Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jun. 25 at 03:59 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I’ve always been a proponent of zigging whenever I feel the rest of the owners in my league are zagging. For years, the tried-and-true draft strategy was to “grab two RBs” with your first two picks. Over the past year or two, I’ve seen a lot of owners slowly straying from this and realizing the value of maybe snagging that stud WR or even an elite QB in rounds 1 or 2. In looking at this year’s crop of RBs, it appears that the days of teams having the one stud RB are evaporating, and there are more and more running back by committees (RBBCs) or just plain unsettled RB situations out there. That being said, I’m thinking the true stud RBs are becoming such a rare breed that it’s time to go back to the RB-RB theory in rounds 1 and 2 (assuming you can land two studs not in a RBBC). Your thoughts?
Matt Tinker [ORLEANS, VT]
A:
I don’t believe that more teams really are using the RBBC approach. I think we’re just talking about it more. Because when I look at the numbers, I see more guys rushing for over 1,000 yards and scoring 10-plus TDs than ever before. The Dolphins had a three-back attack in 1972 – Csonka, Morris and Kiick. The Steelers had a pair of 1,000-yard rushers in the mid-‘70s, and the Browns put Mack and Byner over 1,000 in 1985. John Riggins had a historically good season in 1983, scoring 24 TDs, but look at the numbers – Joe Washington also ran for 772 yards for that team. So this RBBC issue, I believe, has always been around. What’s slightly different, in my opinion, is the declining role of fullbacks – they’re a dying breed. It used to be that most teams would have a fullback who would run for 300-400 yards and score 4-5 TDs. Now teams either use one-back sets or use fullbacks strictly for blocking. This makes it physically impossible for the starting tailback to handle all of the load, so they spell the runner a little more with the No. 2 tailback. But overall, the starting tailbacks are still getting plenty of work. It’s just a little different. What was the question again? First two rounds? I think you draw up a list of the 20 guys who offer the most bang for the buck. Regardless of position, those are the guys I’d focus on.
Question 2:
Started reading the magazine last night -- it’s great as always. I was shocked, however, at how low you had Sidney Rice, particularly in TD leagues. Judging by the last half-dozen games it looked like he had made the leap into becoming the focus of the offense -- a Sterling Sharpe, 16-TDs-a-year kind of guy. I expect marginal talents like Shiancoe to fade into the background and for Rice to take over, like he did in the playoffs.
BILL REHOR [CULVER CITY, CA]
A:
I like Rice. Including the playoffs, he’s scored 12 TDs in his last 16 games. But is it realistic to expect him to catch 40-50 percent of his team’s TD passes (as the great receivers do)? I don’t see how. Shiancoe is an ordinary tight end, but he’s effective around the goal line; he caught 8 of 10 passes last year when the team was inside the 10 – Brett Favre looks for him down there. And Percy Harvin is a solid, emerging receiver as well – he’ll play a bigger role in his second season. And how about Bernard Berrian? And you have to figure that the Vikings will finish with fewer TD passes this year – they finished up at 34 last year, when everything when right for them. So to me, there’s no way to project that Rice will finish with 12 TDs.
Question 3:
Love the magazine! Just wondering your opinion on a mock rookie draft in a dynasty league. Top 12 to 14 guys.
Erich Ott [ROSEMOUNT, MN]
A:
I don’t see much difference between the top 3 running backs – C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews and Jahvid Best. They’d be the first three picks for me. Then maybe Dez Bryant and Golden Tate, who should be the best of the rookie receivers. In leagues where running backs are golden, it would probably make sense to then veer back to Ben Tate and Montario Hardesty. Then we’d be in the soft underbelly. Not much difference between the tight ends (Jermaine Gresham, Rob Gronkowski), receivers (Demaryius Thomas, Mike Williams Arrelious Benn), quarterbacks (Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow) and Toby Gerhart.
Question 4:
I was wondering if when you are ranking receivers, do you take into account the Revis effect? Guys like Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall will have to go against the Jets and Revis twice this year. If this year is like last, that is like two games with 2 catches and 23 yards. Marshall even plays him week one of the fantasy playoffs.
MICHAEL KOLTON [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
That’s a good point. Revis can be tough. But I don’t think you should let that affect your rankings too significantly. A year ago at this time, it was Nnamdi Asomugha who was the can’t-miss No. 1 corner – he shut down pretty much everyone he faced in 2008. But the two elite receivers in his division last year – Vincent Jackson and Brandon Marshall – still managed to finish the year with good numbers.
Question 5:
How do you see the Dallas running game breaking out this season? Felix replacing Julius Jones and pushing Barber back to a “closers” role, and mix in some Tashard Choice in a wildcat spot seems logical to me. Trouble is, I’m in a TD-only keeper league, so I’d rather you tell me how Felix Jones can score 10+ TDs.
JODY SMITH [LEAGUE CITY, TX]
A:
I don’t see it. I think Jones, Barber and Choice will all play significant roles.
Question 6:
I know it’s not even July … I’m getting the itch already. So last year it seemed as if it was the year of QBs and WRs. With just about all teams having multiple RBs is it pretty paramount that if you get a chance to get the guy that carries the single load (CJ, AP, MJD) that you have to do it? I’m assuming CJ, MJD, AP, Rice, SJax, Turner, Gore are the guys in no such order. Are these guys the player to get before the Brees or Andre Johnson in round 1?
Bill Petilli [MOUNT VERNON, NY]
A:
Brees is awesome, but there are plenty of other good quarterbacks – Manning, Romo, Rodgers, Rivers. Hard to justify selecting a quarterback in round one when you know that there will be a butt-kicker available in the second. So if you want to go non-running back, Andre Johnson could be your guy.
Question 7:
How far down does Sidney Rice fall on the WR list if Brett Favre doesn’t return? I’ve seen him in the 8-13 range, but all rankings pretty much are contingent on Favre returning.
David Hanley [WEST HARTFORD, CT]
A:
Where we’ve got him, we’re assuming Favre will return. If they wind up going with Tarvaris Jackson, Rice will definitely drop a few spots. Probably out of the top 20.
Question 8:
Really big, really tough decision and I would love your input. 12-team keeper league, regular scoring (no PPR), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 QB/RB/WR/TE, 1 TE. We have an expansion draft coming up and can only protect 3 players from expansion. We can only lose one player to the expansion draft. My two no-brainer protections are A. Peterson (4th round, 1 keep left) and Sidney Rice (last round, 3 keeps left). Here’s where it gets tricky. I have Vincent Jackson (3rd, 3), Jonathan Stewart (3rd, 3), Ronnie Brown (last, 1) and Brent Celek (last, 3). My thinking all along has been to protect VJax, but now with his holdout, his possible suspension, and the fact that he’s ‘at value’ I’m not so sure. Since you can only keep 1 guy from each round, VJax precluded me from keeping Stewart, but if I don’t protect VJax, would Stewart be the guy? Or should I go with Ronnie, as I love the value, but he can only be kept this one last time? Or is Celek the way to go?
nathan ouellette [SOMERSET, MA]
A:
No quarterback worth considering? You can start two quarterbacks, so I would have thought that a quarterback would get one of those spots. I think you’re looking at either Jackson or Stewart. Those are the guys I’d be looking at. Without knowing the exact scoring system, I’m guessing Stewart will be the guy.
Question 9:
I’m in a 14-team (16 if we can find two more coaches) semi-keeper auction-draft-style league. We can keep players from our 2009 rosters for a percentage of our 2010 draft dollar allotment based on each player’s performance from last year. I usually like to franchise my workhorse backs and build the rest of my team around them. That’s a slightly more difficult decision this season, as backs on my roster include Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson, and LeSean McCoy. Based on last year’s performance, the franchise cap rules will only allow me to keep two of them. Right now, my plan is to keep Rice and Mendenhall. Obviously, Rice is a great RB in a run-first offense. I think McGahee should have a little less of an impact on Rice’s numbers this year. With Roethlisberger missing at least the first four games, the theory is the Steelers will be leaning more heavily on Mendenhall. (The fact that I’m a Steeler fan may also be influencing my leaning toward keeping Mendy.) Ced Benson was a pleasant surprise last year. Arguments for... he’s clearly the workhorse in Cincy, and he’s playing for a contract extension, but I think he may wear down a little quicker than Mendenhall this year. Given his history, I also need to see more from him before I can be sure last season wasn’t a fluke. I picked up McCoy last year, guessing that Westbrook would probably by gone this year, and I could keep a third back with a lot of upside potential cheap this year, but he scored too much, putting him over my cap limit. I still like his upside, but of the four, I think he needs to be the first to be thrown back into the pool. Do you think I’m on track with my thoughts here?
Ron Uetz [Piscataway, NJ]
A:
Definitely. I think most everyone would rank Rice and Mendenhall ahead of Benson and McCoy. McCoy definitely isn’t up there with those guys – he didn’t even carry the ball as much as Leonard Weaver late last year.
Readers' Comments
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.
Question 1: I’ve always been a proponent...
Posted by DARYL DORSEY | Jun. 25 at 01:33 PM
Fellows, Now that is wisdom. Ian, great job & a True statement-way to brk it dwn.!! Love it. This is why I subscribe to this site!! Best of Luck to All! Daryl D.
Question 5: How do you see the...
Posted by Eugene Hitt | Jun. 25 at 01:24 PM
I'm sure you're familiar with Mr. Duane Stay, Ian and on June 16th in Andy Richardson's "Early ADP reaches, steals" article he said " The Fantasy Index experts draft that I recently had the honor of participating in, had Shonn Greene available with the 12th pick in the first round. I could have had Greene and Mendenhall with my first two picks. I chose to take Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne instead. I knew Manning and Wayne wouldn't be available by the time I had two more picks. I have to have proof that these two RB's are for real before I take them that high. I know what Manning and Wayne can do. My third and fourth picks, I took more chances, because I had to have RB's. LeSean McCoy and Felix Jones are RB's that I took a chance on. They could prove to be as good as Greene and Mendenhall. If McCoy and Jones stay healthy, I feel they will be my bonus, because Manning and Wayne will be a consistent duo". This seems directly opposite of what you said regarding both of those RB's in your answer's to questions above. Is Felix worth a 3rd round pick if you can also get Barber in the 4th, like on a wrap around, or should all managers who want to win avoid the Cowboy 3 headed monster like the plague? Being that Duane is in the Fantasy expert league with yourself I'm sure you have some smug comments saved up for his analysis of Felix's potential as a #1 RB... P.S. Didn't it take Westbrook like 3 years of splitting with Duce Staley before he finally became the feature guy in Philly? It would seem Andy Reid would take the same path on McCoy with M.Bell, L.Weaver and Ron Mexico in the fold...
Question 5: How do you see the...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jun. 25 at 09:44 PM
Eugene - just a note, neither Ian nor I are in the league that Duane is in; that's the one with 11 experts from other publications. Based on Ian's rankings, it appears he would have taken Mendenhall that high.
Question 5: How do you see the...
Posted by Miguel Tames | Jun. 26 at 02:23 AM
This is in response to Mr. Hitt being sure that Ian would have a smug comment about the Dallas RB situation. Let's say he does give a smug comment, neither Mr. Hitt or Mr. Stay should say anything, considering it was one of you who smugly called me Ian's # 1 fan after I agreed with him on something. And just to keep this as a fantasy football discussion, I don't see how Felix Jones is gonna score 10TD's splitting touches with Choice and having all his goal line opportunities taken away by Barber.
Question 5: How do you see the...
Posted by JODY SMITH | Jun. 26 at 11:15 AM
Notice that I wanted reasons how Jones could score 10+ (and I've seen him pegged at up to 11) this year. I wasn't making a statement that I think he will. I see Barber as being a guy who's taken a lot of punishment, and may be nearing the end. Choice is more of a prototypical tailback, but can he get the touches. Jones might have the break away speed, and he's bigger (6'0" 215) than you'd think, but you have to think most of his TD's will be from outside of 10 yards, which limits him in a TD only format. That being said, I don't think anyone will be able to give many real reasons Jones will break out in a huge way.
Question 5: How do you see the...
Posted by GREGORY BLAKE | Jun. 26 at 12:49 PM
Just a clarification on weight (from a Dallasite who hears more Cowboys news than he would care to) ... According to a report I heard a week or so ago, Jones has bulked up to 225 while Barber has slimmed down to 215.
Question 5: How do you see the...
Posted by JODY SMITH | Jun. 26 at 11:21 PM
Thanks for the update, Greg. That is surprising news, as I hear my regular fill of Cowboys news here in Houston. I'd have to think that Jones could lose his biggest asset, speed, if he's that big. More reasons to avoid the entire backfield altogether.
Question 5: How do you see the...
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jun. 27 at 04:14 AM
I wouldn't select Felix Jones or LeSean McCoy in the third round of a draft. I don't have any smug comments about either guy, but I just don't see them being used extensively enough. At the end of last year, the Eagles were using Leonard Weaver just as much as McCoy, and I think Mike Bell will be their goal-line guy. With the Cowboys, I expect Marion Barber and Tashard Choice will also be worked in.
Question 8: Really big, really tough decision...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jun. 25 at 04:33 AM
I am in a 12 team league that allows a flex QB. I won it 2 years running by starting 2 Qbs. Qbs score more points than RBs or WRs so my advice is get two good QBs and start them both. I also only draft 1 K (Hartley. Dome winning team that scores a lot, wk 10 bye) and 1 D (SF . undervalued this year, wk 9 bye)with late bye weeks. I grab extra QBs with sleeper value (Henne, Stafford, Smith, Anderson) for extra depth and for trade bait.
Question 8: Really big, really tough decision...
Posted by nathan ouellette | Jun. 25 at 05:44 AM
I won this league last year and did it with Peyton Manning at QB and Jay Cutler about 1/2 the time in the flex spot. Manning is not eligible to be kept. I took Cutler in the 5th last year and if I want Cutler I'm sure I can get him there (or later) in this year's draft. So, unfortunately, QB is not a consideration for me. Scoring is TD=6, 1yd (rush or rec) is 0.1pts. there is a 2pt bonus for a 100-yd performance (eitber rush or rec., not combined). Now that you know the scoring system, still going with Stewart? Speaking of Stewart, do you see it as more of a true time-share this year (it was about 2-1 for DeAngelo when he was healthy last year), or is it the same as last year and you expect more injuries for DeAngelo? Thank You