Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 13 at 04:06 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
I'm a long-time Bengals fan and after watching Carson Palmer against the Cowboys, it seems to me that there is still something not quite right with his arm. His passes looked the same way they did in the second half of last season – floating, lacking zip. What are your thoughts on this?
GREGG STEINBERG [JACKSONVILLE, FL]
A:
I just re-watched his throws. They didn’t seem unusual to me. The first time I watched the game, I didn’t notice anything about them. I will agree, however, that they didn’t jump out as having a lot of rpms. Occasionally, I’ll watch a quarterback and it will occur to me that the guy has a strong arm – the balls get there faster than with other quarterbacks. That definitely wasn’t the case here. And one or two of them seemed to have maybe gotten there a little slower than expected. But maybe that was just the way that he threw them. I will keep an eye on Palmer’s arm in the upcoming games. He certainly has plenty of talented pass catchers to work with.
Question 2:
Can you list the players that are in the final contract year?
DAN ISGRO [LAS VEGAS, NV]
A:
It’s a lengthy list, so I’m posting it as a separate item. Lots of big names on the list. At quarterback, you’ve got Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck. At running back, the biggest names are Cedric Benson, DeAngelo Williams, Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ronnie Brown, Joseph Addai, Pierre Thomas and Jerome Harrison. At wide receiver, there’s Miles Austin, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Sidney Rice, Vincent Jackson and Mike Sims-Walker. And at tight end, there’s Vernon Davis, Zach Miller and Owen Daniels.
Question 3:
I am in a dynasty league that keeps 10 players. I was considering trading Brees for Jay Cutler and the #3 overall pick in my draft. Would you do that? My guess is that Mathews will be gone but I will have my choice of Spiller or Dez Bryant with the 3rd pick. I would also have the #9 overall pick as well.
RYAN RENSHAW [WILLIAMSTOWN, NJ]
A:
I like the idea of picking up the No. 3 pick of the draft, but I’m not a Cutler fan. I don’t think Mike Martz’s offense will work in Chicago. There will be plenty of passing yards, at least in the beginning, but eventually there will be too many sacks, interceptions and losses. I envision that entire coaching staff getting flushed at the end of the year.
Question 4:
In a PPR league I am going very heavy on receivers. I am wondering if receptions are more consistent from year to year than TDs or yards?
DAVID DIGREGORIO [NORRISTOWN, PA]
A:
I believe that, in general, we can do a pretty good job of identifying the receivers who will catch 85-plus passes (and the yards go hand-in-hand with those catches). You don’t tend to see receivers come out of nowhere and put up those kind of numbers. Consider, for example, the pass catchers who caught 85-plus passes last year: Wes Welker, Steve Smith (NYG), Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Hines Ward and Roddy White. Of that group, only Smith was a surprise. I think your chances are better of unearthing a running back in the middle or later rounds who becomes an elite performer – like Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles and Rashard Mendenhall last year. This isn’t an absolute. Miles Austin was a damn good receiver last year, and he wasn’t even selected in most fantasy leagues. But in general, I think you see a lot more of those rags-to-riches players at running back, rather than at wide receiver. I think that’s because there are more injuries at the tailback position.
Question 5:
I'm in a PPR league where McCluster is listed as a running back. How do you rank him in this situation? I have visions of him catching 60 passes as a slot receiver and outscoring Shonn Greene in this format. Am I dreaming?
BILL REHOR [CULVER CITY, CA]
A:
I’m more pessimistic. Let me see McCluster do something on the field before I start getting too excited about him. Right now, I’m projecting that he’ll catch about 32 passes, finishing with about 430 total yards and scoring about 3 TDs. So, well short of Greene.
Question 6:
I'm in a 10-team league, 6 points for all touchdowns – runs, catches and passes. In this format do I go away from the standard rule of drafting RBs early, or do I go the way of drafting a QB in the first or second round? I also have the first pick in the draft.
Paul Davis [MINERAL CITY, OH]
A:
According to my numbers, there’s very little difference between Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. So you may want to entertain trade offers – see if you can move down a few spots and pick up extra draft picks. If I had the No. 1 pick, I’d probably go with a running back in the first round, then get a quarterback at the end of the second.
Question 7:
I am in a 12-team dynasty yardage league with TEs getting a bonus of 1 point per reception. I have been offered Jermichael Finley for Chad Ochocinco ... would you jump on this one?
David Jung [SAN FRANCISCO, CA]
A:
Definitely. Straight up, I think Finley will be the better player, and in your league he comes with the added benefit of getting 1 point for each reception. Plus Finley is younger. Easy call.
Question 8:
I'm in a 1/2-PPR two-keeper league that also includes the QB in the flex position. Where can I find a listing of top 200 players with 2QB options? I'm keeping 2 RBs and I anticipate that I can get Romo with my first pick. My question is regarding my second. I have a feeling I'll be choosing between Rivers, Favre, Moss and Fitzgerald with my 2nd pick. What position has more value?
Travis Billman [BUFORD, GA]
A:
With quarterbacks being eligible for the flex, you just want to look at total fantasy points. You’ll definitely select quarterbacks with both of your first two picks. Rivers, being young and eligible to protect in 2011, is the guy you want. If you want to look at our top 200 in that kind of a format, you can build that list using the CUSTOM CHEAT SHEET area of the website. It will take you 10 minutes to set up the preferences in the “Scoring Profile” and “Auction Profile” areas, then you’ll get a very precise list. (I’m aware you’re not in a salary cap league, but using the auction list allows you to measure the positions relative to each other).
Question 9:
I'm in a 12-team PPR league with the 8th pick. It’s looking like I will have to choose between Moss, Wayne, Turner, and have my choice at QB, (we only give 4 pts per TD pass) but I usually wait on QBs until a little later.
chris wagman [LINDENWOLD, NJ]
A:
It’s not an ideal drafting spot. I expect you’ll want a wide receiver there – they get the boost with the PPR format (while backs like Michael Turner and Shonn Greene are severely penalized). The best option is probably to trade down, maybe picking up an extra choice in the third or fourth round. Otherwise, I’d plan on selecting Brandon Marshall or Roddy White.
Question 10:
I have a question and a suggestion. Is it a bad idea to draft a top-5 QB & a top-2 TE at the expense of WR? I draft 2nd in a 12-team league and when I mock draft assuming the top 9 WRs are all gone by my second pick, I am able to come up with Peterson, Romo, Benson, & Finley in the first four rounds quite consistently or RB-RB-RB-Finley. If you spend rounds 5-9 drafting WRs is this a team you'd be happy with or should I reach for a WR in rounds 3 or 4? We start 1QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1D, 1K.) Also, I'm a big fan of your customized cheat sheet. I was wondering if it would be possible if you could add a sorting feature to list all of the players by their auction value or at least make the auction value cheat sheet a little more printer friendly so I can use this cheat sheet at my draft?
DAVID THEIN [CARPENTERSVILLE, IL]
A:
You’re starting three wide receivers, so it would be nice to select one at 2.09 or 3.02. But if that position has been picked over, then I think it makes sense to go in another direction. With TD passes being worth 6 points, I think it makes sense to select Tony Romo there. We are in the process of making some changes to the custom cheat sheets that will make them friendlier and easier to use.
Question 11:
Percy Harvin's headaches are becoming a major problem in fantasy circles. Even if Brett Favre plays this season, I'm inclined to let someone else draft Harvin and worry about whether he plays on a weekly basis. What do you think? Also, in the magazine you rated Adrian Peterson ahead of Chris Johnson, but now you have Johnson over Peterson. Why the change?
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
With the migraines situation and Favre potentially not coming back, I’m hoping somebody else selects Harvin. There’s a point, of course, where he becomes too good of a value to pass up, but that’s my plan. As for Johnson and Peterson, I see little difference between those guys. I moved Johnson ahead slightly when he showed up for training camp on time – I thought he might stay away until mid-August or later.
Question 12:
Based on reading Bill Simmons article this week I am thinking about using an auction for our league this year. Can you give me some pointers and a guide to use?
Bob Phipps [BELLE ISLE, FL]
A:
I’m of the school of thought that in an auction, you decide exactly what all of the players are worth. In a 12-team league with 20-man rosters, for example, who are the 240 players you would select? And can you put dollar figures on them adding up to exactly $1,200? To help in this regard, we’ve got stat projections that can be customized to exactly fit your league’s scoring system and salary cap setup. You need only click on “CUSTOM CHEAT SHEETS” on the top of the home page, then handle the setup by answering a few questions in the “Scoring Profile” and “Auction Profile” sections. Once you’ve got your price list prepared, it’s just a matter of showing up at your auction and see what players the other owners throw your way. In theory, every team should be worth about $100. But by buying carefully, you should be able to walk away from the auction with $140-plus worth of talent. I find it a lot easier to put together a dominant team in an auction than a draft.
Question 13:
Thanks for many years of service. I'm in a 14-team auction league that started in 1986. A unique twist to our league is we have to give the players a contract raise each year according to the value he was the previous year. A 1-year deal is $7, 2 years is $5 each year of the contract and 3-year deal costs $3 per year. My question is your thoughts on my keeper choices. I have B.Jacobs for 1 more year and A.Bradshaw will cost me about what he values according to the cheat sheet or I can sign S.Rice for about $10-15 cheaper than what he will go in the draft. I'm worried about his hip and Favre's question marks. As well as Bradshaw taking more carries, but leaning towards Rice for a 1-year deal.
STEVE PORTER [HAMPSTEAD, NH]
A:
I’d go Rice. In an auction, the name of the game is to stockpile players who can potentially outperform their contracts. Rice has a much better chance of doing this than Bradshaw (though since you have Jacobs, Bradshaw is a guy you may end up also buying in the auction proper).
Question 14:
I am in a 16-team league with standard scoring rules. I have pick 15 and am very interested in Michael Turner. I believe he may have better seasons than C. Johnson and A. Peterson. Obviously, he will not be there that late so I am considering putting something together to trade up to pick 3 or 4. Would swapping first rounders, fourth rounders, and giving him my 8th for his 10th be fair or giving up too much? I've never traded picks before so I'm not too sure on what is considered fair for myself and the person I'm trading with.
Joey Winn [VIRGINIA BEACH, VA]
A:
I like Turner. He’s a very good back; he showed that two years ago. And I also believe he’ll bounce back. But if you’re in a league that includes receiving production, keep in mind that he catches almost no passes. That limits him. And without knowing your exact scoring system, my guess is that moving up from 15th to 3rd will add about 20 fantasy points of value to your team. That’s equal to about the 60th pick overall. So a fair trade (one that doesn’t really hurt or help you) would be to trade picks 1.15 and 4.15 for the third pick of the draft.
Question 15:
I've been offered Sidney Rice for Vincent Jackson in a dynasty league. Questions abound. Any answers?
Mike McGraw [N CHELMSFORD, MA]
A:
I think they’re pretty similar in value. Jackson is more proven. Rice is 4 years young. Jackson seems to be in a better long-term situation – he’ll either be working with Philip Rivers, or he’ll be moved to a team where he’s their clear go-to receiver (the kind of guy who catches 85-plus balls a year). Jackson, though, also comes with a lot more off-field baggage. He’s been suspended for the first three games of this year, and maybe he just flames out of the league within 5 years.
Question 16:
I have a question regarding potential targets this year for keeper leagues. Besides the rookies I usually look for current backups to players in contract years or on their last legs. Our keepers aren't permanent, the round you keep them in is the round of the previous year divided by two so there are always prospects. Last year I got Mendenhall and Green this way. This year I figure Donald Brown is a good prospect. Can you think of others?
DANA DUFFIELD [ROCHESTER, MN]
A:
I’m with you on Brown. Maybe BenJarvus Green-Ellis of the Patriots in the last round; lots of old backs there. Bernard Scott of the Bengals. Javon Ringer of Tennessee. Tashard Choice of Dallas is too good to remain a No. 3 back for long. And all of this year’s second-round running backs – Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty and Toby Gerhart. I’ve got the contract-year players listed in another letter.
Question 17:
I am keeping Andre Johnson with my 1st round pick, Mike Turner with my 2nd. I am drafting in the 3rd round and keeping Ray Rice in the fifth. Do I keep Cedric Benson or Sidney Rice in my 4th round spot? Will Rice be as good if Favre does not return?
WYATT KLEIN [S MILWAUKEE, WI]
A:
Benson makes the most sense to me. If you were simply drafting from scratch, Benson would be selected before the fourth round. Sidney Rice would not. So I believe you take Benson. That will give you three high-profile running backs, but I don’t think you’ll have any problem finding another team interested in trading for one of those guys.
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Question 1: I'm a long-time Bengals fan...
Posted by Rick Cwik | Aug. 15 at 05:01 AM
Ian, the Bears never get much love from you. When we had Rex, you did not like him. Now we have Cutler and Martz and you don't like them. I'm starting to think even if we had Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Bill Walsh (all in their prime)...in a dome in Chicago...you still would not like them. Did you get dumped by some girl from Chicago at one time in your life and therefore hate the city?
Question 6: I'm in a 10-team league,...
Posted by John Evans | Aug. 13 at 06:21 AM
Here is some simple math for you to help determine whether or not it is worth it. I will use Brees and Ryan's TD totals as an example. Brees had 34 and Ryan had 22. If you multiple each of those numbers by 4 and also by 6 you will get these numbers: Brees- 4TDs: 136points 6TDs: 204points Diff: 68points Ryan- 4TDs: 88points 6TDs: 132points Diff: 44points This isn't rocket science. The QBs who throw lots of TDs separate themselves more by the points/TD increase. What goes into building a big board and comparing players from position a to player from position b is: 1) how does a player from a certain round compare to a player of the same position from a different round, and then compare the other positions in the same manner 2) league trends In my league...we play 6points/TD, but QBs generally don't go too early. So yeah the point differentials have to make sense, but so does playing to your league trends.
Question 12: Based on reading Bill Simmons...
Posted by Rick Cwik | Aug. 15 at 05:08 AM
I have asked this question in the past as well. I have been in an Auction for 5 years now, will never go back to a boring draft. Auctions are tough. I know about the money breakdown Ian speaks of but I want strategy tips. Like do you nominate guys you really want or want other owners to take? Do you like to spend early and get good players and fill the rest o your roster out with backup type players? Do you save your money and get bargains? Do you bid on players just to drive up the price...at the expense of maybe getting stuck with that player? Do you nominate kickers and tight ends early just so you can then later focus on your main positions (QB, RB, WR)?