Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 02 at 05:04 PM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
LT and Steven Jackson are the consensus top two picks, but things are muddled after that. Larry Johnson (holdout), Shaun Alexander (age) and Frank Gore (durability) have major question marks that make me pause. Joseph Addai (offensive line) and Willie Parker (new coaching regime) also have issues. So if I miss out on either of the top two picks, would it be better to try and draft toward the end of the first round, where Peyton Manning, Travis Henry and Willis McGahee might be better value picks?
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
I like the theory. I tried, in fact, to trade out of the No. 3 spot in an experts draft hosted by www.fanexfootball.com (nobody was interested and I wound up selecting Reggie Bush No. 3 in a league giving 1 point per reception). The advantage of trading down to the bottom of the first round is that you might get a player who’s pretty similar to the guy you would have taken up at No. 3 or 4 – plus an earlier choice in the second round.
When I push around my stat projections, however, those earlier spots in the first round – Nos. 3-5 – still project to be more valuable than the later choices. You may have to select a player you’re not really excited about early in the draft, but there’s a steeper dropoff in the third round than in the second. According to the numbers (at least my numbers), there’s only a 12-point difference between the first and last players in the second round (in a 12-team league), but there’s a 21-point dropoff in the third round.
If I were selecting for all 12 teams, then after four rounds, the teams would be ordered almost exactly by draft order: One (372 total “bang-for-your-buck” points), Two (310), Three (297), Four (277), Five (274), Seven (267), Six (267), Eight (267), Nine (267), Ten (261), Eleven (258) and Twelve (249).
Bottom line: the top 2 spots project to have a big advantage this year. After that, there’s not much difference, with results probably varying from draft to draft.
Question 2:
I'm in a 10-team keeper league with a scoring system and structure that makes RB's very valuable. It is very compelling, if not a necessity, to start three RB's every week (2 RB's + one flex). That said, I have the #1 overall pick (= LT), and also have Ronnie Brown as a 5th round keeper. I can keep one additional player and am torn between using pick 4.10 on Deuce McAllister or pick 7.01 on Marion Barber III. I then intend to select 2 WR's with picks 2.10 an 3.01 to round out my starting RB's and WR's. If you followed all that, should I keep MBIII and free up my fourth round pick for a decent WR or RB for my bench. Or, should I keep Deuce and know that my starting 3 RB's (LT, Ronnie Brown, and Deuce) are quite formidable ?
STEVEN MATH [SAN ANTONIO, TX]
A:
I’m not sure I’d keep either one of those guys. McAllister, in my opinion, is only about the No. 44 player on the board in that type of format, so I wouldn’t be excited about using pick No. 40 to keep him. If you keep that pick, you’ll probably get a player ranked in the top 30. Same deal with Barber; he’s the No. 69 player, according to my ballpark numbers; why forfeit the No. 70 pick to protect him?
I don’t agree with the theory that you need to have a running back in that flex role. It’s a nice luxury in that it allows you to use a player in a double role – that player backs up both starting tailbacks and gets to play himself at the same time. But in a points-per-reception format, wide receivers who catch 80-90 balls are awfully valuable. According to my numbers, wide receivers like T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Reggie Wayne, Lee Evans, Marques Colston and Donald Driver are going to score 60-plus points more than running backs like Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson, Ronnie Brown and Deuce McAllister.
So you’re forfeiting a lot of production for that luxury of having an insurance policy behind your starting tailbacks. I think you would do better to assume you’ll be starting four wides and two running backs each week. Maybe fill that No. 3 running back spot with a lesser player – LaMont Jordan, Jerious Norwood or a waiver guy you pick up during the season.
Question 3:
I'm confused by your relatively low ranking of Kevin Kolb in the Rookie Roll Call section of the magazine, which is geared for keeper/dynasty leagues. You frequently wax poetic about Andy Reid's penchant for calling pass plays, especially in the red zone. But you have Kolb rated below John Beck and Drew Stanton for the long-term. Beck is already age 26 and Cam Cameron called a near-record number of red zone running plays last year in San Diego. Stanton plays for Mike Martz, who may not be in Detroit for long and who calls lots of running plays in the red zone. I would think Kolb should be rated No. 3 for the long-term, and possibly higher than No. 2 Brady Quinn based on Reid's play-calling and his likely long tenure in Philly. Can you explain your reasoning?
DAVID GARRICK [SAN DIEGO, CA]
A:
If Donovan McNabb gets hurt again, then I’ll wish we had ranked Kolb No. 1 or 2. That’s a passer-friendly system, and he could be pretty good. But what if McNabb doesn’t get hurt in either 2007 or 2008? Then where are we? I see Beck’s age as a plus, not a minus. I’m not so much concerned about him reaching age 36 earlier than those other guys, I’m looking more at how soon a player can get in the lineup and start producing. And in Beck’s case, I’m confident that he’ll be Miami’s starter by the end of the year. That’s not a lot of talent in front of him (Trent Green? Cleo Lemon?) and with that extra age and experience, Beck should be ready to play successfully earlier than those other guys.
Stanton is a hit-or-miss guy. If the Lions play well enough that Mike Martz is back in 2008, then Stanton could be in a really sweet spot (assuming the team ditches Jon Kitna and gives him the job). Detroit is loaded at wide receiver, and Martz’s teams tend to rank in the top 5 in passing every year. And if it doesn’t go down that way? Well, maybe you’ll be able to release Stanton and pick up Kolb, who might be sitting on waivers in your league at that time anyway.
Again: not much difference between these guys. If you see something you like in Kolb in the preseason games, by all means, go ahead and draft him.
Question 4:
I have your 2007 fantasy guide and am on board with most of your forecasts. However, I believe Ronnie Brown's underwhelming past performance stems chiefly from an overmatched head coach (Saban) and an OC (Mularkey) that has never produced an effective running game. The holdover O-Line coach is one of the best, and now with a head coach that sees the whole picture offensively, I see a breakout year for Brown. Not LT, of course, but a possible top-5 RB. Any chance you'll change your expectations? (And no, I'm no "Dolphin Apologist"...)
Paul Desimone [HAYWARD, CA]
A:
I’m not a Brown fan. He really didn’t do much at Auburn, where he played second fiddle behind Cadillac Williams. And he hasn’t done much of anything in his two years in the pros. Ricky Williams outplayed him two years ago. And when Brown got hurt last year, Sammy Morris stepped in and actually gave the running game a little lift. With Brown, all the measurables are there, but I don’t see any magic in his feet. He’s a muggle runner. And Miami’s offensive line might be the worst in the league. I’ll be very surprised if Brown is a top-15 back.
Question 5:
Why do you have such a man-crush on Lee Evans?! I know he's a good receiver, but I can think of a lot more reasons why he'll have the same type of season he did last year versus reasons why he'll make that leap to a top 5 WR. Not the least of which are Buffalo's un-Godly brutal schedule and JP Losman's unpredictability.
BARRY BROWN [Columbus, OH]
A:
Looking at the schedule, it does appear to be pretty tough. The easiest games are a pair against Miami (which might again have a pretty good defense) and a game at Washington. The other three potentially easy games all come in the final five weeks of the season – Washington, Cleveland and the Giants. Some of those supposedly tough teams, however, no doubt will crash and burn. You never really know with scheduling. And if Lee Evans does exactly what he did last season, that won’t be all that bad: 82 catches, 1,292 yards and 8 TDs. He scored, by the way, in each of his last three games against teams that finished with at least eight wins.
Question 6:
Ian, With the " Mailbag's " own emmision of D.J. Hackett having the inside track on the starting WR spot opposite D.Branch, along with his "sleeper" status in the magazine, Do you value him more than Vernon Davis in a keeper league?
Eugene Hitt [Garrison, NY]
A:
In a league that separates tight ends and wide receivers, I wouldn’t select Hackett before Davis. Davis is a physical freak who potentially could become a real difference-maker at his position. I couldn’t bypass him to select a wide receiver who’s never been an NFL starter before. But if you’re in a league that combines wideouts and tight ends into one “receiver” category, then things start to get more interesting. According to my stat projections, if Hackett wins a starting job and stays in the lineup for 16 games, he’s going to be over 10 percent more productive than Davis this year. And at this point, I’m comfortable making the assumption that Hackett will be a year-long starter. So I’d definitely select him over Davis for the 2007 season. When you start talking keeper league, it would start to become a tougher decision.
Question 7:
I am in a 10 team league where we start 1QB, 2RBs, 3WR/TE, 1 DST and 1K. We award defensive points (+7 to -7) for yardage allowed and for points allowed and award 2 pts for TOs and 6 for DTDs. Under this system, the top defense or two each year finishes in the top 20 for fantsasy points. I've done a simple VBD analysis (based on how many more pts the top 2 DSTs will score over the number 10 starting DST). The analysis suggests that the top 2 DSTs (Chicago and Baltimore on my sheet) have more value than the number 11 RB, #4-5 WR and all QBs except Manning. I know that there is less scarcity as I can pick up DSTs for matchups (but it costs money in my league) so my question is, is it worth taking say the Bears with my pick at the end of the 5th round?
Brian Chmura [DURHAM, NC]
A:
I don’t think so. Not that high. Defenses may have a lot of upside in your league, but you’re not really sure you’re going to get that production. You have to be sure to use 2007 projections rather than 2006 stats. The Ravens, for example, were supposed to be really good in 2005 but they sputtered pretty badly that season (weren’t even a top-10 defense). And some good defenses will be available later in your draft – San Diego, Dallas, New England. So to me, it doesn’t make sense to use a top-50 pick on Chicago or Baltimore, when there are some really terrific receivers still on the board. I’d wait a few more rounds on a defense – maybe Chicago or Baltimore falls to the seventh round, or maybe you grab one of those other defenses in the ninth or 10th.
Question 8:
I ask this question almost every year...but our league has a 5th round keeper rule, which means whoever we pick in the 5th round you must keep on your roster and you get him the following year. If he is a bust you have to hold onto him until the next year's draft. Last year my pick of Daunte Culpepper didn't work out too well. I pick 9th so I know if Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or Marshawn Lynch make it to that round, they will go top 3. So who would you recommend targeting in this round? What would you think of taking Michael Turner (kind of high for a backup, but could start next year)? I was also considering the Bears defense, even though 49th pick is high for a defense, but I would have a top D for 2 years and they can't all get hurt.
MICHAEL KOLTON [GREEN BAY, WI]
A:
I would love to get Turner in that round. He’ll be a top-20 player overall next year. And I like the reasoning behind selecting Chicago’s defense as well. You’ll be selecting about 50-60 players into the deal, so probably the best values at that time will be wide receivers. Maybe a guy like Lee Evans or Marques Colston will be available. Receivers don’t tend to get hurt, so I think it’s reasonable to anticipate that those receivers – and others like them – will still be around and productive next season.
Question 9:
Congratulations on your 20th season covering fantasy football! We know the age of 30 is generally the point at which most RB's 'hit the wall' in terms of production, but have you ever crunched the numbers to see what the high-water mark is in terms of career carries a RB can/will endure, before 'hits the wall'?
Rob Dammers [MORRIS PLAINS, NJ]
A:
I’m not a believer in the theory that runners can’t be productive at 30. We’re seeing way too many having productive seasons at 30 and 31 years of age. Tiki Barber ran for over 1,600 yards, for example, as both a 30 and a 31.
Trying to gauge running backs by a different odometer – carries – I don’t believe would work. There are too many other factors. The style of the runner, the body type and simply how much work they get at a young age. Mike Anderson and Antowain Smith, for example, both entered the league as older guys, but it would be ridiculous to expect those guys to then continue to be productive into their late 30s, just because they weren’t logging NFL carries in the early 20s.
Nevertheless, I did spend a few minutes exploring this topic. I looked at the career stats of each of the top 10 rushers in NFL history. I made note of the season that each permanently moved under the 4.0-yard-per-carry mark.
Four of the backs, I found, don’t fit the profile. Jim Brown and Barry Sanders both walked away from the game early (Brown at 29, Sanders at 30), never averaging below 4.3 yards per carry. Marshall Faulk averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in his final season, and Marcus Allen averaged 4.3, 4.0 and 4.1 in his final three seasons, all at 35-plus years old.
The other six:
Emmitt Smith: His last season over 4.0 yards per carry came when he was 31 – 3,537 carries into his career.
Walter Payton: Last season came at 32 (3,692 carries into his career).
Jerome Bettis: Last season came at 29 (2,686 carries). Bettis, however, also finished under 4.0 yards per carry five earlier times in his career.
Curtis Martin: 31 and 3,298.
Eric Dickerson: 30 and 2,616.
Tony Dorsett: 32 and 2,625.
Question 10:
Ian - I am in a 14-team keeper league that starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 RB/WR flex, 1 DEF, 1K, and mandatory TE. Draft is 15-round serpentine, and all TDs are 6 points. I am trying to decide whether to keep Vernon Davis or Philip Rivers; regardless of who I choose, I will lose an eighth round pick. To me, Vernon has tremendous upside and if I have to start a TE, choosing him could give me a stud TE for the next few years. But Rivers in the 8th round gives me a guy in a Norv Turner system who can be a solid starter if I can't land a stud QB in the earlier rounds, and he's young with a lot of upside as well. I need somebody to help me turn the corner on this one. Thanks.
Tru Livaudais [Tuscaloosa, AL]
A:
I have some interest in Rivers. There’s more scarcity of quarterbacks in a 14-team league, and selecting him with an eighth round pick (about 110 players in) would give you the flexibility to address the quarterback position on your own terms. You could select a franchise-type guy if one slipped in the draft. Or you could make Rivers your starter; tag-team him with a comparable QB (perhaps Jay Cutler or Brett Favre). But Davis is higher on my board and could be headed for a breakout year. At worst, he’ll give you average production at that position (in comparison to the other 13 teams in your league). Davis is the guy I would protect.
Question 11:
My question centers around the running back situation in San Francisco. Frank Gore has a history of injuries; now with the broken hand, would it be a good idea to keep Michael Robinson as a handcuff. Gore is on another team but I would have room on my roster to keep him.
JOHN SHELBROCK [FRANKENMUTH, MI]
A:
Robinson looks like a pretty good No. 2 back to me. A couple of times I saw him last year, I thought he might develop into something. He was mostly a quarterback at Penn State, recall. And with the punishment Gore takes, I imagine Robinson will start a few games.
Question 12:
I am in a 10 team keeper league, we can keep three players and our scoring system is:
Completions (1)
Passing Yards (50 yards per point)
Passing Touchdowns (4)
Interceptions (-2)
Rushing Attempts (1)
Rushing Yards (20 yards per point)
Rushing Touchdowns (6)
Receptions (1)
Reception Yards (20 yards per point)
Reception Touchdowns (6)
We can keep each player a maximum of 3 years, this is our leagues second year. I am keeping Laurence Maroney and Maurice Jones-Drew. For my third player I am unsure of whether I should keep Vince Young or Marques Colston. Both seem to have tremendous upside, if you have any thoughts on the matter I would appreciate it.
Colt Guthridge [HINDSBORO, IL]
A:
I’d keep Colston. Receivers are more valuable than quarterbacks, and I think Colston will be a top-10 player at his position this year. Your scoring system is unusual (not that rushing yards are more than twice as valuable as passing yards, which favors a QB like Young) and I haven’t run the numbers on it, but I’m pretty confident that Colston definitely will be your guy (assuming he or Drew Brees doesn’t get hurt in the preseason).
Question 13:
Hey Ian, love the magazine,been buying it since 1991 (stupid Randall Cunningham). Anyway, in a 10 team league which starts 2 QBs, 3 RBs, 3 WRs, TE, K, D, and a flex WR/RB. Curious to see what your strategy/top 50 would be in this format. I'm thinking that QBs should still slide up the rankings, but with the 3rd starting RB (plus a potential 4th) that WRs won't move up as much as a similar league with only 2 RBs and/or no flex.
James Wimmers [CHARLOTTE, NC]
A:
I think you’ll see lots of quarterbacks going early. Some kind of supply and demand thing. Top 50 should look something like this …
LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Peyton Manning, Frank Gore, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Brian Westbrook, Travis Henry, Joseph Addai, Tom Brady, Reggie Bush, Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Steve Smith, Laurence Maroney, Willie Parker, Willis McGahee, Torry Holt, Marc Bulger, Rudi Johnson, Tony Romo, Marvin Harrison, Maurice Jones-Drew, Lee Evans, Terrell Owens, Cedric Benson, Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Donovan McNabb, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Jon Kitna, Edgerrin James, Matt Hasselbeck, Marques Colston, Donald Driver, Vince Young, Marshawn Lynch, Ronnie Brown, Deuce McAllister, Larry Fitzgerald, Javon Walker, Ben Roethlisberger, Ahman Green, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Brett Favre, Brandon Jacobs, Jay Cutler, Roy Williams, Plaxico Burress.
Question 14:
Hey Ian. Our 12 team league uses team defense; no special teams. We get 1 point for takeaways, 2 points for safetys and .5 point per sack. Shutouts merit 10 points, 2-6 points allowed 7 points and 7-9 points allowed 3 points. Less than 100 rushing yards 5 points and less than 200 net passing yards 5 points. Given this scoring system, which defenses move considerably up or down in your rankings? Thanks.
Billy LeRoy [YUMA, AZ]
A:
I’m not set up to cleanly translate numbers for plateau-style scoring systems, but it looks like Denver would move up the most – up from 13 to about 6th. Buffalo would drop the most, from 19th to 27th. In general, the rankings look pretty similar.
Question 15:
I was wondering if you could help me out with a sticky keeper situation. You gave me great advice last year so I was hoping to hit you up again. A little back story first: I am in a ten-team quasi keeper league where you keep your roster from last year and have the option of protecting one player per round or you may enter the round and draft. For example, I have LT, Westbrook and Bush from last year's team. I can declare LT protected in round one but Bush and Westbrook become fair game in that round. Should Bush last to the second round, then I have the option of keeping him and so it goes. Here is my dilema: I have had LT for three straight years now and have finished 12-2 all three years but have yet to win the big one (two 2nds and 1 third) I am thinking of offering LT to another team for their 2nd round pick plus Steve Smith and Travis Henry. I am considering hanging on to Bush who I am certain will be taken from me in the first round while I protect LT. Do you think it wise to make the move to the future now? I also think I will ask for a third round pick in '08 to whoever makes the trade (looking to deal with the Smith/Henry owner first though). I know most people would think me crazy but Bush could be like LT for six or seven years while I think LT has two peak years left. I would really appreciate your thoughts on the matter and as always great job with the magazine and website.
PS The cover curse alone should make me do it ;-)
CHRISTOPHER FLUCK [PHILADELPHIA, PA]
A:
I think that trade definitely makes sense for the 2007 season. If you look at just “bang for your buck” production, Tomlinson projects to give you 195 fantasy points (according to my numbers). That’s production above and beyond a normal running back. You’d essentially be trading him for Bush, Smith, Henry and something like the 15th-best player in the draft. The bang-for-your-buck numbers on those guys adds up to about 360 – significantly higher. The only problem is next year – you won’t be able to protect all those guys. And I’m not as sold as you on the theory that Reggie Bush is going to go on a seven-year Tomlinson-like run.
Question 16:
I am in a league that allows QBs to be the flex AND gives 6 pts for all TDs.
-2 for INT's.
Would you recommend going early with 2 great QBs and waiting on the scraps for RBs?
It is also a PPR format.15 yds = 1 pt for receivers though as opposed to 10 =1 for RBs.
David Zendano [N LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
I think you’ll see most of the teams trying to fill that flex spot with a quarterback. According to my board, 20 of the 40 top producers in your league will be quarterbacks. It would be nice, obviously, to get one of those guys plugged into that flex spot.
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Question 1: LT and Steven Jackson are...
Posted by Erick Jones | Aug. 06 at 11:49 AM
Is that a straight or modified snake draft? One league I'm in with the 10th pick of 12 teams gives me picks #10,15, and 27. I'm very happy with this slot versus the 4, 21, 33rd for example. Thoughts?
Question 4: I have your 2007 fantasy...
Posted by Paul Desimone | Aug. 03 at 05:31 AM
Your points are well-taken, and I can't argue Brown's resume. My only response is that he runs hard and gives second-and-third efforts (which is what you need behind a shaky line), and will get the chance to wear down defenses under Cameron. I hope you're surprised in the end, and that I am delighted, since he's the best RB I've got in a keeper league. Thanks for your time.