Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Nov. 27 at 02:37 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
A team in my league dropped Brian Westbrook. I'm pretty much locked into a playoff spot. Do you think he's worth a waiver wire pickup as a playoff possibility?
Craig Rinne [GAINESVILLE, FL]
A:
I think he makes sense, especially if you’re giving points for receiving production. Westbrook won’t play this week. He probably won’t play in week 13, but it’s possible. And he might be back in the lineup in week 14. I’m not saying he’ll be anything special. You’re not getting 2007 Brian Westbrook. At best, he’ll get two thirds of the work in the backfield, with LeSean McCoy also contributing. But it makes sense to bring him in for a look-see. Maybe you get lucky and he fills in a game for you.
Question 2:
Whoever is calling the plays for Carolina has to be the most inept coordinator in the league. Watching Carolina play against Miami, basically summed up my entire fantasy season in a couple of hours. Do they not realize that they have one of the best RBs in the league on their team? They certainly don't seem to. He's averaging over 5 YPC this season, just like the previous two, but they seem dead set on him not getting a full load. I guess they would rather have a rested RB than actually win the game. But the thing is, this hasn't just been a one-time thing, it's been happening all season long. Jonathan Stewart is a very capable back, no doubt about it. But DeAngelo Williams is one of the best; he has great power, vision and speed. They don't deserve to have a running back like DeAngelo Williams on their team.
BRAD MARTINEZ [MARRERO, LA]
A:
Williams is something special. I think he has some Barry Sanders in him. And I agree that Carolina isn’t getting quite enough out of him. And that’s been a problem with John Fox all along. You’ll recall, after all, that Fox left Williams behind DeShaun Foster for all of the 2007 season, even though everyone in the civilized world could see that Williams was better (Williams averaged 5.0 yards per carry that year, while Foster was down at 3.5). Now Williams has averaged 5.5 and 5.4 yards per carry the last two years. That’s unusual production. By my count, the only backs in the Modern Era who’ve had back-to-back seasons going over 1,000 yards and averaging 5.4 yards per carry are Marshall Faulk and Clinton Portis. Both those backs did it once, while they were in their explosive primes. I think the problem with Carolina is probably more Jake Delhomme than Jonathan Stewart, but that team definitely should be better than 4-6, and Williams should be putting up better numbers.
Question 3:
When there's an issue with our league, we often times revert to your site for a ruling. With that, here's an interesting one regarding playoff spots and tiebreakers. We have 6 teams that make the playoffs. As it stands right now, there are 6 teams tied at 5-6 for the final 3 spots. Our first tie breaker is h2h, and then points. It's generally easy when its just 2 teams tied, but with 6, it’s a bit dicey. What is the best way to do it? Take the overall combined head-to-head records against the 6 tied teams and take the top 3 records? We've got 2 more weeks to go, but its good to know where everyone stands, plus its good to clarify.
steven kalina [BUFFALO GROVE, IL]
A:
First of all, if you’ve got your teams divided into divisions or conferences, break those ties first. In the NFL, for example, if the Packers were to finish 10-6 and the top three teams in the NFC East all finished 10-6, the logjam in the division would be sorted out first – figure out the ordering between the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles. Then, one of those teams would be the division champ, and the 2nd-place team would be compared with the Packers to determine the identity of the top wild card in the conference. As you sort this out, I will share two rules from the NFL’s procedures. If you were to have four teams in one division finish with the same record, the tiebreaker would be as follows: “best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs.” So if you have all of your teams in one big clump (maybe a 8- or 10-team league), you could argue that it was one big division, and that would be the tiebreaker for you. You should also be aware of the language in the NFL’s tiebreaking formula for three or more teams from different divisions. Suppose that the Cardinals, Saints, Vikings and Cowboys all won their divisions with 13-3 records – which one would get the No. 1 seed in the playoffs? In that scenario, the head-to-head tiebreaker is written: “Head to heap sweep (apply only if one club has defeated each of the others or one club has lost to each of the others).” What they’re getting at there is trying to cover for imbalanced schedules. If Saints had gone 2-0 against the Cardinals and Cowboys, but hadn’t even played Minnesota, the NFL doesn’t want them winning the tiebreaker over the Vikings (who maybe went 1-0 against Arizona but didn’t even play New Orleans or Dallas). For your league, unless all of the teams have meet an equal number of times or unless one team has separated itself by beating (or losing to) all of the others, I think you move to points scored.
Question 4:
Usual kudos on your work. Looking to week 12 specifically (and next 3 in general), I'll be absorbing your advice and at the same time trying to reverse-engineer the solution for a receiver. I need to do better than Avery or Hester in a 12-team league. Pickings are slim. If I look for the worst pass defense and opt for their opposing wideouts I might get a no.2 with unimpressive stats to date. Is it reasonable to consider this a prudent methodology? Or am I over-complicating this ... just go with the best talent available regardless of matchup coverage? Thanks for the continued assistance.
JOE NORDSTRAND [DICKINSON, TX]
A:
I have interest in Donnie Avery this week, as well as the other starting receiver in St. Louis – Brandon Gibson. I realize the Rams are terrible. I realize that Marc Bulger is out. But I don’t think there’s much difference between Kyle Boller and Bulger, and Seattle’s pass defense is just horrible right now. If you’ve been counting along at home, every single credible quarterbacks the Seahawks have faced has finished with a passer rating over 100 – Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner (twice) and Jay Cutler. I’m not saying that Boller is anything close to those guys, but I think he could have a decent day (maybe 230 yards and 1-2 TDs). So I think Avery has some value. The problem in your scoring format is that you’re going PPR, and the Rams don’t pump the ball to Avery. He’s more of a big-play guy. So Gibson might actually outperform him in your league. And Devin Hester tends to get more looks than Avery as well. I realize the Bears are struggling and should get slapped around in Minnesota, but that team has no running game, so they’ll be passing the ball often. I expect Chicago to finish with under 80 rushing yards in that game. Despite losing decisively, they’ll probably be over 240 or 250 passing yards, and Hester has a good chance to catch a half-dozen balls. I don’t think you’ll find a waiver-wire receiver to beat those guys.
Question 5:
I don't understand how you possibly have Aaron Rodgers ranked #9 on your redrafter. That's a joke. He has accounted for more TDs than any QB in the league (22) and is averaging 280 yds a game. Don't give me the he's getting sacked too much reason either. Every QB is a threat to get hurt. That ranking is a disservice to your readers.
CHRISTOPHER TONELLA [SAINT LOUIS, MO]
A:
There are a lot of good quarterbacks out there right now – Brady, Brees, Schaub, Warner, Favre, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Peyton Manning. (Those are my top 9, and there are some others I like as well). If you look simply at projected points per game, I have Rodgers as the No. 3 quarterback of that group. If you want to balance the likelihood that the player might get injured because of the number of times he’s being sacked, Rodgers moves down to 9th. There are only six weeks left, so you might want to just ignore the possibility of injuries. That’s fine. But note that two of the other quarterbacks with some increased injury potential got dinged up last week – Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger.
Question 6:
I have been holding onto Shonn Greene in a standard scoring keeper league where we start 2 RBs with the hopes that he would steal carries from Thomas Jones. It doesn't look like it will happen his year, but looking ahead to next year, do you think he has a good chance of being the starter in NY?
Chris Masters [Toronto, ON]
A:
Definitely. Jones is 31. He’s a running back. He takes a lot of punishment. There’s almost no chance that Jones will start 16 games next year. As heavily as they’re working him, there’s a decent chance that Jones will even get hurt this year. You just have to bide your time. At some point, the Jets will need to plug in Greene to the starting lineup.
Question 7:
I will be starting Favre this week and am unsure which WR to start as my third. We get individual points if a player runs back a punt or kick off all the way. I have Sims-Walker and Harvin to select from. A win this week most likely means that I'm playoff bound again this season.
DARRELL PRESTELLA [CARSON CITY, NV]
A:
I think you have to go with Mike Sims-Walker. He’s just playing such a huge role in that offense right now. He’s scored three weeks in a row, and he’s had over 80 yards in all but two of the games he’s started this year. Jacksonville is at San Francisco, which is a lot better against the run than the pass, so the matchup is favorable. Percy Harvin also has a really good matchup, but he’s just one of the many receiving targets for the Vikings. I would definitely go with Sims-Walker.
Question 8:
What are your thoughts on LeSean McCoy for the rest of the season and next year in dynasty leagues? Sounds like Brian Westbrook may play in 3 weeks, although I originally thought Philly would just hold him out for the rest of the year since he suffered two concussions in a short period of time.
Don Goss [USA]
A:
Westbrook is right at the end of the line. He’s 30, and he just can’t stay healthy. He’s got a base salary of $7.3 million in 2010. No way will the Eagles bring him back at that number. Maybe he agrees to a massive pay cut and returns in a time-share role with McCoy. Or maybe the Eagles just get rid of him and bring in somebody new. McCoy has shown some potential, but I don’t think he’s quite good enough or durable enough to be trusted in a heavy-duty role. I expect McCoy will share time with some other runner in the Philadelphia backfield next year.
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Question 1: A team in my league...
Posted by HUGH HIGGINS | Nov. 27 at 12:23 PM
I may be able to clinch a playoff berth this week, thanks in large part to your updates, so I really need your opinion. I have Big Ben & Mendenhall as starters on my team and having just received and read the latest FI Update, I am wondering if I'd be better off starting Alex Smith in place of Ben(even if he plays), and Rock Cartwright instead of Mendy, mainly because of the Balt Defense. The Smith match-up isn't bad vs Jacksonville at home, although Ben does have the potential to torch a wounded Ravens secondary, causing uncertainty. Cartwright did well against Dallas last week after Betts went down, but playing against the Philly defense in Philly is also a tough match-up, but then again so is Mendy's against Balt which hurt him last year. You see my double-barrelled dilemma.....I'd value your guidance.
Question 1: A team in my league...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 27 at 08:17 PM
Hugh, if you've got the updated rankings, you've already got Ian's opinion...those concerns go into the rankings. The QBs are very close, with rankings varying slightly based on scoring system; Cartwright's higher than Mendenhall. For what it's worth, I'd go with Roethlisberger and Cartwright. Good luck...
Question 1: A team in my league...
Posted by KING PURSER | Nov. 28 at 07:20 PM
"When there's an issue with our league..." To lead off with the "issue" drivel clearly indicates a fatally flawed league. Next question?