the two RBs.
Marco Tavares [BILLERICA, MA]
A:
I think you’re loaded with good options. Carolina might run for something like 230 yards against the Bills, with 2-3 rushing touchdowns. I honestly believe that. So off the numbers, DeAngelo Williams is your top back, and Jonathan Stewart is also a possibility. I would be comfortable with those guys. But Laurence Maroney also has a choice matchup; you don’t get much better than going up against Tampa Bay. Cedric Benson is your best or second-best running back, but he’s got the worst matchup; the Bears did a real nice job on Michael Turner last week. On the flip side, Chicago just lost another linebacker, and you know Benson will be playing hard in that game. I guess you just go the George Bush route this week and go with your gut. Pick two guys and hope you’re right.
Question 5:
I see a lot of emails here each week about how your rankings failed people, but I have to say I'm 5-1 and winning in large measure because of your information. I'm in a PPR league and followed your advice, drafting WR with the first three picks — Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Wes Welker. In addition to dominating the passing game, I got Rice in round 5 and Benson in round 8 and am more than holding my own in the running game. I got Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler in middle rounds too, so they've been solid. My only mistakes were taking Reggie Bush in round 4 — he was probably ranked too high in the PPR cheat sheets — and Greg Olsen in round 6, because some of your August materials had him as a top-5 tight end for a while. Still, I grabbed Mason late in the draft and dealt him just today to a WR hungry team for Tony Gonzalez. Now I'm set.
L.B. Graham [WILDWOOD, MO]
A:
Thanks for the kind words. They’re appreciated. I don’t know what’s going on with Reggie Bush. He’s healthy, but they’re not using him in the passing game nearly as much as they have in the past. He’s averaged 42 receiving yards per game over the last three seasons. He’s not much of a runner, but that receiving production (at least in a PPR format) makes him a Ventnor or a Marvin Gardens type of player. But Bush has caught only 15 passes in five games this season; he’s down at 26 receiving yards per game. And his rushing production also is down. I don’t know why the Bears aren’t using Olsen more, but at least they’re looking to him down around the goal line – he’s scored three weeks in a row. As for the Gonzalez-Mason trade, I hope it works out for you. Gonzalez is a top tight end, but Mason is also a legit player -- the No. 1 receiver for an offense that is throwing the ball well. That could be a wash or a win-win trade.
Question 6:
I'm in an eight man league, looking for a third receiver for this week and possibly beyond. The best available are Hakeem Nicks, Sidney Rice, and Steve Breaston.
Eric Schmit [KEIZER, OR]
A:
I’ll go Breaston. He’s a good player. He actually has more receiving yards over the last four weeks, believe it or not, than either Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin. And with Boldin possibly sitting out this game with an ankle injury, Breaston should take on an even bigger role. Boldin missed four games last year. One was the blowout implosion at New England late in the year. In the other three, Breaston finished with 77, 91 and 102 yards, with 2 TDs in those three games.
Question 7:
PPR league. I have Adrian Peterson, Benson, Rice and Pierre Thomas. Need a No. 1 receiver, have Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall. Thinking about trading Adrian Peterson for Andre Johnson. Straight up.
DAVID STONER [LARGO, FL]
A:
I would take Johnson over Peterson in a heartbeat. PPR format; that’s the key. When you factor in the points for those 100-110 balls that Johnson is going to catch, it’s not even close. And you’ve got the flexibility to move Peterson because you still have three capable players at that position. I am always amazed how people overrate running backs in a PPR format. The guys at Fanex Football run an experts competition every year, with 12 guys drafting in May or June. I’ve done this league twice, and both years, I’ve loaded up on wide receivers and won the thing going away. It’s playing out in a similar way this year. I again stocked up on wide receivers early; most of the other experts again focused on running backs. And I’m leading after six weeks, even though Wes Welker was hurt early in the year and Anthony Gonzalez has a knee injury. I also haven’t gotten much out of Steve Smith, making this team less dominant than in the past, but the point is that you have to have a quality group of pass catchers. I recommend you add Johnson, and I recommend doing so before Peterson has to play at Pittsburgh this weekend.
Question 8:
I just traded for Michael Turner, and I have Roddy White as one starting receiver in a 16-team modified TD-only league (bonus for 100/200 yds). Do you think it's a problem to keep both from same team? Or should I try to trade one?
Jason Brater [ANN ARBOR, MI]
A:
I would love to have both Turner and White in a TD-only league. Those are the top two scoring threats on one of the league’s best teams. The Falcons will probably win 11-plus games. And every week that they score 3-4 TDs, you’ll have a real good chance at getting 2-3 TDs for your fantasy team.
Question 9:
I need some help in considering a potential trade in a TD-only league. I have been offered Roddy White and Brandon Jacobs for Randy Moss. At first, I thought it seemed like a no-brainer, especially since I am weak at RB (Mendenhall, Moreno, Mike Bell). But I also have Tom Brady and I am not sure I want to break up that connection. What are your thoughts?
Michael Howard [SAINT PAUL, MN]
A:
I’d stick with Moss. If the Patriots can get their offense heated up, that combo could lift your team to a championship. Moving down from Moss to White is definitely a downgrade. I don’t think the addition of Jacobs, is enough to get the deal done. (Jacobs does, however, have a couple of nice matchups in weeks 15-16, against Washington and Carolina).
Question 10:
I'm in a 16-team league. I was lucky enough to pick number one overall, where I took Adrian Peterson. My second and third picks were Ray Rice and Steve Smith. I was pumped about getting both guys. I was on the Rice bandwagon months before the draft and I felt like I got a steal in Smith at pick 33 overall. Obviously, they are going in different directions right now in terms of their fantasy seasons. I love what Rice is doing but do you think that he can keep it up? Is his play indicative of things to come or is it the perfect sell-high situation? Also, the similar yet opposite question applies to Smith. Can he possibly continue to put up these mediocre numbers? In my opinion, he is still one of the most gifted athletes in the league. I have some trade offers on the table that I like. After consulting the custom redrafter, the trades look pretty fair. Ray Rice and Steve Smith for Steven Jackson and Donald Driver. Also on the table is Ray Rice and Steve Smith for Joseph Addai and either Chad Ochocinco or Roddy White.
Christian Adams [VIRGINIA BEACH, VA]
A:
I think Rice is the real deal. I think he’ll continue to start there, and he’ll catch a lot of passes. I’m worried about Steve Smith; I don’t think the Panthers will get their passing game turned around. So it would be nice to move him. I looked at the projected stats and weighed the various offers. Rice-Smith for Driver-Jackson looks like a wash. Rice-Smith for Ochocinco-Addai is also a wash. It’s the Addai-White package where you pick up an extra 5 percent of production.
Question 11:
In a 12-team league with one flex, I have P.Manning, Jacobs, Benson, V.Jackson, Welker, Ochocinco, Olsen, Hightower and H.Miller. Where do you see me making an improvement? Should I stand pat or try and package Jacobs or Hightower and a WR for somebody? Every time I look at the list I have a hard time finding which guy to target.
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
I looks like a pretty good team to me. I’m always open to trades. Anytime somebody is willing to make a deal that makes my team better, I’m in. But I don’t think you’re in any need to necessarily make a move. Jacobs has underachieved so far, but he should come around. If you do opt for a trade, it probably should be something similar to what you mentioned – trading two of your guys to upgrade to a difference-maker type player.
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Question 1: Do you think Steve Smith...
Posted by JOHN MACHO | Oct. 23 at 08:09 AM
Just been offered "Riddick" Bowe for Steve Smith. Tough call! Not sure what to do. Defining players this year for FFI (I have them in most leagues following your advice) include D. Williams (jury out), C. Benson (win), R. Rice (win), Steve Smith (bust). Overall, good advice and insight, but ultimately, we owners make our own decisions.
Question 2: Nice work again this year....
Posted by Chris Muschon | Oct. 24 at 12:53 PM
Just wondering why you went with THAT senior picture instead of the far better, Jacket Over the Shoulder pose?