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Jackson has been suspended for the first three weeks of the season. That makes me far more interested in using a late round pick on Malcom Floyd or Legedu Naanee. San Diego’s first three games are all against soft opposition – Kansas City, Jacksonville and Seattle. So I think those receivers, while not in Jackson’s class, have some value in those matchups. Antonio Gates also should play a slightly bigger role. That interest in Floyd and Naanee, of course, will extend if the Chargers wind up dealing Jackson, but what’s the probability of that actually happening? 40 percent? If San Diego moves Jackson, I will view it as a significant blow to Rivers. Rivers is a capable quarterback, but Jackson is a big part of that offense. You don’t replace him with a Floyd or Naanee and not expect some dropoff. Jackson is one of the legit, playmaker receivers – 6-foot-5, fast, and with a big, physical build. Think of how great Darrelle Revis played last year, shutting down pretty much everyone he faced. Jackson caught 7 passes for 111 yards against Revis in the playoffs. If he’s removed from the San Diego offense, I figure that will cost Rivers maybe 15-20 passing yards per game, as well as maybe 3 TD passes.

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A:

When I was in college, I debated this issue with a economics professor. His conclusion was that players would be more likely to be cautious in a contract year – that they’d want to make sure they didn’t get injured, lowering their value. I’ve never heard anyone else use that line of reasoning. I think the more common perception is that players tend to player harder and take more risks in those contract years, setting themselves up to sign bigger contracts. And I’m not sure you can put one contract-year label on every player – they don’t all behave the same way. I think the whole contract-year deal is overblown. In today’s game, probably half the players in the league are in contract years – if they don’t play up to the value of their contract, they get released. Let’s look at it this way. Let’s wind the clock back a year and look at the guys who were entering contract years – you can decide whether you wish you had drafted a bunch of them. Quarterbacks: Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell. Running backs: Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Pierre Thomas, Ronnie Brown, Darren Sproles, Cadillac Williams, LenDale White. Tight ends: Owen Daniels, Benjamin Watson. Wide receivers: Braylon Edwards, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Bryant, Terrell Owens, Nate Burleson, Chris Chambers. A few of those guys had good years, but overall, I don’t think their production any different than what I would expect the year after they signed a contract or the year before they entered their contract year. My rule of thumb is to elevate a player only if he makes it clear that he’s gunning for a new contract – maybe he’ll show up in great shape and talk about how he wants to play well and get a big contract.

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Decide on the players you think should be drafted. Probably about 270 total players in your league. Some of those players – many of those players – are going to be selected for only the $1 minimum. Maybe 15-20 percent. You can use the historical results of your past auctions as a guide. If there are 25 quarterbacks selected, for example, probably only 17 will go for more than minimum (and you may figure that of the eight who’ll go for the $1 minimum, your 14th-best quarterback might be that guy. That may be the point where you’re willing to pay no more than $1 for those remaining 10 quarterbacks. If you make only 13 quarterbacks worth more than $1, that will reduce the value of the top guys. If you decide that quarterback No. 20 is worth paying more than the $1 salary, that will increase the value of the quarterbacks at the top of your board. Follow this process at each position. You have a flex position, so the baseline stat value (the projected fantasy points for each guy) might be the same for running backs and wide receivers – you may want to simply consider that one position. After you’ll settled on how many players are worth no more than the $1 minimum, you can build your board from the back end. The remaining money should be allocated in the same way the stats are allocated – lining up with the production above and beyond those baseline values. This can be done through our website, where your scoring system and dollar values will be merged with our player projections.

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The answer varies with scoring system, of course, by I think you’ll see Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson selected with the first two picks in most leagues. And Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew will probably be next. I like the idea of Michael Turner; he’s lost some weight and plays for a good team. He should have a very good year, but he doesn’t catch many passes. I think Andre Johnson has to be worked in there at some point; he looks very solid. I also think it makes sense to start picking quarterbacks in that range. With quarterbacks, though, it’s doesn’t make much sense to select one with a top-10 pick if the vast majority of your league doesn’t select them until after 20 players are gone. With that kind of mentality, it makes far more sense to select that difference-maker quarterback in maybe the third round. But in most scoring systems, the stat projections dictate that the best quarterbacks should be picked in the top 10.

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