Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Dec. 18 at 02:58 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I would like to discuss a favorite and highly underrated player named Josh Cribbs. For me, this guy is instant offense ever time he touches the football. He very much reminds me of Eric & Terry Metcalf. Not every-down players but specialty players. What are the prospects for next year for him? The Browns should be using him much the Bears do with Devin Hester.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Cribbs is a little different. He’s not as fast as Hester, but he’s a lot bigger. Hester is listed at 5-11 and 190; Cribbs is up at 6-1 and 215. I expect the Browns will continue to use him on both kickoff and punt returns, but I think they’re finished with trying to convert him into a wide receiver. He hasn’t been successful at that position; they’ve thrown him short passes, but he hasn’t been able to turn enough of those into significant gains. He’s averaged only 6.9 yards on his 19 catches this year. In five years as a pro, he’s averaging 8.1 yards on 35 catches. Eric Mangini said last week that he’s thinking of trying Cribbs at tailback, and I think that’s the direction they’ll go. Cribbs’ best production has come on reverses and when lined up as a Wildcat quarterback. He could be a change-of-pace running back next season.
Question 2:
What is your expert opinion on Arian Foster this week. I heard reports that he's the new bell cow in Houston, but so was Chris Brown last week right up until game time. I just read one "experts" column that said: " Proven name versus appealing game? Without question, those who advocate matchup over brand power (i.e. DeAngelo Williams (vs. Min), LaDainian Tomlinson (vs. Cin), Brandon Jacobs (at Wash), Ryan Grant (at Pitt), Rashard Mendenhall (vs. GB)) will be richly rewarded." Mendenhall is my No. 2 RB. Do I really consider benching him for Arian Foster? I desperately need your sage-like advice.
Eugene Hitt [GARRISON, NY]
A:
You know me. I’m not a fan of the Dance-With-What-Brung-Ya School of Team Management. I just start the guys that I think will score the most points. Sometimes it pays off, most of the time it doesn’t make any difference, and sometimes I wind up kicking myself. I lost a championship game last year because DeShaun Foster managed to run for only 36 yards, with no touchdowns, against a really bad Rams defense. I started him ahead of Kevin Smith, who somehow managed to run for 111 yards and a touchdown in a game the Lions lost 42-7. This time around, we’re got Foster and Mendenhall. Foster gets to run against the far softer defense. Only five teams have allowed more rushing yards than the Rams, and only the Raiders have allowed more rushing touchdowns. Mendenhall, meanwhile, goes up against a Green Bay defense that has allowed six times as many touchdowns passing (24) as rushing (4). Considering that the Steelers themselves have scored almost three times as many touchdowns on passes (21) as runs (8), you’ve got to figure that the odds are stacked against Mendenhall running for a touchdown. If your league is based solely on touchdowns, I will sign off on Foster. But let’s keep in mind another, sometimes overlooked, portion of the analysis. Arian Foster is Arian Foster. He’s an undrafted free agent who got his first NFL touches last week, running for an unimpressive 34 yards on 13 carries in a home game against Seattle. And the Texans have another couple of backs that they’ll use – Ryan Moats and Chris Brown. Mendenhall, meanwhile, is more of a full-time guy and is even coming on in the passing game. If your league includes players getting credit for yards, I believe Mendenhall is your guy. I’m very willing to plug in Foster, Chris Jennings, Quinton Ganther, or any other nobody you can dig up. But in this case, I just don’t see enough upside there.
Question 3:
Thanks for helping me get to the semifinals in both of my leagues. Tough one for you. Should I start Tom Brady and Randy Moss or Jason Campbell and Antonio Bryant. The numbers say the latter but my gut says the former. Thoughts?
Jim Karlis [ARLINGTON HTS, IL]
A:
It’s always easier to make these kind of decisions when it’s not your own team. So if I were the GM of said franchises, I’m sure I’d be hemming and hawing all week. But the correct decision is to go with Campbell and Bryant. Brady and Moss are better players, of course, and in the back of my head I think the Patriots would like to get Moss a couple of touchdowns and quiet down all the talk about whether he’s frustrated or not giving 100 percent. But it’s really not a good week for that to happen. The weather looks iffy in Buffalo, and the Bills are significantly better against the pass than the run. That defense is last against the run but 5th against pass; it has allowed 17 rushing TDs but only 10 passing TDs. So I expect the Patriots to emphasize the run in that game. Campbell and Bryant, meanwhile, will face two of the weakest defenses in the league. In their last eight games, the Giants have allowed more points than any team in the league; I think Campbell will have a good game against them. And Seattle’s secondary, week in and week out, has been simply horrible. I believe Bryant could catch a half-dozen balls and a touchdown or two in that game.
Question 4:
Any chance the Cowboys move one of their running backs in the offseason. I think Tashard Choice is an amazing RB and if he could get traded to start somewhere else or given the starting job in Dallas I think he could be real special. Any keeper value there? Also DeAngelo Williams is one of the most talented RBs in the league. But what is his future value? As long as Jonathan Stewart is there, how is he ever going to be worth the his value in FF? Any chance he or Stewart gets moved in the offseason? Where do you project him for next year. I will have the choice to keep him but am afraid he will be in that 7-8 TD range as long as he and Stewart are together.
Bret Priaulx [Milwaukee, WI]
A:
In both of his years in the pros, Choice has averaged at least 5.1 yards per carry. He can play. So in less the Cowboys get some kind of enticing offer for him (which isn’t going to happen) he’s not going anywhere. Dallas also has Marion Barber and Felix Jones, but both of those backs have had problems staying healthy. The Cowboys will keep all three of them, figuring that gives him a good chance to have two of those guys healthy for most of their games. As for Williams, I think you’ve got it scouted out properly. A great back, but there will always be the crowding issue there with Stewart. We’ll see what happens there in the offseason. The team could decide to fire John Fox, so they’d have a new coach with a new offensive system.
Question 5:
Any waiver wire defenses that might come up big in week 15? Cleveland against Kansas City? Tennessee against the young offense in Miami?
Andrew Taylor [GROSSE POINTE PARK, MI]
A:
I like the Browns a lot. They sacked Ben Roethlisberger 8 times last week. Now they get to go against a quarterback who’s been sacked even more often (Matt Cassel). And as a bonus, Cleveland also has Josh Cribbs, who’s one of the top couple of kick returners in the league.
Question 6:
I have Tom Brady and Vince Young. Is it obvious that I go with Brady? Considering the injuries and "early pull"?
VINCENT GEIGER [FLUSHING, NY]
A:
I’m all for benching Brady. I see him as just an average quarterback prospect this week. But I would not sit him in favor of Young. Young is a medical question mark after tweaking his hamstring against the Rams. And the way the Titans run the ball, Young is also always a possibility to pass for only about 170 yards. And there is no worry at this point about the Patriots resting Brady for the playoffs; they still need to secure the AFC East, and Bill Belichick is historically the last coach to start resting players anyway. Definitely Brady out of those two.
Question 7:
I am in a standard yardage league and I have the option to start 3 (2 RBs and a flex, which can be a QB). Who do you recommend between Jamaal Charles, Steven Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Quentin Ganther and Matt Hasselbeck. I'm thinking Hasselbeck, Charles and Moreno, but can I really bench Jackson?
RYAN OTTE [NATICK, MA]
A:
My numbers indicate that Charles and Moreno will be your best two running backs this week. And Hasselbeck, in that scoring system, projects to outscore Jackson by 5 points. So I would have no problem benching Jackson.
Question 8:
I am considering dropping Devin Hester (@Bal and Minn week 16) for Davone Bess or Dwayne Bowe in a PPR league for my bench. What would you do? Also , is Bowe worth a start against Clev over Steve Smith (Min) or Derrick Mason (Chi)? I don't see Steve Smith as a must-start any longer.
RYAN RENSHAW [WILLIAMSTOWN, NJ]
A:
Hester didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so I don’t believe he’ll play this week. You don’t want to count on him. But I see him as more likely to make it into your lineup in week 16 than either Bowe or Bess. I think Smith and Mason are your starters this week. Minnesota is much better against the run than the pass, so I figure the Panthers will put the ball in the air more than usual.
Question 9:
Need some help in the playoffs. Peyton Manning should play this week, but what if he doesn't start next week? Who would you start? Campbell, Garrard, Henne, Quinn, Redman if still starting. Any sleeper out there at QB for week 16? This will all be mute if I lose in week 15, but trying to prepare.
Marco Tavares [BILLERICA, MA]
A:
Those look like good possibilities. Of that group, I don’t see one guy who stands out. Maybe a slight edge to Campbell and Henne right now. I would advise you pick up a couple of those quarterbacks, then see what you think of them after Sunday’s games.
Question 10:
I have the choice of either Cedric Benson or Frank Gore as my running back. Who should be my RB for this week? Combo league, not PPR.
CRAIG SMITH [KATY, TX]
A:
I don’t see a big difference between those two. I’ve got Gore slightly higher on my board.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 5: Any waiver wire defenses that...
Posted by Todd Weigel | Dec. 18 at 06:30 AM
I added Houston in a few leagues because they play the Rams, who are dealing with H1N1 (swine) flu. Boller has it, so Null should start again. Steven Jackson may have it. I may start Houston over Philly, though I'll make a final decision on Sunday. What do you think?
Question 7: I am in a standard...
Posted by Grant Markgraf | Dec. 18 at 10:12 PM
keeper league, and here are my potential keepers: Benson, Mendenhall, Meachem. Also Owen Daniels is sitting in waivers, do you think he is worth dropping one of the guys above to keep? Thanks for your help all year, I made the semi's in both leagues.
Question 9: Need some help in the...
Posted by Scott Kopischke | Dec. 18 at 06:42 AM
Would you start one of these QBs or Matt Ryan or Ryan Fitzpatrick over Eli Manning in Week 16?
Question 10: I have the choice of...
Posted by John Wissing | Dec. 19 at 12:46 AM
This week is teh league's championshio. In a PPR league, which you start Barber or Moss? I already have Forsett, Benson, Fitz and Welker in the lineup. Also, which defense Houston or Arizona?