Ian Allan's Mailbag
Posted Aug. 17 at 06:14 AM
Publisher Ian Allan fields your questions on strategy, how to run your league, player ratings -- and whatever else you think of. Updated every Friday during the season; Tuesdays and Fridays during the last two months of the preseason. You must be registered and signed-in to submit a mailbag question. After you sign in at the top of the page, the link to submit a mailbag question will become visible.
Question 1:
The injuries to Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch will help C.J. Spiller in the short term, no doubt. While this hurts Marshawn Lynch's trade value, I think that could actually hurt Spiller's value over the course of the season – by not trading Lynch, that leaves one more mouth to feed in the Buffalo backfield, even if it means 5 touches a game for Lynch. Am I crazy? Also, how does this affect the kick return situation in Buffalo? Who's going to return the kicks there?
ZACH LEAVITT [ENGLEWOOD, CO]
A:
I don’t think the injuries have a big impact on Spiller. He’s going to get his touches and fill his role. That will happen whether Jackson or Lynch is healthy. And Spiller is a smaller back, so there will be another back involved. That probably will be Lynch in the first couple of games. If both Lynch and Jackson are sidelined, maybe that will be Joique Bell – he looked pretty good to me in the first exhibition. When all of these backs are healthy, I wonder if Lynch will even be active for games? I don’t see him playing special teams. I think he could still be moved, particularly if the Bills like what they see out of Bell. As far as kick returns go, I’m moving Stiller down a little. On the team depth chart, they have him projecting to return punts but not kickoffs. But when Stiller scored 8 TDs on returns at Clemson, all but one of those were on kickoffs. Interestingly, the Bills (at least for now) aren’t projecting to use Roscoe Parrish on punt returns; he was awesome on those last year.
Question 2:
With all due respect, I think you're getting a little too carried away with Clinton Portis. Your yardage-and-TD rankings have him at No. 26 overall, and there's no way I'd spend a third-round pick on him. Yes, he may look good so far in camp, but a lot of players do at this time of year. Yes, Mike Shanahan drafted Portis in Denver, but he also traded him away. Portis is too far removed from his glory days to be a full-time fantasy starter. He'll wear down midway through the season or Shanahan will rotate his backs, or both. Shanny has frustrated us all with his use of running backs through the years. I'd much rather gamble on Beanie Wells or Jahvid Best in the third round than waste a high pick on a retread like Portis. I could be dead wrong, but I just don't see him being a fantasy factor.
Paul Owers [RIVIERA BEACH, FL]
A:
I’m not a big Portis fan. He’s definitely got some mileage on him. But I think you have to look at the overall landscape of the league. There simply aren’t a lot of good backs out there. And when you take that approach and start putting together the numbers, I think it works out to him being the No. 14 back on the board. At that point, we’re looking at guys like Wells, Best, Knowshon Moreno, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Ronnie Brown and Jonathan Stewart. I think Portis comes in ahead of those guys.
Question 3:
In light of what Jerome Harrison did last year I'm not seeing much love. Not from you, not nationally, nor in the mocks. James Davis is doing bupkis so his only competition is a rookie. Montario Hardesty. I've got him in a keeper league but not sure what to think.
DAVID STONER [LARGO, FL]
A:
I think Harrison is clearly the best back. There’s also a tendency, I think, to underrate smaller runners. I’ve looked into a few times, and I think those kind of backs – 200-205 pounders – do a much better job of staying healthy than those who weigh over 230. It’s just a lot safer eluding defenses, rather than trying to crash into them. My concern with Harrison is that I don’t think he’ll be used extensively. Eric Mangini is a fan of rotating his backs. I think they’ll work in other guys. They could use a goal-line specialist (Peyton Hillis?), and they’ve also used Josh Cribbs as a Wildcat quarterback around the goal line. But I will agree with your main point: Harrison is lasting too long in drafts.
Question 4:
Any thoughts on which teams are facing the weakest opponents during traditional fantasy playoff weeks (Weeks 14, 15 and 16)?
Richard Cooper [Norristown, PA]
A:
In terms of wins and losses, the easiest schedules project to belong to (in order) the Bucs, Dolphins, Saints, 49ers, Seahawks, Colts and Packers. The Bucs are No. 1 by a long shot, with their three opponents going a combined 11-37 last year. Hardest schedules: Giants, Eagles, Bears, Raiders and Panthers. In terms of points allowed, I’m seeing four teams at over 24 per game: Bucs, Packers, Colts and Kansas City. Four teams will play opponents that, on average, allowed under 19: Bears, Steelers, Browns, Cardinals.
Question 5:
Earlier, I would have guessed that Clinton Portis was about through (age and non-production/injuries last year), yet in your latest update you wrote about how he looks leaner and quicker and you moved him up in the rankings. How can you tell when a running back doesn't have it any more (Tomlinson, for example)? Also, how much stock do you put in preseason games?
Dave (MOJO) Smith [WALLS, MS]
A:
I’ll watch all of the preseason games. That’s my job – that’s what I get paid to do. They’re not great, but they allow me to see who’s working with the first-unit offenses, and they give me a glimpse of the players in a game-like setting. With running backs, I’m just looking for talent – can a guy break a tackle or make anybody miss? Does he have a burst? With Adrian Peterson a few years back, it was apparent from his first or second carry that he was going to be something special. He went screaming through a hole and up the right sideline, then delivered a blow to the defensive back as he was getting knocked out of bounds. In the case of Portis, he’s been declining in recent years, but he looked better last week. He’s lost some weight, and he looks a step faster. With an improved offensive line in front of him, I think he’ll be pretty good.
Question 6:
Most people seem to assume that Jamaal Charles getting primary carries in KC is an inevitability. I think many people are dismissing how stubborn head coaches can be and how often some coaches put their own egos ahead of winning. It just seems like some coaches have an axe to grind against certain players. Take the following for example: Todd Haley. He likely would've started Larry Johnson all year if not for Twittergate despite clearly more explosiveness from Charles in ’08 and ’09. He seems to have a personal grudge against Charles. John Fox. More loyalty than ego, but Jake Delhomme pretty much sums it up. Eric Mangini. Stuck with Jamal Lewis beyond reason and still kept trying to plug Jennings in there until Harrison exploded. Jeff Fisher. I'm not a Vince Young fan but they make the playoffs if he started Young. Basically, do you agree that the above coaches will NOT play the most talented players to serve whatever personal agenda that they have? Doesn't that bode poorly for Charles, Michael Bush and Jerome Harrison in particular?
sean chi [san jose, CA]
A:
Are coaches wrong at times? Definitely. With John Fox, recall, he hung in there with DeShaun Foster for all of 2007, even while DeAngelo Williams was averaging 5.0 yards per carry off the bench. But it’s harder to prove, I think, that such decision making is intentional. I think they’re trying to run their teams as best they can; they’re trying to win games and put the best guys on the field. They do not, however, have the luxury of being able to shuffle guys in and out of the lineup with cost. They’re not running fantasy teams. When they make a lineup change, they’ve got to factor in the psychological impact to the player and the team. They’ve got to deal with divided locker rooms and explosive personalities. If, for example, Brad Childress decides to bench Adrian Peterson for a game because of fumbling issues, what will Peterson’s attitude be when he returns? Maybe he starts mailing it in. And how will the owner and fans react? It’s hard. As for the players you mention, I think Charles will be adversely affected by Thomas Jones. Bush and Harrison, I think, will get enough touches that they’re probably underrated in fantasy drafts right now.
Question 7:
I know you rate Romo very high, but is he that much better than Schaub, Brady and Rivers?
Bill Petilli [Larchmont, NY]
A:
I think he is. Those other guys are good quarterbacks, of course, but I have Romo more up there with Brees and Manning. I think he’ll be very good in that offense. With Rivers, you’ve got the Vincent Jackson situation, which I think is significant. Schaub has had injury issues. Brady has older receivers and was very ordinary last year outside of that one stat-buster game against an injury-riddled Tennessee secondary.
Question 8:
Aren't most leagues lumping kick returns in with special teams instead of defense?
alex snow [cleve, OH]
A:
It is my belief that most leagues have all of the defensive and special teams stuff together – you get the Eagles, for example, and you get points whenever that team recovers a fumble, sacks a quarterback or returns a punt or kickoff for a touchdown. But regardless, we’ve got our projections set up so you can do it either way. If you want to have defenses and special teams separate, you have that option at the “Custom Cheat Sheet” portion of our website.
Question 9:
I have an observation regarding the advice you often give regarding draft pick swaps. Many times you will make a recommendation such as trading down to acquire extra picks, say trading pick 1.05 for pick 1.10 plus pick 3.10. In every league in which I have ever played, roster sizes are completely inflexible, say, 16 slots for each team. Making a trade as you suggest is simply impossible to construct, since it would leave one team with 17 players and the second with only 15. Maybe I'm missing something, or maybe you play in leagues that allow for such things to occur, but in my many years of experience, I have seriously never seen it allowed. I would suggest that you advise transactions that maintain roster balance, such as trading 1.05 and 16.08 for 1.10 and 3.10.
CHRIS BIELIK [BEACON FALLS, CT]
A:
Definitely. Whenever I speak of potentially trading down, it’s with the assumption that there will be late-round picks included to satisfy the requirements of the league. I often don’t mention those draft choices because they aren’t significant. The players you’re picking down there often wind up getting replaced by waiver pickups in mid-September.
Question 10:
In a standard 12-team league where we start 2 WR and 2 RB, no flex ... which three of these would you keep: Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams, Cedric Benson or Reggie Wayne?
Geoff Maleman [LOS ANGELES, CA]
A:
Jones-Drew is the No. 1; no doubt about that. For the No. 2 spot, I think it’s either Williams or Benson; not much difference between those two.
Question 11:
I'm picking 4th in a 16-team TD only (pass/rush/rec 6pts) league. Judging by the mag, I'm looking at C.Johnson, A.Peterson, D.Brees, or P.Manning. Under our scoring system, who'd be the best of those and would it be crazy to look elsewhere?
Ronald Fabri [JESSUP, PA]
A:
I think those are the guys you’re looking at. Quarterbacks tend to get awfully valuable when you move touchdown passes up to 6 points. If you decide you want to wait until the end of the second round to select a quarterback, then Michael Turner could become the player to target at 1.04. A trade down is also something that’s always worth looking into. If you can move down 4-6 spots and pick up and extra third- or fourth-round pick, that would be awfully tempting.
Question 12:
I am in a 12-man PPR league and we are able to keep one player drafted after the 5th round. My only option is Joe Flacco or not keep anyone. I have the 8th pick in the draft. Do I consider Flacco my #1 QB, and if so, take a WR or RB with #8? Or do I pick up a top QB with #8 and not get a RB or WR until #17?
Joe Semro [CARY, IL]
A:
I think Flacco has a good chance to be a top-10 quarterback this year. I would keep him, select a RB or WR at No. 8, then probably add another one of the top dozen quarterbacks in the later rounds.
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Question 1: The injuries to Fred Jackson...
Posted by David Grace | Aug. 18 at 04:09 PM
How can you say there isn't much difference between Williams and Benson?! There may not be much difference in their expected performance, but there is a huge difference in their upside. Benson's upside is basically his expected performance. Williams upside could land him in the top 3 RBs if Stewart were to get hurt. Williams is the guy to keep.
Question 2: With all due respect, I...
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Aug. 17 at 07:13 AM
Paul - You have to keep in mind that the rankings are statistical-based, not necessarily how you should approach a draft. As Ian's own drafts have shown, as recapped here, he hasn't felt the need to use a 3rd-round pick on Portis. But his projected numbers for Portis this year indicate that only 13 RBs will finish with better total numbers. I think he's made this point before regarding quarterbacks (e.g., the rankings include 4 QBs in the top 14 overall). The rankings should be used in a draft in combination with an assessment of how the other owners might reasonably view the same players. Just like with Tony Romo, Portis can be had in most drafts later than the rankings suggest. In my drafts I've found that Jabar Gaffney, in particular, can be taken several rounds later than the rankings suggest. For whatever reason, people aren't recognizing that Gaffney should be the No. 1 guy in Denver this year, and I guess they're not buying that Portis will be Washington's No. 1 back, either.
Question 2: With all due respect, I...
Posted by Paul Owers | Aug. 18 at 03:15 AM
Thanks for the clarification, Andy. Makes sense. If Portis were available in the sixth or seventh round, I'd have to consider taking him. But I have my doubts that only 13 RBs will outperform Portis this year. I just don't see him suddenly having a breakout season, particularly with Larry Johnson and Ryan Torain around to spell him.
Question 2: With all due respect, I...
Posted by Eugene Hitt | Aug. 17 at 01:39 PM
Did I just read that? Portis over Ronnie, Beanie, J.Charles and the daily Show?!? What exactly is your projection for Portis then? At least half of the guys you mentioned are gonna go over 1000 and 10 this year, Portis doesn't seem like he's got that potential.
Question 10: In a standard 12-team league...
Posted by David Grace | Aug. 18 at 04:10 PM
How can you say there isn't much difference between Williams and Benson?! There may not be much difference in their expected performance, but there is a huge difference in their upside. Benson's upside is basically his expected performance. Williams upside could land him in the top 3 RBs if Stewart were to get hurt. Williams is the guy to keep.
Question 10: In a standard 12-team league...
Posted by ROBERT JOHNSON | Aug. 22 at 01:21 AM
Ian, you and your staff are the BEST! I would like to respectfully point out that in formats such as my league (both distance and PPR), DeAngelo Williams carries a real premium - primarily because of his long distance scoring capabilities. I have relied on your custom cheat sheets for years to help me dominate my league (7 championships in 20 years, with another 6 championship game losses -- hey, it's only one game!), and DeAngelo is reliably ranked as the #6 RB (MJD is ranked #4, so he and DeAngelo are almost equals in our league scoring system, while Cedric is ranked #20). I would recommend that everyone go to the trouble of at least checking out their scoring system on the custom cheat sheet to see if it varies significantly from the FFI published lists -- you may be surprised! And if you are, go with the custom sheet -- it will probably provide you a real, reliable edge over your league opponents.