Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 09 at 04:34 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
What is your view on when to draft a QB in a 12-team league with 4 pts for a passing TD? Many people believe you should wait a few rounds to draft a QB so you can solidify the RB and WR position.
MIKE STOCKE [MT PROSPECT, IL]
A:
Let’s look at it this way. Suppose you wait on a quarterback until the ninth round. Who do you think you’ll get there? Probably a top-15 quarterback on your board – Carson Palmer or Donovan McNabb, perhaps. Then consider what running backs and wide receivers will be available in that same ninth round. One way of determining a player’s overall value is to measure him relative to those later-round options. If you figure Carson Palmer will score 300 points in your scoring system, for example, then maybe Drew Brees (400 points) is worth 100 points – 400 minus 300. And maybe that comes in less than Michael Turner, who perhaps projects to score fewer points (260) but comes in 120 points ahead of the running backs you think will be there in the ninth. If you follow this line of reasoning, then I think you’ll find that quarterbacks like Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are arguably worth top 5 picks in your draft. The problem, however, is that you have to then balance those calculations against what you think the other guys in your league will do. Using the same formula, Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers also are worth selecting with the first dozen picks. It doesn’t make much sense to select Brees in the first round if you think there’s a good chance you’ll get Romo about 25 or 30 picks into the draft.
Question 2:
Ryan Mathews is ranked No. 10 in the running backs article, but he’s the 16th-ranked running back on the keeper league cheat sheet. What gives?
Scott Liles [RUSSELLVILLE, AR]
A:
One is based on 2010. For purely the 2010 season, I’ve got Mathews at the 10th-best running back on the board. The other measures long-term value, where a player’s current situation becomes less important and more weight is given to his overall talent. In that type of format, I think it makes sense to drop Mathews a few spots. I mean, who is this guy really? Can he play? Or is he more of an ordinary back who would have been selected in the second round of a typical NFL draft? I think C.J. Spiller is better than him. Beanie Wells, Shonn Greene, Jonathan Stewart and Jamaal Charles have done more to show that they can perform at the NFL level. But in my eyes, there’s little difference between these guys.
Question 3:
We all hate scoring arguments in our fantasy leagues. So, my friend, I am concerned about a discrepancy in your experts poll and the potential uproar that could result. I would point out to you that in the RBs poll, Mr. Serra has 1, 2, 3 as CJ, AP, MJD. However, in the Overall poll (which I’m not sure if the overall rankings are used in the scoring or just for informational purposes in the mag), he has them ranked CJ, MJD, AP. I do not know if he forgot which RB he liked better, or if that is simply a clerical error ... but either way, you could have a serious issue on your hands. As one fanatic to another, I am glad to have helped you avoid this potentially disastrous situation ... especially if Mr. Serra is the “hot-head” owner of that group. (Hey, we all have one!)
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
There are usually a couple of these types of errors in the poll. Guys will list the same player twice, have a different order in the overall or get a name wrong. I’ve got an e-mail out to Serra (who won the poll last year) but I’m guessing that he had everything put together, then at the last minute decided to put Adrian Peterson ahead of Maurice Jones-Drew (forgetting that changing it at running back would require him to also make the chance in his overall). I can assure you, by the way, that Serra is not a hot head -- he's an easy-going, regular guy.
Question 4:
I’m worried about your Eli Manning optimism. His numbers went up a bunch last year, but couldn’t that be attributed to the Giants defensive collapse forcing Eli to throw much more often? Isn’t it likely that a better defense in 2010 will allow Tom Coughlin to resume his conservative ways?
DAVID GARRICK [Coronado, CA]
A:
I like the point. I like the way you think. But I think Manning is for real, and that he’s a different quarterback than he’s been in the past. He’s more experienced, he has better receivers, and the Giants simply can’t run the ball like they have in the past. Most importantly, note that Manning was putting up big numbers last year long before the team’s defensive problems became an issue. New York started last season with a 5-0 record.
Question 5:
My question centers around the injury to Donald Driver. James Jones is the favorite to win the starting position if Driver doesn’t come back healthy. However, I like Jordy Nelson better. He is on my short list for break out WRs this year. What are your thoughts or insights with regards to my question.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
That’s the issue with those guys, isn’t it? Everyone agrees that Jones or Nelson will be a good receiver within a few years, but it’s not clear which guy it will be. Now that Driver has undergone offseason knee surgeries, the question is becoming more pressing. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel had an article on this earlier in the week. They reported that Jones has been getting the work with the first-unit offense while Driver has been out. I can’t say it with full confidence, but I think Jones has separated himself from Nelson, who seems to be more of tall, straight-line, outside receiver.
Question 6:
I run a keeper league (one player keeper), and approve all trades, including offseason trades for players and draft picks. Our player trade values have been getting diminished recently due to some owners giving away too much for too little (Chris Johnson for a 9th rounder last year!). What rules have you seen in leagues with keepers to keep trade values in check? I don’t want to remove the creativity in trading that my owners have, but I also recognize there needs to be something done to improve trade values in 2011. Thanks! Also: I have been reading your magazine since I was 11! 18 years later, I still love when July 1 comes around, and continuing my playoff streak!
Matthew McKenna [Hilliard, OH]
A:
I don’t think any rules changes are in order. A ninth-rounder is probably about what Johnson was worth. I assume the team had another player that it viewed as being more valuable, so it was stuck trying to unload a player for anything, knowing it would otherwise lose him for nothing. Nobody else, apparently, was willing to pony up a sixth-round pick, or that deal would have been made. I expect you’ll see more of these types of trades in the future. The best 12 players should tend to be the guys who get protected. When one team has more than one of these guys, it will try to pick up some nominal bonus via trade – a reward for having a talented team the previous season. I don’t think a rules correction is needed.
Question 7:
Who do you see as late-round or waiver options at QB for Week 15-16? Does Chad Henne look like a good choice vs. Buff and Detroit?
Scott Kopischke [MENOMONEE FALLS, WI]
A:
I agree that the Dolphins appear to be a good bet to perform well in those games. They’ve got two lesser opponents, and both of those games are at home. Let’s also keep an eye on another team from the same state. The Bucs in those weeks also have a pair of home against seemingly lesser opposition – Detroit and Seattle. Tampa Bay isn’t quite in Miami’s class, of course, but maybe Josh Freeman and some of his teammates will help fantasy franchises that month. The Rams probably will be the worst team in the league; they’re playing Kansas City and San Francisco in those weeks.
Question 8:
Thanks for publishing your magazine for the 21 years our league has been in existence. The Cheat Sheets and the customized rankings make your business first-rate. In a 10-team basic scoring league (with bonuses for 100-yard games), we have to retain four players. I’m debating which four to keep out of S.Greene, C.Benson, R.White, Austin, Favre, and Calvin Johnson. At present, I know you rank Benson the highest of all these choices. However, I suffered through a lot of middling starts from him last year (6 TDs total, no multi-TD games, despite several 100-yard bonuses), and I’m thinking the Bengals have limited upside this year. Calvin Johnson, on the other hand, scored almost as much as Benson last season in what was considered a down year for him. Thus, I’m thinking that any of my three receivers are better keeper options than Benson. I’m a Jets fan, so I’m also partial to Greene. Can you give me a good reason not to release Benson? (I may be able to re-draft him anyway or upgrade with my first draft choice.)
Andrew Paterson [FERNDALE, WA]
A:
I’m on board with protecting the three wide receivers. They’re definitely your top 3. So which way to go with the fourth? Brett Favre is too old, and he’s a quarterback. Shonn Greene is younger than Benson. Plus you’re a Jets fan.
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Question 2: Ryan Mathews is ranked No....
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jul. 10 at 12:03 AM
Like the magazine says, Stewart can become a top 5 RB if Williams goes down. That moves him to the head of these guys.
Question 4: I’m worried about your Eli...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jul. 10 at 12:05 AM
Eli has always been an after thought with me. You put him on my radar. Every year you do that with a few players who help me win. Thanks.
Question 4: I’m worried about your Eli...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jul. 10 at 12:13 AM
That said, I glad to be able to finally give you a tip. Raise Kolb way up your list. Like to about #6. A local reporter just said he sees 30-35 TDs from Kolb. Me too.
Question 4: I’m worried about your Eli...
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jul. 10 at 12:41 AM
Ray Didinger, a Hall of Fame football writer, just advised people not to overestimate Kolb. But he then predicted 3500 yards and 25 TDs and added "He may well exceed it."
Question 6: I run a keeper league...
Posted by Robert Stolz | Jul. 10 at 12:17 AM
But by trading CJ for a ninth round pick, you are ensuring he will not be available in the free agent pool this year (i.e. he will be kept by the other team). It depends on how draft order is determined, but before I took a 9th round pick for CJ, I would want to know what my chances were of actually drafting him this year and getting him back!