Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Jul. 23 at 04:18 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
Is there any way to incorporate Points Allowed in the defensive scoring system on the customized auction sheets? That’s a big part of our scoring — a shutout is worth more than 2 TDs — so I don’t feel I’m seeing accurate values on my sheet.
BILL REHOR [CULVER CITY, CA]
A:
I’ll look into it. We’ll get that worked in there on the next version of that software. But I don’t think it’s anything you should get too worried about. Shutouts are rare – practically impossible. In the last six years, there have been only 47 of them. That’s less than eight per year – an average of one per division. So even with the very best defenses, you’re hoping for two shutouts. For this year, I would set the over-under for the Jets at 1.4 shutouts; they seem to have the best defense. For every other defense, I would save the probability of getting a shutout this season isn’t much better than about 50 percent. I will go with the 49ers, playing in the NFC Worst, as my No. 1 shutout producing team. If you want to look into defenses more – rather, what we think of them – see out stat download file. It comes in an Excel format and has projected points allowed for each team. The top 10, in order, are the Jets, Colts, Steelers, Vikings, Bengals, Cowboys, Ravens, Washington, 49ers and Broncos.
Question 2:
I just ordered the magazine, so this question might be answered in it. I am having an auction draft in one of my leagues for the first time and I am looking for some basic strategy tips. I have seen a number of responses in your mailbag about the idea of getting a team worth more value than what the values recommend. That certainly makes sense. I’m not sure where the values are going to arrive, however. Part of me wants the other guys to spend their wads early and I’m thinking of putting up players I don’t want and hoping they bid them up to an overvalued price, therefore leaving me with extra bucks later on. I’m also concerned that if I play the game too well, I might wind up being the only one with money and wind up leaving money on the table, which can’t be the correct strategy. I’m also thinking that I should try and get some top-tiered players, as I don’t think I want a solid middle-of-the-road team with a lot of iffy choices. In any event, my question to you is what strategy do you employ when you nominate players at the beginning of the draft in an auction league? Do you target players you want?
James Morton [NEW ORLEANS, LA]
A:
For starters, decide which players you think should be chosen and how much you think they’re worth. If there are 12 teams buying 20 players each, you should have 240 players, and their contracts should be worth a combined $1,200. That gets you off to a good start – it puts you in position at your auction to put together a team that’s better than average. (At the end of the draft, you’ll be able to go back and determine the “value” of each team, with an average team worth about $100, a poor team worth about $75 and the best teams worth maybe $135). Whether you spend early or hang back early will be dictated by the other owners – if they’re not spending, you’ll want to buy early. Usually, players tend to be overvalued in the early going. I suggest you also examine the rules of your league. Will there be a significant number of good free agents signed during the year? Will the most successful teams tend to be churning their rosters all year (because there’s plenty of available talent on the waiver wire)? If so, then you’ll want to be more aggressive in going after stars, figuring a bunch of the guy you buy are going to get released later anyway. As far as nominating, don’t forget your kickers and defenses. Probably 70-plus percent of the players at those positions will go for the $1 minimum. With that in mind, it makes sense to address those positions early. (If you’re the first to nominate a $1 defense, you might wind up with the Nos. 5-6 defenses on your board; if you’re the last, you’ll probably wind up with a pair outside your top 15). For custom auction values using our stat projections, click on the “Custom Cheat Sheet” feature on our website. There are two question-and-answer pages you’ll need to fill out. One (the “scoring profile”) addresses your league’s scoring system. The other (the “auction profile”) tells the computer how many players will be selected at each position.
Question 3:
I was wondering what you thought of TD-only formats. I realize that yardage leagues reward performance more accurately but I don’t think you get the same game-watching experience. I feel like in a TD league you are always completely aware of your game situation whereas with yardage leagues you are always behind constantly calculating scores. This makes for a more exhilarating experience when a player actually scores a TD in my opinion. Besides, the best players generally score the most touchdowns.
Kevin Witt [HAYMARKET, VA]
A:
Most leagues incorporate yards. But I have always had a soft spot for the TD-only format. I was introduced to fantasy football in the TD-only style, and that’s the scoring system we still use in the Daily Football League (now entering its 25th year). It’s a different animal. The goal-line specialist backs are viable players. I like that scores tend to hover around 30 points, which is closer to what you see in the real-life game. I like that with those kind of scores, there usually will be a couple of tied games. I like the whole numbers. And as you point out, it’s easier to track the action – entering the Monday Night game, everyone is available what scores are necessary by which individual players to swing the outcome of each game.
Question 4:
I’m in a keeper league where most of the good WRs are taken. I’m thinking about drafting and starting Smith and Nicks, NYG, virtually guaranteeing at least one does well each week. What do you think?
Chris Muschon [DEWITT, MI]
A:
Both of those guys are high on my board. I think they’ll be good players. I don’t consider either, however, to be a top-10 receiver.
Question 5:
When a team is lucky enough to be “plus 15” or “plus 20” in turnovers, the offense got a lot of extra scoring chances that could have inflated some stats. When they are “minus 10” the next season, those short scoring drives go away and the stats drop sharply. In contrast, some teams may get extra chances this year if they were “minus 15” or “minus 20” last year. Based on last year’s turnover stats, do you see any teams who might benefit or suffer from this dynamic in 2010?
DAVID GARRICK [Coronado, CA]
A:
It’s not all luck. We know the Bears (with Mike Martz as the offensive coordinator) will be plagued by interceptions and fumbles. We know that the Rams, Bucs, Lions, Bills and Browns will finish below-average in turnovers, and that other teams won’t throw many interceptions – Chargers, Packers, Colts, Patriots, Jaguars, Saints, Titans and Washington. And we can make some sense of the defenses as well. The Jets, Packers, 49ers and Eagles project to finish among the leaders in takeaways, while the Lions, Rams, Bucs, Jaguars and Kansas City should struggle in that category. With those trends in mind, I don’t we can operate under the assumption that all teams with skewed turnover ratios necessarily will change. The top 7 last year in turnover ratio, by the way, were the Packers, Eagles, Saints, Ravens, 49ers, Chargers and Broncos. The worst teams (all at least minus-8) were the Lions, Rams, Raiders, Cleveland, Washington, Miami and Seattle. Of all the teams I list, I am most confident that Washington will change. Donovan McNabb doesn’t throw many interceptions, and Mike Shanahan tends to put together quarterback-friendly schemes. I don’t think you’ll see that team dishing up a bunch of turnovers.
Question 6:
In the magazine, you say the Wildcat offense is going to be nothing more than an afterthought. I was wandering what the heck brought you to such a drastic conclusion. Just because they signed Marshall? Because Henne has more experience now? I say no way. Why would you scrap something that was working perfectly (up until Brown and the other back, I think it was Cobb got hurt) Cobb was the main cog in the Wildcat machine, and when he went down it limited their options. Then Brown’s injury forced the Dolphins to shelve it. I don’t see an NFL team doing away with a system as effective as the Wildcat was for the Dolphins, and certainly don’t see a Parcells team suddenly becoming reliant on the pass. Please convince me you weren’t coocoo for Cocoa Puffs when you said the Dolphins were ready to ditch the Wildcat. Even if it is gimmicky, it sure works. Really, Miami is the only team it was real effective with, and the rest of the league seemed to not get it.
JEFF FOSTER [CHICO, CA]
A:
Time will tell, but I don’t envision Miami using the Wildcat extensively. I think it’s a gimmick that’s in the process of playing its way out. The only teams that have used it extensively, notice, are the teams that aren’t good enough to move the ball conventionally – like the Browns late last year. The Dolphins aren’t that kind of team anymore. Chad Henne isn’t a deer-in-the-headlights quarterback anymore. And they traded for Brandon Marshall, who’s a franchise receiver. They also don’t have the same kind of depth at tailback. Ricky Williams is 33 years old, and Ronnie Brown is coming off a Lis Franc injury.
Question 7:
Partial keeper league, hypothetical scenario based on what I anticipate happening: I take a top-5 RB in the first round, and I have a keeper option for Beanie Wells with my third-round pick. In the bottom half of the second, I see a handful of RBs as the best values in that spot according to your trusty Fantasy Index Custom Auction Values. For argument’s sake, let’s say it is Benson, Mathews, and Moreno. Now, we do have a flex, but it is a QB/RB/WR/TE flex position, so I usually like to start a QB there. Would you a) take a RB and keep Wells, consequences be damned, b) take a RB and release Wells allowing you to pick another position in the 3rd, or c) “reach” for another position in the 2nd knowing you have Wells locked up? How soon is too soon to ignore the best player available philosophy and “reach” (albeit the “reach” would be minor, something like Calvin Johnson) to fill a need? I’ve been playing with these guys for 9 years, and I really feel based on history and how the keepers are stacked up that they will undervalue RBs this year. I’m not sure I want to end up with 3 RBs to start my draft.
L DALE GANDER [SUN PRAIRIE, WI]
A:
I’m not sure what the scoring system is, but when I see that quarterbacks are eligible to play as flex players, usually that’s the position to target. In that kind of a league – with a typical scoring system – I’m guessing that maybe 15 of the first 20 picks should be quarterbacks. Keep this in mind as well: receivers and quarterbacks are more likely to start 16 games than tailbacks. With that flex position kind of putting everyone on equal footing, that’s a factor to consider. So circling back, why are you saying that that our website is saying that running backs are the way to go in the second round? Maybe you don’t have it set up right. The key question, when configuring the website to calculate auction values, is defining how many players deserve to be purchased for more than the league minimum. If you’re in a 12-team league and can start double quarterbacks, my ballpark guess is that about 25 quarterbacks should go for more than $1 minimum in an auction. About 30 running backs and 28 receivers – about 36 if you start three rather than two.
Question 8:
Dynasty keeper trade question. Looking to dump salary for offseason QB. I will be losing Peyton Manning (was paying him $34 but could still re-sign him. Which QB would you go after: Manning, Brees, Romo, Rivers, Kolb, Palmer. Or I could also trade for Cutler ($13) signed through 2013 or Brady ($26) through 2012. Or go after one of the UFA QBs and pay somewhere between $18-30 for them. Also in the process of cutting salary, I have been offered this trade. B.Wells ($17 in 2010) R.Brown ($13 in 2010) and my 9th overall pick in the rookie draft for DeAngelo Williams ($12 in 2010).
Gary Wool [PHILADELPHIA, PA]
A:
In an auction, I don’t think you target players. You play for the value. So any of the quarterbacks you list might wind up being your starter. It just comes down to which one is the best deal. It looks like you’ve got them in a pretty good order already. Romo could be the guy; I don’t see him being far behind Manning and Brees, and I’ll get he goes a lot cheaper. I can’t answer the other question because I don’t know how the league works. You say that you have the 9th pick in a rookie draft, but the other guys are purchased in an auction? That doesn’t seem to make sense. My guess, though, is that it could be a deal worth doing. I’m guessing you won’t get a franchise-type prospect with the ninth pick of the draft, and DeAngelo Williams is a heck of a back (and cheaper than Wells or Brown).
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Question 1: Is there any way to...
Posted by Glenn Smith | Jul. 26 at 07:29 AM
incorporate bonus points in the custom scoring system cheat sheets? In our league running backs and receivers get a 7 point bonus for 100 yards. Quarterbacks get 7 bonus points for 250 yards passing. Glenn Smith
Question 3: I was wondering what you...
Posted by Glenn and Kim Storbeck | Jul. 25 at 02:42 PM
Northwest Fantasy Football League (I am one of 2 originals left, 185 career victories) also about to have draft #25. Reading FFIndex since about 1989. Also started as a TD league, but we also add for yards starting aroung 1990 - 3 for 100 yads rec/run, each additional 50 yards 2 points; 250 passing equals 3, 2 for every additional fifty. All long scores double. The issue I have with regular yardage leagues is the kickers do not matter, and they should - they actually score critical points, a much bigger contribution than yards in garbage time. We average about 41 points per game.
Question 7: Partial keeper league, hypothetical scenario...
Posted by Todd Weigel | Jul. 23 at 07:32 AM
I'm running a 12-14 team league and want to make QBs more valuable. But 2 QBs would be too risky, and QBs way outscore other flex candidates. By Fantasy Index's PPR Cheat Sheet (p. 37), QBs #13-24 score 16-21 points per game. The RBs and WRs outside their top 24's score 9-13 points per game. I think by changing from 1 pt/20 pass yds to 1/25, subtracting points for INTs, fumbles, and sacks, and tinkering with the scoring system a bit more, I can fix the discrepancy. Having the remaining QBs slightly outscore the remaining skill players would be fine. Starting 1QB/2RB/2WR plus 2 QB/RB/WR/TE would be interesting.
Question 7: Partial keeper league, hypothetical scenario...
Posted by Marco Tavares | Jul. 23 at 12:42 PM
What if its a 10 team league? I have been playing with the numbers on my profile, but can't get it setup correctly. How many should go above the minimum?
Question 7: Partial keeper league, hypothetical scenario...
Posted by Marco Tavares | Jul. 23 at 12:48 PM
We start 2QBs and to make the scoring fairer for RBs and Receivers we do 1 pt for every 25 yds passing. For RBs and WRs/TEs we award .1 pt for every yard rushed or received along with PPR. QB stays at 1 pt for every 10 yds rushing. So if you gain 89 yards on the ground you get 8.9 points rather than 8 pts if you are a rb/wr/te. It actually balances it out really well.