Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jun. 07 at 04:25 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I'm in a Dynasty league that can start 2 QBs, making them very popular to stockpile. Who are your top backup QBs that have the best potential to be a successful future starter? (i.e. Matt Schaub and Kevin Kolb)
Travis Billman [BUFORD, GA]
A:
Aaron Rodgers runs a lot and tends to hang onto the ball too long, so I have some interest in Matt Flynn; I think there’s a reasonable chance he gets on the field. Jimmy Clausen for sure. Derek Anderson could be very good in Arizona; he puts too many balls up for grabs, but Larry Fitzgerald is the kind of receiver who can turn interceptions into big receptions. Brett Favre can’t go on forever (can he?), so Tarvaris Jackson will get a shot in Minnesota. Charlie Whitehurst, of course, in Seattle. And Byron Leftwich will start the first four for Pittsburgh. And as a wild card, let me throw out Nate Davis in San Francisco; maybe he’ll move ahead of Alex Smith and David Carr by the end of this season. I suppose we should throw Tim Tebow, Dan Orlovsky and Michael Vick in to make it an even 10.
Question 2:
A couple of years ago you emailed me information about pass targets to running backs. Would that information still be available? I am in a point per reception league and RBs are highly coveted when they receive a high degree of passes in our fantasy league.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Below is the list of running backs who had at least 40 passes thrown in their direction. Of these players, Pierre Thomas and Julius Jones caught the highest percentage of balls. Ricky Williams and Jerome Harrison caught the lowest percentage. Not that I’m saying that’s proof that Thomas catches the ball a lot better than Williams or Harrison – they were in different offenses with different quarterbacks. There’s a big difference between Drew Brees and Derek Anderson. Nevertheless, that’s the way it played out last year.
Running backs with the most pass attempts, 2009
Ray Rice 101, Tim Hightower 80, Frank Gore 75, Steven Jackson 75, Matt Forte 72, Maurice Jones-Drew 71, Chris Johnson 71, Reggie Bush 68, Joseph Addai 63, Fred Jackson 60, Chester Taylor 59, Darren Sproles 57, Adrian Peterson 57, Kevin Smith 57, Justin Forsett 57, Jamaal Charles 56, Steve Slaton 55, LeSean McCoy 55, Kevin Faulk 53, Ricky Williams 53, Jerome Harrison 50, Pierre Thomas 45, Julius Jones 43, DeAngelo Williams 41, Knowshon Moreno 41.
Question 3:
What happens to the value of Rashard Mendenhall now that Ben Roethlisberger is suspended for the first 4-6 weeks? Does his value go up because they rely more on the run? Does his value go down because there's going to be 8 guys in the box most of the game? He's my big RB keeper going forward and I'm looking forward to a big season.
Eugene Hitt [GARRISON, NY]
A:
I expect Mendenhall to be used more, and I think it would have played out that way even if Roethlisberger hadn’t been suspended. The Steelers have become too one-dimensional, ranking just 23rd and 19th in rushing the last two years. They ranked 5th in passing last year, up at 281 yards per game. They want to become more balanced, and they would like to establish a more physical offensive line. If they can upgrade their running game while keeping the efficiency of the passing game in place, that will be a dangerous offense.
Question 4:
I am considering trading Mike Sims-Walker for Jerome Harrison of the Browns. My WRs are Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and of course Walker. Harrison was on fire the last 4 or 5 games of the year. So, is this a pretty fair trade?
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Are you starting just two receivers each week? So Sims-Walker’s only value is as an injury fill-in and bye-week replacement? As luck would have it, Johnson & Johnson have the same bye week, so Sims-Walker might play only one game for you. So by that measure, it makes some sense to go ahead and make the deal. Maybe Harrison could help you at running back. But Sims-Walker is higher on my draft board. I think it’s pretty safe to say he’ll be Jacksonville’s No. 1 receiver. He’s pretty good. With Harrison, on the other hand, you’ve got just one running back in what could be a pretty extensive committee in Cleveland. He could split time with either James Davis or Montario Hardesty, and they’ve also got Peyton Hillis, who might be their goal-line guy. Harrison came on nicely last year – that’s why you may want to go ahead and make the deal. But outside of that one huge (286 yards) game against Kansas City, he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in the rest of the season.
Question 5:
When can we see your Dynasty / Rookie mock draft? Or even a copy of your experts draft.
mike burdick [OSHKOSH, WI]
A:
We don’t do a dynasty or rookie draft. We’ve got a Mock Draft, featuring 12 experts, and a Mock Auction, also with 12 guys and the same scoring rules. Adrian Peterson was the top choice in both, followed by Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew (they both went for $52 in the auction). Then there was more variation. In the draft, it went Aaron Rodgers, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. That was your first round. But in the auction, three of those players weren’t first-rounders (they weren’t among the 12 highest-paid) – Rodgers, Marshall and Manning. They were replaced by Randy Moss, Ryan Grant and Rashard Mendenhall. The top 12 in auction were $53 Peterson, $52 C.Johnson, $52 Jones-Drew, $46 Gore, $46 A.Johnson, $43 Rice, $42 Turner, $40 Jackson, $40 Moss, $37 Grant, $36 Mendenhall and $35 Brees.
Question 6:
I am in a 12-team league and for the first time we are allowing one player from the previous years draft to be kept. Who would you keep from the following: Michael Turner, Aaron Rodgers, Cedric Benson or Steven Jackson?
CRAIG BOLGER [ALTOONA, PA]
A:
The answer could depend on scoring system. I think Turner will bounce back and have a big year. He does not, however, catch many passes.
Question 7:
We have to have keepers in before you release your magazine so I am looking for some input early. I need to keep one of the following RBs: DeAngelo, Charles, S.Greene, B.Wells. I also need to choose one of the following WRs: S. Smith (CAR), Welker, Harvin. I think I have to go with Smith as my WR decision right? Not so sure on the RB situation.
Bret Priaulx [Milwaukee, WI]
A:
In your league, you’re not giving points for receiving yards (for running backs) and are giving only half as many points as most leagues for rushing yards. It’s almost like a TD-only league. So I think Shonn Greene is your guy at running back. Does Percy Harvin get credit for the 1-2 kickoffs he’ll return for touchdowns? Then let’s nose him ahead of Steve Smith.
Question 8:
If Brett Favre retires, how will that affect Percy Harvin's ranking for next season? I can keep him for good value (on paper) in a 14-team league but I wonder who will be getting him the ball.
Tru Livaudais [TUSCALOOSA, AL]
A:
I wouldn’t worry too much about Favre. It looks like he’s coming back, and that means Harvin should be very good.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 1: I'm in a Dynasty league...
Posted by Jason Guzik | Jun. 07 at 12:19 PM
Could you give me a prediction for each team's offensive power rating? Stats include projected P yds/g, R yds/g, P TD's and R TD's. This would be very helpful in determining a team's defensive strength of schedule.
Question 8: If Brett Favre retires, how...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jun. 07 at 04:36 AM
As a Harvin owner, I'd also toss out the theory that Harvin would be the Vikings receiver least affected by Favre retiring. Lining up in the slot and taking short throws might be something he would do just as much if not more with a lesser quarterback under center. Sidney Rice and Visanthe Shiancoe would seem to be the most at risk of losing value if Favre hangs them up (which he probably won't).