Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Dec. 04 at 02:13 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I know you somewhat answered this already, but I have Peyton Manning. Do you start him 14-17? What a mess. I picked up Vince Young in case, but I really don't want to have to start him in the playoffs.
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
The Colts have a three-game lead in the AFC. There’s a decent chance they’ll enter week 15 with home-field advantage in the bag. And GM Bill Polian says the team won’t hesitate to rest players – that he views keeping players healthy as being more valuable than staying sharp. Polian points to 1999, when linebacker Cornelius Bennett was injured in a week 17 game. So I don’t think you can use Manning, Dallas Clark, Joseph Addai or Reggie Wayne in the final week of the season. For weeks 15 & 16, I’ll bet that you see the Indianapolis first-team offense for at least a half. I think they’ll still be OK for those games.
Question 2:
What are your thoughts on Jerome Harrison in a yardage and PPR format? I know Cleveland is horrible, but they do have Kansas City and Oakland in weeks 15 and 16.
JOHN RUPPE [FORT MYERS, FL]
A:
Scheduling helps. After the Browns play a couple of games, we should have an idea whether Cleveland’s main back in those two choice matchups will be Harrison or Chris Jennings. Jennings moved up into the No. 2 spot a few weeks ago, but I believe Harrison has now moved back ahead of him on the depth chart. They both carried the ball twice against Cincinnati (neither with much result). Harrison is listed higher on the team’s depth chart right now. And he’s a good pass catcher, which makes him a viable option in a PPR format (at least for those two games). Jennings hasn’t done anything to suggest that he’s worthy of even being tried in a heavy-duty role. He carried 10 times for 36 yards at Detroit, otherwise; he’s been under 3 yards per attempt in his other games. Jennings was a walk-on on Arizona, wasn’t invited to the combine, and couldn’t get any playing time in the CFL when he was with the Montreal Alouttes.
Question 3:
I have requested you help twice already this year and your recommendations have been very beneficial. I need your advice once again. I am in a dynasty league and have held on to some older, past-their-prime running backs too long. I am not a contender for the remainder of this year. Consequently, I am looking towards next year and need your help. I think teams like Cleveland, San Diego, Seattle, New England, and possibly the Giants might have their starting running back sitting on the bench or on the mend. Can you tell me if any of these players are worth picking up yet this year for next year and beyond: Hester (SD), Tolbert (SD), Davis (Cleveland), Jennings (Cleveland), Ware, Andre Brown, or Gartrell Johnson from the Giants, Forsett (Seattle), Mike Bush (Oakland), Brandon Jackson (GB), and Green-Ellis (New England). Appreciate your expertise on the above.
DENNIS RUEBEL [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
I think you have to put Justin Forsett at the head of the list. Unlike the other guys, he’s shown he can do it. He ran for 123 yards at Arizona, and he went for 130 yards against the Rams. Nice receiver as well – he’s caught 18 passes in his last four games. Maybe he can be another Steve Slaton. The Seahawks certainly will obtain a running back in the offseason who’ll be expected to be ahead of Forsett on the depth chart, but we’ll see how it plays out. Long term, I’m more interested in the guys playing for the Giants. That team has done a good job of developing less-heralded backs in the past. Brandon Jacobs was a fourth-round pick. Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward were both selected in the seventh. Maybe one of the guys you’ve mentioned can have the same kind of success. Both Brown and Johnson were selected in the fourth round. James Davis showed some potential in the preseason before landing on injured reserve; he’s got a chance, but the Browns no doubt will bring in a more-heralded back in the offseason. I will be surprised if any current Cleveland back – Davis, Chris Jennings or Jerome Harrison – starts any games next year. Mike Tolbert is a fullback; I don’t see him every developing into anything. Jacob Hester has some running skills, but he’s kind of a tweener; I don’t believe he’ll ever be a starting NFL tailback. Brandon Jackson hasn’t done enough during his time with the Packers; I’m not confident he’ll make that team next year. Michael Bush, I think, isn’t fast enough to be a tailback – he may wind up being shifted to fullback. The Patriots have had a lot of injuries at tailback and BenJarvus Green-Ellis still hasn’t been able to carve out much of a role for himself – he doesn’t interest me.
Question 4:
What can we expect from Brandon Jacobs the rest of the year? He's been relegated to my bench, but I have a trade offer for one of my starting backs and would like to know if I could count on any production at all from Jacobs from here on out if I make that trade. I'm guessing not, but asking the question anyway.
DARREL OWEN [SACRAMENTO, CA]
A:
I keep waiting for the Giants to wake up and get their running back on track, but it hasn’t happened. Two weeks ago, they were at home against an Atlanta defense ranking in the bottom 10 against the run, and Jacobs ran for only 39 yards on 12 carries. Then he ran for only 27 yards on 11 attempts at Denver, a team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone recently. Jacobs doesn’t have a 100-yard game all year, and he doesn’t catch any passes. Maybe he can get things going in weeks 15-16, when the Giants play a pair of weaker run defenses, but I’m not counting on it.
Question 5:
Dynasty league question. This coming week is the last week to pick up free agents. Rank these players in order of best to worst for the next couple years. Portis, Roy Williams, Massaquoi, Winslow, Cooley.
Gary Wool [PHILADELPHIA, PA]
A:
Winslow and Cooley are good tight ends. Both probably will be ranked in the top 10 at their position next year. Winslow seems to have a nice rapport with Josh Freeman; he’s caught 23 passes and a touchdown in his last four games. Freeman will be better next year, when he has more experience, so I imagine Winslow will have a good chance to catch 80-plus balls. Cooley is more of an unknown; Washington probably will have a new coach and a new offense, and Cooley says he’s not sure if the team will bring him back. But he’s a good tight end – should fit in somewhere. Portis turned 28 just before opening day, but to me, he looks more like he’s 32. He’s been overworked over the years, and I don’t like the way he’s remolded his body. When he started with the Broncos, he was a 195-pound speedster. I think he might have even dropped down to 190. And he was clearly the fastest running back in the league. Now he’s bulked up to 225. The explosiveness is gone, and he’s just a guy. His long touchdown run last year was 9 yards. I hope that five years from now, we’re not saying the same things about Chris Johnson. I don’t have much interest in the receivers you mention. I roll my eyes every time I have to hear Roy Williams explain how he’s still a No. 1 receiver. Mohamed Massaquoi, I guess, is the No. 3 guy on your list – maybe he should be ahead of Cooley. He’s made a few plays this year. But I expect he’ll be just an ordinary No. 2 receiver next year.
Question 6:
It's that time of year again to ask who you've got on your short-list of potential breakout players for 2010, i.e., players that keeper league GM's should look to pick up.
Rob Dammers [MORRIS PLAINS, NJ]
A:
Three of the best young receivers are guys who weren’t selected in the first round: Andre Caldwell, Johnny Knox, Mike Wallace. I don’t know that any of those guys would be available in your league, but I like them. Donald Driver can’t go on forever, and the guy who’ll replace him is probably already on the roster – James Jones or Jordy Nelson. Devin Thomas may finally be starting to put together his game; he’s had a 25-yard reception three weeks in a row. Jacoby Jones caught my eye a few years back; he’s been down for a while, but he took a step up this year, rotating in for some action and catching a few touchdowns. At some point, Jones could develop into a good starter. If I were walking into a dynasty draft today, I would select Javon Ringer before LenDale White; when Chris Johnson gets hurt next year in Tennessee, it should be Ringer, not White, who steps in. Sammie Stroughter has shown some playmaking ability for the Bucs; maybe he becomes a starter next year. Backup running backs Bernard Scott and Glen Coffee should be on rosters. Backup quarterbacks who should be on rosters in a dynasty format: Matt Leinart, Kevin Kolb, Dennis Dixon, and maybe Tarvaris Jackson.
Question 7:
Due to a combination of your help and good fortune, my team is 11-1. I currently have LeSean McCoy as my third RB. I would like to pick up a replacement for him for the playoffs. The next two weeks are not important as I have already earned a first round bye (week 14). Which of the following would you recommend for weeks 15 & 16: Fred Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Bernard Scott or Jamaal Charles.
BILL CARINI [HARTLAND, WI]
A:
I see Moreno and Charles as the best of those two. Moreno is the better runner; Charles is used more in the passing game, so might finish with more total yards. In week 15, Denver hosts Oakland, while Kansas City hosts Cleveland. Two ideal matchups. Both have lesser matchups in week 16. I will go with Moreno.
Question 8:
Thanks to your rankings, I'm in a comfortable position heading to the playoffs, but with teams wrapping up divisions early, and concussions, I'm looking to solidify my bench. Would you prefer Eli Manning or David Garrard for Weeks 15-16? At WR, Bowe, Meachem, Lee Evans, Nicks and Avery are available. Who would you choose for Weeks 15-16? Would you release Westbrook for one of them?
Scott Kopischke [MENOMONEE FALLS, WI]
A:
Meachem has scored four weeks in a row. How is he available? If you’re in a PPR league, than maybe Bowe. At quarterback, I hope you don’t have to rely on Manning or Garrard in either of those weeks – I don’t like any of those matchups. Passing yards looks like a wash. Manning will throw more touchdowns. Garrard gives you the bonus rushing yards. Slight edge: Garrard.
Question 9:
I'm in the inaugural year of a hybrid keeper/dynasty league where we keep 4 players and assign 16 years worth of contracts to those 4 selected. It is a PPR league with one starting QB, one RB, one WR and two flex between RB and WR. My QB choices are: Matt Ryan, Carson Palmer and Matthew Stafford. RB choices are: Frank Gore, Ray Rice, Cedric Benson and Ronnie Brown. WR choices are: Greg Jennings and Devin Hester. Any advice?
Jason Schuetz [FORT COLLINS, CO]
A:
It’s a PPR format, so Ray Rice is your best player. I imagine he’ll catch another 60-plus passes next year. I don’t see a lot of difference between the other three running backs. Frank Gore also catches a lot of balls, but he seems to be further along in his career than the other two. I’d go with Cedric Benson, and add in Ronnie Brown if you want to keep three backs. I don’t consider Greg Jennings to be a knockout receiver (he’s been outperformed by teammate Donald Driver), but Jennings is solid, and the Packers have the pieces in place to have a good passing game in the upcoming years. At quarterback, I like Matt Ryan the most of that group; he’s been a slight disappointment, but I think he’s the real deal and should be a very good pro for years.
Question 10:
Who do you like better long term, specifically next year – Kenny Britt or Robert Meachem? I play in a deep keeper league and have my choice of either one. Originally, I was going to take Britt, but now I am starting lean towards Meachem based on the fact that he's beginning to establish himself in a great offense. Obviously there are lots of weapons in New Orleans, but Meachem looks much improved from last year. Do you think Meachem can develop into something more than a deep threat or would you go with Britt, who has shown nice potential as a rookie?
Don Goss [USA]
A:
Tough call. Meachem is in a better offense. Britt is more of a go-to guy. I will give a slight edge to Meachem, figuring he has a better chance to maybe be something special.
Question 11:
My season is on the brink this week, I must win to make the playoffs. I'm in a milestone league with Ray Rice, Cadillac Williams, Jason Snelling, Willis McGahee and the injured Michael Turner. I don't see any of these guys reaching 100 yards (maybe Caddy), so my strategy I think will be to put in the two guys who have the best chance of getting me a short yardage TD or two. I'm leaning towards some combo of Caddy, Snelling and McGahee. Of course this means I'm benching the most talented of the group, Ray Rice. For such a critical game, do you agree with my logic?
NICK FRITZ [MINNEAPOLIS, MN]
A:
In fantasy football, I think there can be such as thing as outsmarting yourself. Paralysis by over-analysis. And after the Ravens win 31-23 on Monday night, you’re left scratching your head wondering, “why was it, again, that I benched Ray Rice when he put up 183 total yards and 3 TDs?”. Rice is the first guy you start. The other spot is the one you stew over: either Williams (a so-so runner) against the weak Carolina defense, or hope that McGahee punches in a 1-yard TD at Green Bay, which has allowed only 3 rushing TDs all year.
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Question 1: I know you somewhat answered...
Posted by HUGH HIGGINS | Dec. 10 at 04:02 AM
This is more of an advice question than a comment, but I'm now in playoffs & need your input, but if you don't update this until Friday it will be too late. How much would you take into account the high winds in Cleveland when choosing between starting PITTS QB Ben R. Thurs night or Alex Smith Sunday at home vs ARIZ?