Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jun. 11 at 03:58 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Could you give me a prediction for each team's offensive power rating? Stats include projected passing yards, rushing yards, passing touchdowns and rushing touchdowns. This would be very helpful in determining a team's defensive strength of schedule.
Jason Guzik [HILTON, NY]
A:
We forecast passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns for each team. Each player’s individual projection is then a percentage of that total. That way, when you go in and add up all of the individual receiving projections for all of the players on the Saints, it adds up to exactly 292 yards (which is right where we have Drew Brees). It is also possible, of course, to run those numbers through the strength-of-schedule machine that we keep in the office. Using those numbers (2010 forecasts, rather than 2009 results), Pittsburgh, Kansas City and San Diego project to play the easiest schedules in terms of pass defense (the Steelers are down at 216 yards per game – 35 ahead of the last-place team). The best schedules for rushing defense belong to Tennessee, Washington and Carolina. There, we’re talking about a 10-yard-per-game difference versus the worst teams. Hardest schedules for passing belong to the four NFC East teams. The hardest schedules for rushing belong to Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Houston. All listings are based on a combination of yards and touchdowns. I went with 6 points for touchdowns. For rushing 1 point for every 10 yards. For passing, 1 point for every 15 yards (halfway between what I would expect for quarterbacks and receivers). I’m posting all of the data as a separate item, in case you’re interested in looking at it in detail.
Question 2:
I've been playing fantasy football and using the Index long enough now, I start to feel nostalgic this time of year from a fantasy perspective when players retire. Kurt Warner and Isaac Bruce hang it up (and Torry Holt probably should). Any memories or thoughts you'd like to share on the two players that began the Greatest Show on Turf and turned the fantasy world upside down almost overnight? Interestingly, the only season I ever drafted Warner over the years was when he was with the Giants.
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I was lucky enough to select Isaac Bruce in 1995, with the last pick in the last round. He hadn’t done much as a rookie, catching only 21 passes in a reserve role. But in that first season in St. Louis, that offense really got it going – particularly early in season. They were playing in Busch Memorial Stadium, which was the same venue where the Cardinals had played before leaving. Lousy field with terrible artificial turf, but they played there while they waited for their dome to be built. And Bruce was fantastic – 119 catches for 1,781 yards and 13 TDs that year. That was with Chris Miller at quarterback. Miller’s career was derailed by injuries (particularly concussions), but he was very effective when he was healthy and on his game – he could play. So Bruce, for a 7-9 team, piled up 1,781 receiving yards. That’s the 2nd-most ever behind Jerry Rice (who finished with 1,848, oddly, in the same year and in the same division). Since the NFL went to the 16-game schedule, only one other receiver has cracked the 1,700-yard mark (Marvin Harrison). Bruce is one of the all-timers. Whether that’s good enough to get him into the Hall of Fame, I’m not sure. His credentials look awfully similar to Cris Carter, Tim Brown and Andre Reed, and all of those guys were turned away last year. Shannon Sharpe is also still waiting.
As for Kurt Warner, he also took our fantasy league by storm. The Rams were seemingly dead in the water when Rodney Harrison slammed into Trent Green’s knee in a preseason game, side-lining him for the season. I can remember significantly reworking my projections to account for that injury, figuring the St. Louis passing game would be dead in the water with this unknown and inexperienced guy who’d arrived via Northern Iowa and the NFL Europe league (and how long would he even be in the lineup? – I thought the Rams might obtain a more proven option to handle that spot). Warner wasn’t even selected in our fantasy draft. But he passed for 309 yards and 3 TDs in his first game. A team in our league that didn’t do well in our auction, the Bellevue Jive-Mongers, released a couple of overpaid flops to bring him in. And Warner finished with 41 TD passes that year, leading the Jive-Mongers to the Krohn Bowl championship. He had the three big years for the Rams, then was down for a while, then re-emerged late in his career with the Cardinals. When you factor in his success in the NFL postseason, I think he definitely belongs in the Hall of Fame.
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Question 2: I've been playing fantasy football...
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | Jun. 11 at 05:21 AM
I was really surprised at how poorly Ike Bruce fared in your poll on Monday. The less flamboyant receivers seem to have a tough time getting recognition. I think Art Monk was up for HOF vote a bunch of times and didn't get in until his 4th or 5th try. As a Saints' fan I remember Bruce absolutely murdering us a number of times back in the old NFC West.