Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Nov. 06 at 02:09 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Please help my league resolve a scoring issue. We're in a TD-only league, that does not include team defenses or individual defensive players. This past weekend, Kevin Smith of the Lions tackled a player in the end zone for a safety. Since we don't typically have offensive players being involved in a safety, this is a new one for us. Does Kevin Smith actually get credited with 2 points in the official NFL stats? Or is it that the team is credited with the 2 points, with none awarded to an individual player? We're struggling with whether Smith should get those 2 points.
CHUCK DOUBEK [NORMANDY PARK, WA]
A:
Kevin Smith definitely scored 2 NFL points. If you look at the stats released by the Elias Sports Bureau (the NFL’s official statisticians), he currently shows with have 20 total points – 18 for his three touchdowns, and 2 for his safety. In your league, does Smith receive 6 points if he returns a kick for a touchdown or recovers a blocked punt in the end zone? Then I think it would naturally follow that he would also receive 2 points for a safety. Many leagues don’t allow double dipping (when Patrick Crayton returns a punt for a touchdown, those points go only to the Dallas special teams – not to Crayton). In those kind of leagues, the 2 points for the safety would go to the Detroit defense.
Question 2:
Thanks for the service. I am 8-0 this season and will clinch a first round bye in the playoffs with one more victory. We use a system with base yardage of 50 for running backs/wide receivers and one point for every 25 yards thereafter, plus one point per catch after 4. Based on that, who do you see as sleeper wide receivers and running backs in weeks 15 and 16?
SCOTT MACDONIELS [CHESTERFIELD, MO]
A:
In week 15, four teams should benefit from playing punching-bag opposition. Arizona (at Detroit), Seattle (Tampa Bay), Houston (at St. Louis) and Denver (Oakland). In week 16, you’re looking at Atlanta (Buffalo), Cincinnati (Kansas City), New Orleans (Tampa Bay), Arizona (St. Louis) and San Francisco (Detroit). Those are the teams that I would be looking to utilize in those two weeks. (Not that teams like the Colts and Patriots won’t put up their usual great numbers, but those other teams should post better than usual stats).
Question 3:
What backup RBs are likely to move or be promoted in the offseason to be starters?
ALEXANDER WELLS [KING OF PRUSSA, PA]
A:
In my opinion, the list of teams that might have new starting tailbacks on opening day next year includes the Patriots, Jets, Browns, Texans, Kansas City, San Diego, Eagles, Washington, Tampa Bay, Arizona and Seahawks. Ahmad Bradshaw will be a free agent; we’ll see where he lands. The Jets might move Thomas Jones, making a spot for Shonn Greene. Ravens could dump Willis McGahee. LenDale White should sign elsewhere. Maybe LeSean McCoy takes Brian Westbrook’s spot. Old vets like Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson could be looking for new teams. Seahawks will dump Julius Jones.
Question 4:
Our league is a 2 WR, 1 TE, no flex league. I have 2 great WRs (Vincent Jackson and Reggie Wayne), but am looking for backups (injuries, etc.). I have a philosophical quandary – Austin Collie is clearly best available, but when Gonzalez comes back, I fear Collie’s role will decline. On the other hand, Malcom Floyd is available, and now a number 2 WR with a good QB. And I have Mario Manningham, but am not enchanted with NYG or Eli. Thoughts?
Maurice Isrel [Raleigh, NC]
A:
I’d go with Floyd. Now that he’s being given the opportunity to play full-time, I think he might be a top-20 or top-25 receiver during the second half of the season. When they expanded his role last year, Floyd scored in three of four games. I think he’s a pretty good player.
Question 5:
I've got Aaron Rodgers at QB in a Yardage + TD league. If Rodgers were to suffer an injury, I would have to choose a replacement among such luminaries as Henne, Sanchez, Edwards, Stafford, Bulger and their ilk. Would I be better off carrying Rodgers' backup Matt Flynn as a backup? Or should I light a candle and pray that Rodgers stays on the field.
MIKE DONNELLY [MIDDLETOWN, CT]
A:
For backups of that caliber, I don’t think they’re worth the roster spot. If Rodgers were to go down, you could probably just pick up one of those guys at that time. That’s the route I would take. I would choose to instead use that roster spot to help your team. You could use it, for example, to pick up a kicker or defense that will help you in a future matchup. Dan Carpenter, for example, is a lesser kicker who’s probably available in most leagues. But the Dolphins next week are at home against the Buccaneers. Carpenter should be a top-5 kicker that week – and there will be competition for his services. So why not just forget about the contingency plan behind Rodgers and instead use that spot on Carpenter?
Question 6:
Why isn't the New Orleans defense ranked higher going forward? They are piling up the points in my leagues, and while a lot of the scoring for defenses comes through luck, this unit will almost always be playing with a lead in the fourth quarter, and that's where a lot of those scoring plays seem to come from. And look at the remaining schedule, plenty of bad QBs head to New Orleans. I think the Saints should be top 5 for defense, maybe No. 1.
Katherine Morehead [BERKLEY, MI]
A:
The Saints are on pace to finish with the most touchdowns ever on returns – they’ve got 6 after seven games. Only once in the last 25 years has a team scored more than 11 (and I’m talking touchdowns on both kicks and takeaways). So I imagine it’s time to recognize that they’re just on a roll down there. We’ll move them up in next week’s rankings.
Question 7:
Though it may sound a little crazy, would you sit tight with the combo of Peyton Manning and Andre Johnson for remainder of year? I've gotten two trade offers of Brady/Welker and Rodgers/R.Moss. Just because Owen Daniels got hurt, doesn't mean Johnson will see 20% more production. Also, the new three-headed monster at running back in Houston means less plays for Johnson. Manning clinching playoffs early worries me in later weeks.
eric gustitus [EXETER, PA]
A:
I’m not interested in the Rodgers/Moss combo. I would be too worried about Rodgers getting hurt – he takes so many unnecessary hits by hanging onto the ball that I fear he won’t make it through the season. While it’s possible that Brady/Welker might be more productive, I see no reason to make a change. On my board, I’ve got Manning higher than Brady and Johnson higher than Welker. With the Patriots, they’ve got three straight games in the Northeast in December – there probably will be some kind of weather issue for at least one of those games. With the Colts and Texans, the only possible weather problem I see is in week 17 for Indianapolis at Buffalo. As far as resting players, I think it’s premature to start making those kind of decisions. The Colts have games coming up against New England, Baltimore, Denver and Houston (twice); if they lose a couple of those, that No. 1 seed may still be up for grabs in week 17.
Question 8:
I have Calvin Johnson and am starting to get worried. For some reason the team in not disclosing what type of knee injury he has. Should I try to trade him?
DAVID BOZZELLI [INDIANAPOLIS, IN]
A:
If you can get good value in return for Johnson, that’s an option you can look at. But I wouldn’t move him at a fire-sale price. He was able to practice, albeit on a limited basis, on both Wednesday and Thursday, so I imagine he’ll return this week. Johnson said after practice Thursday that he believes he’ll play.
Question 9:
Which WR do you like better for the next 2-3 years. Steve Smith (NYG) or Jeremy Maclin? I'm looking at possibly making a multi-player trade for Maclin in a dynasty league, and wondering if I can/should sell high on Smith.
ADAM HOLTZ [ROCHESTER, MN]
A:
I’ll go with Maclin, but not by much. He’s having a solid rookie year, and I expect him to be a lot better in 2010 and 2011. Smith is also very good, but I think Hakeem Nicks will become the top guy for the Giants next season. For right now – for 2009 – I would want Smith. Smith was very good earlier in the year. He’s tailed off in recent games, but I think that’s tied to scheduling. I expect Smith to re-emerge in these upcoming games. New York’s next two are at home against teams with poor pass defenses.
Question 10:
Kurt Warner is not producing like a top flight QB this year. Is it time to trade him and upgrade the position? I see he has a pretty easy schedule come fantasy playoff time so I don’t want it to bite me. Was looking at Ben Roethlisberger, but still don’t trust him to be a consistent scorer based on prior years. What do you think?
ERIC FEINGOLD [GARDEN CITY, NY]
A:
I like Roethlisberger. I think he’ll continue to be a top quarterback – if he can stay healthy. With his unusual playing style (with him hanging onto the ball so long and taking plenty of hits), you have to cross your fingers and hope he can stay healthy. I’ll be surprised if Elvis Dumervil doesn’t sack him at least twice on Monday. So I’d get Roethlisberger, if possible (though he’s got a tough matchup this week). I don’t, however, think you need to kick Warner to the curb. He hasn’t been that bad. He’s averaging 240 yards per game, and he’s on pace to finish with over 25 TD passes. With an easy schedule in the second half of the season, I imagine he’ll be even better from this point going forward.
Question 11:
Everyone writes in and whines when somebody they drafted didn't work out (it's all your fault, obviously). I want to also complain. I have Cedric Benson and Ray Rice on all my teams. Together they've played 13 games and have only 1161 yards rushing, 8 TDs and 273 yards receiving. This from two players nobody else wanted. Ian, only 273 yards receiving? Can't you do better than that? (he asked tongue in cheek) Seriously, I wish your subscribers would appreciate all the great work you do!
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
Thanks for the kind words. I just wish that Anthony Gonzalez hadn’t injured his knee in the opener. With the kind of passing numbers the Colts are putting up, I’m sure that Gonzalez would be posting big stats and it would be a real, butt-kicker type of season.
Question 12:
I'm getting my bench ready for the playoff push and I'd like your advice on some spare parts. Who'll have the larger fantasy impact going forward -- Beanie Wells or Shonn Greene? Wells seems to be working his way into the starting role, but in that pass-happy offense Tim Hightower will have to remain a fixture won't he? The 67 yards Wells gained last week is, I'm thinking, about what I can expect going forward, but what of Greene? Thomas Jones seems to have become the new Fred Taylor, of whom we say every season, "this will be the year that his backup moves ahead of him," but he just won't go away. But Greene looked awesome at Oakland, and both backs will get opportunities. Finally, among Mohamed Massaquoi, Jerricho Cotchery, and Michael Jenkins, who's worth keeping?
Jacob Wilson [Crandall, TX]
A:
I’ll go with Wells over Greene. If Jones gets hurt, then Greene definitely will be more valuable, but we’re down to only nine games left. It’s getting late in the game to be hoping for injuries. Wells is starting to emerge as the featured runner in Arizona, and the Cardinals have one of the easiest schedules from this point going forward. They play Detroit and St. Louis in weeks 15-16, so I could see Wells helping teams in fantasy playoff games. As for the wide receivers, I don’t really like any of them as keeper prospects. Massaquoi would be my No. 1 – he’s Cleveland’s best receiver right now – but I imagine the Browns will obtain a better wide receiver in the offseason.
Question 13:
I have to give you props. 3 leagues. 2 teams in first place with the most points scored. The third "only" in first place. All due to your fantastic product! Have you ever thought about writing the book, "Fantasy Football For Dummies." Anyway, I am looking for more depth at WR and TE. I picked up Mike Wallace. Have Heap and he's been mediocre. Crabtree, Floyd and J. Finley all available as I type this. Who at the above mentioned positions can most help me win another title?
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
I think Floyd will be very good from this point going forward. Crabtree probably will get his first touchdown catch this weekend against a porous Tennessee secondary. Finley has a sprained knee and probably won’t play.
Question 14:
In a PPR league where QBs get 6 pts for TDs but also get penalized for sacks, ints and fumbles and can also be flexed. I have Rivers and Brees already along with Palmer. Is it a good deal to trade Palmer for Rice?
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
Yes. I think that you move Palmer, helping yourself at running back while taking the reasonable gamble that Rivers and Brees can stay healthy.
Question 15:
I have two good backs in Michael Turner and Cedric Benson. My reserve is Glen Coffee who I'm looking to drop. Still available are Donald Brown, Beanie Wells, Shonn Greene and Darren Sproles. Since each of these players is presently a backup, who do you see as having the best chance to emerge as a starting back with TD potential.
WILLIAM MCKENNA [RUTLAND, MA]
A:
I’ll give a slight edge to Wells. With the other three backs, you’re hoping for an injury. With Wells, he might just take the job.
Question 16:
Looking for some trade advise. League is a yardage league that starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1K and 1 ST/D. Starting RBs Jacobs and Bell with Bradshaw and Greene as reserves. WRs are very strong with Moss, Wayne and D.Jackson as starters and Harvin and T.O. on the bench. Larry Johnson and Westbrook are available this week as both were cut last week; however, our league is an auction league with salary cap so there is no guarantee I can get either. With all that, would you trade D.Jackson for either Benson or Chris Johnson? If so, which one do you prefer? Would you still make the trade if you were able to get Westbrook in free agency?
Rich Lenart [MARLTON, NJ]
A:
Hopefully, you can add Westbrook to bolster your backfield. That would give you a nice mix of guys. Benson is probably a top-5 back in your league (I don’t know the exact scoring format), but if you move DeSean Jackson, that leaves a big void at wide receiver. Neither Percy Harvin nor Terrell Owens are guys you want to be starting every week.
Question 17:
I know it's early, but the trade deadline for my keeper league is this Sunday. How would you rank the top 25 for next year in a PPR keeper league with otherwise standard scoring?
Chris Thompson [Los Angeles, CA]
A:
I don’t have an exact list, but typically in a PPR league, it’s those wide receivers who can be counted on to stay healthy and catch 90-plus passes who tend to get undervalued – Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, guys like that.
Question 18:
I am trying to acquire Larry Fitzgerald from another team owner. I have offered either the Dallas RBs (Barber & Choice) or the Indy RBs (Addai & Brown) for Fitzgerald. He also wants Mike Sims-Walker included in the deal. That’s too much, in my opinion, to give up. What are your thoughts with regard to this trade?
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
How much depth do you have at running back? Giving away the Dallas or Indianapolis running backs, that’s a nice chunk of production. The key could be Sims-Walker. He’s been a very good receiver so far, but it could be time to move him. The Jaguars have started using Mike Thomas more in recent weeks, and they also might be souring on David Garrard. Garrard passed for only 139 yards last week against a really bad Tennessee defense. And Garrard hasn’t thrown any touchdown passes in five of his seven games.
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Question 3: What backup RBs are likely...
Posted by Michael Harloff | Nov. 06 at 09:56 AM
What about Indy - will Addai be there for another year of RBBC or will Brown likely have a full time role?
Question 11: Everyone writes in and whines...
Posted by Joseph Smith | Nov. 06 at 10:52 AM
Ian, I drafted Gonzalez also in my league. Still, with all the other great advice offered in the magazine and internet updates, I'm sitting good in my 12-team league. The second half should be even better with guys like V. Jackson, R. Moss, Turner, Benson, Addai, Roethlisburger, and Celek. Moss I picked up in a trade but everyone else was in the draft. Thanks again.
Question 11: Everyone writes in and whines...
Posted by NEAL BHARDWAJ | Nov. 12 at 11:28 AM
I'll admit that I have been down on the Fantasy Index team this year. I didn't like the preseason rankings. Based on my adjustments I managed to draft two teams that are now 6-3 on the season. Not bad. With that said, as I am a paying subscriber, I have my right to my own opinions (just as you do). However, I definitely appreciate Ian posting everyone's opinions, whether good or bad. He does not shy away from any controversial questions.